Jump to content

tgw

Advanced Member
  • Posts

    3,815
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by tgw

  1. well, for every article, the name of the seller is shown. if I buy any article for which I am interested in its reliability or warranty, I will select a known seller (for example JIB sells on Lazada) or at least check the seller's reputation and reviews of same or similar articles he sold.
  2. I'm always tempted to go to the 4-ways flashers when they are stopped at a red light and ask them what's wrong, what the immediate danger is, what they need assistance with? But I'm not particularly keen on getting shot in the forehead, so I always pass on that urge.
  3. @sirineou you do know that you can select which shops you buy from on Lazada, right ?
  4. if a traffic cop follows you around for long enough, he will find a way to give you a ticket, even if you are a very good driver. private communication needs to be protected from search without probable cause by law enforcement.
  5. I encourage everyone to report this kind of double pricing as much as they can everywhere. The only way the courses learn are when they lose foreign customers. Be sure to mention it in a friendly manner on their facebook posts too, otherwise they won't notice.
  6. Is it totally unthinkable of to maybe go to immigration police at the airport and ask to be stamped in and out ?
  7. marriage is an obsolete concept. historically, it was an important element of hereditary power and the transmission of wealth, so it's not surprising that it has been strongly codified in religions as well and the solemnity/sanctity and pomp amplified. in ancient Greece, marriage probably was something only the aristocracy did. many laws and restrictions of later mediterranean religions were also derived from public order and public health considerations, as to avoid fights between men and avoid the spread of veneral diseases. the ban on pork meat and for others, alcohol, has similar origins. religious communities grew their power by banning stuff that had been identified as harmful for the growth of their flock. still, some people today continue to follow these laws even as they are completely obsolete. people who want same sex marriages today don't want it for transmission of hereditary power, they want it because of the symbol and the aura of solemnity that has been built up over centuries by kingdoms and religions, which are now their ideological enemies. beyond the "solemn decision to unite their lives", many marriages (I'm talking about mainly hetero marriages) are also established to abuse visa laws, abuse immigration laws (especially in Europe), and circumvent taxation. for same sex marriages, there probably also is an element of wish to conquer normality through the appropriation of "normal people's" traditions ...and religions. conquering religions with LGBT issues is tricky though. but we also have good catholics who eat meat on fridays, people who think they are good muslims but drink alcohol or eat pork, and good jews who eat also eat pork when the rabbi doesn't look. it's yummy. now try to explain to people who say that their book only contains verbatim the word of god, or to people who say their immutable traditions are everything, that precisely the exact word of god maybe wasn't and that the immutable traditions need to be changed. not that I care. as I have been through a "marriage", my best advice would be to do away with that obsolete remainder of a tradition anyway, along with the nonsensical elements in religions (i.e. 80-90% of it, some clearly have more BS content than others). so at the end who cares - people want it, give it to them.
  8. I'm bottom-up too. But I pick bottom-up scenarios which also have the macro stars aligned. works.
  9. questions I like playing with: - how can I trade Taiwan/China tensions? - how can I trade Turkey economic collapse? - how can I trade eastern Ukraine tensions? - how can I trade hydrogen cars? are there new things happening that can be traded? is a new covid vaccine coming from a new market player? etc. etc. etc. many things are happening every day, but there are only few I can see a play for.
  10. I guess my most important criterium after quality of the company is how much the company will react to the scenario I have determined. For example, taking the recent microchips shortage, besides the Taiwanese worldwide #1 producers, one obvious answer could have been Bosch and its huge new chip production plant in Germany. Germany is great for industry, has good productivity gains and the Euro keeps German companies at an advantage within Europe and the cheap Euro helps with exports. The problem is, Bosch is too huge and therefore its stock won't react much to a success in microchips. Another answer could have been Infineon, but that company has never been performing that well and just doesn't seem tooled to produce what's needed. Then I had a look at ASML, the Dutch