Thailand May Be Joining Southeast Asia Growth Boom Despite Baht

[webfact]

Thailand May Be Joining Southeast Asia Growth Boom Despite Baht

By Suttinee Yuvejwattana

 

-- Economists see 3.8% third-quarter GDP growth, best since 2013

-- Rising exports and tourism weathered surge in the currency

 

An economic boom that’s reverberated across Southeast Asia has finally crossed over to Thailand.

 

The economy, which has lagged its neighbors this decade, is projected to have grown at the fastest pace in more than four years last quarter even as the baht surged. There’s reason to be optimistic as exports post double-digit percentage gains and the end of a yearlong mourning period for King Bhumibol Adulyadej bolsters the outlook for consumption.

 

“We’re becoming more and more optimistic as the recovery in exports is more enduring than we expected,” said Eugenia Victorino, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. “There’s still a lot of challenges, particularly the inability of the government to ‘crowd in’ private investment. That would really re-energize the economy.”

 

Full story: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-16/thailand-may-be-joining-southeast-asia-growth-boom-despite-baht

 

-- Bloomberg 2017-11-17

[Eric Loh]

So why are the farmers protesting if we are in a growth boom and why are malls full of vacant stalls and little customers. Growth is highly imbalance and Thailand is running with a single engine and the reduction in foreign direct investments will manifest in the later years. Other countries will benefit from the export boom and will grow more than 5% and Thailand will be happy to see 3.8%. Coups and incompetency of junta government much to be blamed. 

[pieeyed]

I cannot see exports doing very well will the baht being 32.87 to the usd today. Ridiculous estimations from people who dream up figures for their economy predictions. 

[carstenp]

Eric Loh. I have to disagree with you.

26 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

So why are the farmers protesting if we are in a growth boom

You first statement is wrong, because it has nothing to do with grow, but marked prices for there farmer products.

 

26 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

why are malls full of vacant stalls and little customers

Somebody must be shopping, because one of the biggest shopping mall in Thailand Central Plaza, have a raise on almost 20% , wish as I look at it means more shoppers

 

26 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Thailand is running with a single engine

Thailand is not running on 1 engine. The economy engines in Thailand right now is Export, Tourism, Government investment, Infrastructure, Consumer and ECC

Edited November 17, 2017 by carstenp

[carstenp]

12 minutes ago, pieeyed said:

I cannot see exports doing very well will the baht being 32.87 to the usd today. Ridiculous estimations from people who dream up figures for their economy predictions. 

The export I going very well right now. Just for January to September its up  6.4 %

 

http://tradereport.moc.go.th/Report/ReportEng.aspx?Report=TradeEnExportMonthly

 

Quote

Trade of Thailand Year 1992 - 2017 (January - September)
	Year	Value : Million Baht				Growth rate : Percentage
		Trade	Export	Import	Balance	Trade	Export	Import		Balance
	Feb.	1,245,553.4	647,360.4	598,193.0	49,167.4	4.3	-5.3	17.2		-71.6
	Mar.	1,404,069.0	726,021.1	678,047.8	47,973.3	11.7	7.1	17.2		-51.9
	Apr.	1,168,610.0	581,717.1	586,892.8	-5,175.7	9.9	7.3	12.6		-124.8
	May.	1,336,110.0	680,124.7	655,985.2	24,139.5	13.3	10.7	16.2		-51.9
	Jun.	1,329,065.4	693,428.0	635,637.4	57,790.5	8.8	7.9	9.9		-9.9
	Jul.	1,285,840.4	635,791.4	650,049.0	-14,257.6	10.3	6.6	14.3		-151.5
	Aug.	1,352,561.3	707,214.2	645,347.0	61,867.2	9.3	8.6	10.2		-5.8
	Sep.	1,337,203.1	720,175.8	617,027.3	103,148.5	6.7	7.8	5.4		24.5
	Jan.-Sep.	11,655,781.8	6,001,376.0	5,654,405.8	346,970.2	9.0	6.4	11.9		-40.7

What there is bad is the balance sheet is going down. They export more, but dont get benefic from the more sale, and that is as you say correct about the bath is to strong. The value is bigger on export, but that because of higher value of the bath

Edited November 17, 2017 by carstenp
Adding more data

[Eric Loh]

5 minutes ago, carstenp said:

Eric Loh. I have to disagree with you.

