oldcpu

34 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

According to the BP 11 JULY 677,348 THAI medical workers received two shots of Sinovac and 618 were positive COVID -19. One nurse succumbed and one medic remains in critical condition.

Yes and those statistics with even more detail is in the two posts I posted above - one in Thai languge (link and jpeg image) and the other post my feeble attempt to help translate.  

One medical worker in the 618 (677,348 double dose of Sinovac infected) died.   And one worker in the 68 (22,062 only one dose of Sinovac) died.

The info I provided also indicates for how many it was only mild symptoms (597 out of 618 only mild symptoms for 2 doses ... and 67 out of 68 only mild symptoms).

Did you see the two posts I made where the statistics were provided?

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

There is no real life study with delta and Sinovac regards effectiveness.

I also have not read a real world study on Sinovac vs the Delta variant.  However the link I provided does provide the statistics of medical workers infected from 1-April to 10-July, where given the dates,  one can be pretty certain that a large % is the delta variant ....   What is needed now is for someone to take this and do a study. 

Again - Thai link is here:  https://www.khaosod.co.th/covid-19/news_6506545

I have copied below the image from that web site.  Further, here is my understanding (sort of translation  plus some of my interpretations) from that image ... however I do NOT speak nor read Thai, so I would be happy to be corrected by any who read Thai: ..

= = = = = = = = = = =

Statistics are for 1 April to 10 July 2021 (Thailand).

1 sinovac (only) jab - #received vaccine and tested = 22,062.
(Not included 2 jabs in this #).
Note there is only a small # with one jab as the second jab is given very soon ( about 3 weeks) after 1st jab.
- infected = 68 (0.3082%)
- mild = 67 (0.3036%)
- serious = 0
- death = 1 (0.0045%)

2 sinovac jabs
- #received vaccine and tested = 677,348
- infected = 618 (0.0912%)
- mild = 597 (0.0881%)
- serious = 20 (0.0029%)
- death = 1 (0.0001%%)

1 AstraZeneca jab
- #received vaccine and tested = 66,913
- infected = 45 (0.0672%)
- mild = 43 (0.0642%)
- serious = 2 (0.0020%)
- death = 0

= = = = = = = = = = = =

Armed with the above from the website/image (which is for high risk medical workers in Thailand who are exposed more to the pandemic) one can then compare that to overall Thailand totals (which is a mix of a small % vaccinated and a larger % not vaccinated) and I think one can see that the overall Thailand % of infected (mild + serious + death) is far FAR worse than those Medical workers vaccinated (on a per capita basis). 

So the Sinovac / AstraZeneca vaccination is just a placebo ?   I seriously doubt it.  or a pretty amazing / fantastically good placebo. ... BUT I agree - it would be good to see a formal peer review study on this , as by now there must be a lot of data on this pandemic, on the vaccinations, and on the infections.

On 7/12/2021 at 11:10 AM, MrJ2U said:

That graph is off if reports of deaths despite two doses of Sinovac are to be believed.

 

There are a (reduced) number of deaths from this virus with ALL of the vaccines - even Pfizer and Moderna.  However Pfizer and Moderna do have less deaths associated with their vaccinations than Sinovac or AstraZeneca.   So none of the 100% effective figures against death should be believed for any of the vaccines (unless there was rounding off from something like say 99.5% to 100%).   Still, all of them give better efficacy than going for no vaccine.

The article is in Thai, but its easily understandable if one uses Google chrome to translate:  https://www.khaosod.co.th/covid-19/news_6506545

The conclusions are clear .... both Sinovac and AstraZenica, while not perfect, helped to reduce the infections, hospitalizations, and deaths of Thai medical workers. 

That is not to say that other vaccines would not have been better - but it does show the vaccines available did help.

1 hour ago, steven100 said:

Why would you even think the Chinese Sinovac would offer protection   ?  

No one is claiming 100% protection. Even Pfizer and Moderna do not provide 100% protection, although IMHO their efficacy is far superior to AstraZeneca and superior to any of the Chinese vaccines.

But to answer your question:  There was some protection. Why ?  Look at the numbers.   0.48% infected in the Thailand general population with little-to-no vaccination.  And only 0.09% infected if vaccinated (where most were vaccinated with Sinovac).  The numbers tell the story.

If 0.48% of Thailand medical workers had been infected (like the general Thailand population) there would have been something like 3,250 medical workers infected, and not only 618.  Lets be happy it was not 3,250 medical workers infected.

Would Pfizer or Moderna, if available and given to the medical workers resulted in less infected - yes I believe so.  Were they available ? No. 

Go back a bit in time when the Sinovac was given to most of the medical personnel.  It was the only vaccine that Thailand could get at the time, as other (much more wealthy countries than Thailand) had made certain they all had first dibs on Pfizer, ... on J&J ... on Moderna.

