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oldcpu

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Posts posted by oldcpu

  1. 16 hours ago, beachbuggy said:

    Anyone seen the data proving this please

    Since you asked ...  although this may not be the study referred to, but it is one in progress that says the same thing.  I've posted this a few times already on this forum, so my apologies for those who have seen it already - but it reads like many have not seen it.

     

    The article referencing the on-going study is in a Thai language news source:  https://mgronline.com/qol/detail/9640000072391   ... perhaps if one is curious to read, the Chrome browser will provide an automatic translation.

     

    Here is a chart from that study ... please note the Pfizer plot should be ignored as it has insufficient data to illustrate the Pfizer COVID vaccine is a superior vaccine (at least I believe it to be superior). .... Note in the image below, that clearly 1xSinovac + 1xAstraZenec is very similar to getting 2xAstraZeneca in terms of Anti-body count.

     

     

    2021-07_thai-study-800w.jpg

    • Like 1
  2. 14 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

    No Alcohol equals no tourists, except for the rare non drinkers from a few countries.

    Most of us like our drinks while we are on holidays.

    Rare non drinkers ....  Rare?  ... ????????   Its incredible as to how many "rare" people I know.   ????

     

    IMHO whats more sad is a lot of restaurant profit comes from selling alcohol ... so that source of income/profit for restaurants that are currently suffering badly, is not available at present

  3. 2 hours ago, Sticky Rice Balls said:

    Interesting - although if I read the article correctly, this hypothetical "Thai COVID pass" is still in the planning stages.

     

    The article also mentions measures taken in the "Dark Red" zones, which remind me of last year in Phuket (albeit not as strict as there are no subdistrict border closures mentioned):

     

    Quote

     

    Disease control for dark red:

     

    Disease control measures include…

    • No interprovincial public transportation services.
    • Stay at home from 9pm to 4am.
    • Restaurants must only open for delivery services and must close by 8pm.
    • Non-essential stores in shopping centres must remain closed. Restaurants can open for delivery services only. Supermarkets and pharmacies inside the malls must close by 8pm. Banks and financial institutions must close by 8pm.
    • Sports venues and stadiums must close.
    • Beauty clinics and massage parlours must close.

     

    Fortunately Phuket, as an Orange zone, while 'ugly', is not as bad as the 'Dark Red' for restrictions that are deemed necessary.

     

    My noted friend in this thread needs to go from Phuket (Orange) to a 'Dark Red' zone, and then back to Phuket, and interprovincial transport services being closed complicates this for him a lot. 

     

  4. 3 hours ago, oldcpu said:

    I have an expat friend who is a resident of Phuket, who needs to leave Phuket for a few days (with a valid non-tourist reason, but not in the defined 'essential' list).  To try and optimize his chances of being assured to allow to return to Phuket, he has gone to the local city hall of his Phuket sub-district, to get a letter authorizing him to leave and return (he is not one of the identified 'essential' categories).

    Thinking about this some more, I believe this Phuket official subdistrict letter in essence puts him under the "exceptions" clause and not under the Phuket residents reentry clause, ... i.e it's likely he doesn't need this letter ( unless Phuket entry regulations are tightened again in this dynamic pandemic situation). ... ie the friend is just being ultra conservative to ensure he can re-enter Phuket.

  5. 39 minutes ago, BMW Overlander said:

    I presented the Thai driving license with my Phuket address and was waved through.

    That's good news !

     

    Did you also have to show proof of vaccination and a recent COVID test (negative test result)?

    • Like 1
  6. I have an expat friend who is a resident of Phuket, who needs to leave Phuket for a few days (with a valid non-tourist reason, but not in the defined 'essential' list).  To try and optimize his chances of being assured to allow to return to Phuket, he has gone to the local city hall of his Phuket sub-district, to get a letter authorizing him to leave and return (he is not one of the identified 'essential' categories).


    He has been vaccinated (1 jab AstraZeneca).  He noted his yellow book ( 'tabien baan' ) has enabled him to get the letter (and he beleves that his 'pink ID' also helped a bit in proving his residence, although I suspect the 'pink-ID' was not needed, but rather passport obviously essential - but heck, if it helps, it helps ).  


    He noted another westerner, at the same time as him, trying the same thing (who had a driver's license but not a yellow book) was refused such a letter by the local city hall (ie this westerner's Thai driver's license was not sufficient, despite it having the Phuket address on it).


    He leaves Phuket soon.  I should know within a week if he is able to return successfully.  I have my finger's crossed for him to have good luck

    • Thanks 1
  7. 1 hour ago, oldcpu said:

    Some of us actually like Phuket, especially now with no tourist crowds, empty beaches, light road traffic, and some amazing prices.