It was a tongue in cheek response to the headline that reads growth boom. Tamper down the euphoria that Thailand is enjoying a growth boom which is not. Only export and tourism while the domestic, retail and agriculture sectors are struggling. 

[pieeyed]

I suspect it is all smoke and mirrors. If you look at exports to China which would be way up because of all the deals that Thailand has made with China. In the end the exports do not cover the cost of what Thailand has purchased from China.

[carstenp]

2 minutes ago, pieeyed said:

I suspect it is all smoke and mirrors. If you look at exports to China which would be way up because of all the deals that Thailand has made with China. In the end the exports do not cover the cost of what Thailand has purchased from China.

It has not done that for years. It not new

 

[Cadbury]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

3.8% third quarter GDP growth

This is the reality.

Estimated GDP forecasts for 2017 by Global Finance.

Thailand's GDP for 2017 ............3.3%

Vietnam's GDP for 2017 ............7.5%.

Cambodia's GDP for 2017......... 6.9%

Myanmar's GDP for 2017.......... 7.7%

Laos' GDP for 2017.....................7.3%

 

Every other neighbouring country more than double that of Thailand.

 

"An economic boom that’s reverberated across Southeast Asia has finally crossed over to Thailand". So says the story which is nothing more than propaganda for public digestion. The above figures dispute this nonsense. 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2017 by Cadbury

[carstenp]

5 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

Other economic news:

Estimated GDP forecasts for 2017 by Global Finance.

Thailand's GDP for 2017..............3.3%

Vietnam's GDP for 2017 ............7.5%.

Cambodia's GDP for 2017......... 6.9%

Myanmar's GDP for 2017.......... 7.7%

Laos GDP for 2017.....................7.3%

 

Every other neighbouring country more than double that of Thailand.

Take a bow PM Prayut.

 

You are Absolut right about that, mostly because no private investments and no FDI 

[Eric Loh]

18 minutes ago, pieeyed said:

I suspect it is all smoke and mirrors. If you look at exports to China which would be way up because of all the deals that Thailand has made with China. In the end the exports do not cover the cost of what Thailand has purchased from China.

Some truth in what you say. China takes up 14.7% of our export and China is also our largest importer at 21.03% in 2016. Military hardware?

[Enoon]

32 minutes ago, carstenp said:

You are Absolut right about that, mostly because no private investments and no FDI 

 

Because no-one wants to invest in "Prayutopia".

 

 

Edited November 17, 2017 by Enoon

[natway09]

In some ways Cadbury you are using countries to compare that are 10-15 years behind Thailand in 

development.

I saw the Bank of Thailand Director the other day saying that the Thai currency is appreciating in line with other SEA currencies well he must be asleep

I got 405 Rupiah for 1 Thai Bht (never before) & the Ringit which used to be 1 to 10 is now about 7.4.

So he is blind or covering up

[taipeir]

I suspect there is a wave of Chinese money going into Bangkok in particular .

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

[wakeupplease]

Where do all these figures come from I wonder, perhaps the same place TAT gets them from and that is out of their own rear end.

[observer90210]

Who is the financial guru behind all these lovely predictions ?  Looks like Gordon Gekko is back in business !!?

Edited November 17, 2017 by observer90210

[gamini]

Thai bashers don't like good news about the economy.  Brits dont like the fact that the Thai economy is doing much better than theirs

[Chris Lawrence]

They need inflows to finance the deals the General wants to set up. So by saying it does it really mean it is happening or is it propaganda? But I suppose when you have the military on all the important public companies one can't go wrong in this atmosphere or current climate of "we will do it but won't be transparent in what we are doing".

 

Just talk it up.

[spidermike007]

23 hours ago, Cadbury said:

This is the reality.

Estimated GDP forecasts for 2017 by Global Finance.

