Thailands Real Estate May Drop 20% In 2007

[george]

Foreign Investment Could Hit 7-year Low In Thailand This Year

BANGKOK: -- Foreign direct investment in Thailand is likely to hit a seven-year low this year as a result of the bombing of Bangkok, new capital controls and pending amendments to rules governing foreign-owned firms, a think tank said on Saturday.

The Kasikorn Research Centre (KSC), an affiliate of the Kasikorn Bank, said that in the worst case scenario with an increase in violence in the capital, foreign direct investment could plummet to below 3 billion dollars this year, the worst performance in seven years.

On New Year's Eve eight bombs were detonated in Bangkok, killing three people and injuring 42 others, including nine foreigners.

The government has yet to arrest the culprits behind the explosions, believed to politically motivated, and has warned that more attacks might be carried out during the next two months.

The KSC, in its best case scenario, said that if the government could bring the political instability under control quickly, a drop off in foreign investment could be limited to the first quarter of 2007, and total FDI might reach 5.86 billion for this year, down only 38 per cent from last year.

Other factors likely to discourage FDI inflows include the Bank of Thailand's decision on December 19 to place a 30 per cent reserve requirement on foreign exchange brought into the country for investments in the bond market and property - a move aimed at stemming speculation in the baht currency - and an amendment to the alien business law that will make it more difficult for foreign entities to set up joint ventures with nominee partners.

"The amendment to the alien business law will bring about clearer terms and conditions regarding foreign investment in Thailand, but it will also affect the business performance of some foreign firms," said the KSC, as reported by the Thai New Agency (TNA).

--DPA 2007-01-07

Realty may drop 20% in 2007 if blasts set by insurgents

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's property sector business this year may retreat as much as 10 to 20 per cent if last Sunday's bomb blasts here were caused by southern terrorists, according to a senior property business executive.

Thai Appraisal Foundation president Sopon Pornchokchai said the blasts on New Year's Eve may impact the property business sector in 2007 more severely than an earlier projection that it would either remain steady or decline not more than 5 per cent.

An estimated of 60,000 new units are projected to be constructed in 2007 with the total value of approximately Bt160 billion.

The extent of the negative projection depends on whether the southern insurgency is actually spreading to the Thai capital, and not on political conflicts which could be settled in the nearer future, Mr. Sopon said.

According to Mr. Sopon, the property business segments most likely to be hardest hit are office buildings and shopping centres, as foreign investors may delay their buying. Hotels and resort construction will also be hit as the number of tourists dwindles.

Prime Minister Gen. Surayud Chulanont and military leaders of the Council for National Security (CNS), which launched the coup last September 19 against the elected government, said earlier that the southern insurgents were not behind the incidents.

--TNA 2007-01-07

[bkkandrew]

Realty may drop 20% in 2007 if blasts set by insurgents

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's property sector business this year may retreat as much as 10 to 20 per cent if last Sunday's bomb blasts here were caused by southern terrorists, according to a senior property business executive.

Thai Appraisal Foundation president Sopon Pornchokchai said the blasts on New Year's Eve may impact the property business sector in 2007 more severely than an earlier projection that it would either remain steady or decline not more than 5 per cent.

An estimated of 60,000 new units are projected to be constructed in 2007 with the total value of approximately Bt160 billion.

The extent of the negative projection depends on whether the southern insurgency is actually spreading to the Thai capital, and not on political conflicts which could be settled in the nearer future, Mr. Sopon said.

According to Mr. Sopon, the property business segments most likely to be hardest hit are office buildings and shopping centres, as foreign investors may delay their buying. Hotels and resort construction will also be hit as the number of tourists dwindles.

Prime Minister Gen. Surayud Chulanont and military leaders of the Council for National Security (CNS), which launched the coup last September 19 against the elected government, said earlier that the southern insurgents were not behind the incidents.

--TNA 2007-01-07

What planet are these people on!?

