CG1 Blue

I agree with a lot of what you say, but by not putting balanced arguments/stats/predictions out there we end up with people in dire states of mental health and even more division in society.

And my point is that you cannot dismiss the possibility that some people in the medical profession, in politics and in the media will benefit from a prolonged pandemic and may put biased views out there. When listed companies have the potential to make trillions over the coming years, you cannot rule out corruption. You could say the same for Thailand with the fortunes being made from ASQ etc. I don't have a conspiracy theory, I just like to keep an open mind. And I am not naive enough to think NOBODY is taking advantage of the situation.

There are plenty of examples if you do a quick search. Here's one good summary: 'As recently as October, SAGE was reported to have predicted 7000 hospital admissions a day, a scenario which didn’t come close to materialising; in fact, admissions barely topped 1000. Professor Medley explained that the models produced by SAGE were “not predictions”; rather than models produced for a broad range of eventualities, their remit was far more limited. Policymakers discuss ‘with modellers what they need to inform their policy’ and models are created on the back of such discussions. Therefore, models are produced to ‘support a decision’ made by policymakers, rather than on the likelihood or plausibility of an event.' https://unherd.com/thepost/sages-doomsday-predictions-are-damaging-public-trust/ Media outlets then latch onto these wild predictions and use them in alarmist headlines. That must do a a lot of harm (which is explained quite well in that article). Dr Manoon's comments give some welcome balance IMO.

I'm sure most medical experts are giving their honest opinions and analysis. Doctors always err on the side of caution. I mean, if doctors ran the world nobody would be allowed to drink alcohol, smoke, eat bacon/butter/chocolate etc. etc. But I think it's a bit naive to say NOBODY is overblowing the pandemic for the benefit of big pharma. Or was that a joke?

Yep. They also did the modelling for Omicron using the assumption that Omicron would be as virulent / deadly as Delta, even though data from South Africa suggested otherwise. SAGE should be giving us 3 models: 1. Worst case 2. Likely case based on info so far 3. Best case Hopefully Dr Manoon and others can help to provide some balance.

Sounds plausible. I hope he doesn't pay a price for his plain speaking. There is a lot at stake if the pandemic peters out too quickly.

I think you're missing the point. The heading says 'sort' but the word should be 'sought'. And I agree with the above. Difficult and risky (potentially very expensive) entry requirements, plus taking away all the fun things has killed Thai tourism for the time being.

The relevance here is on the global picture, and because the UK is ahead of he curve compared to most countries (including Thailand), it's useful to know the trend in the UK. The panic in Thailand (and other countries) over Omicron may not be justified. The decimation of tourism in Thailand may be made worse if misinformation is being dished out. Number of deaths in the UK is down week on week by 10%: No signs of daily deaths rising There were 332 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported on Thursday, but that figure included a backlog of deaths in England that occurred over the Christmas period. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 A glimmer of hope for Thailand's crushed economy, fingers crossed.

You say "Highest deaths since March" Not true. Always check the details. On 30th Dec they included a lot of unrecorded deaths for the period 24th-30th Dec. In fact: 'Between 24 December 2021 and 30 December 2021, there have been 701 deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test. This shows a decrease of -10.6% compared to the previous 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/easy_read

Looks like it's more like 8,000 currently. although no increase is good news. Some interesting charts here, with the number of patients needing mechanical ventilation dropping off. Hopefully this bodes well for Thailand and the ROW. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_in_mechanical_ventilation_beds https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Thanks. So probably 20-30% are not being admitted for Covid. Some positive signs there too. Infection rates have been high for a few weeks now, yet hospitals are coping. Difficult to use the UK as a barometer though, because we have a 'winter NHS crisis' every year.

What do you suggest Thailand should have replaced tourism revenue with?

Not denying that hospitalisations are creeping up (as they always do at this time of year), but as I understand it a good proportion of those in hospital with Covid were admitted for other ailments but tested positive / caught Covid in the hospital. For those people it's not Omicron that hospitalised them.

You're probably right. Thankfully there's no sign of a similar catastrophe at the moment, probably because a lot of people are vaccinated plus Omicron has less severe symptoms.

Not quite sure what your point is here. Are you saying you think airline pilots should be tested for all Coronavirus illnesses, including colds?

No proof then?

Any proof of that? That thousands are dying worldwide of the Omicron variant?

Do people die by the thousands of the omicron variant?

That's a fair point, but firstly I keep hearing that a good percentage of patients in hospitals with Covid actually caught Covid while in the hospital. So it seems almost impossible to stop the spread inside hospitals. And secondly, hospital staff dealing with vulnerable patients will presumably be wearing medical grade masks, shields etc., as they would to stop any type of contamination. But I appreciate it would be a big call to start treating Omicron like any other transmissible disease at this stage.

But the staff are not 'sick' are they. They have tested positive for a seemingly mild Coronavirus, and the vast majority are asymptomatic. We'd have had staff shortages every year if we were testing and isolating for all Coronaviruses.

Do we publish the number of people with chest colds each day?

So thousands of key workers are sitting at home for 7 days with no symptoms causing staff shortages. It will surely come to a point where those staff are allowed to continue working (wearing medical grade masks etc), now that Omicron is proven to be no worse than a heavy cold.

I was listening to an epidemiologist the other day and he explained that in fact previous infection from Covid gives long term protection from severe illness if you were to catch it again. (something to do with T cells I think?). He said the idea of the boosters is to cut infection rates. I wish I could find a link or remember his name.

Omicron will spread everywhere, masks or no masks.

Agreed, interesting. I do feel sorry for the Welsh. I heard one commentator calling their First Minister 'Kim Jong Drakeford' yesterday.