JBChiangRai

Have you thought about an EV? I would be interested in why you discounted one.

I think the base L07 is better than the base Seal, but it the Seal has higher spec'd models available. The base Seal is now 100k cheaper, so Deepal may slash their price soon too.

Is anyone else having the issue on a Seal Performance, if you floor the throttle at low speed, it stutters a couple of times as it's feeding the power in? It could be traction/stability control, but I am not sure.

There are 2 facts here. There are excess deaths & white, rubbery, fibrous, amyloid plaque like deposits are being found in the living, cadavers and in some cases they are the cause of death. Excess deaths in 2022 among worst in 50 years - BBC News COVID-19: Amyloids could explain blood clots, neurological symptoms (medicalnewstoday.com) The mistake the doctor who posted about them made was linking them to mRNA vaccines. The mistake the doctor who denies they were unusual made was mistaking them for something non-fibrous and non-amyloid plaque like. Sedimentary deposits after death are not going to be fibrous and amyloid plaque like, there is no blood flow to grow the fibrous, amyloid plaque like white something and it's far too large to be deposited without the circulatory system running. There is a temporal link to SARS-Cov-2, but lots of research needs to be done before you can say it's linked to mRNA vaccine or anything else. Jumping the gun and saying it's linked to mRNA vaccines is just going to get the medical professionals backs up and put them in defensive mode, like the Chula doctor here. Dr. John Campbell is correct, this is a recent phenomenon and we need to get to the bottom of it.

I think this is a false flag operation. i’m not saying the war will start because of this, but this kind of tactic is what will start the war, China will have some excuse like this to justify their military intervention.

When I try to understand Thai government decisions, I usually try to work out what would be the most morally bankrupt choice, and that is usually what they have chosen.

If you go the Chiang Rai Expat Club on the 28th February, you will hear an analysis given by a company here in Chiang Rai who are monitoring & documenting the situation with a network of people in Myanmar Burma. PM me if you want more details.

Those with disposable income are going to love high performance BEV pickups. Expect all kinds of tacky accessories, maybe flame decals and furry dice will return together with sunshade strips at the front saying "SOMCHAI" on the drivers side and a Velcro’d area for his wife, gig, meeanoi or whoever else is in it that day. I think we can subdivide the workhorse pickups into two sub-categories, those that are used around town and don’t cover more than 2-300km per day and those working the fields or doing large mileages. The former are likely to go BEV because they are so much cheaper than the ICE equivalent per km. The latter maybe not so much, time will tell. Then we have the really poor pickup drivers whose trucks are already over 25 years. They won’t be going BEV anytime soon, unless they win the lottery. There are a few BEV’s where the last 20% of the battery can be reported less than accurately. I think it’s a mixture of poor software and BMS not functioning correctly, often caused by users not following the manufacturer’s instructions on charging. BYD ask you to discharge below 10% once every 6 months, and fully charged once a week. It’s mostly for the BMS to be kept accurate (I think).

Tesla’s Cybertruck can’t be anything other than a failure. They can’t be sold in the EU or UK because they don’t meet type approval because the steel is too thick and rigid. Equally, they are too difficult to make and Tesla can’t ramp up production. The other issue is how do you repair them. Suppose you have a shunt and you have a dent, you’re screwed, or worse, the chassis is damaged. I see them as rich men’s toys, they don’t even handle well on rough ground. The Rivian on the other hand is a good product, but likely to be decimated by BYD.

Batteries are expected to last longer than the car, I think replacing batteries is a non issue. I don’t know how much electricity is used to make the battery, and I don’t think it’s relevant. Most consumers don’t care either, they want the best solution for themselves. It’s why IMHO the planet is doomed to exceed global warming targets and we may well be extinct in the next 500 years. As for recycling the batteries, they have a massive content of Lithium compared to mining Lithium, recycling will be a big business. But not for 20 years as they will probably not be failing before then.