company making machines that in turn produce microchips, and the Netherlands are on par with Germany for industry, productivity and exports, both to the EU and outside. And the company is also specialized enough to greatly benefit from shortages. So ASML is in my eyes still a good bet today, but I'll wait until the current market/currency slump will have subsided. I invest in specific industries/sectors preferably into companies that make most of their income in a specific sector which I expect to boom (or slump - for shorts). But all the above is only about choosing a company to invest in - the premise is that *buying a stock* at all is the best way to translate the anticipated scenario into a trade. Because the best trade might not be a stock at all. Or sometimes the trade will be going short instead of buying. Or buy bonds. Or short them. Or FX. Or a commodity. Microchip shortage? What if there was a microchips future? options? no such thing of course. Some years back, I ran a position of 2 million Swiss short against the countervalue long in AUD, I paid 0.5% interest on the CHF, while the AUD was paying out around 4.5%. Because I was fairly sure the SNB wanted to keep the CHF low, and Australia was exporting minerals like crazy, blowing up their trade balance and pushing the AUD up. Kept that up for over a year, I raked in interest plus good gains on AUDCHF until the mining boom ended, then I knew it was over. That's how I trade. Or rather, how I traded. I got distracted, I work on other stuff, I go play golf, play with the ladies... I forget to check my portfolio for weeks. But this has to stop. I want to get in again. The only thing I am missing from working at a bank are some rare few colleagues with which I could discuss my ideas. Sometimes I am blindsided and it was very good to get some totally fresh perspective on some questions. On colleague in particular - he has a phd in nuclear physics and worked in government cryptography - has a mind that often works in a totally opposite way to mine. I would introduce an idea and then he would blow my mind with some aspects I totally missed. When we were both agreeing on something, we knew we had a winner.
  11. Thanks for the links. Read briefly three posts of the first one - that's not my cup of tea - the companies are too small, the actionable info is too shaky. The second promotes crypto, so no. I'm not into "undervalued shares", because most of the time, there is a good reason why they appear undervalued in the first place. All these companies have insiders with way better information, and they would have gotten the word out to their cronies if there was any information asymmetry. Going for the cheap ones is not the best strategy, unless the research is rock solid, including a good reason why it's still cheap. When I'm looking into stocks, I choose stocks of companies that are well-run, that are already successful but still growing, and which are posed to become even more successful because of structural and conjunctural factors, in addition to already being one of the best in what they do.
  12. nope, I don't sell anything, nor do I promote anything.
  13. nice! I wouldn't be able to keep up to date with that many companies though. never had more than 15 lines in my portfolio, FX and portfolio corpses excepted.
  14. what I've heard so far is that omicron causes mild symptoms - if this is true, couldn't that be a chance to instead spread it as much as possible, achieving herd immunity?
  15. the executive summary is spot-on though !
  16. lol no, I don't sell investments, I make them myself, thanks. just want to discuss information and trading ideas, everyone can trade what he wants where he wants.
  17. pay 0 for futures ... only initial margin and variation margins required.
  18. lol, thanks for the salt! I guess I was asking more about commentary that contains the kind of info I'm looking for. it's a question of filtering, right level of details, broadness of information, etc. and are not strutting useless technical analysis or simply stuttering useless figures. I linked two that I think are interesting.
  19. ah the good old SPX with 250k size or the FDAX with 100k DM ... these were the times ! but they were quick enough to introduce e-minis for the snowflakes ???? 1997 ... such a long time ago already ????
  20. time horizon is not necessarily less than 3 months... trends will be followed as long as they last. my last trend was AFX.DE , got into it in mid-2017, unloaded yesterday with approx. 400% profit. now I have no open positions left, I'm just slightly long USDEUR and short EURCHF few are people who have futures trading access. most people mean they trade forwards, futures certificates or CFD instead of futures.
  21. hahaha - these were the times ! it's about position trading - investment horizon is between a few days up to months. just looking for a handful of likeminded guys (or gals as improbable as it might be)
×
×
  • Create New...