Foreign investors delaying their buying? They are being prevented by new rules on company formation/nominees, witholding taxes and visa regulations (buy it but don't come here)..

[londonthai]

if confirmed that these blasts were not connected with southerners why this speculation?

and if they were caused by the inside fighting between the power groups wouldn't it mean a possible next military coup, which is far more danger than occasional insurgents bombings?

many agree that the property value in thailand is now inflated so the reduction would give some chance for the ordinary working class folks

[thaigene2]

Realty may drop 20% in 2007 if blasts set by insurgents

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's property sector business this year may retreat as much as 10 to 20 per cent if last Sunday's bomb blasts here were caused by southern terrorists, according to a senior property business executive.

Thai Appraisal Foundation president Sopon Pornchokchai said the blasts on New Year's Eve may impact the property business sector in 2007 more severely than an earlier projection that it would either remain steady or decline not more than 5 per cent.

An estimated of 60,000 new units are projected to be constructed in 2007 with the total value of approximately Bt160 billion.

The extent of the negative projection depends on whether the southern insurgency is actually spreading to the Thai capital, and not on political conflicts which could be settled in the nearer future, Mr. Sopon said.

According to Mr. Sopon, the property business segments most likely to be hardest hit are office buildings and shopping centres, as foreign investors may delay their buying. Hotels and resort construction will also be hit as the number of tourists dwindles.

Prime Minister Gen. Surayud Chulanont and military leaders of the Council for National Security (CNS), which launched the coup last September 19 against the elected government, said earlier that the southern insurgents were not behind the incidents.

--TNA 2007-01-07

What planet are these people on!?

Foreign investors delaying their buying? They are being prevented by new rules on company formation/nominees, witholding taxes and visa regulations (buy it but don't come here)..

I know - it's just so stupid isn't it. But I guess some people believe these goofy excuses...It's just flak

[thaigene2]

One stupid excuse after another..

At some point they will have to settle the visa and residency issue for people who want to use Thailand as their base to work in the region. Otherwise nobody but retirees and rich people who already have 3 or 4 homes around the world will buy anything here.

And the visa/residency rules mean they can't even stay here to rent a long-term place. So any Thai speculators who thought they were buying to 'rent/let to farangs' are also in for some real financial trouble soon.

Edited January 7, 2007 by thaigene2

[backflip]

"An estimated of 60,000 new units are projected to be constructed in 2007"

Baloney - this is 10 times the number of units that will be built. Where does the Thai media get this "information"?

[Cyber Inspector]

One stupid excuse after another..

At some point they will have to settle the visa and residency issue for people who want to use Thailand as their base to work in the region. Otherwise nobody but retirees and rich people who already have 3 or 4 homes around the world will buy anything here.

And the visa/residency rules mean they can't even stay here to rent a long-term place. So any Thai speculators who thought they were buying to 'rent/let to farangs' are also in for some real financial trouble soon.

The breaking news with a couple of Real Estate Ads on the top of the page? Money Money Money

[Foggy Bottom]

With 76 provinces, that is just under 800 new houses per province

With a non-foreign population of 64 million, around 2/3 of which are under 30 (Census Dept stats) and around 1/3 of total population between 18 & 30 - that's roughly 20,000,000 in the potential first time buyer window.

If even 10% of those are maried and house hunting, that's 1,000,000 couples looking for somewhere to buy (factored down for those with kids already, or not able to save deposit and borrow - so maybe 300,000 couples hunting = 5 couples looking to buy/build per unit in the projection.

For the real estate market, such quick and dirty stats are very encouraging.

And that's before factoring in ......

Immigration stats say 1.1 - 1.2 million foreigners resident in country.

Half are from neighbouring countries

Half the balance are from East and South Asia

= roughly 300,000 farangs resident officially (Non-Imm or Residents book)

How many of those want to buy is anyone's guess - could be as low as 1% or as high as 50% when factoring in

- how many have bought already,

- how many regard themselves as short to mid term expats (e.g. "work experience" teachers and multi-national's employees),

- how many simply don't have the dosh or income to buy (lots),

- how many are too scared to buy under currency frequency of law changes etc.

