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vermin on arrival
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Posts posted by vermin on arrival
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43 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:
You'd have to speak to them directly. I've spoken to an agent who is quoting 13,000 to the school (no classes) and the same to immigration and that's the cheapest I've seen. If you actually want lessons then you'll be paying considerably more.
Wow. Not cheap. Of course, you can see the financial incentive in immigration not allowing more amnesties or a more direct way to do short term extensions in country during this crisis as they do in Vietnam. The tough talk may reflect their beliefs, but it also will scare people into the hands of their partners, the agents.
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21 minutes ago, Jingthing said:
I agree it's somewhat of a mystery. There has definitely been underreporting and sparse testing but there is also strong evidence that the end results seen in many other countries, packed hospitals and mass deaths, haven't happened either. So I guess might as well not look a gift horse in the mouth and hope Thailand keeps it's good results going on.
Not just Thailand, most of SE and East Asia. Even the hot spots of the PI and Indonesia, which have packed hospitals, just don't compare to the west in mortality rates. Something more is going in here.
Even if one goes with excess deaths in Thailand it is only like 2400 in March...maybe more in Feb. Not the huge numbers elsewhere (although some suggest things were hidden in the pneumonia figures).
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9 minutes ago, pookondee said:Im not into these Y.T conspiracy theories, such as the virus is a hoax or whatever.
But a lot of doctors and researchers are now saying this idea of being infected yet remaining completely asymptomatic, is complete hogwash.
One guy even made referance to it being akin to a schoolboy playing hooky from school for a month..
Then he goes back to the teacher and explains he was sick, but it was no use going to the doctor since he had no symptoms.
Its just a load of rubbish.
If you listen to the WHO and others, nearly DAILY they are coming up with the silliest speil they can dream up, so as to suggest this Covid is approaching the WORST possible case scenario.
Next thing we will be hearing that after having Covid it will stay in your system for years and then one day you will suddenly drop dead when all the bugs wake up again.
Its absolute BS.
And you've got to wonder why that is?
Why are these xxxxwits constantly lining to propagate rubbish and make it all sound as worse as it can possibly be?
Well it's not a hoax, but the medical establishment always tries to scare people into doing what they think is in our or societies best interest. In general, they don't want to accept any deaths. Also once they went all in convincing governments to shut down society, the economy and international travel, it is pretty hard to back away from that and say...oh never mind.
Some researchers think the completely asymptomatic cases are people who are immune and that the problem is in the way the PCR test detects the illness. They believe the test is in this case detecting the rna strands of destroyed virus which have been crushed by the person's t-cells as infections when the person is really non-infectious/has inherent immunity.
Also, so you know the you tube interview I put up above was not some conspiracy theorist. Anders Tegnell is Sweden's head epidemiologist. He is a controversial figure since Sweden took a different approach with mixed results. It's interesting that, while he regrets what happened in the nursing homes early in Sweden's epidemics, he feels generally good about the situation in Sweden now.
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5 minutes ago, ukrules said:You had to to go far into China for a large outbreak to happen in Wuhan which is in Hubei, top right corner of the map or just outside the circle before you start to see 1000's of deaths in Bangladesh.
This is a huge continuous 'relatively safe zone' crossing plenty of borders.
Why?
Maybe genetics. Or maybe the wave already passed through with many minor cases.
Interesting article from Taiwan says an antibody study of at risk people in one county which had only had 19 confirmed covid cases already came up with 3,000 people testing positive for covid antibodies. They haven't even completed all 10,000 of the people in the study (in a county of 1.3 million people in central Taiwan) and will have the results available August 25. This is from a country which has only had 480 confirmed cases to date and 7 deaths amid a population of 23.8 million. They haven't even done this in the hots spots of Taipei and New Taipei city. Most likely Taiwan had tens of thousands of minor cases of covid.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3983632
I suspect that there was a large amount of cases that already went though Thailand, most of them mild. Unfortunately, there is no antibody study being released here. The one mentioned in the Bangkok Herald has been retracted as the editor said there has been some reason to doubt it's veracity. However, if Taiwan which had much more proactive measures being done is showing so many past infections, most likely there were more here. However if they are here now, they are most likely mild.
Slightly off topic, but related to the issue of how many asymptomatic carriers there may be and this relates to IFR, I just watched a July 23 interview with Anders Tegnell of Sweden. At one point when he was asked what he thought covid's IFR would eventually come out to be, he said between .1 and .5% the same as you guessed it....a bad flu season. He also talked about Sweden's antibody testing, immunity and T cell immunity. It was interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xh9wso6bEAc
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8 minutes ago, tribalfusion001 said:
There is a vlogger in Pattaya who has secured an ED visa until March 2021, Tommyland, send a message to him, he might be able to give you some advice.
So since 6 months of amnesty given only 6 extra months on the visa? Or it starts at the end of your last valid stamp to Thailand? It had been stated that all new visas and extensions start on Sept. 27.