     

    But if drinking in the bars and restaurants is needed for ones ideal vacation , then Phuket (nor anywhere in Thailand) is not the place

    Let me amplify the last sentence as I thought the 'present time' meaning obvious - but maybe it wasn't. So that last sentence should read:

     

      " ... if drinking in the bars and restaurants is needed for ones ideal vacation , then Phuket (nor anywhere in Thailand) is not the place at present time. " ..

    • Like 1
  8. 11 hours ago, dougiemac52 said:

    How are they not stuck ? No transport away from Phuket, that sounds like trapped to me

    Some of us actually like Phuket, especially now with no tourist crowds, empty beaches, light road traffic, and some amazing prices.

     

    But if drinking in the bars and restaurants is needed for ones ideal vacation , then Phuket (nor anywhere in Thailand) is not the place

    • Like 1
    • Confused 1
  9. 2 hours ago, pagallim said:

    There hasn't been a previous definition of domestic tourist and/or visitor.   There hasn't been any change from the current criteria, i.e. if you have the vaccination history and a negative test, you could and can enter Phuket. 

    I do not believe that is accurate.  It was true for a short time, but then on 2-August (?) the restrictions were increased, and non-essential fully vaccinated domestic travelers to Phuket were not allowed to enter.  For a few days after, each day, hundreds were turned away at Sarasin bridge (according to the local press).

     

    THere is an older Thaiger link to the article noting Phuket was closed to domestic travelers.  It didn't matter if fully vaccinated or not.

    https://thethaiger.com/news/phuket/domestic-travel-to-phuket-all-but-banned-starting-august-2

     

    Edit: Just a further amplification, those who are considered 'essential' and on the exception list, also have to be fully vaccinated AND have had a recent COVID test.  Its easy to misread the article.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  10. 21 minutes ago, Espanol said:

    https://www.thaipbsworld.com/phuket-extends-restrictions-for-14-days-due-to-high-numbers-of-new-covid-19-cases/

     

    "Phuket has extended its restrictions until the end of August, including the sealing off of the island to outsiders, with some exceptions, due to continuing high numbers of new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases.

     

    The exceptions are Phuket residents, visitors related to the “sandbox” scheme, and people who have been vaccinated with 2 shots of Sinovac or at least one shot of AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson at least 14 days prior to arrival, or those who have recovered from COVID-19 for at least 90 days. The visitors have to produce negative RT-PCR or Antigen test results not older than 72 hours."

     

    If this is correct, anyone can enter now Phuket from mainland if fully vaccinated and negative PCR. 

    My Thai wife claims that is a poor translation ( or ambiguous English writing) in the Thai PBS article and that Phuket remains closed to domestic tourists according to the original official Thai language.

    • Like 2
    • Sad 1
  11. 1 hour ago, anchadian said:

    The exceptions are Phuket residents, visitors related to the “sandbox” scheme, and people who have been vaccinated.

    https://twitter.com/ThaiPBSWorld/status/1426765249068240898

     

    Thanks ... I don't plan to leave the Island, but I am curious as to what proof they will ask for to prove residency for any foreigner ('resident' of Phuket) who does return to Phuket.

     

    I wonder if for Thai people it may (in part) be the "Blue Book" ... and I also wonder if foreign (non-immigrant or work-visa) who have a Yellow Book (indicating the place where they are resident) could use that as proof of them being considered a Phuket resident? 

     

    If after this update becomes effective, I would be most curious to read of the experience of any foreigner/resident of Phuket in returning to Phuket (after having left).

    • Like 2
  12. I note:

    Quote

    Russian authorities are prepared to donate 100,000 doses of Sputnik vaccine as booster doses for Phuket people, he said. 

    That's very kind of the Russians.

     

    Still - it would be nice to have seen one or two peer reviewed studies that show Sputnik vaccine as a booster for 2xSinovac, or for 2xAstraZeneca, or for Sinovac/AstraZeneca ...   ie. would a Sputnik booster actually be beneficial over other alternatives?

     

    ... Not wanting to ignore a gift, but some evidence that it is a useful gift would help give more confidence.

    • Thanks 1
  13. On 7/30/2021 at 11:07 AM, DaveC said:

     

    I don't know that the population figures you quote include itinerants living on the island. 

     

    I do know that the Phuket News has highlighted the figures I mention and I would be very surprised if 446,000 out of 466,000 eligible had already registered.

    I prefer to correct myself when I am wrong ... and it appears to me that your estimate of Phuket's population was closer than mine.

     

    For some time, even before this  exchange of Phuket population estimates, I've been curious about the population of Phuket.  

     

    I stumbled across this 17-June-2021 ThePhuket News article, which suggests your estimates of the Phuket population is closer to mine - and so I stand corrected, and further, if I offended at any time in my previous post, I apologize, ...  as that was not my intention to offend.

