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vermin on arrival
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Posts posted by vermin on arrival
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40 minutes ago, Donga said:
Probably a little early, though Prof Borody's Ivermectin therapy is showing promise and further study is underway at the well respected Doherty Institute...
"Following on from the initial paper, researchers from Monash University and the Peter Doherty Institute of Infection and Immunity are continuing to investigate the use of ivermectin as a potential treatment for COVID-19 with current ongoing research. Their aim is to move from in-vitro phase to pre-clinical trials soon.
‘We are conducting a range of optimisation experiments that, if positive, will determine the best dosage and treatment regimen to move forward into clinical trials,’ Dr Wagstaff said."
https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/insufficient-evidence-to-currently-support-ivermecIn Australia no, however, in the rest of the world yes. Borody claims in this interview that in the trials in Bangladesh and China there was 100% success in treatment and in the US trial close to but not completely 100% cures when used in combination with doxycycline and zinc. He says the treatment also acts very quickly with minimal side effects (headaches in a few cases). In South America ivermectin is being used as a preventive with 0 cases in the housing blocks that get it. He says it is available in Australia for parasites in humans and has minimal side effects.
Here is the link to his interview on sky Australia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6A6RFDprIs
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4 hours ago, Swimfan said:
I think professor Barody should just stick to treating bowel issues as is his specialty. You might want to take some time to read reviews of his clinic.
Well he had the last laugh that time, as all of his brethren and consensus doctors had a completely wrong understanding of ulcers. My uncle might still be alive and not have died of a septic ulcer if Borody's viewpoint had been taken into account earlier.
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6 hours ago, Don Chance said:Ivermectin triple therapy, everyone take the drugs as prophylactics.
“Triple therapy specialist Professor Thomas Borody, famous for curing peptic ulcers using a triple antibiotic therapy saving millions of lives, today released the COVID-19 treatment protocol to Australian GPs, who can legally prescribe it to their COVID-19 positive patients. They can also prescribe it as a preventative medication. Borody says this could be the fastest and safest way to end the pandemic in Australia within 6-8 weeks.”
“There is mounting worldwide clinical literature pointing to a 100% cure rate using Ivermectin Triple Therapy,” said Professor Borody.
Interesting. For sure, with his fantastic treatment that he came up with for peptic ulcers when everyone in the world believed that it was a result of mental problems/ stress and he proved that it was from a bacteria and that they were curable by antibiotics, this is exciting. He is not afraid to swim against the stream and think outside of the box.
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7 hours ago, VBF said:In principle I did and still do agree with the "Herd immunity" approach and agree that lockdowns merely delay the inevitable.....but there's one big problem.
Corona viruses are known to mutate, so the "herd" might become immune to the original virus, but would that immunity persist if / when it mutates?
Not being a doctor / scientist, I don't know.
My understanding is that the immunity from antibodies, t-cells and b-cells memory would still provide protection. Immunologists talk about cross-coronavirus immunity and how some people have immunity even from their experience with the common cold. I suspect that it would help make the new mutation's infection be less severe.
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This guy is the number one virologist fear monger in the country. No way it will hit that number. I mostly just read articles with his photo on it to have a good laugh and know what not to believe.
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On 8/22/2020 at 10:25 PM, Bluespunk said:
He didn’t say anyone stopped it.
Most likely it was a combination of mutation to a less virulent form the of the disease and some form of herd immunity, no?
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On 8/21/2020 at 11:36 AM, Daithi85 said:
Indonesia done a last minute U-turn and is extending there visa amnesty, Thailand will probably do the same.????????????or at least allow people to extend visas from within.
Yes, they have. Interesting and good for them.
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12 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:
What you're saying is consistent with what I said above.
The person I was responding to had suggested reducing to a 7-day quarantine, and I was answering that that would not be appropriate given what we know about the virus.
Apologies. I am tired. Been online too much today and going through this feed a little quickly. My bad. Break Time!
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21 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:
Except that the virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days... and can remain undetected for that length of time post-exposure, before symptoms can surface if they do. And people are said to be most contagious in the few days before symptoms surface, and then the first few days after.
Actually people who are infected are not infectious after 11 days into the infection so a 14 day quarantine works. Only people who have a serious case are infectious after the 11th day of infection so they will not mistakenly escape quarantine by being presymptomatic or asymptomatic.
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7 hours ago, cmarshall said:I'll take the over: Covid-19 will never go away. It's too highly infectious. Immunity from infection is unlikely to persist more than a few months, like other coronaviruses. And a vaccine is unlikely. In the past twenty-five years only seven new vaccines have been developed, none of which work against any coronavirus.
