vermin on arrival

4 minutes ago, Phillip9 said:

I would be very careful with this.  It looks like a fake announcement to me.  The wording does not sound anything like a typical US embassy announcement.  It is barely coherent and probably not even written by a native english speaker.  
 

I would not put any personal info into that link provided.  The whole thing is probably a scam to collect personal info.

 

 

[email protected]

3 minutes ago, Phillip9 said:

I would be very careful with this.  It looks like a fake announcement to me.  The wording does not sound anything like a typical US embassy announcement.  It is barely coherent and probably not even written by a native english speaker.  
 

I would not put any personal info into that link provided.  The whole thing is probably a scam to collect personal info.

 

 

I don't know I got an e-mail response that look clearly like an e-mail from the US Embassy in BKK

3 hours ago, greggraham said:

click here - hopefully that works. That part probably deserves its own topic too, a lot of people thought it was impossible that they would write those letters again. 

Form submitted. Thanks so much Greg!

3 hours ago, lopburi3 said:

My reading is there is a new policy until Septermber 11 to provide access to obtaining official extension status for those currently on amnesty exemption which in turn will then allow an official extension of stay to be applied for.  For those not going that route but needing to stay past September 26 immigration will consider providing 30 extensions with embassy letter.

So they will provide letters for 30 day extensions now. great!

Wow. I believe I know this guy peripherally. He's not a bad guy, just broke, and ironically, since he was working in the movie business whatever money he made, he was paying taxes. Most likely it was the women who were helping him out since the movie business is dead now, and one of them dropped a dime on him. I believe his exploits are being exaggerated to make it appear that the popos were sleuths instead of it just being an irate ex making a call be the reason for his demise. Sad.

6 hours ago, Scott said:

Do NOT use social media, including YouTube as a source.   This is the rule:

 

18) Social Media content is not to be used as  source material unless it is from a recognized or approved news media source,  the source of any such material (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube  etc.) should always be shown

 

Continue and you will receive a suspension.  

 

Ooopsie. Sorry : )

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

I tip my hat to your insightful humility in acknowledging facts when they're facts. I recall you were one of the most vociferous critics of the Swedish approach, but if you can see facts for facts that is a rare event here on TVF and frankly shows that these discussions are not in vain. If even one person can acknowledge reality that is a good day for everyone. Well done.

Yeah, this is what civil discourse should be able to result in, I have changed my mind about things a few times during this pandemic due to discussions on tvf. Good on you BKK Brian. It takes intellectual courage to admit when you were wrong about something and change your mind. Big thumbs up.

51 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Yes. But do yourself a favor when you reach enlightenment - start with German beer.

Ein mass bier bitte

24 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

There's also the case of Amazonian tribes: When the missionaries entered the remote areas, they brought with themselves diseases with high R0 and many were decimated, as they had no immunity to a new pathogen. Eventually some did develop immunity and now they won't croak just because there's a flu. It seems to be the same mechanism at work, naive populations get a heavy first impact, after which it just gets less deadly as humans develop resistance. We are now seeing that happening in places where it hit first and hard.

Same with the Black death. It wiped out huge portions of Europe (40-50%) and afterwards the people left had immunity and were able to get on with their lives. It wouldn't go on forever until it killed everyone and kept on killing and killing until there was a vaccine; herd immunity took place and it was centuries before there were future major outbreaks although pockets did develop. This one is clearly not even close to being as bad as the two aforementioned possibilities although the immune compromised should watch out.

21 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Still lots of studies required to evaluate how the antibody respond over a period of time and whether the virus can mutate and disarm the antibody immunity. 
https://theconversation.com/immunity-to-covid-19-may-not-last-this-threatens-a-vaccine-and-herd-immunity-142556

Yes, the science is muddied. For every study, on one side there is one on the other on every topic. Masks are good, Masks do nothing or may be bad. Immunity long, or immunity short. It's on its way out and death rates/icu cases down, or beware the killer mutation and cases are climbing omg no. There will be no meaningful second wave, beware of umpteen waves. Lock-downs vital, lockdowns bad. Open borders and travel with quarantines and test or shut all borders until it ends we cannot have one case. Have I missed one?

