bingobongo

are you ready...................

Most economists predict rate rises in a handful of countries, including Taiwan and Thailand. However, the rises are expected to be limited to 25 or 50 basis points – below the expected acceleration in inflation.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2bd5775e-3321-11...?nclick_check=1

why buy now when you can get a lower price tomorrow, as the last leg (negative real interest rates) is removed from the bubble?

poor homedebtors wont know what hit them.......

inerest rates go up, commodity prices, and oversupplied condo bubble prices go down

BOT may hike rate by 25-50 basis points

The central bank will consider an increase of 25-50 basis points to the policy interest rate next month if this month's inflation rate continues at above 5 per cent, a financial source said last week.

http://nationmultimedia.com/2008/05/26/hea...es_30073936.php

BingoBongo/ kokothemonkey,

In Hua Hin & Cha Am the market has slowed a lot in the past year, I see it first hand being involved in it.

Houses are still selling steadily, it's just not the madness it was during the preceding 3 years.

Prices are still rising, there's no signs of them levelling out let alone dropping.

People who have bought are quite happy and many have seen significant increases in their investment.

Carry on, but what you are saying does not reflect reality IMHO.

Burgernev

PS: Just had a look at that GlobalHousePriceCrash site and koko/BingoBongo talking to himself over 15 pages Get over it mate.

hello "mate", not here to make friends "mate", just state the facts

don't hate the player, hate the game

your bargirls probably cost more than the last time you were in LOS, right there "mate"? by the way, how is the aussie real estate market these days? lol

In China, Thailand, the Philippines and at least eight other Asian economies, benchmark borrowing costs are lower than the rate of inflation, resulting in negative real interest rates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Hey, a question for you gurus, on something I don't quite understand.

Everyone is calling for Vietnam to devalue the dong, but wouldn't it be better to raise interest rates, tighten liquidity, and strenthen the dong, if the concern is an overheating economy and out of control inflation?

Lastly, you guys all talk like this is something dire. If you are an expat, then what exactly is so bad about it? 1) Most expats are paid in dollars, euros, etc. 2) I still think Vietnam is cheaper than Thailand, even with our 25% inflation, which I haven't really felt. 3) If the property bubble bursts, and the dong takes a nose dive, then that spells opportunity for us, not the despair which the locals will most likely feel. How many times have I read from Thai long termers that they wish they would have bought more land in 2000, or converted more money to Baht. How is this any different?

So gurus, please enlighten me.

uh, you missed the point, the dong is OVERVALUED due to inflation, the point being is that as this spreads, and the average Thai/Vietnamese/Chinese etc will take it on the chin, the credit markets will freeze, and a retrenching will occur which will cause quite a bit of pain

Vietnam May Accelerate Dong's Decline, Goldman Says

Deutsche Bank AG said the currency will weaken as much as 30 percent in the coming months, extending this year's 1.5 percent loss

``If inflation deteriorates further for a sustained period, local capital might flee into gold and the dollar, putting the domestic monetary system under stress,'' she wrote in the note.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

the dream is ending and soon it will be time to wake up................interest rates will rise (possibly as early as July 16) and, well you know what will happen to condo/housing prices unless you are deep in denial

good luck homedebtors, the last support of the real estate market (negative real interest rates) will soon be removed

Prices Rise in Indonesia, Thailand

The rise in Thailand's consumer-price index notched a 10-year high. The nation hasn't altered its monetary policy since last summer, but it may be forced to raise rates even as political tension mounts and the trade balance swings into deficit.

"Higher-than-expected inflation increases the likelihood that the central bank will raise its policy interest rate at its next meeting on July 16," said SCB Securities senior economist Pornthep Jubandhu.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1212433582...=googlenews_wsj

does anything really need to be said?

tick tick kiddies, are not the thai taxi drivers threatening to strike due to the same inflationary pressure?

Inflation Fuels Vietnam Strikes

A proliferation of labor strikes in Vietnam is dragging foreign manufacturers into the country's worsening inflation crisis, while Hanoi's Communist leaders struggle to keep rising prices under control.

Last year, foreign companies applied to invest $20 billion in Vietnam, a third more than in nearby Thailand, pushing up office rents and other costs.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1212404053...=googlenews_wsj

the little blue pill with that begins with "v", the bar girl in your lap, and a plate of som tham may help dull the pain temporarily, but then that would just postpone the reality...........

Vietnam: First domino in asia?

“I think (we could see) a much deeper and more prolonged slowdown than people are currently anticipating that lasts until the end of 2009, rather than being done shortly,” said Bill Belchere, regional economist with Macquarie in Hong Kong.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Invest...how/3090987.cms

thats gonna hurt.......interest rates will go up and housing values/paper profits/equity evaporates faster than a bargirls beauty

Thailand’s inflation rate soared to 7.6 per cent in May, the highest in nearly a decade, due to the unrelenting rise of oil prices.