Actually there have been a few studies lately (this August)that show immunity will likely last for years, a vaccine will likely work, if developed, and that even people who have no antibodies and mild or asymptomatic cases will likely have long term immunity based on T-Cell and B-cell memory. Please watch the entirety of this video; I watched it last night it was very informative and encouraging. We have been grossly misinformed by overly cautious statements by health care officials who are leading people to believe that this virus doesn't act like any other viruses of it's ilk.
First study discussed was from the University of Washington based on an outbreak on a fishing vessel in which 104 people out of 122 were infected (1 with a serious case-slightly less than 1% serious). Three on the vessel had antibodies and none were infected or developed symptoms on the trip. 101 of the 104 infected developed antibodies within 50 days of their infection (most much quicker than that).
Second study out of Stockholm discussed T-Cell memory. It showed that people with no antibodies and who even had mild or asymptomatic cases, developed specific T-Cell markers for Sars-Cov 2 and had robust t-cell memory and believe that people with additional exposure to the disease will likely not have a severe case; also means a vaccine will likely be effective in the future. Although not discussed in the video the Swedish medical authorities have stated that based on T-cell studies in Stockholm, they believe 30% have these specific t-cells and from this study believe that this form of immunity will likely last for years similar to the original SARS disease.
Third Study from the University of Washington studied people with mild symptoms and the development of antibodies and b-cell and t-cell memory. It showed that exposure to the virus resulted in rapid t-cell replication and that memory b-cells expressed antibodies to the virus.
All 3 studies showed the same thing, that regardless of the severity of the disease that there was likely to be long lived immunity to the disease. People either get antibodies or t and b-cell memory specific to the virus. Herd immunity is likely achievable and that vaccines, if developed, are likely to be effective. People with good t-cell response will likely not get a severe case now or in the future and should have long term immunity of some kind.
Even if no vaccine ends up being developed some kind of herd immunity should eventually take place even if the disease is endemic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5Z6wdu1eI0
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1 hour ago, 3NUMBAS said:Myanmar locks down Rakhine state capital after outbreak of more infectious virus strain
Myanmar has locked down the state capital of conflict-torn Rakhine after an outbreak of a coronavirus strain that officials said was more infectious than that previously seen in the country.
Nineteen people have tested positive for the virus in the western region since Monday, health officials said on Friday, the first local transmission in Myanmar in months, bringing the total number of cases to 409.
Myat Htut Nyunt, deputy director at Myanmar's department of medical research, said the type of virus was the same as a mutation detected earlier this week in Malaysia, which has been found in Europe, North America, and parts of Asia and is thought to be more infectious.
More infectious is probably good. It will mean that it is less deadly. If people are this alarmed by a few cases (and 19 is a small amount), then the Asia Pacific region will stay shut until the covid epidemic is done. I wonder how people would react if the Black Death reemerged if this is the reaction over what appears to be a very bad flu.
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1 hour ago, 3NUMBAS said:
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-covid-19-tally-crosses-1-000-4149797.html
August 11, 2020. Photo by VnExpress/Dac Thanh.Vietnam recorded 14 new Covid-19 cases Thursday evening, taking the national count to four figures at 1,007 with 439 active cases.
Eleven of the new cases are from the central city of Da Nang, one from neighboring Quang Nam Province and two are imported, the Health Ministry said.
The Da Nang patients, numbered 994 to 998 and 1,001 to 1,006, are aged 24-65. They include six caregivers, one medical worker and one patient at the Da Nang Hospital and the Da Nang Oncology Hospital.
So it looks like they already getting that small outbreak in Danang under control. 14 is way down from what they had.
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Just now, johnnybangkok said:
I’m a big fan of civil discourse. Too often the rabid out shout the reasonable and the topic gets lost in “my view has to be heard, so f&ck you”.
Its neither constructive nor helpful.
It's the only way to ever get a better understanding of the world and change yours or other people's minds. I have already changed my mind twice about the nature of the disease/situation we are in based on discussions I have had with people here and elsewhere. People must be open to the possibility that they may be wrong and be open to having their views changed.
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3 minutes ago, johnnybangkok said:
Let’s hope you are right but hopefully you can agree, without the correct numbers to know when herd immunity will become effective, a vaccine is still our best bet.
I'm just not optimistic about the time frame, quality and safety of these rushed vaccines. If the creation of one is the only way to reopen much of the world we will be in for a rough ride. I hope I am wrong.
Have a good one : )
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1 minute ago, johnnybangkok said:Ok let’s say then the numbers are inflated so what would then be a credible number? 1 million in Europe? 2-3 million worldwide? These are still big numbers.
Im not disagreeing with what you are saying but I think it’s plain to see that lockdown has prevented enough deaths to constitute its initiation; but the long and short of it is governments the world over (especially western ones) have been utterly clueless in their reactions.