And I don’t care two hoots if Toyota’s shareholders disagree with my opinions either. I stand by my analysis. I don’t have a horse in this race and I’m not pushing my opinion on any consumers. Toyota’s horse is having an increasing number of legs cut off it over the next 11 years and the replacement foal is not out of the womb yet. I don’t think we will see 100% growth in EV’s this year either but I do think 50% is probable. I read about BYD’s pickup too, it’s going to be very interesting to see what happens when BEV pickups are available.

Underground Hydrogen is known as "White Hydrogen". We have known of its existence for many years, but it's currently impossible to obtain it economically. That may change, but probably not in my lifetime. The other issue is it usually coexists with Methane, what do you do with that? burn it?

When I said "some other HydroCarbon" I was referring to something other that what is used now, i.e. fossil fuel HydroCarbons, Ammonia is of course NH3 and contains no carbon. I don't agree with Akio Toyoda's statement that their profits prove he is right about slowing demand. They have invested pitifully in BEV's and their profits come from things they can't sell in 11 years. Demand for BEV's is only slowing from legacy manufacturers, it's going through the roof with China's EV's. Akio Toyoda said nobody would buy EV's..... He was wrong Akio Toyoda said demand would peter out at 30%..... He is already wrong in Norway, I think he will be wrong in Thailand this year too. I think the man is a dinosaur. Yes I agree pickup sales are huge here and we don't have a BEV pickup here yet, I think BYD are bringing one here at the end of the year. I can't see any reason why they should be any less successful with pickups than with their cars.

I agree batteries are not the solution for trucks or airplanes, I suspect Hydrogen isn't either. Maybe Ammonia or some other ecologically produced HydroCarbon that can be burned in a jet engine. Weight is not an issue for any BEV owner currently. I am rather hoping that existing multistorey car parks will have wider bays in the future. I see weight as a non issue. I don't think we can say Hydrogen Fuel Cell cars are the superior technology because of the problem with generating the Hydrogen and getting it to the car. We can't make it as cheap and that's the major issue. I agree it is more elegant and ecologically sound. It's just too inconvenient and too expensive and those are insurmountable hurdles. I am not sure Hydrogen succeeding BEV is inevitable. ultimately the cost of making batteries is going to plummet because we will be recycling old ones instead of processing tens of tons of earth in faraway places. Given a perfect infrastructure for Hydrogen distribution today, I would still choose a BEV for convenience, I like the way they drive. It's great not to have go to the petrol station every week.

I agree with you that BEV and Hydrogen Fuel Cell cars are both fueled by batteries. I see it as a bit like Betamax and VHS. The adoption rate of BEV's is unstoppable, on top of that, it is also the better technology whereas Betamax was the better technology, but Sony owned it and wanted expensive licences for third parties to use it and Philips who owned VHS said you can use it for free. I think BEV's are unstoppable. Yes they carry around a lot of weight, but that doesn't seem to be a problem and leads to them feeling more solid and driving better. The power grid could be an issue but I am confident they are not just sitting there twiddling their thumbs. They know what is happening and they are addressing it in an incremental fashion. It's not as if BEV's are a sub-standard solution. You can ask drivers of them what they think and they are generally over the moon. Hydrogen is coming from so far behind, I don't see their being much choice available within the next 11 years when in a lot of countries ICE cars will no longer be sold, nor will there be an infrastructure of filling stations. I think Hydrogen has already lost the race.

Anything that reduces volumetric and pressure requirements on storing Hydrogen is going to be very welcome. That study recognised the major use is going to be public service vehicles and heavy trucks. Consumers are always going to prefer BEV's because mass adoption has already started with an ever increasing choice of models and only a shortage of refined Lithium will lead to BEV's rocketing in price and people will then buy the cheaper Hydrogen cars and put up with the much more expensive running costs. The way battery technology is developing, I am failing to see any disadvantages with BEV's in the future. Hydrogen cars have been available for a few years, people are not buying them. There is no demand.

