Swimfan

9 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

I think aiming for reporting zero new cases is attainable since it seems that they are making up numbers anyway. Why not just say "zero today!"?

 

Someone posted earlier that in 2017 24k people died in Thailand of the normal flu. That's 2k per month. 

 

If Covid 19 were infectious at the same rate as the flu and had the same mortality rate, then in the first four months this year, around 8k people would have died in Thailand from Covid 19. 

 

Researchers seem to be speculating that though the flu has a R0 of around 1.3, Covid 19 might be twice that high or as high as R0 6. Mortality rates vary in different countries but while the flu kills less than 1% of people, if you take Thailand's reported data of cases with outcomes, around 2% of people die from Covid 19 here which makes it more than twice as deadly. 

 

So, if the infection rate of Covid 19 isn't higher than the flu, but mortality rate is twice that of the flu, around 16k people would have died from Covid 19 so far in Thailand in the first four months this year. That's a lot more than 54. 

Mortality for flu is .01% current estimated mortality for COVID is 3.4% so 34 times more fatal. 

Probably the results of the only 3 test done on the weekend. The numbers will remain low as long as they keep the test numbers low. 
3 is probably high for the number of tests they are doing. 

May be existing tenant is trying to sublet it and keep the rent,

4 hours ago, PerkinsCuthbert said:

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from Covid-19. The recent Stanford University antibody study now estimates that the fatality rate if infected is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent, a risk far lower than previous World Health Organization estimates that were 20 to 30 times higher and that motivated isolation policies.

In New York City, an epicenter of the pandemic with more than one-third of all U.S. deaths, the rate of death for people 18 to 45 years old is 0.01 percent, or 10 per 100,000 in the population. On the other hand, people aged 75 and over have a death rate 80 times that.

For people under 18 years old, the rate of death is zero per 100,000. Of all fatal cases in New York state, two-thirds were in patients over 70 years of age; more than 95 percent were over 50 years of age; and about 90 percent of all fatal cases had an underlying illness. Of 6,570 confirmed Covid-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date, 6,520, or 99.2 percent, had an underlying illness. If you do not already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small, regardless of age. And young adults and children in normal health have almost no risk of any serious illness from COVID-19.

Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding. We can learn about hospital utilization from data from New York City, the hotbed of Covid-19 with more than 34,600 hospitalizations to date. For those under 18 years of age, hospitalization from the virus is 0.01 percent, or 11 per 100,000 people; for those 18 to 44 years old, hospitalization is 0.1 percent. Even for people ages 65 to 74, only 1.7 percent were hospitalized. Of 4,103 confirmed Covid-19 patients with symptoms bad enough to seek medical care, Dr. Leora Horwitz of NYU Medical Center concluded “age is far and away the strongest risk factor for hospitalization.” Even early WHO reports noted that 80 percent of all cases were mild, and more recent studies show a far more widespread rate of infection and lower rate of serious illness.

Half of all people testing positive for infection have no symptoms at all. The vast majority of younger, otherwise healthy people do not need significant medical care if they catch this infection.

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem. We know from decades of medical science that infection itself allows people to generate an immune response – antibodies – so that the infection is controlled throughout the population by “herd immunity.”

Indeed, that is the main purpose of widespread immunization in other viral diseases – to assist with population immunity. In this virus, we know that medical care is not even necessary for the vast majority of people who are infected. It is so mild that half of infected people are asymptomatic, shown in early data from the Diamond Princess ship, and then in Iceland and Italy.

That has been falsely portrayed as a problem requiring mass isolation. In fact, infected people without severe illness are the immediately available vehicle for establishing widespread immunity. By transmitting the virus to others in the low-risk group who then generate antibodies, they block the network of pathways toward the most vulnerable people, ultimately ending the threat. Extending whole-population isolation would directly prevent that widespread immunity from developing.

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections. Critical health care for millions of Americans is being ignored and people are dying to accommodate “potential” Covid-19 patients and for fear of spreading the disease. Most states and many hospitals abruptly stopped “nonessential” procedures and surgery. That prevented diagnoses of life-threatening diseases, like cancer screening, biopsies of tumors now undiscovered and potentially deadly brain aneurysms. Treatments, including emergency care, for the most serious illnesses were also missed. Cancer patients deferred chemotherapy. An estimated 80 per cent of brain surgery cases were skipped. Acute stroke and heart attack patients missed their only chances for treatment, some dying and many now facing permanent disability. 

Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures. The overwhelming evidence all over the world consistently shows that a clearly defined group – older people and others with underlying conditions – is more likely to have a serious illness requiring hospitalization and more likely to die from Covid-19. Knowing that, it is a commonsense, achievable goal to target isolation policy to that group, including strictly monitoring those who interact with them. Nursing home residents, the highest risk, should be the most straightforward to systematically protect from infected people, given that they already live in confined places with highly restricted entry.

Not more Fake News????