As sad as it may be - in general its true, that one needs to take the vaccine that one can get - where there is no other choice.

3 hours ago, Oxx said:

However, "Hundreds of medical workers infected despite Sinovac vaccinations" from The Newspaper That Dare Not Speak Its Name is pretty good evidence.

I think one needs to look at this deeper than just the verbal spin the article is presenting.   I think everyone is in favour of the medical workers getting top priority for protection against this virus - but IMHO the article spin is highly misleading where it suggests the vaccines given to the medical workers (which I believe was predominantly SinoVac) didn't help.  Note I say 'suggests'.

Looking at the numbers in the article:    618 out of 677,348 ... which is about 0.09% of the medical personnel (which is a VERY SMALL percentage).

Ok, Lets look at the Thailand population of about 70-million where there have been about 336,600 people infected (ie about 0.48% of the population of Thailand infected) where I think we all know the # of people vaccinated in Thailand averaged since pandemic start is relatively small.

So 0.48% infected with little-to-no vaccination.  And only 0.09% infected if vaccinated.

I know what that tells me.  It tells me the vaccinations, while not perfect, helped.

But of course the article is pushing a story - pushing a spin,  ... pushing something (lets protect the medical workers) that we all want, but it is misleading in how it goes about this - where it suggests the vaccine is not working. 

The vaccine is working - just not as good as we would all like to see.  I think we all would like to see 100% efficacy.

33 minutes ago, Agusts said:

Yes, can't translate images. Please ask your wife to point out number of people tested, or tested negative on that diagram...

 

My wife is, how do I say this tactfully, is impatient with my constant translation requests. Perhaps someone else who reads Thai can provide a full translation.

What I recall is the page gives a cumulative # since 1  April. So one needs to go to previous day's page and subtract to get daily totals ... albeit I could be wrong.

On that page:

785 tested positive
94947 tested negative
95732 total tested since 1 April

The individual rows leading to the totals are groups as to test targeting ... such as high risk groups ...

25 minutes ago, Agusts said:

I'm not able to read Thai, but using Google translate, I don't see the info on this screenshot, where do you see it

Most of the info on that page is contained in jpeg attachments and Google Translate doesn't work on such, unfortunately.

I also don't speak Thai nor read Thai.

My wife does speak/read Thai and sometime back pointed the appropriate slide to me.  

I think it may be this one ...

On 7/10/2021 at 3:42 PM, pagallim said:

 

I've also registered and pre-paid for Moderna here in Phuket, both doses, which I also intend to have whenever they are available.   

IMHO you were fortunate to successfully register and be allocated Moderna. The Phuket Bangkok Hospital website went down seconds after 09:00 hrs after opening for registrations. After reopening a couple of minutes or so after 10:30 am it's allocation was full prior to 10:45 am when it was announced allocations all booked. During the brief time it was open the site was slow and multiple refresh clicks need to make progress.

According to the press over 67,000 people attempted to register for Moderna in this short timeframe and the rumour mill suggests the Hospital had an allocation of less than 5,000 doses.

Hopefully there will be other opportunities soon and the "powers that be" don't wait months to attempt to order more than just 5-10 million Moderna jabs.

3 hours ago, Agusts said:

I never understood why they can not also say how many people they tested on the day, or just say how many negatives they found....!?

 

The information is available for Phuket - on a Thai language Facebook page:   https://www.facebook.com/83ssj/?__tn__=-UC*F

46 minutes ago, samtam said:

What's the recommended interval between 1 & 2? If I'm offered Sinovac only, and I get 2 shots, I'm thinking of flying to Hong Kong to get a booster of Pfizer. but I don't know how long between 2nd Sinovac and booster Pfizer.

As mentioned already to you, nobody really knows (yet).

Earlier this week, when trying to register for Moderna my wife (who has received 2 Sinovac jabs in May) noted the Phuket Bangkok Hospital web site recommended the Moderna jab be given 3 to 4 months after the last Sinovac jab (and Astra Zeneca 4 to 6 months)..  The web site was also inconsistent - where in one place it stated for Sinovac to get 2 Moderna jabs as suggested for a booster (jabs separated by 4 weeks) but elsewhere it stated maximum 1 Moderna jab for a booster after Sinovac. My wife called the hospital, and was advised the Thai medical community is still considering this, where initially they thought 2 jabs best (for the booster after Sinovac), but they have now switched to recommending only 1 Moderna jab for the booster after Sinovac.  After AstraZeneca they have been consistent recommending only 1 booster jab.

I don't think any formal published studies have been done/published yet that assess a Pfizer booster or a Moderna booster after Sinovac, ...  although the general 'consensus' in various news articles (based on NO published studies) is that the booster is a good idea.

