Dr Anusorn Thammajai, a noted economist and People’s Party MP, warned on June 21, 2026 that Thailand is facing increasing risk of a fiscal and confidence crisis similar to Indonesia if no concrete fiscal rebalancing plan is implemented within the next one to two years. He said Thailand’s current situation has not yet reached a crisis point, but vulnerabilities are rising.
Get today's headlines by email 
He compared Thailand with Indonesia, noting that while Indonesia still shows stronger indicators in some areas, including a lower public debt-to-GDP ratio and Q1 economic growth of 5.61%, it has experienced a severe confidence shock linked to policy direction and governance. Since President Prabowo Subianto took office, Indonesia has faced accumulated budget and current account deficits, alongside populist economic measures and expanded state intervention in key sectors.
He cited concerns over the dismissal of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, questions around central bank independence, and investor unease over fiscal discipline. He also pointed to the creation of PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia as a sole export intermediary for commodities such as coal and palm oil, which markets viewed as a distortion. This contributed to MSCI signalling a possible downgrade of Indonesia from Emerging Market to Frontier Market status, triggering capital outflows, an 8% rupiah depreciation, and a stock market fall of more than 32%.
Turning to Thailand, Dr Anusorn highlighted the 2027 budget, which projects public debt at 69.36% of GDP, just 0.64% below the legal ceiling of 70%. He warned that weaker-than-expected growth could push debt beyond the limit. He added that under the 2027 budget, Thailand will pay 310.950 billion baht in interest but only 151.520 billion baht in principal repayment, meaning interest costs are roughly double principal repayments and exceed the budgets of several ministries. He also stated that public debt interest costs equate to 852 million baht per day, 35 million baht per hour, and 592,000 baht per minute.
He said: “If we continue with populist policies, violate fiscal discipline, fail to reform government revenue, and incur more debt to the point where the debt ceiling has to be raised, we risk a fiscal crisis, leading to a crisis of confidence similar to Indonesia’s, with a plummeting currency and a crashing stock market in the future.”
He also criticised budget planning, saying at least 12 agencies received increased allocations without clear efficiency gains, and argued that current spending does not reflect changing global geopolitical and domestic conditions, including concerns over money laundering networks and fragmented welfare systems.
ThaiNewsroom reported that Dr Anusorn urged a review of the 2027 budget to strengthen fiscal discipline, improve efficiency, and develop a more integrated social welfare system. He warned that continued reliance on fragmented welfare schemes and non-targeted populist spending could undermine long-term stability.
Picture courtesy of TNR
Join the discussion? 
Already a member? 
Adapted by ASEAN Now Thainewsroom 23 June 2026