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28 minutes ago, ANDREW999 said:
they said to me they can
What was the cost all in?
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17 minutes ago, jacob29 said:
https://www.facebook.com/pages/category/Language-School/Pro-Language-Pattaya-336291853140868/
That second part is a little amusing, as it disqualifies me. I tried to stay legal, got an extension after the amnesty date (but before it was announced), which has turned me into an undesirable :). Had I just left it to chance and gone the overstay route (only overstaying days after 26-Mar, but never visiting immigration), I would be golden.
Wow that is soon. I need a school in Bangkok. Oh wait the school offers online courses too, but can they sort visa out for people in BKK?
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Yes. I may have to do this. Following this.
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19 minutes ago, Wongkitlo said:
Yes the limit of 30 people per flight makes it difficult. If they had any sense they would increase the numbers of passengers and limit the number of flights. I can't see any logic to the present situation.
I completely agree.
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For me it is a mix of answers 2 and 3. I think at a certain point I will have no choice, but to do it. Also,if my aged parents survive this pandemic, I don't think they will allow me to visit them unless I have had it.
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12 hours ago, Catkiwi said:That is just bloody sad mate!!! I hope you get better soon. You either love Thailand for what it is or just <deleted> off and stop bloody whining about it!!! <deleted>!!!
Not whining. Just expressing my opinion to the OP. I would be gone already, but the border to places I want/need to go are shut. As I said before, my plan was to leave permanently on March 29. I am out the first chance I get to go where I need to be.
Thanks for saying that you hope I get better soon. The second half of your post was just uncalled for.
Love it or leave it? I don't love Thailand anymore and I will be leaving. It is perfectly acceptable to express that. I don't have to agree with you. If you love Thailand feel free to express it in a positive post to the OP. No need to attack me for expressing an alternative view. Please show some common courtesy. Have a good day.
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3 hours ago, Wongkitlo said:
It is if you are trying to get there. I have bought my 2nd ticket there. The first was cancelled and given a voucher. I have another ticket but am expecting it to be cancelled from latest report. Even if it isn't cancelled it is to Sydney which is 1000 kms from Melbourne. At present Melbourne is in lockdown. The airport is closed and I don't think there are even buses. I could walk. Otherwise can be homeless in Sydney.
I think I didn't express myself properly. I understand that. You are stuck. My point is that the reaction of the Australian government seems extreme in relation to the scale of the outbreak. I am stuck as well. Based on my particular situation, I can't get home to Taiwan. For sure, I don't see you getting there by Sept 26. I also don't see a possibility to get to my home unless by then unless someone pulls a rabbit out of a hat for me or I get really lucky. We are both screwed. I would think a covid test on either side of travel and 14 day quarantine would be sufficient for both of us to travel to our respective locations.
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Interesting option. Will need to bear this one in mind.
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I used to love Thailand 22 years ago (and really enjoyed BKK back in the day). There are still things I like about it, but it's not the place I fell in love with. While still reasonably priced, the costs have gone up a great deal. The night life is not what it was although I am not much interested in that anymore. Health care costs continue to climb and, without insurance, if you have a serious problem and use the private hospital, it would be quite expensive. Also, with the current government, the visa situation is more difficult/complex than it used to be; I feel less welcome here by them than the government/immigration before. I was on my way out on March 29 but then everything came crashing down on March 18, and I got stuck here (of course could be much worse I could be back in the US)
I much prefer Laos now, but the big problem there if you are getting on is that the health care there is poor and you would need to come here for it. If you speak some Lao, I find the people to be friendlier there and more like it was here in years past.
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3 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:
Not always as after 22 years of setting up a home here and the last 5 years since I retired I've been told to leave Thailand before the 26th September because I've used my 60 day extension which ran out just after the borders closed,I have all the amnesty stamps but can't get the year extension for marriage because my visa has expired.I've now got the money in the bank and an embassy letter for a last ditched attempt if that fails I will have to just walk away from it all.
Wow really sorry to hear that. What absolute bs.
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10 hours ago, Wongkitlo said:
It is not so easy to get out. Australia has had a 2nd wave and is limiting entries to 30 people per plane. It is hard for airlines to operate under those conditions. There are repatriation flights but they are not cheap. I understood USA Spain Germany and UK at least are still having bad virus outbreaks. We are a bit isolated from it all in Thailand but the situation in the rest of the world is still bad. I have bought my 2nd ticket for late September but with the current situation I think they will cancel it.
Australia's second wave really is not that big a deal. Germany and Spain are having large numbers of cases, but the number of serious cases is less than 2% and the death rate is minuscule. The UKs number of new cases is less than Germany or Spain; the problem there is the number of deaths is strangely high. I don't see the situation in Europe as that bad now. It's certainly much better than before and seems manageable now. There are more cases in some countries there, but the death rate has plummeted, except for England. Now the US situation is very bad. Of course the situation is much much better here and elsewhere in Asia.