According to the Commerce Ministry, May inflation was the highest since August 1998, prompting the Bank of Thailand to announce it would revise its economic growth and inflation rate forecast for the year.

can you smell the rot? basically investing anywhere BUT LOS would have been better, oil, gold, even Latvia, did I mention that the BOT raising rates is going to make it worse?

take your pick with or without inflation (raging at 10%+) LOS is dead money, dont even mention the politcal mess

even if yield is 7% on rentals, with 10%+ inflation and declining values, you actually lose money

In Thailand, political problems have led to weak economic growth and falling property prices.

ANNUAL HOUSE PRICE CHANGE (%), IN LOCAL CURRENCY TERMS

Thailand

2007* (LATEST) -0.78

END-2006 1.87

ANNUAL HOUSE PRICE CHANGE 2007* (%), ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION

Thailand

INFLATION-ADJUSTED -2.81

NOMINAL -0.78

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/investm...ref=patrick.net

i know delusion is some of the reasons folks deny reality, but i thought i'd pass this along, pertaining to Vietnam

Vietnam Faces Ratings Downgrade Amid an Overheating Economy

• Fitch lowered credit outlook from 'stable' to 'negative', BB- foreign currency rating on rising inflation, trade deficit, declining currency, inadequate policy responses and risks to banking sector; S&P also lowered foreign currency debt rating to 'negative' earlier on rising
  
• Central bank raising interest rate, curbing bank lending to control credit growth (from FX intervention, capital inflows, expansionary fiscal policy); govt imposing price/export controls, cutting import tariffs, spending - but with little success
  
• Stock market down by over 50% ytd, foreign investor sentiment weakened amid growing risks to growth
  
• Morgan Stanley (Via Bloomberg): Vietnam's stance to let currency appreciate to control inflation amid external deficit, low forex reserves will make it vulnerable to devaluation, currency crisis
  
• IMF: Increasing internal/external imbalances; import-led external deficit financed by portfolio inflows rather than FDI; global slowdown will impact growth and exports; need exchange rate flexibility, control of off-budget/pubic sector spending, supervision of bank lending
  
• Fiscal and monetary tightening, capital outflows on growing risk aversion will weigh down on growth
  
• Economist: Govt policies are raising prices in short-term but will make the economy more competitive in the long-run; higher interest rates, weaker export demand may overtime help reduce overheating pressures
  
• JP Morgan: Domestic /foreign investment-led growth; current a/c deficit will be financed by capital inflows; risks: impact of infrastructure and other spending on fiscal deficit, limited institutional capacity
  
• Other Risks: Weak banking sector w/ large dollarization, NPLs; capital inflows challenging monetary policy and dollar-pegged exchange rate
  

i guess overpriced, oversupplied condos do not bring contentment under crushing debt and the inability to afford food or gas due to rampant inflation

did i mention that interest rates will soon rise? LOL

Edge of despair

Mr Noppadon said the extensive poll results shows that mental stress is building up on Thai people in the face of economic problems and increasingly high living costs.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=127940

whats the rush? no matter what som chai the builder says

lets see, Hong Kong, Australia, Singapore and Vietnam.......and soon LOS will be added to the list

Home Buyers in Asia Play the Waiting Game

With prices expected to continue falling in Asia, it's no surprise that potential buyers are happy to play the waiting game.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/24886079

last time i checked, Vietnam had a more vibrant economy and no threat of coup as compared to LOS, rates will rise in Vietnam and LOS.......

dear lord, does the sexpat use his money for som tham or bar girl as both together are unaffordable

Vietnam Faces Growing Inflation Rates

Food and beverage costs rose by over 42 percent year-on-year, with the staple food rice and other grains up almost 68 percent in May compared to a year earlier, said the General Statistics Office.

http://news.newamericamedia.org/news/view_article.html?article_id=5d3b5e4d9acf5f58472671784ab48490

hello dreamers and donald trump "not gonna bes"

backflip, your (and other) personal attacks only confrim your frustration and futility, so keep attacking, that is a good gauge as to how bad things are in LOS, don't hate me because your paper profits are fading.....hate yourself

lets see, Hong Kong, Australia, Singapore and Vietnam.......and soon LOS will be added to the list

but let me guess, LOS is still special despite the civil unrest? LOL, go find some more suckers somewhere else

did I mention that interest rates will soon rise? LOL

Home Buyers in Asia Play the Waiting Game

With prices expected to continue falling in Asia, it's no surprise that potential buyers are happy to play the waiting game.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/24886079

backflip old friend, medication for delusions is available......

is this drop because:

1) the rich do not use mass transit

2) there is oversupply

3) the economy has hit the skids

4) the tanks may be about to roll

5) inflation is rampant and people need to eat as opposed to buying 4 walls and plaster

6) a rise in interest rates is expected to control inflation

Condominium sales on mass transit routes slows in Q1

Vasant Kongchan, the centre's managing director, said the total sales of condominiums in the city had dropped by 7 per cent on average.

