oldcpu

11 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Schools cannot wait for all pupils to be vaccinated, it would be the only country in the world to do that. We all know they can spread it but if teachers, parents and household members are vaccinated the the risk is justifiable.

 

 

Well - I live in Phuket.  I know a number of expat parents who have ONLY received their first AZ jab, and have to wait two to three more weeks before their 2nd AZ jab.

I have also read article that claim one needs to wait a couple of weeks AFTER the 2nd AZ jab, before AZ vaccine can be considered have reached acceptable efficacy.  So we are thus looking at another month, before the household members are fully vaccinated.

This all takes time.

.

5 hours ago, IamNoone88 said:

There may be a small credit of the Sandbox side but more than half were returning expats who chose free and easy Phuket to ASQ Bangkok, so net that off revenue as that point has been ignore.

 

Well ... according to some on this Forum, Bangkok quarantine (for 2 weeks) was cheaper and easier and better than being in 'prison/quarantined' in Phuket.  That's NOT my opinion but I did read a number of posts of forum members who claimed such.

There is so much axe grinding and varied opinions on this forum ...  if it wasn't so sad to see (in this pandemic) it would be funny.

5 hours ago, club said:

When will Thailand stop the 14 day  quarantine for international travelers? 28,000 with only 88 positive cases comes out to be 0.3%. Pretty low infection rate or will this continue since this seems to be the only way hotels are making money.

IMHO its not an easy call to make wrt timing.  One can still find countries in the world that have a 3-week quarantine requirement for fully vaccinated foreign arrivals.

Still, I speculate it won't be relatively too long until one will see the quarantine requirement for fully vaccinated and recently tested travelers lifted, and such travelers allowed in without quarantine. Note though, there will be other aspects for Thailand to address (and come up with an appropriate approach), if something like what Phuket has implemented in its sandbox is followed. Phuket also requires they travelers install a tracking app, and undergo multiple 'relatively' expensive COVID tests ... Phuket also requires travelers stay in an SHA+ certified hotel for some days before leaving  which may be difficult to enforce if the the entire country is opened to travelers. 

I believe in the coming months we will learn how this is adopted.

23 hours ago, Guderian said:

The population of Phuket is around 400,000

No ... 400,000 is wrong. Simply wrong.

The population of Phuket is closer to 600,000 (including children age 12-18) and quite possibly closer to 650,000 if all children included.

24 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Onward and upward...and the island is not even open to anyone but vaccinated people.

Well

(1) there are MANY who are still not yet fully vaccinated,  and

(2) NONE of the vaccines, not one, are 100% effective at preventing infection - and NONE of the vaccines are 100% effective at preventing death.

As opposed to preventing infections, the vaccines are better at reducing the risk of serious illness and they are better reducing the risk of death.

So everyone does the best they can ....  the situation is dynamic.

Closing the island to only vaccinated (with no quarantine), is not a surprise, and many other places in the world are now adopting something similar, if one wishes to avoid a quarantine.  And one can still find a country that require a 3-week quarantine, even IF fully vaccinated.

14 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I'm missing the same thing, whats been the whole point of this exercise if most things are still restricted and schools are still closed despite all teachers being vaccinated?

I suspect schools are still closed because the children can still catch and spread the virus (even if they tend to be more asymptomatic) and they can spread the virus to a large % of the population that have not yet been fully vaccinated.

If a child catches the virus, brings it back home, and both parents catch the virus, who will look after the child?

i.e. "the exercise", to provide better defense to society against the pandemic, is still ongoing.  I would say that is 'the point' and its ongoing.

Sadly there is no easy quick solution.

Quote

 

I agree its all down to ensuring hospitals remain at a capacity that allows normal interventions for the general public. 

That, and staying alive and reducing the pandemic spread, while % resistance to this pandemic (either via vaccine, or already having caught, or other (?) means) takes place.

19 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

AZ by the way provides very good protection against Delta,

I hope so - as I had my 1st AZ end-June, and go for my 2nd AZ in mid-September.   I don't have much confidence in my 1 AZ jab (against Delta) but my hope is if my mid-Sep 2nd AZ jab takes place on schedule, then by October I should have some help from AZ to reduce risk of serious infection and reduce risk against death against this virus.  Currently I mostly self isolate, and like some friends of mine, I also try to eat healthy, and stay physically fit.  ... This pandemic has giving my 67-year old bones more motivation to go for a 5km jog early every morning  - more motivation than I confess I had in the past.

