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Posts posted by oldcpu
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6 minutes ago, Srikcir said:
Didn't the government recently recommend for medical workers vaccinated with SV followed by AZ to get a Pfizer booster?
Even Pfizer and Moderna, are recommending to people who received 2 of their jabs, to go get a booster of their jabs.
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3 hours ago, IamNoone88 said:So if;
sinovac + sinovac = low efficacy vs Delta
sinovac + Astra Zenica = Better efficacy
Then, by deduction, Astra Zenica + Astra Zenica = Even better efficacy
Actually, according to an on-going study, 1xSinovac+1xAstraZeneca is almost as good in Anti-body count, as 2xAstraZeneca. While I personally believe 2xAstraZeneca is better with marginally better anti-body count, I note 'politically' AstraZeneca (2 jabs) is more accepted globally than a Sinovac/AstraZeneca mix - although even two AstraZeneca (from Thailand) is not accepted by all countries (such as not yet accepted by the EMA (European Medical Association)).
Further, also note, Thailand can not get the amount of AstraZeneca it wants from the local Thai AstraZeneca production (as that facility has contracts to deliver AstraZeneca produced in Thailand to other Asian countries).
Further, other than the USA donation, Thailand can not get foreign produced mRNA vaccines now, and at most might get some in Q4-2021 or Q1-2022. How many people will die waiting for Q1-2022??
Further even if Thailand could get more AstraZeneca, it is 8 to 12 weeks between jabs. In contrast, mixing Sinovac + AstraZeneca is 3 to 4 weeks between jabs - ie mixing can be applied quicker for similar efficacy to 2xAstraZeneca - and mixing will likely thus save lives.
So since Thailand can get Sinovac now, then by combining 1-Sinovac + 1-AstraZeneca, Thailand can vaccinate faster more of its population.
Do I think Pfizer/Moderna would be better ? Of course !!
Is Pfizer/Moderna available now in Thailand? No.
What is the use of a vaccine if it is not available?
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1 hour ago, stupidfarang said:
I think they are talking about AZ working after the first has failed so the statement is correct lol
No - actually there is a study (see above).
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16 hours ago, beachbuggy said:
Anyone seen the data proving this please
Since you asked ... although this may not be the study referred to, but it is one in progress that says the same thing. I've posted this a few times already on this forum, so my apologies for those who have seen it already - but it reads like many have not seen it.
The article referencing the on-going study is in a Thai language news source: https://mgronline.com/qol/detail/9640000072391 ... perhaps if one is curious to read, the Chrome browser will provide an automatic translation.
Here is a chart from that study ... please note the Pfizer plot should be ignored as it has insufficient data to illustrate the Pfizer COVID vaccine is a superior vaccine (at least I believe it to be superior). .... Note in the image below, that clearly 1xSinovac + 1xAstraZenec is very similar to getting 2xAstraZeneca in terms of Anti-body count.
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14 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:
No Alcohol equals no tourists, except for the rare non drinkers from a few countries.
Most of us like our drinks while we are on holidays.
Rare non drinkers .... Rare? ... ???????? Its incredible as to how many "rare" people I know. ????
IMHO whats more sad is a lot of restaurant profit comes from selling alcohol ... so that source of income/profit for restaurants that are currently suffering badly, is not available at present
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2 hours ago, Sticky Rice Balls said:
Interesting - although if I read the article correctly, this hypothetical "Thai COVID pass" is still in the planning stages.
The article also mentions measures taken in the "Dark Red" zones, which remind me of last year in Phuket (albeit not as strict as there are no subdistrict border closures mentioned):
QuoteDisease control for dark red:
Disease control measures include…
- No interprovincial public transportation services.
- Stay at home from 9pm to 4am.
- Restaurants must only open for delivery services and must close by 8pm.
- Non-essential stores in shopping centres must remain closed. Restaurants can open for delivery services only. Supermarkets and pharmacies inside the malls must close by 8pm. Banks and financial institutions must close by 8pm.
- Sports venues and stadiums must close.
- Beauty clinics and massage parlours must close.
Fortunately Phuket, as an Orange zone, while 'ugly', is not as bad as the 'Dark Red' for restrictions that are deemed necessary.
My noted friend in this thread needs to go from Phuket (Orange) to a 'Dark Red' zone, and then back to Phuket, and interprovincial transport services being closed complicates this for him a lot.
