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Everything posted by Cabradelmar
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Quick Analysis: With Pita Gone, What Happens Next?
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News Headlines
Unfortunately, Pita's political future is entirely in the hands of the CC... they could make him a non-factor for 20 years if he is found to have willfully and knowingly engaged in politics while owning shares in a media company. His long term fate with not be know for months. -
I admire their resolve... however, it is, as the saying goes, "a day late and a dollar short"... Thai people failed to pay attention (in the moment when it matter) when the Junta's constitution was drafted and put in front of the monarchy for acceptance, that it was designed to keep military control over Thai politics and it's people for the foreseeable future.
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Pita does not stand a chance... even "if" the full assembly seats him as PM (that's a big if), he will be ousted by this EC/CC conspired iTV shares situation. Sadly, they have a good case against him. The shares are in a media company (it makes no difference if the company is currently not operating). The company clearly still has assets as the shares are worth nearly $3,000. Pita's own carelessness could ultimately be his undoing.
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I was simply exaggerating (tongue in cheek) the fact that this particular election was "nonbinding" seeing as it was held to elect representatives to a body that does not (sadly) have any real power (i.e., the lower house), because the real power to choose a PM is with the appointed senate (i.e., upper house). The Junta designed the constitution to that very end. Only a super majority (376/500 or 75%) in the lower house can overcome the shackles. The Generals knew what they where doing... the electorate is far to fractured to ever achieve a super majority. Hence, the upper house will likely always get the final say.
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I knew once I saw Prayut make his announcement that he was retiring from politics, that the timing was simply clearing the path for Prawit. They are going to let Pita self destruct, and then make their move. Unless the Phu Thai Party can step up to reconstitute a majority coalition government, with them at the helm, the truly unthinkable will occur... The assembly will seat a minority coalition government.
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They are spitting into the wind... To change the constitution, the proposal needs to be voted on by the entire 750 seat assembly. They need a simple majority (376 of 750) to change the constitution, but they can't even get a simple majority to seat Pita as PM. Not to mention a change in the constitution (if approved by majority vote of the assembly) needs to be voted on by the Thai people, and there is no guarantee it could pass that vote (many people will simply see it as a way to undermine the monarchy). I like Pita, but he is a political novice, and it shows. His advisors are doing him no good. He failed to understand that he has no mandate (he only garnered 151/30% of the MPs from the May referendum), he also failed to understand the emotions tired to sec.112, and he was careless in his preparation (not divesting iTV). The power structure is going to crush him... if not now, then eventually when the EC disqualifies him, or the constitutional court rules on the now open case against that he disrespected the monarchy with his sec.112 position. If he wanted to save his political life he should have backed down from sec.112. He could have then championed all his other initiatives/causes while PM. Now he is likely to end up with nothing, and the country stifled.
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Thailand: Pita’s loss is Thaksin’s gain
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News Headlines
Srettha Thavisin is better than Prawit... and that's who Thailand end up with if not careful -
Sadly, this man will never be prime minister. He was out flanked and outwitted by the generals. He's carelessness with his iTV shares was always going to bring him down (when the power structure so decided they needed to bring him down). He does the country no good by not being seated. And here we are. He should have been better prepared (divesting of iTV) and should have let his les majesty position rest until after his confirmation (then start the good fight). The only hope of not having 4 more years of military rule is if he throws all his MPs and support behind the Pheu Thai candidate for PM. Hopefully she will then disband the 250 seat appointed Senate chamber - because until they are gone democracy can never truely take hold and the people's vote will never be respected.
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Love the cheap charlies who think they can get a good haircut for 100-150 baht... A good cut, from someone who can swing a pair of scissors (and not just an electric clipper) is going to cost you 300-500 baht, minimum.
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Bars with the best gogo dancers (best not most beautiful)
Cabradelmar replied to Baron Samedi's topic in Bangkok
Sounds like you wouldn't know any kitty if you weren't at the go-go bars.. Sad, sort of weird, but far from unusual. There is an endless supply of incels and boomer divorcees just like you stalking cowboy and nana. -
Bars with the best gogo dancers (best not most beautiful)
Cabradelmar replied to Baron Samedi's topic in Bangkok
Like I said, no game. Sure, there's plenty of skanks out there. It that's what you are into. If I ever get to the point where I can't get a second look from a beauty on the street or in the club, then maybe I've start buying ass off the stage. Until then, cowboy and nana are the bottom of what the Thai barrel has to offer. Good for a laugh and a drink to start the night, but that's about it. -
Bars with the best gogo dancers (best not most beautiful)
Cabradelmar replied to Baron Samedi's topic in Bangkok
If you got no game go to cowboy or nana. If you got game, there are lots of legit Thai girls everywhere you look. -
New Banksy exhibition coming to Bangkok – without his consent
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Bangkok News
It's a traveling exhibit. None of the showings (worldwide) of any of his art are authorized by him. Why would he. it's not his style. Just like he isn't going to ask for anyone's authorization to place one of his new pieces. The best thing that could happen is if he showed up in Thailand and placed a new piece This is a none news story.