12 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

So it should be, it’s also the highest vaxxed province in Thailand that’s why I said it was worrying.

My view is the weekly increasing numbers of new cases in Phuket (as compared to the rest of Thailand where we are now seeing decreases) is due to:

1.  Phuket having less of a lock down/restriction (than the rest of Thailand), and

2. also due to Phuket vaccination numbers 'exaggerated via statistical spin' (ie many more people in Phuket still to be vaccinated), and

3.  also due to the delta variant rendering infection catching protections hoped to be provided by Sinovac/AstraZeneca to be NOT as good (as these vaccines were against Alpha variant).

I do note that Phuket has about 1/2 the # of deaths per infections (as the rest of Thailand on average) , and I speculate that is due to these vaccinations still helping to reduce serious symptoms and reduce deaths.

Of course that is speculation on my part ... and as the days / weeks go by, likely we will see how far off , or how close, that speculation might be.

This pandemic is very ugly in terms of how we are all being affected.

.

I am happy to see some more statistics on the vaccines given in Phuket released (such was in this article) .... I wish that there was more such information provided..

4 hours ago, Trujillo said:

 

As for antigen tests, a local, large chain pharmacy here has a sign (in Thai only) that says they will not sell antigen test kits. I asked why and the answer was: "The manager doesn't want sick people coming into the store," ... yet they sell ivermectin.... go figure. 

It is bizarre.

I think thou, that some people who are not sick do buy ivermectin.

I note I have an acquaintence, with opposite views from myself (where the friend is an anti-vaxer who has recovered from the virus) who is a big believer in ivermectin, and since his recovery, he takes ivermectin (on his own accord despite recommendations to the contrary) as a preventative to avoid being re-infected.  I have another anti-vaxer friend, who has yet to be infected, who also takes invermectin as a preventative. 

My view is they are both taking a placebo, or worse. .... One thing they do have going for them is they both eating health and stay very fit, which is a far more effective measure than ivermectin IMHO.

They didn't and don't listen to my recommendations to go get vaccinated.

14 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

241 new cases announced for today and 3 new deaths, day before there were 4 deaths so 7 covid deaths in 2 days for a small island population is not good.

Indeed - I think we all agree this is not good, ... this pandemic is global and it is hurting globally.  I think we are all saddened by each and every death.

Still, on average, Phuket has done better wrt % capita deaths than the Thailand average.

Phuket - I note a total deaths 27 (since Apr 3) and 5,495 infected.  So that is 0.49% of those infected died.

Thailand (average) - I note currently a Thailand death toll at 12,948 during 3rd wave, and 1,265,659 cases. So that is 1.02% of those infected died.

So if my 'back of the envelope' calculations are accurate, despite the very sad deaths in Phuket, and despite the disturbing weekly increasing number of new infections being discovered in Phuket, the Island is still doing better (by about 2x) (or half the # of deaths per capita infections) than the rest of Thailand on a per capita basis for the # of deaths.  

8 hours ago, Swimfan said:

Just need to look at Phuket. Almost exclusively vaccinated with Sinovac and hospitals almost at capacity. 

Exclusively vaccinated with Sinovac is an exaggeration, although granted about 5x as many Sinovac as AstraZeneca doses were given in Phuket. But that is far from exclusively.

Also, important to note wrt the hospitals, field hospitals, and hospitels in Phuket (which are at close to 80% and not full capacity),  the VAST majority of those in such facilities have moderate to mild symptoms, and some with no symptoms.

Likely (if not already started) Phuket will start sending people in the facilities (who are still infected but with no symptoms) home to a required 2 week or so self isolation, in order to free up more beds. They are already doing this in other provinces.

On 8/15/2021 at 9:50 AM, oldcpu said:

...   Still, I note according to that June-2021 Phuket news article, current estimates (where I assume this is people age-18 and older):
* about 310,000 people registered in Phuket
* about 100,000 people registered in other provinces who work in Phuket
* about  74,000 migrant workers or expats
...
which adds up to 484,000 people by my calculation.   This exceeds the 466,000 island population estimate the article also mentions.  However this is NOT all the people in Phuket.

 

The article also notes about 107,000 children under age-18. So 107,000 + 484,000 = 591,000, ... or about 600,000 people in Phuket, including children.

 

 

Further to this 600,000 estimate, I note now a recent Phuket news article  https://www.thephuketnews.com/pfizer-injections-begin-in-phuket-81309.php is stating a new target total of 547,584 representing the total registered population on the Island to be vaccinated.