So that's somewhere between 3,000 and 150,000 farang buyers on the hunt for property on top of the Thai's also looking

With figures like that keeping the market buoyant, I'd say the residential property market is unlikely to suffer this year - and remember I haven't factored in the Bangkok wealthies looking to buy investment renters and second/third homes in the provinces.

60,000 new houses next year - - - I'd say that's a conservative extimate rather than an optimistic one.

Gaz

[rogerdee123]

Well ....

Real Estate agents always say prices are going up ....

People who recently bought condos always say prices won't go down ....

People looking for condos to buy always say prices are going down .....

The reality is ... anyone guess ... like the horse races

[grapetable]

The capital control of locking up 30% is the real disaster for property.............in time they will learn...........presumably? Remember 1997.

[samtam]

The capital control of locking up 30% is the real disaster for property.............in time they will learn...........presumably? Remember 1997.

Except property investment is exempt from the capital controls.

[markg]

At some point they will have to settle the visa and residency issue for people who want to use Thailand as their base to work in the region. Otherwise nobody but retirees and rich people who already have 3 or 4 homes around the world will buy anything here.

And that is exactly the sort of people they want. No demand on the infrastructure, pay for expensive things, keep quiet, dont make problems...................they dont want low or medium grade people. The government have stated that with their tourism policy. they want quality not quantity. I think the visa rules now reflect this. They want rich over 50's or people who can afford the Thai ELite card or whatever it is.........The working class rest of us can go to hel_l. Or vietnam.

[deminister]

Still people out there, who thought that the Junta is a blessing for Thailand?

[ThaiPauly]

Well ....

Real Estate agents always say prices are going up ....

People who recently bought condos always say prices won't go down ....

People looking for condos to buy always say prices are going down .....

The reality is ... anyone guess ... like the horse races

Good post...think you hit the nail on the head there

[amarka]

"An estimated of 60,000 new units are projected to be constructed in 2007"

Baloney - this is 10 times the number of units that will be built. Where does the Thai media get this "information"?

hi...

i dont think 6,000 is right either. i think they mean total units in thailand and not only condos bangkok.

i can think of projects where several thousand units are being built in bkk alone.

amarka

[amarka]

At some point they will have to settle the visa and residency issue for people who want to use Thailand as their base to work in the region. Otherwise nobody but retirees and rich people who already have 3 or 4 homes around the world will buy anything here.

And that is exactly the sort of people they want. No demand on the infrastructure, pay for expensive things, keep quiet, dont make problems...................they dont want low or medium grade people. The government have stated that with their tourism policy. they want quality not quantity. I think the visa rules now reflect this. They want rich over 50's or people who can afford the Thai ELite card or whatever it is.........The working class rest of us can go to hel_l. Or vietnam.

hi..

yes i would say that you are getting to the point....

lets not forget that some european countries also followed this type of policy too....

not all countries want the mass tourism of countries like spain and the foreign owned ghetos that mass cheap tourism brings...

there is no problem owning property or running a business or getting a visa in thailand if you have enough money....

so i would say the policy is clear and getting clearer for those in doubt...

amarka

[kurtgruen]

I've only been living here for 6 years, and what I see is real estate that is way overpriced anyways. Sometimes, you can find an honest deal, like the 1 1/4 Ray we bought in a beautiful touristy area for 100000 Baht, with #1 Chanot Title, or the other Rai we bought for 160000, with a beautiful creek and mountain views, or a two storey teak house we picked up in a nice area on a 1/4 Rai of land for 300000 Baht, with Chanot as well, but most properties are just way overpriced.