I think there was a mistake in that article, it shouldn't have said Nitrogen it should have said NOx

I don't think there will be any disadvantages with BEV's in a few years. Refueling will take 5 minutes, they will be cost competitive. I am failing to see any disadvantages once we have mainstream adoption. It's only commercial trucks that are going to be an issue.

As I said, the major producers of Lithium have already been locked down, and that happened years ago, what they are doing now is probably going to be too little, too late and too expensive. I think major legacy automakers were caught with their pants down. I don't think they are spending loads of money looking at alternatives, only enough money to look good and try and persuade people BEV's will not be here long term. First, we had Toyota's Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell car, now they have funded an Ammonia fueled car, both of these are loose change investments and the Hydrogen investment is worth it because we will see some Hydrogen vehicles. BEV's have batteries no higher than 4" in the BYD, they are placed low down and don't intrude on cabin space at all, they contribute to a low center of gravity and stiffen the chassis. Hydrogen cars have a major issue, the tanks are huge and take away a large part of the interior space. The center console in the Toyota Mirai is massive to hide one of the 3 tanks, the rear seat, according to road testers, is unsuitable for adults who are sitting directly on top of it, there is another tank in the boot. Initially, it was just Tesla and the legacy automakers didn't understand the technology, they dismissed the Tesla Roadster as a fad, when the model S arrived they looked at it and when the model 3 arrived, they understood the danger and deconstructed the technology and planned their own. As they moved forward they found batteries are available from 2 companies at scale, CATL and BYD, you can read that as Tesla & China, or more accurately China/Tesla and China. It's certainly going to take years to ramp up and achieve economies of scale. In the interim, they either make BEV's and lose money buying other people's batteries (Toyota buy BYD batteries, so does Mercedes), or they plan for the future, trying to slow down the world going BEV and you do that by in saying BEV's are not the solution, the solution is Hydrogen, Ammonia, Water Engines etc etc. Most of this FUD is sponsored by Toyota. I believe most legacy makers are facing an existential crisis and they know it. Ford & GM can't sell their EV's for one simple reason. It's not that they are no good, they are fine cars. The problem is price. To compete with Chinese EV's they would probably lose tens of thousands of dollars on each car. Not even Tesla with it's plant in China can compete with BYD because Tesla buy in batteries, semiconductors, seats, plastics etc whilst BYD make their own, even their semiconductors and BEV's are chock full of semiconductors. Look at Thailand, Ford Mustang Mach E didn't sell well here, the Toyota bZ4x doesn't sell either, it took Chinese EV manufacturers with their competitive products to get the ball rolling. In Thailand BEV's are already cost competitive with their petrol equivalents the Neta V is cheaper, bigger and more powerful than the Mitsubishi Mirage. The BYD Seal is cheaper and more powerful than equivalent Toyota Camry/Honda Accord models, this is going to continue with more models coming to market. EV's are not a fad in Thailand, they are already mainstream. Mr. Toyoda said BEV's would fail and the future was Hydrogen, he said that almost 10 years ago, he was wrong and he was ousted as CEO because of it. He said recently BEV's will never exceed 30% of new sales. I think by December this year we will be hitting 30% of new sales in Thailand. It's happened before, in Norway 80% of new sales are BEV's. There is no disaster, no doom & gloom, they buy them and they love them. If there is enough Lithium available, then EV's are the future, if there is insufficient Lithium then we will see Hydrogen cars sold alongside BEV's and those that can afford them will buy BEV, those that can't will buy Hydrogen for the simple reason the BEV is 5 times cheaper per km and there is no wasted time filling up with Hydrogen every week.