Having said that air travel is still problematic and will be for quite some time.
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18 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:
So if IYO Thailand were at fault to taking emergency measures too slow , you must also think that emergency measures shouldnt be lifted too early and that the borders should remain closed and no foreigners allowed into Thailand until the World is Corona free
No I believe they should be done with adequate, measured, and sensible precautions. Tests on either side and 14 day quarantine and mandatory tracking, maybe making it easier for people from low infections, or some such regulation. That should be sufficient and would probably have been successful here earlier. (Visitors from Mainland China should have been stopped from visiting in January probably all over the world and might have nipped this thing in the bud)Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong (and others) had very measured approaches early which were quite successful.
For now the whole world is giving the extremely wealthy, VIPS, and the well heeled business travelers a pass and screwing the average people who are stuck outside of where they need to be, etc.; this should change. The completely closed borders and total lockdown both seems and seemed draconian and is destroying many lives, mine included. A balance must be made between disease prevention and economic/life destruction.
The later draconian policies were required in some instances due to the laissez faire attitude which took place prior. Certainly there was a lack of transparency and denial in many places about the severity of the situation, and also deliberate misinformation coming from China in an attempt to cover things up.
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12 minutes ago, G950 said:
People were mostly confident in mid June that there would be an extension, which we got.
The wording from the Thai government with the extension is that of "hey, we have been generous up to a point, but eventually you will need to have a proper visa or get out".I think there will be a mechanism to apply for a monthly extension once Sept 26 arrives, but the days of auto extensions are probably over. Look forward to generating paperwork and THB 1900 each month if you want to stay after Sept 26 on a tourist visa.
There were many people saying it would not be extended end of July and get ready to be kicked out but maybe they just wanted to troll the people with less secure visa situations.
The wording for this decree is exactly the same as the prior one. Please ask @ubonjoe if you want.
However, having said that it may very well not be extended so people need to consider all their options. There are a number of visa pundits here who believe it unlikely (not impossible) that it will not be extended (BritTim, Tanoshi and PeterDenis have all voiced this opinion and I respect it). I would be happy to go month to month paying for 30 days if that option were available while I try to get back home to Taiwan.
I am currently exploring any option to get back to Taiwan first but may need to do something here as it gets toward the end of August.
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6 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:
Yes, your link states
"In a similar pattern, all-cause mortality data have revealed a higher than average number of deaths in March that returned to normal levels in April and May."
Yes, but there were excess deaths before then so most likely the ones in March (or many of them) were the result of covid and no data for February. The measure that were enacted helped but came late. They were definitely not timely. Action should have come in January as it did in many other countries, Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam being good examples.
The fact that there were no excess deaths in April and May doesn't negate the earlier excess deaths and make them 0.
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43 minutes ago, torturedsole said:
Like I said, the test is unreliable and testing is extremely limited in the UK. I don't know a single person that has been tested in the UK for C19. I would doubt the results anyway.
17.5 million tests(rank 5) and tests/million rank(14 in world) them above most of the world except for Denmark and then above them many smaller nations. Doesn't seem like limited testing. The reliability of the testing is open to question.
I think the OP has raised an interesting question.
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11 hours ago, hotandsticky said:
You can dismiss the corpses in the street argument but the fact is that has been no increase in deaths in Thailand (therefor no impact from CV19 cases). Hospotals under pressure from CV19 admissions?..... No.
Actually, according to the BBC from March 1 to May 31 "The number of deaths in Thailand has been 2% higher than average, with about 2,400 more people dying than usual." This excludes the month of February when things had already kicked off here with the first reported case on Jan. 31.
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5 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:
OMG, that's a step to far!!
And even for eating on the plane..."The outcome of the discussions are expected to be known in a few weeks." : O
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"The meme escalated when conservative American pundit and filmmaker Dinesh D’Souza, who was pardoned by Trump after a conviction of violating campaign finance law, argued in a series of tweets that “Thighland” is in fact the correct pronunciation. "
LOL!
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33 minutes ago, Rockbottom said:
BTW, a vaccine will not take "years"to be administered in Thailand. In a July 7 interview with TIME, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said he believes that Food and Drug Administration approval could come as soon as October.
I find that overly optimistic. I am very skeptical. First, must be approved and then needs to have billions produced and while it is being rolled out they will be checking for serious side effects because the early testing won't be as rigorous as normally needed. I expect it to go to the more advanced nations who will pay more first. I think the numbers that might get it next year in Thailand would be quite small, but maybe not...
Thai Language ED Visa WITHOUT leaving the country?
in Thai Visas, Residency, and Work Permits
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For 3 months maybe a medical visa is better. I think it gives you 3 months and the fee with agent is 15. Also if I can find the thread it can be done in 2 weeks.