When we first moved here, they wanted almost a million for similar properties in the same town. Asian People love to gamble. They know, that there are dumb enough people to spend millions on land and housing in this country, so they ask unreal amounts of money for their land. They also like to have a big face and pay lots for their properties, so many Thai wives, married to Farang will tell them that they are getting a good deal, paying a million baht for a 100000 Baht property. It's insane to me, but that is how it is. We see people all the time, who fall in the same real estate traps. Thai women coming to our restaurant and bragging that they just bought a three million baht house, that turns out to have a true value of about 500000 Baht or less.

As long as there are walking ATM's in this country, there will be inflated real estate prices. So reading the news....if that three million baht house drops 20% in value, it will only cost you 2.4 million. Not bad, that's only 1.9 million more than it is really worth.

That's my take on real estate in this country.

As for investors, I'm sure, they will survive. At worst, they might have to put in an honest days work like the rest of us working stiffs one day ;-)

The job of the government is to look after it's citizens, not the rich who come to play over here, or foreign investors. I think the present government is doing a pretty good job protecting the interest of Thai people and Thailand and I hope that they will get the chance to continue to rule this country.

I love the new visa regulations, too. I'd love to see about 9/10 of the foreigners disappearing from Thailand. I'm sure that Thailand can get by without a few of the rude, smelly foreigners, who think that their money can buy everything.

Sorry if I am ranting. I am just very protective of Thailand and the Thai way of life and family structure. I hate to see investors coming into countries, throwing their money around and in the process changing a good way of life.

But that's only me. Everyone has an opinion. ;-)

Cheers

Kurt

[yoshiwara]

so................the Thai govt policies are against the poor working-class westerners? (see messages above) give me a break!

[capt_canada42]

This is interesting because as we see gloom and doom here our neighbors

Vietnam will pass Thailand in the near future.

** Vietnam prepares for boom times **

As Vietnam prepares to join the World Trade Organization.

In Viet Nam you can own your own business.

[capt_canada42]

I've only been living here for 6 years, and what I see is real estate that is way overpriced anyways. Sometimes, you can find an honest deal, like the 1 1/4 Ray we bought in a beautiful touristy area for 100000 Baht, with #1 Chanot Title, or the other Rai we bought for 160000, with a beautiful creek and mountain views, or a two storey teak house we picked up in a nice area on a 1/4 Rai of land for 300000 Baht, with Chanot as well, but most properties are just way overpriced.

When we first moved here, they wanted almost a million for similar properties in the same town. Asian People love to gamble. They know, that there are dumb enough people to spend millions on land and housing in this country, so they ask unreal amounts of money for their land. They also like to have a big face and pay lots for their properties, so many Thai wives, married to Farang will tell them that they are getting a good deal, paying a million baht for a 100000 Baht property. It's insane to me, but that is how it is. We see people all the time, who fall in the same real estate traps. Thai women coming to our restaurant and bragging that they just bought a three million baht house, that turns out to have a true value of about 500000 Baht or less.

As long as there are walking ATM's in this country, there will be inflated real estate prices. So reading the news....if that three million baht house drops 20% in value, it will only cost you 2.4 million. Not bad, that's only 1.9 million more than it is really worth.

That's my take on real estate in this country.

As for investors, I'm sure, they will survive. At worst, they might have to put in an honest days work like the rest of us working stiffs one day ;-)

The job of the government is to look after it's citizens, not the rich who come to play over here, or foreign investors. I think the present government is doing a pretty good job protecting the interest of Thai people and Thailand and I hope that they will get the chance to continue to rule this country.

I love the new visa regulations, too. I'd love to see about 9/10 of the foreigners disappearing from Thailand. I'm sure that Thailand can get by without a few of the rude, smelly foreigners, who think that their money can buy everything.

Sorry if I am ranting. I am just very protective of Thailand and the Thai way of life and family structure. I hate to see investors coming into countries, throwing their money around and in the process changing a good way of life.