It is much more likely that this disease will function as similar ones of its ilk. The only problem was that since it was somewhat a new virus, the first wave hit hard. Most likely mutations will not disarm the immunity as there has already been cross coronavirus immunity shown, and new mutations will most likely not result in a serious case, which is the primary concern, but will just be more contagious and less deadly as viruses want to have live hosts to replicate in.

In addition, the media tends to over-emphasize the less encouraging and more frightening studies as it gets more hits, but thanks for that article. I really recommend watching the video. It's an interesting one. Have a good one. ; )

5 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

So herd immunity is just wishful thinking. 

No it's not as recent studies on immunity find that there is long term immunity from infection.

From a different thread:

Actually there have been a few studies lately (this August)that show immunity will likely last for years, a vaccine will likely work, if developed, and that even people who have no antibodies and mild or asymptomatic cases will likely have long term immunity based on T-Cell and B-cell memory. Please watch the entirety of this video; I watched it last night it was very informative and encouraging. We have been grossly misinformed by overly cautious statements by health care officials who are leading people to believe that this virus doesn't act like any other viruses of it's ilk.

First study discussed was from the University of Washington based on an outbreak on a fishing vessel in which 104 people out of 122 were infected (1 with a serious case-slightly less than 1% serious). Three on the vessel had antibodies and none were infected or developed symptoms on the trip. 101 of the 104 infected developed antibodies within 50 days of their infection (most much quicker than that).

Second study out of Stockholm discussed T-Cell memory. It showed that people with no antibodies and who even had mild or asymptomatic cases, developed specific T-Cell markers for Sars-Cov 2 and had robust t-cell memory and believe that people with additional exposure to the disease will likely not have a severe case; also means a vaccine will likely be effective in the future. Although not discussed in the video the Swedish medical authorities have stated that based on T-cell studies in Stockholm, they believe 30% have these specific t-cells and from this study believe that this form of immunity will likely last for years similar to the original SARS disease.

Third Study from the University of Washington studied people with mild symptoms and the development of antibodies and b-cell and t-cell memory. It showed that exposure to the virus resulted in rapid t-cell replication and that memory b-cells expressed antibodies to the virus.

All 3 studies showed the same thing, that regardless of the severity of the disease that there was likely to be long lived immunity to the disease. People either get antibodies or t and b-cell memory specific to the virus. Herd immunity is likely achievable and that vaccines, if developed, are likely to be effective. People with good t-cell response will likely not get a severe case now or in the future and should have long term immunity of some kind.

Even if no vaccine ends up being developed some kind of herd immunity should eventually take place even if the disease is endemic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5Z6wdu1eI0

8 minutes ago, MRToMRT said:

I have to say what shocks me about this is not that immunity does not last but that someone caught it twice.

 

Only 6% of the UK population have been able to catch it once! And according to our UK press no one is following the rules here.

 

 

Antibody tests are not a reliable indicator of how many people have actually been infected as research has shown that around 30% of people have t-cell immunity and develop no antibodies even though they have been infected and successfully fought off a mild or asymptomatic case of the disease. Antibody testing and t-cell and b-cell memory are all needed to be sorted out to actually find out how many people have been infected in society. In states which had larger epidemics, the number already exposed has actually been huge This doctor in Sweden believes that 50% of Sweden has been exposed to the disease.

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

4 hours ago, tomazbodner said:

We knew this from a woman in Japan at the time when that cruise liner docked there with many infected on it... There was a tour guide who got infected second time around then. So that's... 6 months ago? There were a handful more cases cited that were confirmed to be second infections. How can this be news 6 months later?

That was most likely due to the sensitivity of the test picking up the fragments of the prior infection that were still in her system. The PCR tests amplifies the amount of virus in the person to detect it and can detect dead/non-infectious virus in a person's system.

