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onebir

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Posts posted by onebir

  1. 1 hour ago, webfact said:
    PIBICS and the biometrics system flagged him up as a person of interest. 
    ....
    In 2015 he managed to get back into Thailand on a new passport again under the name of Mr Amarnath but this time with a new date of birth. This managed to fox the system.

    They've improved their system/biometrics since 2015? (Or two distinct systems involved?)

  2. 4 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

    Do nothing, and let the virus continue to spread and infect more widely, and there's still the vast majority of the country's population that have yet to be touched by the virus. Meaning lots more people who can be exposed, and lots more people who could face hospitalization and ultimately death, with the U.S. currently running about a 2.4% case fatality rate (meaning about 2.4% of the people confirmed to have the virus end up dying overall).

    There is some fairly credible research suggesting that the herd immunity threshold for Covid could be as low as 20% of the population (due to variations in the probability of exposure & susceptibility). As for the US CFR, it's shockingly high for one of the richest countries in the world. But that's the average over the whole period: I'd hope it's come down a lot for recent case (eg because treatment is improving &/ more testing is being done).

     

    Antibody data from a very specific group (eg dialysis patients, who presumably have been trying their best to avoid exposure) may not be very representative.

     

    (This isn't intended as a justification for a 'let it rip' herd immunity approach, but there's a lack of nuance in the media.)

  3. 8 hours ago, tlock said:

    I realize there is a 2-4 week window after spikes to see mortality, but if cases spike but the death rate remains relatively unchanged, that would indicate either the virus is weakening or our treatments are becoming more efficacious.

    1> Sweden's cases started to pick up (initially more gradually) from the start of Sept; that 'should be' plenty of time to work through to deaths.

    2> Some other possiblilities:

    - they've increased their testing rate (massively, eg 10x)

    - this wave is mainly a weaker strain (rather than the virus weakening generally)

    - the vulnerable groups are better protected/protecting themselves

    - the most vulnerable died in the first wave

    (Obviously I hope the reasons you suggested are correct...)

  4. 29 minutes ago, Kaoboi Bebobp said:

    numerous correlation/association studies indicating those with insufficient/deficient levels of Vit D seem to be far more vulnerable to respiratory infections.

    From what I've seen, the results for vit D from (the far smaller number) of interventional studies are  inconsistent at best; not what you'd expect if it actually 'works as expected'.

     

    There are numerous correlations between low blood 25- Hydroxy vitamin D and other (mostly chronic) illnesses, but dosing people with it rarely helps beyond a few years & I think the short term results are just symptomatic improvement due to immunosuppression. So vitamin D correlations/associtation are likely driven by some aspect of disease processes (ie something which both causes the disease and modifies vit D metabolism to reduce blood levels).

     

    I don't think there's good evidence for vitamin D for Covid prophylaxis, though like (also immunosuppressive) dexamethasone, tho there's a Spanish study showing it's helpful administered in 'stage 3' when there's massive lung inflammation. Before that, it's hard to see how immunosuppression could be helpful.

     

     As a 'risk factor' a low test might give you an idea of how much of a risk covid could be if you caught it.

     

    (Not a doctor, and this is not a conventional viewpoint, but I've been interested in vit D for about a decade.)

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