The sales of condominiums situated on Ratchadaphisek Road nosedived by 46 per cent, those on Silom and Rama III roads dropped by 43 per cent and those on Onnuj Road fell by 14 per cent.

http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=4514

keep trying pkrv, the only people you will convince is yourself and the gullible

BOT will raise rates to contain the rampant LOS inflation and the impact will be fun for the solvent

let me guess backflip, "its a great time to buy", because LOS is "special" and "different"

interest rate will rise in LOS to curb the same rampant inflation.....

Slump leaves upmarket property speculators in the lurch

Prices fall back to pre-bubble levels on a combination of factors, and would-be millionaires hastily sell out to cut losses.

The downward spiral began when the government tightened monetary policy earlier this year to fight skyrocketing inflation.

http://www.thanhniennews.com/business/?cat...mp;newsid=38802

let me guess som tham and bar girls will keep LOS from the pain?

the beauty is that Vietnam has/had a more dynamic coup free envt than LOS

i wonder if "other" refers to LOS, maybe backflip's genius can enlighten us........NOT

Vietnam Inflation Crisis Is Feared

Vietnam's accelerating inflation is threatening to morph into a full-blown crisis, and it provides a warning to other Asian countries trying to tamp soaring prices.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1212066382...whats_news_asia

I think, soon, we will be able to rise our glasses to the people who were fascinated by the real estate market in Hanoi and Saigon ("more expensive than Bangkok, ouah ! but for real reasons, we have a deficit of supply, the demand explodes" etc. etc.)

Nothing changes. The same old story, over and over again.

cclub75 you might want to break out the champagne now and take away backflip's kool aid, as it has already started......

just for you backflip..........

Investors flee freezing property market in Vietnam metro

Investors who last year had hoped to ride the property wave to riches are now jumping ship.

As investors rush to make their money back through rapid sell-offs, prices have plummeted by as much as 40 percent, real estate traders said.

http://www.thanhniennews.com/business/?cat...mp;newsid=38171

keep trying backflip keep trying, vietnam banking system is on verge of collapse due to rampant inflation and once vietnam circles the bowl, the rest of asia will take it on the chin

inflation is rampant in LOS as well, and interest rates will rise, do not let your frustration pollute your thinking

dont hate me backflip because i am right, hate yourself because you are wrong

the amount of pain coming to asia will be surprising....vietnam going to raise rates to curb inflation and soon LOS will follow......good luck backflip you will soon need it.......the pain will spread as Vietnam burns itself out (and yes it will spread to LOS even without the coup part deux)

Vietnam's Interest Rates Must Exceed Inflation Rate, Fitch Says

Fitch lowered its debt-rating outlook on Vietnam to negative from stable yesterday, saying country's banking system may be at risk because of a slow government response to fighting inflation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

with oil and commodities prices rising up as they have, instead of getting richer, consumers are paying out more and more of their incomes to fill their tanks and feed their families.

so in terms of spending power, they are getting poorer. their ability to buy expensive housing (aka overpriced/oversupplied condo) is diminishing, not increasing

interest rates will rise and housing values/equity/inflation will fall no matter what somchai the builder says

Would this mean a stronger dollar and weaker baht? Oh yes, oh yes, oh yes....

very much so, go short the dong (nice pun eh), baht depends on when the tanks start rolling for coup part deux

From the Bangkok post.

Kobsak Pootrakul, the executive director of the SET Research Institute, said the latest CEO survey showed that 75% of listed company chief executives did not see the current government lasting more than one year, a sharp change from 45% in the last survey three months ago.

The survey covered 118 listed companies that collectively represent 60% of the total market capitalisation of the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

THE PERFECT STORM?!

PERFECT STORM sounds about right, when the baht weakens, oil will cost more as it is $ denominated, and inflation will worsen (for the locals that is), so the BOT will need to raise rates

Would this mean a stronger dollar and weaker baht? Oh yes, oh yes, oh yes....

very much so, go short the dong (nice pun eh), baht depends on when the tanks start rolling for coup part deux

didnt the crisis in 1997 start with a certain former asian tiger? it will be interesting to see the impact on LOS (on top of the potential coup part deux)

something wicked this way comes.........

Vietnam Moving Toward Forex Crisis, May Devalue Dong

BANGKOK -(Dow Jones)- Vietnam is veering toward a currency and banking crisis that could force a massive devaluation of the dong and trigger a rerun of East Asia's 1997 financial meltdown, an analyst at investment bank Morgan Stanley has warned.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/ar...90-873b53817174