Hotels and airlines in Thailand remain cautious about the prospect of a tourism rebound, despite expectations that the ceasefire MOU, between the United States and Iran could ease pressure on travel costs. Industry operators warn that weak consumer spending and the ongoing low season are likely to delay any meaningful recovery.
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According to Nuntaporn Komonsittivate, head of commercial at Thai Lion Air, average load factors for June and July have declined compared with the same period last year. Travellers have become more cautious with their spending after holiday trips during April and early May, reducing demand during the current off-peak season.
Although crude oil prices have fallen close to pre-conflict levels, Mrs Nuntaporn said fuel prices for airlines are unlikely to return immediately to where they stood before the Gulf conflict. Airlines are expected to wait until transport routes are fully restored before making operational changes such as increasing flight capacity or reinstating suspended services.
Thai Lion Air has reduced seat capacity by 15% since the conflict began. The airline is now assessing how lower fuel costs could affect ticket prices from next month.
The tourism slowdown is also affecting the hotel sector. La-iad Bungsrithong, a board adviser to the Thai Hotels Association, said the 2026 low season has been the weakest in years. Average hotel occupancy in Chiang Mai stands at only 40-45%, while some areas are recording rates as low as 35%.
She noted that the downturn is affecting all market segments, including five-star hotels, which have traditionally performed well during low-season periods. Mid-range three- and four-star hotels are facing weaker domestic demand as households and businesses prioritise spending on essential expenses rather than leisure travel or meetings.
Luxury hotels are also experiencing lower bookings due to a decline in international visitors, particularly from Europe and the United States. High jet fuel costs have discouraged travel from those long-haul markets.
Industry representatives expect travellers to adopt a wait-and-see approach even if the peace agreement works. Operators are closely monitoring booking trends for July and August, when school holidays, long-stay visitors, pensioners and digital nomads typically help support demand.
Mrs La-iad also said government cost-of-living relief measures, including co-payment schemes, have not provided a significant boost to domestic tourism spending. Instead, households are using the assistance to cover essential daily expenses.
Bangkokpost reported that as of 31 May, domestic trips in Thailand increased by 1.77% year-on-year to 86.7 million. Bangkok, Chon Buri and Kanchanaburi recorded the highest number of visits.
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Adapted by ASEAN Now Bangkokpost 20 June 2026