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3 hours ago, oldcpu said:
I have an expat friend who is a resident of Phuket, who needs to leave Phuket for a few days (with a valid non-tourist reason, but not in the defined 'essential' list). To try and optimize his chances of being assured to allow to return to Phuket, he has gone to the local city hall of his Phuket sub-district, to get a letter authorizing him to leave and return (he is not one of the identified 'essential' categories).
Thinking about this some more, I believe this Phuket official subdistrict letter in essence puts him under the "exceptions" clause and not under the Phuket residents reentry clause, ... i.e it's likely he doesn't need this letter ( unless Phuket entry regulations are tightened again in this dynamic pandemic situation). ... ie the friend is just being ultra conservative to ensure he can re-enter Phuket.
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39 minutes ago, BMW Overlander said:
I presented the Thai driving license with my Phuket address and was waved through.
That's good news !
Did you also have to show proof of vaccination and a recent COVID test (negative test result)?
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I have an expat friend who is a resident of Phuket, who needs to leave Phuket for a few days (with a valid non-tourist reason, but not in the defined 'essential' list). To try and optimize his chances of being assured to allow to return to Phuket, he has gone to the local city hall of his Phuket sub-district, to get a letter authorizing him to leave and return (he is not one of the identified 'essential' categories).
He has been vaccinated (1 jab AstraZeneca). He noted his yellow book ( 'tabien baan' ) has enabled him to get the letter (and he beleves that his 'pink ID' also helped a bit in proving his residence, although I suspect the 'pink-ID' was not needed, but rather passport obviously essential - but heck, if it helps, it helps ).
He noted another westerner, at the same time as him, trying the same thing (who had a driver's license but not a yellow book) was refused such a letter by the local city hall (ie this westerner's Thai driver's license was not sufficient, despite it having the Phuket address on it).
He leaves Phuket soon. I should know within a week if he is able to return successfully. I have my finger's crossed for him to have good luck- 1
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2 hours ago, Mickeymaus said:"The exceptions are Phuket residents, visitors related to the “sandbox” scheme, and people who have been vaccinated with 2 shots of Sinovac or at least one shot of AstraZeneca"
The news also has that wrong from what I have been told by those who read the official Thai language announcement.
Not just anyone who has been fully vaccinated and tested can enter the island ... ie Phuket is still closed to domestic tourists even if fully vaccinated and tested. But to read that article one would think otherwise.
It's classic poor reporting by news media too much in a rush to print their story with out getting their facts straight.
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The issuing of drivers licenses and renewal of driver's licenses has now stopped in Phuket. My Thai wife told me this a week ago (as she read it in local Thai language news) but I have only seen this today in Phuket news: https://www.thephuketnews.com/issuing-of-new-renewed-driving-licences-back-on-ice-81061.php
I feel very fortunate that I was able to have my license renewed prior to the renewals having stopped. Of course they note the police have been asked not to 'charge' people with expired licenses, ... but I feel better having a current license in case stopped (I am always a bit paranoid about being asked for 'tea' money when not required).
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42 minutes ago, impulse said:I'm wondering if anyone on the ground has noticed any uptick in the price or frequency of longtail trips to/from Phuket?
I live in a beachfront condo that over looks Chalong Bay, with a good view of the Chalong and Rawaii coast line. Occasionally I visit AoYon beach.
I can say for Chalong Bay and AoYon, that the long tail boat traffic is a small fraction of the frequency seen before before the pandemic. There has been no uptick in the past weeks since access to the Island for domestic travel was limited (in the beaches/waters that I have seen). The frequency is so low, that any longtail boat really stands out (both visually and with its noise) when it motors by.
I can't comment on the price but I suspect one can get very good prices now for a longtail boat + driver rental.
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1 hour ago, Deli said:A sealed off island with cases rising... the mind boggle. Why aren't delivery guys entering the island strictly controled ? Where does the Chinese virus enter ? For sure not by Sandbox tourists...
Unfortunately the virus spread undetected (due to inadequate # of testing, and loose entry requirements for domestic travel) before and also for a brief time after the Sandbox opened.
When the Sandbox 1st opened, the international travelers had massive restrictions/requirements to meet, while in comparison, domestic travelers to Phuket had minimal (I think only a test in the last 72 hours, and it may be been in the last 7 days ??? < unsure > ).