Given also there are no published studies (wrt Sinovac 2-jabs followed by Pfzier booster) I think its anyone's guess as to the best time separation, where hopefully those in the medical profession have a reasonable assessment. And as noted - Bangkok Hospital web site stated 3-to-4 months afterward (but my guess is that is 'tentative' and could change).

Have you checked the quarantine requirements for Hong Kong ?  I had thought they were only 2 weeks for some cases, and could be as much as 3 weeks duration for other cases.

On 7/9/2021 at 6:41 AM, clivebaxter said:

German chancellor had AZ then pfiser, so I think we can take that as pretty safe

I think it was AZ then Moderna ... which I find encouraging.  There have been a few studies conducted looking at AZ/Pfizer, but I have not seen any yet of AZ/Moderna, so Merkel's confidence in this suggests to me she may have had some expert consultation prior to her doing so.

Studies I have noted that state the AZ/Pfizer combination (in that order) works well :

*  https://www.isciii.es/Noticias/Noticias/Paginas/Noticias/Presentación-resultados-preliminares-CombivacS.aspx (spanish study)

* https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673621011156 (UK study)

* https://www.uni-saarland.de/fileadmin/upload/aktuell/pdf/2021/PM_111a_Impfstoffvergleich_Sester.pdf (German Study (English translation (PDF file))

4 hours ago, Badrabbit said:

I thought about the Moderna but then thought "what are the chances of it actually becoming available plus paying up front, also the possibility of having to fight for a refund if " I asked them the question "will I get a refund if the Moderna Vaccine never arrives" no answer!!

It was very difficult to successfully register (and receive confirmation & make payment) for the Moderna offerings by Bangkok Hospital Phuket, as the demand greatly exceeded the supply. 

My wife and I tried (with separate laptop computers) on the Wednesday starting at about 08:55am (prior to the 09:00 alleged opening) and kept trying every few seconds or so.  Within a few minutes after 09:00 (after unsuccessfully trying) my computer indicated to me the Hospital website was down. This was confirmed later when Hospital noted on Facebook its website down and due to come back at 10:30am.  I think it came back at around 10:33 am or so, and registrations closed at about 10:45am (maybe sooner). 

My wife was successful (which was good as she has only had Sinovac), with her getting an SMS 6-hours later saying registration successful (after which she immediately paid)  but I was not (I received an SMS a day later saying I was not successful), where it is less important for myself to succeed as I have had AstraZeneca, and I was thinking of a 2nd jab or a booster for myself.

I suspect it could be November timeframe before she gets her Moderna jab.

My wife and my view, even before we started trying to register, was that (even true now with her having paid now) if there is no Moderna provided (despite having paid), it is a relatively inexpensive donation to the Hospital, where the private hospitals are seriously suffering financially at present, and they are not allowed to take much (any ? ) profit off of the vaccines.   We agreed (prior to our attempt to register) to consider this worst case a donation to the hospital, and best case one of us might even get the vaccine jab.

.

I feel sorry for the school employees, for the children/students, and for the parents of the children who have to find a way in daytime to look after the children.

IMHO this school infection discovery may not brood well for Phuket overall and we could see an upsurge in the local number of new virus cases, forcing the local government to make some difficult decisions.

4 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

We beat you here on Samui. No stock by 09.15.

Did the Samui web site crash the second it opened? 

In Phuket, the site opened at 09;00am and then immediately crashed seconds later.  It was then impossible to book (as site down).  They managed to reopen the website at at about 10:33am and by around 10:40am or so it was no longer possible to book (web page would not respond), and at about 10:45am they announced closed to new vaccinations.

The vaccine demand clearly is outstripping the supply.

2 hours ago, ukrules said:

I wonder did they make people pay at the same time as they registered?

 

Because if they didn't then that's going to come back and bite them when many of them get an offer of vaccination for free by the government before October.

Yes, I think everyone had to pay before receiving their 'certified paperwork' saying they were get a Moderna vaccination.

There was chat about this already on the forum - where it appears it may be possible in some hospitals for one (who registered/paid for Moderna, but is now getting Pfizer) to transfer their Moderna allocation from one person, to another person, if they both show up at the same time at the Hospital to have the transfer processed.

Given the high demand, and given the unexpected nature of this Pfizer dose now likely to be made available for free to medical personnel (where I suspect it might be possible that the medical personnel had priority to book and pay BEFORE the websites opened up to the public to register for Moderna) that we might see a chance/opportunity for Moderna cancellation & full refunds if done before some TBD date (that is just me speculating). The demand is so strong for vaccines, I think the Hospitals would have no problem selling any Moderna dose that had been cancelled.

My view is "stay tuned".  The pandemic situation has been dynamic since March last year, and its still dynamic.

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Thanks for all the Phuket info. It's probably too much to expect, but do you know of any figures about what's the percentage of critical care beds in Phuket that are currently occupied?

