What narrative will emerge from ex-PM’s flight from justice?

[rooster59]

What narrative will emerge from ex-PM’s flight from justice?

By Attayuth Bootsripoom 
The sunday Nation

 

 

All imaginable questions of what, when, where and why poured forth on the matter of ex-PM Yingluck Shinawatra’s fleeing the country and missing the verdict in her malfeasance case.

 

Speculations can, and probably will, go on for some time yet, but the most important questions remain who benefited from Yingluck’s escape and when will she choose to finally emerge from hiding.

 

Yingluck’s actions leading up to the verdict date had been scrutinised by so many, including her own team, supporters, haters and intelligence officers. Yet she magically vanished shortly before August 25, when she was due to hear the court’s ruling on a case stemming from her government’s rice-pledging scheme.

 

She was last seen in Bangkok on August 23, when CCTV footage showed her lunching with 14 people of her team at the Shinawatra-run SC Park Hotel Bangkok after making merit at Wat Rakhang Khositaram.

 

Authorities on Friday made the first official confirmation that Yingluck was last seen in a sedan on CCTV at a military checkpoint in Sa Kaew, a border province to Cambodia, that same day. 

 

However, the vehicle’s movements were not captured by additional CCTV cameras, and so there is no proof that it had crossed the border into Cambodia.

 

It is widely believed that she fled overseas to her brother, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. But then again, where?

 

The Shinawatras remain oddly silent, only posting social media messages encouraging their missing relative. Thaksin himself hasn’t even asked for justice or explained why Yingluck did not go to hear the final verdict.

 

The ruling government, meanwhile, has stressed progress of the investigation in vague terms. We’ve almost figured out how and in what way she escaped, police officers said. All still remains ambiguous. The military simply said they haven’t got anything on their hands.

 

How could they let the highest-profile person of the month escape? Did any of the powers-that-be “facilitate” the runaway? Even asking these questions has irked top-brass officers.

 

The Shinawatras are tight-lipped. The junta is reluctant to speak on this topic, but eager to discuss other issues. Despite this, they both can reap benefits from Yingluck’s absence from Thailand.

 

For the business-political clan, their beloved Yingluck won’t have to risk being jailed. While imprisonment could have turned her into an icon of democracy, that would be a second choice behind freedom.

 

The Shinawatras will pay a heavy price in the political arena, some say. However, Yingluck’s move overseas means that she can do as she wishes without being constrained by either the junta or by the fallout from the rice-pledging scheme.

 

If she chooses to seek political asylum, it would send out a message to the world how she was unfairly treated by Thai politics. Her tale could lead to more slamming of the junta by international leaders and bodies. Her domestic supporters will accept whatever explanations she gives for her flight. The junta could also benefit from her escape.

 

“Why not accept justice if you were not doing anything wrong?” they will publicly ask of Yingluck for a long time.

 

Whatever overseas actions the Shinawatras might take could backfire domestically by increasing political conflict within the nation, and leading to some arguing that a military dictatorship is a “necessity” to keep the Kingdom together.

 

PM General Prayut Chan-o-cha trailed Thaksin in popularity in a recent poll from King Prajadhipok’s institute, but that’s the least of the junta’s concerns. 

 

During their three years of rule, they have succeeded in rendering politicians as “obstacles” to national development in the public mind. International pressure may occur, but the junta have not been bothered by that since coup d’etat day. Information control and selective narratives are frequently fed to domestic audiences, lessening any likelihood of an uprising.

 

The more Yingluck stays silent, the more she will be attacked. September 27, when a verdict is scheduled to be read without her presence, could be the most appropriate moment for her to strike back.

 

It’s not hard for Yingluck, or anyone for that matter, to anticipate the verdict. She might take this opportunity to feed supporters with her own selective narrative to explain what happened, justifying why she thought it necessary to abandon her long-lasting fight for justice.

 

That opportunity is fleeting, and if it passes without comment, who knows when Yingluck will be powerful enough to counter again.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30326260

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-09-10

[Samui Bodoh]

Thaksin did a runner and yet, the 'Red' side won the ensuing election. I can think of no reason to believe it will not be something similar again.

 

Many people hate the Shin family (not without cause) and consider them to be the main cause of problems in Thailand.

 

I disagree with this assessment, for the most part.

 

The problem, in my view, is that the Bangkok based political entities simply do not have the trust of the people in the N and NE. I do not believe that they view them as equal citizens that are worthy of respect. And I do not believe that they treat them (politically) with the respect their numbers and needs deserve.

 

Until the Bangkok based entities EARN the respect of people in the N and NE, the troubles will continue, either with the 'Reds' or with whatever entity rises up to take their place.

 

This is the problem.

 

[Thailand]

Her son is still here. Neither she or Thaksin are likely to say or do anything until they can get him out but as he has just started military training that is unlikely in the short term unless he gets posted to Dubai!