I recall reading on another forum many noting the silliness of that approach.
So then the local government tightened the restrictions, and required anyone coming to prove they were vaccinated with 1 AZ ... or with 2-Sinovac ... or with a negative test ... Soon after that it was changed to vaccinated AND a negative test.
By then thou, IMHO it was too late. The virus was in Phuket and spreading, not detected due to not enough testing IMHO. In June Phuket averaged about 100 tests/day, and in July only about 200 tests/day. Again, IMHO, this was not enough testing to detect the 'festering' pandemic in the Island.
So being sealed off means the pandemic that is spreading in Phuket won't have as many new domestic travelers coming to Phuket to spread the virus - and hopefully with that, and MORE testing, that the virus spread in Phuket can be identified, specific isolation put in place, and the spread stopped.
I say 'hopefully' as I fear it could be too late to stop this average daily increase.
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1 hour ago, oldcpu said:
Some of us actually like Phuket, especially now with no tourist crowds, empty beaches, light road traffic, and some amazing prices.
But if drinking in the bars and restaurants is needed for ones ideal vacation , then Phuket (nor anywhere in Thailand) is not the place
Let me amplify the last sentence as I thought the 'present time' meaning obvious - but maybe it wasn't. So that last sentence should read:
" ... if drinking in the bars and restaurants is needed for ones ideal vacation , then Phuket (nor anywhere in Thailand) is not the place at present time. " ..
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11 hours ago, dougiemac52 said:
How are they not stuck ? No transport away from Phuket, that sounds like trapped to me
Some of us actually like Phuket, especially now with no tourist crowds, empty beaches, light road traffic, and some amazing prices.
But if drinking in the bars and restaurants is needed for ones ideal vacation , then Phuket (nor anywhere in Thailand) is not the place
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1 hour ago, TechnikaIII said:Every tourist and/or retiree contributes to the Thai economy. But being forced to spend in Phuket before going elsewhere is nothing short of extortion.
I rent a premises in Nakhon Sawan province and the community where that is, needs the money every bit as much as the Phuket hotels that paid to be in the so-called "Sandbox".
You make a good point IMHO as to many places in Thailand suffering (wrt the part of your post I quoted).
I think thou, what we are seeing is the bureaucracy does not move very fast - and Thailand is not unique here.
The Phuket "Sandbox" planning has been debated starting last year, with the debates/discussions happening when there basically next to NO known COVID cases in Thailand. The 'Sandbox' idea was bandied back and forth, while most of Thailand was not very suffering much (relative to Phuket (and some other areas that depend almost entirely no tourists)) where Phuket and other resorts were devastated.
In the end, despite the fear that Thailand would be re-infected by foreigners coming into Phuket, it was decided to use Phuket as a 'test case' (ie a Sandbox) where the Island could be sealed if the foreigners brought the pandemic back to Thailand. Phuket could be sealed, and the pandemic could then rage uncontrolled (?) in Phuket, while the remainder of Thailand was safe. The planned vaccination strategies were laid out and made with that assumption that any virus introduction would be sealed in Phuket ....
... and I note again that it is very slow for a bureaucracy to make such plans, and once such plans made, it is slow for a bureaucracy to change.
of course ... we all know ... it didn't happen that way. Instead, while waiting for the Phuket Sandbox to open on 1-July-2021, back in December-2020 some traffickers brought in COVID infected migrant workers to Thailand with no quarantine, and the pandemic started again in Samut Sakhon. It then spread to other areas, some middle-class/wealthy caught the virus, and they then spread it in some super spreader parties ... and the rest is history.
The government kept the Phuket Sandbox plan in place, but of course the circumstances surrounding it all changed. Instead of Phuket risking bringing the pandemic to Thailand, ... it was mainland Thailand that is bringing the pandemic to Phuket.
As for whats next ?? - your guess is as good as mine. I suspect we both hope the government (and private hospitals if allowed) succeed better in bringing vaccines into all of Thailand, such that the original plan to open Thailand on 1-October (or hopefully not much later) can proceed.
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2 hours ago, pagallim said:
There hasn't been a previous definition of domestic tourist and/or visitor. There hasn't been any change from the current criteria, i.e. if you have the vaccination history and a negative test, you could and can enter Phuket.
