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[rooster59]

Irma seen becoming major hurricane early next week - NHC

 

Satellite image of Tropical Storm Irma pictured here in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean on August 30, 2017. NASA/NOAA /Goddard Rapid Response Team/Handout via REUTERS

 

REUTERS - The U.S. National Hurricane Center described Irma as a small hurricane on Saturday as it moved west across the Atlantic Ocean but said it should become "major" when it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles early next week.

 

"It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will have on the Bahamas and the continental United States," the forecaster said.

 

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT), the hurricane center said Irma was about 1,220 miles (1,965 km) east of the Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 110 miles (180 kilometers) per hour.

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-09-03

[Squeegee]

 

[RPCVguy]

Category 6? If Hurricane Irma Becomes The Strongest Hurricane In History, It Could Wipe Entire Cities Off The Map
Though the headline seems hyperbolic - winds of 180 mph are far bigger than Harvey or Katrina. For Harvey, the issue was persistent rain. Irma is gathering strength / wind-speed and size. She'll come ashore wherever she does. The Weather Channel has the “most likely” path of Irma passing directly over Antigua, Puerto Rico and Domincan Republic toward the middle of next week.

 

There are near perfect conditions for Irma to feed off the warmed oceans and keep growing.

By next week, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows Irma as a 878 mb monster hurricane looming about 300 miles off Florida. 878 mb would represent the lowest pressures ever recorded in a hurricane in the Atlantic - stronger than the present strongest Atlantic storm - Wilma at 882 mb.

[Gulfsailor]

7 minutes ago, RPCVguy said:

Category 6? If Hurricane Irma Becomes The Strongest Hurricane In History, It Could Wipe Entire Cities Off The Map
Though the headline seems hyperbolic - winds of 180 mph are far bigger than Harvey or Katrina. For Harvey, the issue was persistent rain. Irma is gathering strength / wind-speed and size. She'll come ashore wherever she does. The Weather Channel has the “most likely” path of Irma passing directly over Antigua, Puerto Rico and Domincan Republic toward the middle of next week.

 

There are near perfect conditions for Irma to feed off the warmed oceans and keep growing.

By next week, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows Irma as a 878 mb monster hurricane looming about 300 miles off Florida. 878 mb would represent the lowest pressures ever recorded in a hurricane in the Atlantic - stronger than the present strongest Atlantic storm - Wilma at 882 mb.

No such thing as a cat 6 hurricane. Furthermore the part 'she'll come ashore wherever she does' is not at all a certainty right now. There is still a good chance that it recurves NE and won't make any landfall on Caribbean islands or the US, before fizzling out over the cold North Atlantic. 

We'll know more by the middle of the week. Until then no point in spreading impending doom stories. 

[RPCVguy]

The steering winds are pushing Irma west.
... and the most recent forecasting at NOAA holds to the above for the next 72 hrs:
"The confidence in the track forecast is high for the next 72 hours since all of the reliable guidance is basically on top of each other. After 3 days, when the hurricane is forecast to be approaching the northern Leeward Islands, the guidance envelope spreads out and becomes bounded by the southernmost tracks of the HWRF, HCCA and the ECMWF models, and by the northernmost GFS and UK models. "
Try looking at the 2nd link and see as to the ocean conditions for heat energy available.
(Hint: click on the word EARTH at the bottom left to open the menu. It is set now to show Convective Available Potential Energy from Surface
indicates the buoyancy of air, a measure of atmospheric instability and predictor of severe weather.)

As for Cat 6 - yep, no such thing yet, but they're thinking of adding that label thanks to the upper wind speeds or storms like Patricia and now being forecast for Irma.

Edited September 3, 2017 by RPCVguy

[Andaman Al]

9 hours ago, RPCVguy said:

The steering winds are pushing Irma west.
... and the most recent forecasting at NOAA holds to the above for the next 72 hrs:
"The confidence in the track forecast is high for the next 72 hours since all of the reliable guidance is basically on top of each other. After 3 days, when the hurricane is forecast to be approaching the northern Leeward Islands, the guidance envelope spreads out and becomes bounded by the southernmost tracks of the HWRF, HCCA and the ECMWF models, and by the northernmost GFS and UK models. "
Try looking at the 2nd link and see as to the ocean conditions for heat energy available.
(Hint: click on the word EARTH at the bottom left to open the menu. It is set now to show Convective Available Potential Energy from Surface
indicates the buoyancy of air, a measure of atmospheric instability and predictor of severe weather.)

As for Cat 6 - yep, no such thing yet, but they're thinking of adding that label thanks to the upper wind speeds or storms like Patricia and now being forecast for Irma.