2 hours ago, MikeN said:

It is well known now that COVID 19 can leave you with serious long term health problems, so you would be more vulnerable if reinfected.

No, probably not , as recent studies show that there is long term immunity from antibodies and t-cell and b-cell memory in patients who have asymptomatic, mild and serious cases. The reinfection by a mutated strain will most likely be non-serious. If people are not immune compromised, the reinfected will not have a major problem and the initial infection will actually have been a good thing for them as it will improve the immune response the second time around if they did not have a serious case the 1st time.

40 minutes ago, Scott said:

Off-topic posts and videos removed.  This is about France.  

 

Ok apologies

4 hours ago, ukrules said:

He was completely asymptomatic so perhaps that's a hint as to what immunity a previous infection provides.

 

 

I agree it's great news, but this will be twisted the other way to make people completely afraid.

Here is an interesting article by a Swedish Doctor from another thread on the situation in Sweden and his thoughts on the disease. It's very encouraging as it deals with the ifr and the issue of immunity:

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

On 8/17/2020 at 3:24 PM, Peter Denis said:

Time to revive this thread with an interesting article!

How bad is covid really? (A Swedish doctor’s perspective) – Sebastian Rushworth M.D.

I always like a Common Sense perspective, and that's exactly what this easy to read article provides.

Great Article

Interesting it seems like the spread in the US is going down as it has run its course in new states; I wonder if the first wave in the US is finally on it's way out or will new states be hit. The predicted 100,000 daily cases is not happening.

49 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

the tour de france bike race is due to start later this week then you will see some big rises in cases with all the crowds along the route and none distancing and no mask on

I'm sure there will be cases, the issue will be how many serious ones and how many deaths. Currently only 1% of global cases are considered serious.

2 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

Depends on whether you just need a 12 month extension or whether you also need the initial 3 month visa aswell 

Please elucidate. The initial 3 months, makes it more expensive? For just the 12 month extension it is cheaper? Feel free to pm me.

22 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

 

Also important in this argument is that these illegal "tourists" will not have proper medical insurance here, so if something happens to them they will burden the hospital system. It is right and proper that they leave Thailand now before they create a problem for the country.

 

Any medical costs would far outweigh the tiny amount of Baht they contribute.

Cmon Patrick please stop spamming us here with this stuff. it smacks of trolling.

2 minutes ago, JoseThailand said:

They're notorious for catching foreigners in or around the airport, before they can make it to the immigration.

I did not know that.

3 hours ago, Mike Teavee said:

I don't think they would have got a stamp as they weren't on overstay because of the amnesty, but after this ends who knows whether you would be treated as having extended up to Sept 26th or be treated as overstaying from the end of you latest permission to stay. 

 

Immigration did say that this was the last extension & people had to extend their permission to stay or leave the country by 26th September so they could go either way... I would lean towards them using the original pos date as from their viewpoint they've given everybody ample warning to get themselves sorted or leave the country, there are the cases of people on Non-O ME's that are still valid & a few genuine cases where the person would have great difficulties in leaving Thailand (embassy letters may be able to help here) and I hope that Immigration at least take these into account when deciding how it goes. 

 

 

I have no idea why people were getting a red stamp in their passport for missing the 90 day, but there were a couple of examples posted in threads on here so it obviously happened to some (though not me & mine was originally due in May) 

 

 

 

Ubon Joe has assured us that overstay would start after Sept 26 if the amnesty is not extended.

3 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

We were (or at least I was) talking about retirement/volunteer visa , (which are a bit more that that) 

 

Yeah you were saying 50k in another thread, right? That's not cheap. Seems like they have raised the prices now. I had heard a while back that it was in the 15-25k range.

5 hours ago, asiamaster said:

Nakhonchai air has a good reputation. Good safe drivers and I believe even two drivers that take turns.

I take NCA often and have taken BKK to Mukdahan overnight rides on many occasions when Lao border was open. Udon to BKK was always a day run for me. This is disappointing to read.