I do not believe that is accurate. It was true for a short time, but then on 2-August (?) the restrictions were increased, and non-essential fully vaccinated domestic travelers to Phuket were not allowed to enter. For a few days after, each day, hundreds were turned away at Sarasin bridge (according to the local press).
THere is an older Thaiger link to the article noting Phuket was closed to domestic travelers. It didn't matter if fully vaccinated or not.
https://thethaiger.com/news/phuket/domestic-travel-to-phuket-all-but-banned-starting-august-2
Edit: Just a further amplification, those who are considered 'essential' and on the exception list, also have to be fully vaccinated AND have had a recent COVID test. Its easy to misread the article.
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21 minutes ago, Espanol said:
"Phuket has extended its restrictions until the end of August, including the sealing off of the island to outsiders, with some exceptions, due to continuing high numbers of new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases.
The exceptions are Phuket residents, visitors related to the “sandbox” scheme, and people who have been vaccinated with 2 shots of Sinovac or at least one shot of AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson at least 14 days prior to arrival, or those who have recovered from COVID-19 for at least 90 days. The visitors have to produce negative RT-PCR or Antigen test results not older than 72 hours."
If this is correct, anyone can enter now Phuket from mainland if fully vaccinated and negative PCR.
My Thai wife claims that is a poor translation ( or ambiguous English writing) in the Thai PBS article and that Phuket remains closed to domestic tourists according to the original official Thai language.
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1 hour ago, anchadian said:
The exceptions are Phuket residents, visitors related to the “sandbox” scheme, and people who have been vaccinated.
https://twitter.com/ThaiPBSWorld/status/1426765249068240898
Thanks ... I don't plan to leave the Island, but I am curious as to what proof they will ask for to prove residency for any foreigner ('resident' of Phuket) who does return to Phuket.
I wonder if for Thai people it may (in part) be the "Blue Book" ... and I also wonder if foreign (non-immigrant or work-visa) who have a Yellow Book (indicating the place where they are resident) could use that as proof of them being considered a Phuket resident?
If after this update becomes effective, I would be most curious to read of the experience of any foreigner/resident of Phuket in returning to Phuket (after having left).
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Like others, I am waiting for the results of yesterday's meeting of Phuket officials, to appear in English language news (for Phuket).
My Thai wife claims the domestic closure was extended, with a caveat that registered Phuket residents (ie those with a Blue Book (Thai) or a Yellow Book (foreigner)) are now allowed to leave and re-enter Phuket (if they are fully vaccinated and if they have a COVID test NEGATIVE within 72-hours of returning to Phuket) ... while non-Phuket residents if not meeting the essential/emergency exception are not allowed to do so.
My wife doesn't always get her facts correct, although she does the majority of time - so I too am most interested to read in a reliable news source if what my wife claims is true.
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I note:
QuoteRussian authorities are prepared to donate 100,000 doses of Sputnik vaccine as booster doses for Phuket people, he said.
That's very kind of the Russians.
Still - it would be nice to have seen one or two peer reviewed studies that show Sputnik vaccine as a booster for 2xSinovac, or for 2xAstraZeneca, or for Sinovac/AstraZeneca ... ie. would a Sputnik booster actually be beneficial over other alternatives?
... Not wanting to ignore a gift, but some evidence that it is a useful gift would help give more confidence.
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On 7/30/2021 at 11:07 AM, DaveC said:
I don't know that the population figures you quote include itinerants living on the island.
I do know that the Phuket News has highlighted the figures I mention and I would be very surprised if 446,000 out of 466,000 eligible had already registered.
I prefer to correct myself when I am wrong ... and it appears to me that your estimate of Phuket's population was closer than mine.
For some time, even before this exchange of Phuket population estimates, I've been curious about the population of Phuket.
I stumbled across this 17-June-2021 ThePhuket News article, which suggests your estimates of the Phuket population is closer to mine - and so I stand corrected, and further, if I offended at any time in my previous post, I apologize, ... as that was not my intention to offend.