I suspect that information is available somewhere, but I don't know where to look.

I have Thai relatives (wife's side of the family) who are doctors - and hence I get a bit of a '3rd hand' sense as to how Phuket hospitals are doing (ie not swamped like some other locations in Thailand).  Still, if one is sufficiently curious, one could plot the daily Phuket figures on hospitalization (obtaining the data from the web page/link I provided), and start to get a sense as to whether numbers increasing or decreasing.

8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well, those numbers seem pretty impressive. I don't care much about number of infections, but mortality figures are a lot harder to fudge. So it could be that vaccinations with Coronavac do provide a significant degree of protection. I do recognize that some of the vaccinations were done with AZ, but since the program started in April, I'm guessing that those who are vaccinated mostly got the Sinovac.

I agree the mortality figures are a helpful indicator (as sad as it is to type that).  I've read elsewhere the Phuket hospitals are not being swamped by new cases, unlike elsewhere in Thailand, and that is also useful information.

This is my 'unofficial' plot of the Phuket police web site reported new cases ... where (1) its an unofficial plot, and (2) likely there are more cases not reported, as likely some locals are afraid to be tested, as the economic implications of a minimum of 2 weeks or more in isolation, could be very serious to them. 

Given yesterday was 7 new cases, I'm concerned we could be seeing the start of an upward trend - but its very very difficult to say ....

11 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The locals may be reporting different numbers from the official ones posted by the MoPH, and the last version of those I've seen by province was July 3. I doubt the percentages have changed much in the past few days.

 

 

Interesting table. 

Possibly a mute point, but given the massive exodus from Phuket in June-2020 (I read estimates that about 15% of the population left last year as soon as the April/May-2020 lockdown was lifted), I doubt 547,584 is Phuket's population. 

I don't think anyone knows Phuket's population at present but the figure being used of 466,587 in the official police web site may be more accurate than the 547,584 figure.  

Of course, whichever population figure one uses, will greatly affect the % vaccinated calculations.

4 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I don't see any information about mortality there. But I read Thai not so well and the color scheme of the graphics doesn't help.

From that site:

Situation of COVID-19 infection in Phuket Province  on July 8, 2021

???? New cases from Phuket = 7
✈️???? New cases from foreign countries = 0
???? New cases from Phuket Sandbox = 0
???? Patients who have recovered and returned home = 714
???? Patients still hospitalized = 54
???? The total number of infected people sent for treatment in other provinces = 2
???? Cumulative confirmed cases = 766
???? Accumulated infected people from other provinces = 6
???? The number of infected people received from abroad = 3
???? New infected deaths today = 0
???? Accumulated deaths = 7 cases
????Information of infected people between April 3 - July 8, 2021.
????Source of information: Phuket Provincial Public Health Office.

Just now, placeholder said:

Keep in mind that according to the Thai Authorities fully 70% of the residents of Phuket have been fully vaccinated either with Coronavac or the AZ vaccine. I would be interest to find out what the mortality currently are in Phuket.

You can obtain Phuket daily information here: https://www.facebook.com/83ssj/?__tn__=-UC*F

6 minutes ago, Sametboy2019 said:

Any links to cases by province?

Phuket's normally shows up here:   https://www.facebook.com/83ssj/?__tn__=-UC*F

All of Thailand will eventually show up here:   https://mobile.twitter.com/nbtworldnews?lang=en

.

4 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

The case counts are a red herring. They have been undercounted for weeks now, and every additional day compounds that error. There's almost no point in focusing on them at this point. Because of lack of testing and the fact that the disease has a base case of asymptomatic, actual cases are probably several times higher than stated (which is both a positive and a negative).

 

I think every one agrees that more testing is needed for accuracy in the case counts. 

However in the lack of more testing - should one simply turn a blind eye to the new case counts, even if the case counts are not as accurate as we think is needed ?  

I definitely think the case counts is NOT a red herring (despite more tests being needed). 

The case counts just are far from being as good as they ideally should be - and not being as good as they should be means decisions (by those 'running the country')  that maybe should have been made some time back (if more testing had been done), will only be made later than what may happen (later because they had less than adequate information).   

But with no case counts, I bet no action would be taken even now - and we would be even worse off than we are now (and yes I think it possible to be worse off).

3 minutes ago, beano2274 said:

some German authority said that cases per million is not relevant, people should start looking at the amount of cases that are hosptialised per day, remember someone who has been vaccinated might have a positive test, but will not become seriously ill.

I won't disagree with that assessment, but I will say I think if we had that data, we would also be posting that.   

We do the best we can with the data we have.    I think in this case, the data we do have, is better than no data - as wrong information has been posted (such as someone on this thread posting Thailand #2 in # of cases world wide).