S.Korea and Taiwan got it right; close your borders early, identify, track and quarantine. Keep your most vulnerable locked away and monitor, monitor, monitor.
The worldwide economic effects of this disease could have been much, much less if sensible heads had governed, but I suppose that’s too much to ask of politicians, I mean they’re only there to govern after all.Who knows. Not sure what the credible numbers would be. It is very hard to get to the truth of that. The serious professionals who view this just a really bad flu season worse than the Asian and Hong Kong flus, but not as bad as the Spanish flu, are having their voices drowned out by those who need to justify their positions and not lose legitimacy. For sure there was needed a short lockdown to flatten the curve and get an understanding of things, but the situation now is an overkill of hysteria. Having one case is being viewed as the introduction of the black death into society, We must learn to live with this with a clear head and well reasoned preventive measures.
Btw, thanks for the reasonable reply to my post. It's nice to know that people can have some disagreement in a public forum and still respect one another.
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1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:
Covid killed about 0.00008 of planetary population (and getting smaller with 150,000 more births than deaths every day), NY says 99.3% of people had pre-existing condition - which translates as 0.00000014% of world population died that were healthy adults ! Complete lunacy. The other day , 2 people only died in the UK, both were 86 with pre-existing condition. World has gone totally and absolutely nuts
We are in the midst of a hysteria produced by government and media fearmongering. I don't believe that the disease is a hoax, and and I think preventive measures are definitely needed, but the situation in many countries now is over the top. It seems that there is no way to back off it now that we are looking at case numbers as the index. The flu infects about a billion each year so I would expect this disease to eventually reach at least hundreds of millions infected. Since they tout having low case numbers is the only acceptable way to open society there is no way they can back away from their policies now, but even countries with 0 local cases are still hugely paranoid.
Taiwan considers their single cases in state quarantine and singe digit cases of asymptomatic returnees to other countries a spike in cases and have reintroduced more serious preventive measures in their society. Looks like I am never getting home since I cannot travel from 1 country with 0 local cases to another (Thailand to Taiwan) even with tests and quarantine because I am not a special corporate person or some such VIP. What nonsense.
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1 hour ago, johnnybangkok said:
Firstly, herd immunity does not simply come from lots of people getting it; that's just more misinformation used by those that don't know what they are talking about (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/24/894148860/without-a-vaccine-researchers-say-herd-immunity-may-never-be-achieved).
The best chance of herd immunity will come from a vacine (see measles, smallpox, flu) as you need roughly 60-70% of the population immune for others to be protected. As Sweden has shown with only 6% showing 'immunity', that figure is VERY hard to reach.
Secondly, it's not the flu but again the only reason flu has become ''treatable' is they have a vacine for it.
Herd immunity is a source of much debate. Some think and are arguing your point, but other virologists, immunologists and epidemiologists are on the other side. The 60-70% figure is also much debated, since a large percentage of the population has t-cell immunity (and other forms of immunity), in Sweden, researchers believe that close to 30% have t-cell immunity. Thus, the numbers may be shifted downwards a great deal, Some say the actual number needed for strong societal protection may drop down to between 20-50%
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1 hour ago, johnnybangkok said:
Sweden has one of the highest Covid deaths per population in the world, currently ranked at 6th (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/). Their choice to not lockdown has been hugely controversial and continues to divide the country and public opinion in Europe.
Better examples of 'managing this correctly' would be S. Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand.
Sweden had problems with protecting their nursing homes at the start of the pandemic, a fact which they readily admit and regret and which many countries had. They also believe that their nation is not truly comparable to their Nordic neighbors (some parts are similar to them but other parts of the nation are more similar to the UK and the Netherlands)Now they are doing quite well, and it seems that most swedes and the medical establishment there is happy with the current situation in the country.
There are interesting interviews from July with Anders Tegnell and an important Swedish physician and researcher if you are interested in links.
Case numbers low and deaths in single digits at most. Very few serious cases in the country. Seems like they are through the worst of it, looking at the graph, although they are concerned about a possible second wave this winter.
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3 hours ago, johnnybangkok said:
You were doing so well until your last 3 lines.
So you think this is all media hyped nonsense then? Do you want tell that to the 790,000 (and counting) already dead? And as for all those that bemoan lockdowns and social distancing, a recent Imperial College London study shows that if lockdown hadn't occured, Europe alone is conservatively estimated to have been looking at 3 milion dead and worldwide, the number would have hit 7 million (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52968523). That's some big numbers by anyones estimate so before you start talking about 'media fear mongering' and fueling 'the populace’s fear' perhaps you should take a moment to think it was in fact an appropriate response given what could have been and possibly still might be.
