Hawaiian

"Could be worse." The way things are going most Thais are willing to take that risk.

My wife and I will not be traveling to Thailand this year to visit her 90+ year old father. Like many others, we are paying attention to the situation.

Then Hunter Biden decided he wanted in on the action.

The sanctions imposed are mostly against Putin and his buddies. Only targeting the oligarchs is not very effective. Every Russian bank should have been sanctioned. Access to SWIFT should have been immediately denied. Sanctions that were considered to hurt the general population were not imposed. Not playing hardball is not very smart. I believe Gknrd was responding to what might happen in a scenario where both sanctions AND a blockade were employed. As I mentioned, China is very reliant on imported food and fuel, whereas Russia is not.

One of the stories told is that if the West diverted manufacturing to China and partnered with Chinese companies the country would evolve to a form of democracy. As we well know now, Xi has become more authoritarian, and silences anyone who dares to challenge his leadership. We also know that the real motive in moving to China was money. So much money that it was worthwhile putting up with rampant corruption and industrial espionage. Lesson learned. Think not. The big boys are still there.

Losing access to the chips that TSMC produces is a major reason to protect Taiwan from China. People like GinBoy2 have been warning about this for quite awhile. Finally Congress has decided to act, hoping that Taiwan doesn't fall before U.S. chipmakers can start production. As far as I know, China still does not have the technology and equipment to make nano chips.

Patriotism usually gets thrown out the window when you and your loved ones have no food on the table. Have you seen videos of Chinese fighting against the police when they are denied access to the bare necessities? Have you seen how aggressive Chinese shoppers are when faced with limited food in the markets? Russia may side with China, but in actuality will do little to help. Historically, both countries have been at odds and do not trust each other. While I claim both Russian and Chinese ancestry it is ironic that I detest both countries.

Russia does not need to import oil nor food to feed its 145 million people while China has 1.4 billion hungry mouths to feed. How long do you think China will last if the tankers and the container ships of food stop coming? One of the goals of the Belt Road Initiative was to prevent this from happening. Ever wonder why you don't hear much about this gargantuan project anymore?

Let us hope that "yet" never comes. While China has a formidable military force Xi knows such a decision will not end well for China. China has few allies and most would be of little help.

Is Xi willing to risk the economic fallout if he invades Taiwan. Besides sanctions, the U.S. and its allies could impose a blockade that would disrupt shipping and devastate the Chinese economy and also affect its food supply. Only time will tell.

I tend to agree with everything you have said, especially about Japan's potential to become a force to reckon with. The U.S. alliance with the Japanese is the best bet to counter China's aggression. As you implied, China has internal problems that could take down the ruling CCP. Their economy has matured to the point that it is not able to meet the needs and expectations of its people. Don't hear much about the New Silk Road. It is a financial investment that is over ambitious and over extended. In other words, a money sinkhole.

At Walmart I buy a 12 pack box of Express brand ramen with 3 ounce packs for $2.88 which comes to 24 cents a pack vs. a 2.11 ounce pack of Mama for 23 cents (with the 2 baht raise) in Thailand. I have seen Mama sold at one Hawaii supermarket for 80 cent a pack which is more than 3 times the cost of the Express brand. I often use ramen mixed in with stir fry pork and vegetables, a dish my Thai wife likes.

Price here on the island of Hawaii is almost four times. Customers on another island pay even more.

Years ago before I knew the rules, I booked a round trip with a return flight which put me at 11 days overstay. I applied for a 7 day extension (maximum allowed) at 1900 baht. Immigration told me to pay the overstay fine upon departure which I did. The young women at the airport was all smiles when I had the 2,000 baht ready and she didn't have to explain anything to me. I have made over a dozen trips since then and never had a problem with immigration.

So did Ferdinand Marcos. Now it looks like his son Ferdinand Jr. (Bongbong) is reviving the Marcos Dynasty.

I am paying 60% more for fertilizer and almost double for herbicides.

Ever heard of being self insured? I have mandated health insurance (Medicare) plus Tricare. I cancelled my dental insurance because it's a scam. I pay my dentists before I leave his office even for expensive root canals and crowns. I am fully vaccinated and boosted. I tested positive four months ago and exhibited no symptoms. Why should I have to buy Covid19 insurance, especially by a company recommended by Siam Legal? I will not visit Thailand again until they get rid of the ridiculous Thai Pass requirement.

Some of our relatives in Thailand are paying B2000 a Pfizer shot rather than trusting Chinese rubbish.

I told my Thai girlfriend that I doubt very much we will be going to Thailand this year. I will not go until all the ridiculous requirements are rescinded. She will not go without me and agrees that the rules are a bunch of bureaucratic nonsense. Both of us have been exposed to the virus, tested positive, but were asymptomatic. We both had three shots of Pfizer.

Me, at 82 years of age, triple vaccinated, also tested positive in January. Luckily asymptomatic. Latest studies show that genetics determines who experiences the the most severe symptoms.

Putin is keeping the bulk of his air force out of the conflict just in case NATO decides to get involved. Now that Poland is promising to furnish inherited warplanes from the USSR era Putin is more inclined to keep his fighters in reserve to counter the new threat.

Mystery solved.

Not a good analogy. Why? One word. Alcohol!

That's right. The sanctions have frozen one half to two thirds of their foreign currency reserves, which will be drained faster than expected.

China has it's own financial problems and cannot carry Russia for any length of time. If sanctions are not very effective, why was Putin so upset that he mentioned them as one of the reasons for his veiled nuclear threat. The SWIFT sanctions are only partial. Cutting Russia off completely from SWIFT will have a devastating effect and Putin knows this. Russia's foreign exchange reserves can last only so long and then what? The rouble's fall is not over and it may take Putin down with it.