     

    https://www.thephuketnews.com/officials-change-definition-of-population-of-phuket-claim-island-74-vaccinated-80369.php

     

    The numbers in Phuket news don't exactly add up, which I guess is no surprise.  I don't think any one really knows the population of Phuket, given last years exodus of people leaving Phuket. ...   Still, I note according to that June-2021 Phuket news article, current estimates (where I assume this is people age-18 and older):
    * about 310,000 people registered in Phuket
    * about 100,000 people registered in other provinces who work in Phuket
    * about  74,000 migrant workers or expats
    ...
    which adds up to 484,000 people by my calculation.   This exceeds the 466,000 island population estimate the article also mentions.  However this is NOT all the people in Phuket.

     

    The article also notes about 107,000 children under age-18. So 107,000 + 484,000 = 591,000, ... or about 600,000 people in Phuket, including children.

     

    The article gives more numbers, confusing this further, but I now prefer to assume a population of 600,000 people in Phuket.

     

    If one then looks at the 13-August report for Phuket vaccination status, where the target figure was 466,587 planned to be vaccinated where only 460,302 had registered for a vaccination, of which 424,637 had received one jab and 327,224 received 2 jabs.  

     

    My calculation has 466,587 of 600,000 is a target figure of only about 77% of the Island's population planned to be vaccinated.

     

    So as of 13-August-2021:

    * 1 jab of 424,637 is about 70% of total population have received 1 jab.
    * 2 jabs of 327,224 is about 54% of total population have received 2 jabs.

     

    where this very unofficial and very rough estimate includes children and includes migrant workers/foreigners when trying to calculate the percentages.

     

    I note that as many as 107,000 children in Phuket was a surprise to me.

     

    I think my revised estimates are now much closer to what you were saying, than closer to what I had previously estimated (where my estimates were based on a smaller estimate of people in Phuket).

     

    I didn't need to post this, but I prefer to correct my mistakes when I find them.

  14. On 8/10/2021 at 12:14 PM, Ryan754326 said:

    The point is, that if you’re vaccinated, you are protected as well as possible for the time being, but the variants will continue to pop up, and most experts agree that covid isn’t going away, and that we’ll have to learn to live with it. The way it looks to me, is that the people who can’t deal with their own fears want to control other peoples behavior in order to soothe their own anxieties. If we let the most fearful in society dictate the policies, then I think we’ll be wearing masks and avoiding social contact forever, regardless of what percentage of the Earth’s population we manage to vaccinate.  

    I see your point, but I am not convinced you understand fully the point of the vaccinated.

     

    Anyone who gets sufficiently sick from this virus, such that they need to be hospitalized, means one less bed in a hospital for people who don't have the virus - and this could cause non-COVID related deaths because those people could not get the hospital attention they needed.

     

    Further anyone who gets sufficiently sick from this virus, such that they can't go to work, means those remaining in the office may need to work more (to make up for having less employees) and ultimately this could cause the company to lose money ... indeed cause many companies to lose money ... potentially damaging the economy ...

     

    Further, the vaccinated while not immune to the virus, feel they are slightly less likely to catch the virus ('slightly' supported I believe by statistics) and know they could still catch the virus (albeit less likely than the unvaccinated) and still could get very sick (albeit less likely than the unvaccinated) and at this point we start getting into the fearful points you note.  The vaccinated believe their odds are better if the unvaccinated were to change their mind to get vaccinated.

     

    To be clear - my own view is if someone does not want to be vaccinated, then let them remain unvaccinated.  BUT I also tend to side with policies where (if the business owners want, or if the majority present want) then unvaccinated may not be allowed in some locations/transports, because they are not unvaccinated, and a vaccinated majority does not want them there.  Note the word "may" - as obviously (to me) there MUST be exceptions.    I do think thou, if the majority end up vaccinated, and if we let a minority of unvaccinated dictate the polices, then we are going down the wrong road for a democracy.

    - -

    Edit: Note I include with the 'vaccinated' those who were originally un-vaccinated and who caught the virus and  successfull recovered. I treat their recovery just as good if not better than a vaccination.  I do thou see it as a very risky way to attain similar status.

    • Like 1
  15. 2 minutes ago, cyril sneer said:

    I didn’t read your reply, you just sound bored and like to bicker at peoples posts for your own enjoyment 

    No. It was you who inaccurately replied, quoting a post of mine ... and I will quote your post :


     

    Quote

     

    doesn't matter which vaccine you get now, it won't be recognised by the west for years for travel purposes

     

    Thailand could be bottom of the list of countries where the vaccines given are recognised as genuine

     

    So I was replying to someone who specifically and inexactly, replied to a post of mine.

     

    And your ultimate response?  You cast insults when your logic fails.

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