But that's only me. Everyone has an opinion. ;-)

Cheers

Kurt

Phuket when I came here 25+++ years ago some people were paying a thousand baht for a rai of land

[meelousee]

Foreign Investment Could Hit 7-year Low In Thailand This Year

pending amendments to rules governing foreign-owned firms.

"The Thai Farmers Bank"

"Why does the bank KSC know so much any way?

--TNA 2007-01-07

Some Questions & some answers. But no proof of either, so to the old adage believe only 1/2 what you hear and none of what you read... ?

Ok Smoke and mirrors that will explain this right? Be wise;

just remember this, there is nothing but 'dirt' that means anything the only thing that is more expensive that anything else than when YOU came here is land 'dirt' or din :-) ...

It has one progression that is UP no matter when you buy.... maybe where you buy not when..

So the question is when do they want outside investment? Now... I don’t think so...

OK then now must be the right time? That is when they do it so why don’t we?

Avoiding restrictions is a matter of CASH

[keenok]

I've only been living here for 6 years, and what I see is real estate that is way overpriced anyways. Sometimes, you can find an honest deal, like the 1 1/4 Ray we bought in a beautiful touristy area for 100000 Baht, with #1 Chanot Title, or the other Rai we bought for 160000, with a beautiful creek and mountain views, or a two storey teak house we picked up in a nice area on a 1/4 Rai of land for 300000 Baht, with Chanot as well, but most properties are just way overpriced.

When we first moved here, they wanted almost a million for similar properties in the same town. Asian People love to gamble. They know, that there are dumb enough people to spend millions on land and housing in this country, so they ask unreal amounts of money for their land. They also like to have a big face and pay lots for their properties, so many Thai wives, married to Farang will tell them that they are getting a good deal, paying a million baht for a 100000 Baht property. It's insane to me, but that is how it is. We see people all the time, who fall in the same real estate traps. Thai women coming to our restaurant and bragging that they just bought a three million baht house, that turns out to have a true value of about 500000 Baht or less.

As long as there are walking ATM's in this country, there will be inflated real estate prices. So reading the news....if that three million baht house drops 20% in value, it will only cost you 2.4 million. Not bad, that's only 1.9 million more than it is really worth.

That's my take on real estate in this country.

As for investors, I'm sure, they will survive. At worst, they might have to put in an honest days work like the rest of us working stiffs one day ;-)

The job of the government is to look after it's citizens, not the rich who come to play over here, or foreign investors. I think the present government is doing a pretty good job protecting the interest of Thai people and Thailand and I hope that they will get the chance to continue to rule this country.

I love the new visa regulations, too. I'd love to see about 9/10 of the foreigners disappearing from Thailand. I'm sure that Thailand can get by without a few of the rude, smelly foreigners, who think that their money can buy everything.

Sorry if I am ranting. I am just very protective of Thailand and the Thai way of life and family structure. I hate to see investors coming into countries, throwing their money around and in the process changing a good way of life.

But that's only me. Everyone has an opinion. ;-)

Cheers

Kurt

have to agree that some do see overpriced.for example the 2 storey teak house you bought for 300,000 and are trying to sell on for 600,000 in the classified section seems youve adapted to the thai way of life ,(money is god ) thanks for the amusing read.

[Martin]

The present government, being of an older generation, can be expected to be more conscious of the difference between investment and speculation.

There seems to be little need, or opportunity, for investment (i.e. money that goes into providing productive resources, such as factories with assured customer bases, that make well-paying jobs for citizens).

And there is no reason for, and plenty of reasons against, letting money flow in for speculation.

Rising property prices do not increase nett wealth for householders, and a fall in property prices does not reduce it but does help first-time buyers to 'get on the ladder'.

So I would expect that the government is quite unmoved by the prospect that real estate prices may drop.

Ten years ago may be pre-history to wheeler-dealer whizz-kids, but the members of the present government will remember that the 1997 crash occurred because overseas money was allowed in and fuelled speculation. Countries grow by work and trade, not by speculation in the form of financial games and erecting concrete fantasies.