A great heads up thanks, and most interesting info. Yes, all of the 'feeding mechanisms' for Irma to grow into a monster are there. It has formed well to the east, it has over a thousand kms of warm ocean to the west of it (the way it is heading) and physics and thermodynamics says it MUST get stronger. If I were with my family in Puerto Rico or Antigua etc I would be on a flight out west tomorrow. It would be ironic that Trumps Presidential tests are not a war with ISIS or the fat Korean but a war with nature after he has denied the effects of global warming. The effects of warming on the ocean by even fractions of a degree are enough to increase the energy available to feed storms incredibly. about 5-7 days to go i guess. Atlantic cruises right now might be a bit rough.

 

Bye the way, I am loving that second link you gave in your first post. That is bookmarked now 

Edited September 3, 2017 by Andaman Al

[JLCrab]

IRMA Forecast

 

Edited September 3, 2017 by JLCrab

[Andaman Al]

Irma is now a Cat 4 already! 

 

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-irma-category-4-united-states-hurricane-warning-leeward-islands

 

 

 

 

 

[ilostmypassword]

It also seems to have changed course and is now heading toward florida. It could also enter the Gulf of Mexico and possibly even afflict Texas again.

[Andaman Al]

1 minute ago, ilostmypassword said:

It also seems to have changed course and is now heading toward florida. It could also enter the Gulf of Mexico and possibly even afflict Texas again.

If it hits the gulf it will enter as at least a Cat 4 and go off the scale of a cat 5 before it hits landfall! Lets hope it stays away.

[RPCVguy]

For updates on IRMA ... a precise graphic, updated several times each day, the National Hurricane Center at NOAA is tops:

►Current hurricane center graphic for IRMA (auto updated site.)

 

Ditto for the discussion - no BS, just the facts:

►Current hurricane center report - no hype (auto updated site.)

[RPCVguy]

Current sustained wind speeds of 150 mph. Expect some weakening as island mountains will dampen wind speed, BUT the warmest waters are those in the hashed dot area SE of Florida.

[ilostmypassword]

Irma is now a category 5. 

[RPCVguy]

Winds of 155 knots translate to 178 mph... not one to be in the way of if possible to avoid.

[pegman]

This storm is nuts. If you are in the USA south-east board up your windows, get in your ride and hit the gas. People in the Carribean  don't have that option. It's like those crazy cyclones in the west pacific. 

[ilostmypassword]

If it stays on the forecast track and reaches the Florida Straits, the water there is warm enough that the already “intense” storm could become much worse with wind speeds potentially reaching 225 mph, Kerry Emanuel, an MIT meteorology professor told the Associated Press. 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/irma-hurricane-storm-latest-winds-strongest-ever-recorded-atlantic-power-speeds-a7931486.html

[Andaman Al]

There could be a market here for a line of t-shirts saying "i was blown by Irma".

 

My flippant statement aside, this is developing into what could be the most serious storm to hit US landfall for a long long time. If it hits the warms water south west of Florida this could technically develop into what could be recategorised on the Saffir-Simpson scale of a category 6 or 7.

 

I wonder what the evangelicals will blame this soon to be natural disaster on this time? Gays, transgenders, Hilary supporters? or maybe God is throwing it at the US because of..........evangelicals.

[RPCVguy]

19 hours ago, Andaman Al said:

There could be a market here for a line of t-shirts saying "i was blown by Irma".

 

My flippant statement aside, this is developing into what could be the most serious storm to hit US landfall for a long long time. If it hits the warms water south west of Florida this could technically develop into what could be recategorised on the Saffir-Simpson scale of a category 6 or 7.

 

I wonder what the evangelicals will blame this soon to be natural disaster on this time? Gays, transgenders, Hilary supporters? or maybe God is throwing it at the US because of..........evangelicals.

A more appropriate target in the case of Harvey would be the oil companies (starting with Exxon) that had their own researchers telling them of consequences in the 70's but whose executives chose instead to fund (tobacco lobby style) the perception of doubts so as to delay response. Then look to the first state to ban at the executive level the use of terms like Climate Change... along with the prize, Mar-a-Lago. Maybe ex-CEO Tillerson and his boss could have a meeting there to discuss more ways continue profits and forestall conversion from fossil fuels. Heck, invite the Koch brothers to come parlay with them, enjoy some golf while they are there.

If only the storm wrath were focused more sharply. The evangelicals might thus go back to normal sermons instead of against people with little power or resources.

Unfortunately, these are natural disasters and the consequences are spread far to widely to seem fair. Downright socialistic as to the costs.