Those estimates were based on the flawed models that the epidemiologists created so I wouldn't put much stock in it. One creates a poor model with crazy hyper-inflated numbers to induce fear so policy makers take some action. Action is taken, then you claim you saved people from the spurious prediction based on one's warning.
This is not say that the disease is a hoax and no preventive action should be taken, but it's not the disease we were led to believe. However, many credible doctors, virologist, and epidemiologists are saying that they believe the true ifr is between .1-.5%. This would mean that the disease while potentially quite bad (can be truly deadly to many people in certain age groups and with certain comorbidities, and kill some outside of those groups, and can have quite bad long term effects for people who had serious infections) would not cause that huge number of deaths. However, after inducing such fear to change behavior, it is really incredibly difficult to be able to step back from it since the people who made the claims and the politicians who followed them would all be discredited and have their careers ruined.
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17 minutes ago, PatrickC said:
Thai GDP is about 16 trillion Baht a year. The tourists we're speaking about spend maybe a few hundred Baht a day. Divide a few hundred Baht by 16 trillion. We're really talking the tiniest number imaginable.
How would Thailand benefit if they force these people out? It would appear to be a country of law and order, which is exactly what it needs to become. Rules are rules. If someone can return to their country of citizenship, Thailand should enforce their immigration laws and make it so.
I'd be in favour of precisely the same in my country of citizenship. I'd oppose any amnesty due to covid for any foreigners there.
Marketing? No one cares. Tourists will still flock to Thailand again once they can. Great weather and beaches - Europeans and the Chinese love it. They'll come back.
Ve must have order!
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This virologist always makes the statements which are the most fear inducing as possible. I don't take his statements seriously anymore. He is a pure fear monger.
There is plenty of research to say that people are not infectious after 11 days from being infected so a 14 day quarantine is more than enough. The numbers of people who are infectious after that are a very small minority (tiny), and are people who get extremely ill with covid and are usually are very aged and have multiple comorbidities. There is no possibility of these people being released from quarantine and let into the general population as well since they will be in an infectious disease hospital ward being treated.
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7 hours ago, Andycoops said:
But as we have just learned 2 people who tested negative upon returning to Thailand were found to be positive more than 2 weeks later having spent the 14 days in quarantine.
The whole virus situation is a can of worms with no end in sight until vaccines are proved to work.
They are probably immune with small particles of dead virus being picked up in the final test.
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8 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:
Thailand, in the end, took the steps necessary to control and limit the virus in the country, and avoided the kinds of mass deaths and illnesses seen elsewhere.
Other countries like the U.S. abjectly failed to do so, and have paid the price not only in economic losses, but also in hundreds of thousands of dead citizens.
Between the two, I know where I'd want to be living right now.
Yes, but it's not an either or. It's not complete shut down of borders and attempt for total suppression of the virus or complete uncontrolled epidemic. There are middle paths. Just because I might be criticizing certain aspects of what Thailand has done does not mean I am espousing the "policies (or non policies)" or situation in the US or Brazil or wherever. Thailand did some good things and some bad things. Certainly, I am not planning on going back to the US any time soon. It seems whenever someone says something is not it seems in Thailand or offers some critique on Thailand in any way some people come back with the argument that the only alternative is the situation in the situation in the US, and this is not true. This does not foster a reasonable discussion to get to the full truth of the issue.
If I could just get back home to Taiwan, I wouldn't even be discussing things in the forum because I would have a life, but I am trapped here with my life destroyed due to the suppression policies in the region (no way to get back even getting tests and quarantines since I am just a normal guy and don't qualify for the special permits as the big shots do-I am in a complicated situation with no end in sight) Have a good day : )
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8 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:
The UK... with one of the highest CV fatality rates among the countries in the world... ya think...not a great example?
Yes, but a lot of that was due to poor policies at nursing homes (as in so many countries) and at hospitals. Apparently 20% of the infected were infected during their visits to the hospital.
Thailand Seeks Safe Way of Reopening Borders to Boost Economy
in Thailand News
Posted
Not true at all. The big failure was in not protecting the nursing homes which resulted in the vast majority of their deaths and the very high death rate per million, something which Anders Tegnell deeply regrets. This problem has since been corrected, and it seems that the majority of the Swedish population and health care practitioners/community are quite happy with the situation in Sweden now.
View the current graph-low case numbers, and for August there have been single digit daily mortalities with many cases the number being 0, seems like they are through the worst of it, and only need to be concerned about a possible second wave this winter. However, with a 10%+ antibody rate in Stockholm and 30% testing for specific t-cell memory immunity, they are in a good position to handle that.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/