There is every sign of a Western (possibly including China) financial convulsion coming soon and it is to Thailand's advantage to have positioned itself as well clear of the mayhem as it can. Watch out when the first hedge funds go under, because a lot more will follow fast.

A mere 20% fall in real estate prices will be mild compared to what happens in some countries.

[gmac]

I've only been living here for 6 years, and what I see is real estate that is way overpriced anyways. Sometimes, you can find an honest deal, like the 1 1/4 Ray we bought in a beautiful touristy area for 100000 Baht, with #1 Chanot Title, or the other Rai we bought for 160000, with a beautiful creek and mountain views, or a two storey teak house we picked up in a nice area on a 1/4 Rai of land for 300000 Baht, with Chanot as well, but most properties are just way overpriced.

When we first moved here, they wanted almost a million for similar properties in the same town. Asian People love to gamble. They know, that there are dumb enough people to spend millions on land and housing in this country, so they ask unreal amounts of money for their land. They also like to have a big face and pay lots for their properties, so many Thai wives, married to Farang will tell them that they are getting a good deal, paying a million baht for a 100000 Baht property. It's insane to me, but that is how it is. We see people all the time, who fall in the same real estate traps. Thai women coming to our restaurant and bragging that they just bought a three million baht house, that turns out to have a true value of about 500000 Baht or less.

As long as there are walking ATM's in this country, there will be inflated real estate prices. So reading the news....if that three million baht house drops 20% in value, it will only cost you 2.4 million. Not bad, that's only 1.9 million more than it is really worth.

That's my take on real estate in this country.

As for investors, I'm sure, they will survive. At worst, they might have to put in an honest days work like the rest of us working stiffs one day ;-)

The job of the government is to look after it's citizens, not the rich who come to play over here, or foreign investors. I think the present government is doing a pretty good job protecting the interest of Thai people and Thailand and I hope that they will get the chance to continue to rule this country.

I love the new visa regulations, too. I'd love to see about 9/10 of the foreigners disappearing from Thailand. I'm sure that Thailand can get by without a few of the rude, smelly foreigners, who think that their money can buy everything.

Sorry if I am ranting. I am just very protective of Thailand and the Thai way of life and family structure. I hate to see investors coming into countries, throwing their money around and in the process changing a good way of life.

But that's only me. Everyone has an opinion. ;-)

Cheers

Kurt

Here Here. Couldn't have put it better myself.

[tomyamg00ng]

Check out all the projects in Bangkok

I think there is a gluttony of condo supply in Bangkok. There are literally 2/3 massive projects announced each week. Certain ones have quite a low take up rate.

[rleaton]

The present Thai Govt is setting records for ineptitude....just a bunch of "country bumpkins" who have no business being in charge of a noodle stand much less a country. But, then again, this is Thailand!

[Dupont]

One stupid excuse after another..

At some point they will have to settle the visa and residency issue for people who want to use Thailand as their base to work in the region. Otherwise nobody but retirees and rich people who already have 3 or 4 homes around the world will buy anything here.

And the visa/residency rules mean they can't even stay here to rent a long-term place. So any Thai speculators who thought they were buying to 'rent/let to farangs' are also in for some real financial trouble soon.

Thai landowners, agents and speculators are just starting to realise that they may be about to get their <deleted> kicked financially. Still money coming in, but it was contracted for and promised before all this fuss. If they follow this through, the money coming into the pipe will dry up eventually, the money coming into the country (which is still flowing) will dry up.

No more falangs buying or renting long term. We should only be signing 90 day contracts at most now, even if we are safe. I'm alrright jack, but I may not be 2 - 3- or 10 years down the line.

Retirees, will not come here in future, SAGA magazines and the internet will be full of reports that will put them off. Anybody burnt here next year is likely to be very pissed off and a few IT savvy complainers can wreak havoc on Thailand. Want 10,000 plus pissed of falangs bloging against Thailand.