Possibly part of whatever deal was done but not likely to know what that was until the current incumbents are ousted.

[over it]

This 'narrative' will get assigned an inactive post, just like the rest of the numerous problems/issues this country has. 

 

If they keep up the same behavior in the era of social media, just saying you're Thai means a loss of face. 

 

 

[halloween]

39 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Thaksin did a runner and yet, the 'Red' side won the ensuing election. I can think of no reason to believe it will not be something similar again.

 

Many people hate the Shin family (not without cause) and consider them to be the main cause of problems in Thailand.

 

I disagree with this assessment, for the most part.

 

The problem, in my view, is that the Bangkok based political entities simply do not have the trust of the people in the N and NE. I do not believe that they view them as equal citizens that are worthy of respect. And I do not believe that they treat them (politically) with the respect their numbers and needs deserve.

 

Until the Bangkok based entities EARN the respect of people in the N and NE, the troubles will continue, either with the 'Reds' or with whatever entity rises up to take their place.

 

This is the problem.

 

Interesting that you think respect is a deserved right one way but has to be earned going the other.

Should those who "hate the Shin family (not without cause)" respect those who will vote for known criminals because they offer the best handouts? Should those who hate their blatant corruption respect those who choose to ignore it? When they protest the waste and corruption of the Shin government, should they respect those who use violence to intimidate them?

 

 

 

[yellowboat]

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

She might take this opportunity to feed supporters with her own selective narrative to explain what happened, justifying why she thought it necessary to abandon her long-lasting fight for justice.

She will wait until the appropriate time, when the junta is suffering from a large setback.  Doubt she feels a sense of urgency at the moment.

[halloween]

Just now, yellowboat said:

She will wait until the appropriate time, when the junta is suffering from a large setback.  Doubt she feels a sense of urgency at the moment.

Her sense of urgency cut in on the 23rd when she finally realised big brother couldn't keep her out of prison. All her own fault for not getting that amnesty through - you give a woman ONE job...........

[yellowboat]

12 minutes ago, halloween said:

Her sense of urgency cut in on the 23rd when she finally realised big brother couldn't keep her out of prison. All her own fault for not getting that amnesty through - you give a woman ONE job...........

Hahahaha, was referring to the urgency for her to re-emerge on the public stage.  Was it her brother or the junta that couldn't keep her out of prison ?   The ease of her escape makes one think both could be true. 

[YetAnother]

3 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Thaksin did a runner and yet, the 'Red' side won the ensuing election. I can think of no reason to believe it will not be something similar again.

 

Many people hate the Shin family (not without cause) and consider them to be the main cause of problems in Thailand.

 

I disagree with this assessment, for the most part.

 

The problem, in my view, is that the Bangkok based political entities simply do not have the trust of the people in the N and NE. I do not believe that they view them as equal citizens that are worthy of respect. And I do not believe that they treat them (politically) with the respect their numbers and needs deserve.

 

Until the Bangkok based entities EARN the respect of people in the N and NE, the troubles will continue, either with the 'Reds' or with whatever entity rises up to take their place.

 

This is the problem.

 

this is the root reason the reds were born

[AGareth2]

35 minutes ago, halloween said:

big brother couldn't keep her out of prison

sorry I didn't realise she was locked up

[JAG]

sorry I didn't realise she was locked up

Well as it happens there is a school of thought that holds it likely that is exactly what they have done, only not declared it and taken measures to ensure it remains, umh, unremarked...

We will have to see what narrative eventually emerges.

[halloween]

3 minutes ago, JAG said:

Well as it happens there is a school of thought that holds it likely that is exactly what they have done, only not declared it and taken measures to ensure it remains, umh, unremarked...

We will have to see what narrative eventually emerges.

Oh goody, a new conspiracy theory. How does this one fit in the the "helped to escape"?

[JAG]

Well as it happens there is a school of thought that holds it likely that is exactly what they have done, only not declared it and taken measures to ensure it remains, umh, unremarked...

We will have to see what narrative eventually emerges.

Oh goody, a new conspiracy theory. How does this one fit in the the "helped to escape"?

It doesn't, but it may feature in the eventual narrative.
We will have to wait and see.

[halloween]

3 minutes ago, JAG said:

 

It doesn't, but it may feature in the eventual narrative.
We will have to wait and see.

Until then, I will apply Occam's Razor. The simplest explanation being that the criminal ran away before the verdict.

[zyphodb]

4 hours ago, Thailand said:

Her son is still here. Neither she or Thaksin are likely to say or do anything until they can get him out but as he has just started military training that is unlikely in the short term unless he gets posted to Dubai!

Possibly part of whatever deal was done but not likely to know what that was until the current incumbents are ousted.

I think you have hit the nail on the head here, a deal was done that she was "helped" to escape on the condition that she, and her brother keep their mouths shut to give the Junta a clear run, & her son is a hostage to this....