I assume that includes (in addition to nominal Phuket registered residents)  migrant workers who registered for the vaccine, assume that includes expats who registered for the vaccine,  assume that includes people from other provinces who registered in Phuket for the vaccine.  Those are my assumptions.

The question for me now, is does it include children?  If one assumes 107,000 children under age-18, then how many are under age-12 ? and how many are age-12 to 18?  And does the 547,584 include children age 12-to-18 ? 

This now has me thinking the population of Phuket, if children are included, could be anywhere from 600,000 to 650,000  (where the 600,000 assumes children age 12-to-18 are in the 547,584 number, and the 650,000 assumes no children under age-18 are in the 547,584 number).

It makes me think even more - no one truly knows the exact population of Phuket at present time.

2 hours ago, Bob12345 said:

Just as we don't shut down highways when someone dies in a car crash.

 

They do shut down or modify the road if people are constantly dying at that location. 

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Although that is for the 3rd booster shot only in Cambodia. This thread is about first shot sinovac followed by second shot AZ

There has also been mention (albeit not in the initial article) in Thailand of giving AstraZeneca as a booster to two Sinovac in Thailand.   In fact, I have read articles of that being done already.  Further - personal family experience: My niece, a front line nurse in Thailand (in a hospital that was over-booked with COVID patients), after 2 Sinovac, was booked for AstraZeneca as her booster jab. The day she went in for her AstraZeneca booster, she was given the choice, AstraZeneca or Pfizer?  She chose Pfizer as a booster.

Further, its not clear to me if the Philippines study on using AstraZeneca (and also other vaccines) as a mix with Sinovac is as a booster jab or as a second jab ?

Also, as I mentioned already, I would be very surprised if China has not studied AstraZeneca as a 2nd jab, and as a booster - although i suspect China might have political issues in using a non-Chinese vaccine as a 2nd jab or booster.   

Sadly, there is a lot of politics associated with vaccine distribution.

2 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

I also have not read of many (any?) cases, although I believe Cambodia is planning to mix Sinovac and AstraZeneca :

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/3143399/coronavirus-cambodia-mix-sinovac-astrazeneca-vaccine-shots-boosters

 

 

Here is another article that claims Cambodia has mixed Sinvovac with AstraZeneca:

https://news.yahoo.com/factbox-countries-weigh-mix-match-090454706.html

I have not found any other references of countries doing this mixing - although I would surprised if China has not investigated this.

16 minutes ago, Chernsarmkhuat said:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/19/mixing-covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know    Guess you didn't read this then. I can only find 1 country mixing Sinovac and AZ.

 

I also have not read of many (any?) cases, although I believe Cambodia is planning to mix Sinovac and AstraZeneca :

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/3143399/coronavirus-cambodia-mix-sinovac-astrazeneca-vaccine-shots-boosters

Supposedly there is a Philippines study of mixing Sinovac with other vaccines, but I have not been able to find such:

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/covid-19-vaccine-mixing-astrazeneca-pfizer/

54 minutes ago, MrJ2U said:

A peer review is necessary.

No Thais believe there   "Studies".

Well - I know many Thais. Some believe - some don't believe.

So when you say "No Thais" , IMHO you could not be more wrong. 

6 hours ago, nausea said:

Are there any scientific studies validating this position? I did read about some studies on an AZ/Pfizer combo., but Pfizer is a RNA (mRNA) vaccine, so not really applicable to a Sinopharm (whole virus vaccine)/AZ (non-replicating viral vector) mix.

Yes .. there has been Sinovac followed by AZ (2nd dose) study.

8 hours ago, RobU said:

Good point. My understanding is that a work permit is required for any work including volunteer work

I think thou, one can remain on their Non-Immigration O or OA visa if doing volunteer work.  One does need to meet other critieria, such as providing appropriate documentation to immigration (passport copy, fill in some custom form, evidence of a certain amount of funds, letter from employer where one is doing volunteer work, and address where one lives).  I may have the details inexact - but I think it is something like that.  Given the Immigration volunteers are working for immigration, I suspect this is rather simple requirement for these volunteers to meet. I assume immigration then given them the appropriate (work) permit to be volunteers supporting immigration.

18 hours ago, carlf said:

Thanks for this info.  Interesting.... troubling.  It's in contradiction with a recent article that I read in Le Monde (https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2021/07/29/peut-on-transmettre-le-covid-19-en-etant-vaccine_6089910_4355770.html  ... sorry, in French).  

I read that article in LeMonde (with help from Google Chrome translate) and I confess, I fail to see the contradiction.