I think ammonia powered cars won't take off. It's better to run a mixture of ammonia and hydrogen (or petrol), I am more interested in what GAC Group aren't saying, is it running on 100% ammonia? Every time I hear of an alternative to BEV's, Toyota is involved somewhere. Toyota's involvement with GAC and this car further fits with my assessment that they are trying to obfuscate the fact that EV's are going mainstream and trying to spread FUD, typically, this or that solution is round the corner, the reality is it isn't and Toyota and the other legacy manufacturers are scrabbling around to source Lithium. Tesla & China have already locked down all the major producers of Lithium. This highlights some of the issues, When it does burn, it is a carbon-free emission and produces zero CO2, zero hydrocarbons, and zero soot. Don't celebrate yet, without an engine using a high compression ratio or boost, it does release a lot of nitrogen into the atmosphere which leads to ammonia and ozone being made in the atmosphere which can lead to acid rain and impair our ability to breathe. That's why we're rather doubtful that this is a meaningful development. As BloombergNEF's head of transport and automotive analysis, Colin McKerracher, stated, "Ammonia is hellish to handle, I can't see it taking off in passenger cars." With its toxicity issues, there just isn't an infrastructure that exists to even fuel these engines. Even though hydrogen has a tougher time when compared to the EV charging infrastructure network, it would potentially be far better to use ammonia in hydrogen production rather than use as a combustible fuel for ICE vehicles. China’s GAC Introduces New Car Engine That Runs On Toxic Ammonia (motortrend.com) So the issue here is an extra step over producing just Hydrogen, producing hydrogen then turning it into ammonia, even less efficient than hydrogen cars which is less efficient than BEV's.

There are issues with Ammonia currently, it’s not ready for use in transport. It’s also extremely toxic to humans and corrosive to humans, metals and plastics. I am sure @Lacessitwill have something to say on this.

Yes I was aware, Physics was my best subject at school, my father was a Physics teacher. I agree on your assessment about the room for both Hydrogen and BEV's, the BEV's will be the more desirable and hence the more expensive.

Toyota, GM, Ford and others are left with little choice other than to bet on non-Lithium based solutions, because they don't have any Lithium and the only people who could sell it to them want their own auto manufacturers to win the EV race so will price it accordingly. I am sure efficiency of fuel cells will continue to improve but the laws of physics means a BEV will always be cheaper per km as it cuts out many of the intermediate stages. Unless we can find a scalable way to produce Hydrogen without using electricity. I believe there is a place for Hydrogen Fuel Cell cars alongside BEV's, but they will have to be priced cheaper and they won't have the same performance capability, we are unlikely to see high-performance Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars. I think they may also be more popular in some very cold climates, not only because they behave better but the fuel cell produces waste heat which can heat the cabin.

I wasn't considering the cost of a Hydrogen Fuel Cell compared with the cost of a Storage Battery. I have no idea of the difference in cost, but I do understand the cost per km of running them. It could well be that you can make a Fuel Cell car for 200,000 baht less than the equivalent BEV car, in which case consumers will buy it if it's priced accordingly. I agree Hydrogen is an elegant greener solution, it's just it's both impractical and expensive. True, but it's not accessible. The best source of Hydrogen for us on planet Earth is water, and 4/5 of our land surface is covered by it. It's just that the Hydrogen is bonded, very strongly to Oxygen and it's expensive to split it off, compress it, pump it into tankers and drive those tankers to fueling stations and pump it into tanks and then pump it again into cars.

I think a lot of that is coming. Batteries will go solid state, they will charge in 5-10 minutes, they will have a lot more cycles. What effect do you think the H2 Fuel Cell car costing (let's be optimistic) 3 times more per km will have on demand? Let's assume the average distance driven per year is 10,000km. The H2 car is going to cost between 20,000 and 40,000 baht more per year to fuel (3-5 times less efficient). If Toyota made a Mirai in both BEV and H2 Fuel Cell form, how much cheaper would the H2 car have to be at purchase time? Worst case scenario, they tax H2 with road fuel tax, it's now 7 times more expensive per km, and that annual figure goes up to 60,000 baht per year. On a 5 year ownership model, the H2 car needs to be 300,000 baht cheaper than the BEV version. Realistically, I think H2 cars probably needs to be 150-200,000 baht cheaper than their BEV equivalents and I think that is coming.