On 4/30/2020 at 7:17 PM, ozz1 said:

It's sad when they have money to help a dying airline but can't help their own poor citizens  but this is Thailand

Exactly. Cant even feed their own people adequately. But have money to poor into what is essentially a bankrupt airline. 

They lost all credibility the moment they sent the Tweet on the 14th of January saying there was no evidence of human to human transmigration. They just took the CCPs word for it and did not do any thorough investigation. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus should resign in disgrace.

So is Tourism 11 percent of GDP or 20 or 17 or 25. Seems to change every week ????

Simple. As stated by the government they can not afford to do the testing. No testing no results. the reality is likely to be significantly higher.

Ain’t it fabulous numbers going down. 
Thai government quoted on the BBC today saying they can’t afford to do testing. 

Probably only 2 litres entered as evidence

Traveling to Surat Thani via Bangkok but did not have any money? ????

Generally if they sell the property for less than the value of the loan you are still liable for the difference. 

On 3/28/2020 at 3:23 PM, jak2002003 said:

I do understand that.  But, what happens when the lockdown restrictions are relaxed, won't the infection rate speed up again and the hospitals get overwhelmed with cases?   Will be have to go through the cycle of lockdowns over and over again indefinitely?  

 

 

That’s very possible. The UK is thinking it may have to shut down for 6 months and open for 3 on a cycle until a vaccine is available. 
I think if you can get the number low enough they will be able to stabilize transmissions through contact tracing. That is why they are rushing out apps that can identify who has been in the vicinity of a positive person. Some say invasion of privacy but it might just be what will save us from continued lockdowns.  

Corona virus currently No 1 killer in USA 

deaths a day 

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1894638/?fbclid=IwAR2nXFqKmYE_gSd6ziFN41xBrAJvFiwmMM7E-42kOSv7P15CWcCqNcSYiBE

unlikely to be any tourists for the next 2 quarters

10 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

Assume the headline is true. Then when things open back up again, there is a blank canvas for the virus to spread like wildfire. 

 

What is the plan then? To lockdown forever?

That’s pretty much the gist of it. Most responsible governments will be using the lockdown period to fortify their health services as best as possible and develop strategies to isolate the elderly and high risk groups to minimize the death toll. Once lockdown finishes it will just start blooming exponentially and further lockdowns may be required if health services are being overwhelmed. There is no short term pretty picture. Until a vaccine is developed and assuming they can develop one it is going to be a long road.  

7 minutes ago, Silencer said:

As I see it there were three options. 1) Do nothing 2) Full lock down 3) Partial lock down.  Most governments were clueless in deciding what to do....even with multiple national pandemic plans and exercises under their belt. We must also concede governments are trying to balance political, economic, and health care consequences. Most countries decided "flattening the curve" was the best approach (full and partial lock downs), primarily to save overwhelming their healthcare systems and the political fallout from mass deaths (US was projected at between 1.25 and 2.25 million deaths alone) so some sort of stay-at-home orders were put in place. May not be the best economic decision but it does help the health care/mortality totals and possibly some political benefit. Would a one-time one month worldwide lock down have worked in Feb? Possibly. Would a "do nothing" approach with say 5-10-15 million dead have been acceptable? What about the next one...what will its mortality rate be, rate of infections, who it targets? Maybe we will get better responding to these over time....be better prepared....share information faster....understand the virus quicker....but we aren't there yet and no one can say which approach is the best one, right now, given the conflicting interests trying to be balanced. We all have personal opinions but that won't translate into national policies.

The partial lockdown will come when they are confident they have the necessary facilities Systems in place to deal witH a influx. The current lockdowns are giving governments the opportunity to prepare. I believe the idea is to keep all high risk people in lockdown while gradually letting more people go back to work etc so not to overwhelm the health system while allowing selective immunity to develop 

1 hour ago, scubascuba3 said:

let's call it acceptable collateral damage

Are you prepared to be the Intensivist  on duty doing the triage on who gets to live and who doesn’t ? 
 

1 hour ago, UbonThani said:

Drugs out soon enough. Good early trials.

In your dreams 

7 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

I'd say the biggest <deleted> up by governments all over the world since time began. Caveat, i exclude Sweden and Japan

Just give Sweden a few more days. 

4 hours ago, CRUNCHER said:

You are right to raise the issue of the swine flu - the last pandemic. Estimated casualty numbers vary, but the upper end is 1.4 billion infected with 500,000 dead (Wikipedia). Another factor with swine flu is that it died out in 2009 only to re-appear in 2010.

 

  The economic impact of the approach to COVID 19 is going to be horrendous.  The suffering this will cause can only be imagined (or perhaps can't). I have asked myself, before Trump even raised it, - is the cure worse than the illness? 

 

Unfortunately I cannot answer my own question.  What I would like to have is a professional and definitive answer to the question - why is COVID 19 being treated differently to Swine Flu?

 

 

 

You just have to look at the numbers you quoted to give yourself the answer. At current death rates for Covid at 1.4 billion  Infected you would probably see about 50 million die.So it’s probably about 100 times more deadly than swine flu.