Concerned family will always help them find information on the internet, and that will inevitably lead them onto Thai Visa.com! Would you send you worst enemy out here in his 80's after reading what we have had to put up with down the years.

Current system for retirees, come here bring your money, make sure you have loads, ensure you keep abreast of the insane regulation changes that take place (at least) yearly. Please bear in mind that by the time you are 70 you are unlikely to either be able to keep up with the income requirements as they rise so often, will be in danger or loosing your house and money, and, should you become ill, your visa will not be renewed.

Nice way to spend retirement isn't. God know most of us younger folk spend time looking on here and worrying. Imagine being 80 and having this shit year on year. Be sure, the retirement market will shrivel as well. It all takes time.

As for the rich, the thai's don't have a chance. Go to The Bahamas for winter (thats where the real rich goto), the Med in the summer and look round. Is it like Thailand? No. What then think of as rich, we think of as middle class at best. It's all relative.

Got to be made of sterner stuff to live in Thailand than most elderly or rich people.

Course the old addage will come into play. MONEY NUMBER ONE. It's as true today as when I came 15 years ago. Rich loose money, law changes or is ignored. Have faith.

[fongvin]

Dear Forum

The fact of the matter is that this country was in steady decline any way, even before the tragic New Year incident.

The Military leadership are making it quite clear that foreigners are quite welcome to come and sit on their beachs for thirty days, but don't expect any other favours ...........................

Another fact is that because of the current political, and economic uncertainty, people and business's are leaving Thailand by the droves, and neighbouring countries are reaping the benefit. I personally wouldn't recommend anybody should embark on foreign investment in this current political circus.

Foreign Embassies in-country are receiving complaint, after complaint about the treatment of their nationals since this new so called leadership, but unfortunately they are unable to effect any influence! Even courts of Human Rights have been inundated with complainants that this leadership is seperating ligitimate families by not allowing spouces, and children to be together.

Its a sad state of affairs, I'm afraid and one should tread very carefully in Siam.

[Dupont]

Dear Forum

The fact of the matter is that this country was in steady decline any way, even before the tragic New Year incident.

The Military leadership are making it quite clear that foreigners are quite welcome to come and sit on their beachs for thirty days, but don't expect any other favours ...........................

Another fact is that because of the current political, and economic uncertainty, people and business's are leaving Thailand by the droves, and neighbouring countries are reaping the benefit. I personally wouldn't recommend anybody should embark on foreign investment in this current political circus.

Foreign Embassies in-country are receiving complaint, after complaint about the treatment of their nationals since this new so called leadership, but unfortunately they are unable to effect any influence! Even courts of Human Rights have been inundated with complainants that this leadership is seperating ligitimate families by not allowing spouces, and children to be together.

Its a sad state of affairs, I'm afraid and one should tread very carefully in Siam.

You are right there.

The investment situation in Vietnam is so spectacular that Thai TV had a special on it last night. It looked like the BBC one from last week with Thai subtitles. But they were talking a lot about it!

[peekint]

With the baht as strong as it is, inflation will hit hard in 2007. There was already a strong inflationary trend that began with the oil crisis ... and no downward adjustments to prices to correspond with the downward adjustment in oil prices.

Property in some areas of Chiang Mai is up 200% in the last two years, with housing starts way up. Speculation is fueling further inflation in property prices.

I think, with the present government's attitude toward investment of any kind (not just FDI), it would seem the inflation will slow down, since real wages and consumer spending will stall. Property prices are bound to drop as consumer debt begins to become delinquent.

I don't see 1997 again, but rather a long, slow decline in the economic outlook for the middle class. The isolationist tendencies of the present government may tend to boost the livelihood of the subsistence farmer, however, since the previous government did everything it could (successfully) to depress farm prices and make the subsistence class dependent on government handouts.

Which is better for the country? It seems to me with a capable government, both are achievable. Thailand neither needs to be driven to the dark ages nor shot to the moon. There is enough for everybody.