 It would certainly fit the mindset of the people involved...

[connda]

Truthfully, it's a very common narrative:  
The rich and connected flee prosecution; everyone else fills the jails.  

[Na Lee]

Thaksin did a runner and yet, the 'Red' side won the ensuing election. I can think of no reason to believe it will not be something similar again.
 
Many people hate the Shin family (not without cause) and consider them to be the main cause of problems in Thailand.
 
I disagree with this assessment, for the most part.
 
The problem, in my view, is that the Bangkok based political entities simply do not have the trust of the people in the N and NE. I do not believe that they view them as equal citizens that are worthy of respect. And I do not believe that they treat them (politically) with the respect their numbers and needs deserve.
 
Until the Bangkok based entities EARN the respect of people in the N and NE, the troubles will continue, either with the 'Reds' or with whatever entity rises up to take their place.
 
This is the problem.
 

Very good analysis!

Sent from my BLL-L22 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Eric Loh]

33 minutes ago, halloween said:

Until then, I will apply Occam's Razor. The simplest explanation being that the criminal ran away before the verdict.

Occam'a Razor in this land of smoke and mirror and only one side welding power and authority. What you smoking today Halloween?

[farcanell]

I got your narrative for you....

 

.....

[TheLobster]

2 hours ago, halloween said:

Until then, I will apply Occam's Razor. The simplest explanation being that the criminal ran away before the verdict.

Nope it appears that the criminals are all still here.

[sandemara]

9 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Authorities on Friday made the first official confirmation that Yingluck was last seen in a sedan on CCTV at a military checkpoint in Sa Kaew, a border province to Cambodia, that same day. 

 

However, the vehicle’s movements were not captured by additional CCTV cameras, and so there is no proof that it had crossed the border into Cambodia.

I've seen nor heard any "official" confirmation beyond Prawit's speculation presented as what he called "solid evidence".  He the fact she "might have been" in the car was solid evidence.

No proof whatsoever.

If she had been in the car at the checkpoint and allowed to pass through, why aren't those in charge of the checkpoint already in the calaboose with a decent interrogation team climbing all over them?

What people want to believe and what is actually reality gets smeared into confusion all the time in the Thai media drama scripts.

[ovi1kanobi]

5 hours ago, yellowboat said:

She will wait until the appropriate time, when the junta is suffering from a large setback.  Doubt she feels a sense of urgency at the moment.

If she is still alive.

[ovi1kanobi]

1 hour ago, TheLobster said:

Nope it appears that the criminals are all still here.

I agree. She has not left the country. There is no proof whatsoever!

[ovi1kanobi]

5 hours ago, AGareth2 said:

sorry I didn't realise she was locked up

She might be worse off then locked up. LOL

[ovi1kanobi]

5 hours ago, zyphodb said:

I think you have hit the nail on the head here, a deal was done that she was "helped" to escape on the condition that she, and her brother keep their mouths shut to give the Junta a clear run, & her son is a hostage to this....

 It would certainly fit the mindset of the people involved...

Why else whould she leave her only son......And the mother of the year award goes to........

[yellowboat]

1 hour ago, ovi1kanobi said:

If she is still alive.

If she were dead, somebody would surely know and say something. 

[PETDCAT]

I would imagine if she wasn't guaranteed an easy exit , she would not have waited to the last moment to escape. 

[Eric Loh]

19 minutes ago, PETDCAT said:

I would imagine if she wasn't guaranteed an easy exit , she would not have waited to the last moment to escape. 

Bet it was a last minute decision by the junta. They miscalculated her popularity and thought that they could get rid of the Shin influence after 3 years. They did the reverse and enhance her popularity. Prayut not exactly the sharpest tool and his cabinet of half wits. Seeing that many will descend to the court and effort to save their skins, they open the door for her last minute escape. The junta just doing what best for them. 

[halloween]

3 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Bet it was a last minute decision by the junta. They miscalculated her popularity and thought that they could get rid of the Shin influence after 3 years. They did the reverse and enhance her popularity. Prayut not exactly the sharpest tool and his cabinet of half wits. Seeing that many will descend to the court and effort to save their skins, they open the door for her last minute escape. The junta just doing what best for them. 

Whichever conspiracy you adhere to will one integral concept, the junta will look bad, incompetent or stupid. It seems much easier for you to accept than the truth, another Shinawatra criminal did a runner rather than face the consequences of their crimes.

[Eric Loh]

16 minutes ago, halloween said:

Whichever conspiracy you adhere to will one integral concept, the junta will look bad, incompetent or stupid. It seems much easier for you to accept than the truth, another Shinawatra criminal did a runner rather than face the consequences of their crimes.

You can put lipstick on the junta, they will still looks bad, conniving and will manipulate for their own benefits. That they left the door ajar purposefully is a foregone conclusion. Under such political climate when the persecution is selective, it is better to live and fight another day.