The numbers in Phuket news don't exactly add up, which I guess is no surprise. I don't think any one really knows the population of Phuket, given last years exodus of people leaving Phuket. ... Still, I note according to that June-2021 Phuket news article, current estimates (where I assume this is people age-18 and older):
* about 310,000 people registered in Phuket
* about 100,000 people registered in other provinces who work in Phuket
* about 74,000 migrant workers or expats
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which adds up to 484,000 people by my calculation. This exceeds the 466,000 island population estimate the article also mentions. However this is NOT all the people in Phuket.The article also notes about 107,000 children under age-18. So 107,000 + 484,000 = 591,000, ... or about 600,000 people in Phuket, including children.
The article gives more numbers, confusing this further, but I now prefer to assume a population of 600,000 people in Phuket.
If one then looks at the 13-August report for Phuket vaccination status, where the target figure was 466,587 planned to be vaccinated where only 460,302 had registered for a vaccination, of which 424,637 had received one jab and 327,224 received 2 jabs.
My calculation has 466,587 of 600,000 is a target figure of only about 77% of the Island's population planned to be vaccinated.
So as of 13-August-2021:
* 1 jab of 424,637 is about 70% of total population have received 1 jab.
* 2 jabs of 327,224 is about 54% of total population have received 2 jabs.where this very unofficial and very rough estimate includes children and includes migrant workers/foreigners when trying to calculate the percentages.
I note that as many as 107,000 children in Phuket was a surprise to me.
I think my revised estimates are now much closer to what you were saying, than closer to what I had previously estimated (where my estimates were based on a smaller estimate of people in Phuket).
I didn't need to post this, but I prefer to correct my mistakes when I find them.
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On 8/10/2021 at 12:14 PM, Ryan754326 said:
The point is, that if you’re vaccinated, you are protected as well as possible for the time being, but the variants will continue to pop up, and most experts agree that covid isn’t going away, and that we’ll have to learn to live with it. The way it looks to me, is that the people who can’t deal with their own fears want to control other peoples behavior in order to soothe their own anxieties. If we let the most fearful in society dictate the policies, then I think we’ll be wearing masks and avoiding social contact forever, regardless of what percentage of the Earth’s population we manage to vaccinate.
I see your point, but I am not convinced you understand fully the point of the vaccinated.
Anyone who gets sufficiently sick from this virus, such that they need to be hospitalized, means one less bed in a hospital for people who don't have the virus - and this could cause non-COVID related deaths because those people could not get the hospital attention they needed.
Further anyone who gets sufficiently sick from this virus, such that they can't go to work, means those remaining in the office may need to work more (to make up for having less employees) and ultimately this could cause the company to lose money ... indeed cause many companies to lose money ... potentially damaging the economy ...
Further, the vaccinated while not immune to the virus, feel they are slightly less likely to catch the virus ('slightly' supported I believe by statistics) and know they could still catch the virus (albeit less likely than the unvaccinated) and still could get very sick (albeit less likely than the unvaccinated) and at this point we start getting into the fearful points you note. The vaccinated believe their odds are better if the unvaccinated were to change their mind to get vaccinated.
To be clear - my own view is if someone does not want to be vaccinated, then let them remain unvaccinated. BUT I also tend to side with policies where (if the business owners want, or if the majority present want) then unvaccinated may not be allowed in some locations/transports, because they are not unvaccinated, and a vaccinated majority does not want them there. Note the word "may" - as obviously (to me) there MUST be exceptions. I do think thou, if the majority end up vaccinated, and if we let a minority of unvaccinated dictate the polices, then we are going down the wrong road for a democracy.
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Edit: Note I include with the 'vaccinated' those who were originally un-vaccinated and who caught the virus and successfull recovered. I treat their recovery just as good if not better than a vaccination. I do thou see it as a very risky way to attain similar status.
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2 minutes ago, cyril sneer said:
I didn’t read your reply, you just sound bored and like to bicker at peoples posts for your own enjoyment
No. It was you who inaccurately replied, quoting a post of mine ... and I will quote your post :
Quotedoesn't matter which vaccine you get now, it won't be recognised by the west for years for travel purposes
Thailand could be bottom of the list of countries where the vaccines given are recognised as genuine
So I was replying to someone who specifically and inexactly, replied to a post of mine.
And your ultimate response? You cast insults when your logic fails.
Thailand seeks 12 million Sinovac shots for mix-and-match vax strategy
in Thailand News
Posted
I just posted on this. Yes - there is at least one ongoing study.