Thailand's GDP for 2017 ............3.3%

Vietnam's GDP for 2017 ............7.5%.

Cambodia's GDP for 2017......... 6.9%

Myanmar's GDP for 2017.......... 7.7%

Laos' GDP for 2017.....................7.3%

 

Every other neighbouring country more than double that of Thailand.

 

"An economic boom that’s reverberated across Southeast Asia has finally crossed over to Thailand". So says the story which is nothing more than propaganda for public digestion. The above figures dispute this nonsense. 

 

 

 

 

 

Not really a reasonable argument, due to the fact that these countries have small to minuscule economies, and are emerging from the darkness. Better to compare to dynamic regional economies like Indonesia, and Malaysia. Of course Cambodia and Laos are growing. Laos had a total GDP of $16 billion last year. Cambodia had a GDP of $20 billion. Burma is doing a bit better at $67 billion. But, so much of the current investment there is from China, where the resources are being stripped, and the country is being sold down the river, to a despot nation, with alot of cash. Also, Burma is emerging from the stone age, after being repressed by a greedy, myopic, power hungry, and blood thirsty military, for decades. These nations have a long way to go, and alot of room for growth. By comparison, the Los Angeles area has a GMP of $755 billion. 

 

Thailand has seen it's glory days. There are over 7,000 Japanese firms either manufacturing, or operating within Thailand. Where would the country be without them? Continued fiscal mismanagement, the complete botching of relatively high baht Western tourism, in favor of low baht Chinese tourism, and utter incompetence has led to this disaster. It will continue, as there is no sign of any really competent leadership on the horizon. 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 18, 2017 by spidermike007

[Cadbury]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

 

Not really a reasonable argument, due to the fact that these countries have small to minuscule economies, and are emerging from the darkness. Better to compare to dynamic regional economies like Indonesia, and Malaysia. Of course Cambodia and Laos are growing. Laos had a total GDP of $16 billion last year. Cambodia had a GDP of $20 billion. Burma is doing a bit better at $67 billion. But, so much of the current investment there is from China, where the resources are being stripped, and the country is being sold down the river, to a despot nation, with alot of cash. Also, Burma is emerging from the stone age, after being repressed by a greedy, myopic, power hungry, and blood thirsty military, for decades. These nations have a long way to go, and alot of room for growth. By comparison, the Los Angeles area has a GMP of $755 billion. 

 

Thailand has seen it's glory days. There are over 7,000 Japanese firms either manufacturing, or operating within Thailand. Where would the country be without them? Continued fiscal mismanagement, the complete botching of relatively high baht Western tourism, in favor of low baht Chinese tourism, and utter incompetence has led to this disaster. It will continue, as there is no sign of any really competent leadership on the horizon. 

 

 

 

 

I take your point about the size of the economies particularly when comparing Myanmar to Thailand. But GDP percentage growth figures do have some meaning when compared to a rapidly developing neighbour country like Vietnam (with a GDP about half that of Thailand). It has shown consistent steady growth now for the last 10-12 years at an average of 6.1%.

Whereas Thailand's GDP growth % has been staggering up and down annually for an average growth over the same period of 2.9%. 

Interestingly Malaysia's GDP annual growth has been lurching along and following the same trajectory as Thailand. 

Vietnam seems to be the only country that has steady upward growth trend without the hiccups of Thailand and Malaysia. Can't explain the fluctuations other than maybe statistical recording but there might be other reasons.

I totally agree with everything else you have to say in your comments.

 

[soomak]

On 11/17/2017 at 11:48 AM, natway09 said:

In some ways Cadbury you are using countries to compare that are 10-15 years behind Thailand in 

development.

 

Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar are 40-50 years behind Thailand in terms of economic development.

Vietnam is 25 years behind.

 

Its really not a fair comparison, as growth usually slows when a country gets more developed.

 

Still, Thailand could grow faster with a better government.

[taipeir]

Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar are 40-50 years behind Thailand in terms of economic development. Vietnam is 25 years behind.  

Its really not a fair comparison, as growth usually slows when a country gets more developed.

 

Still, Thailand could grow faster with a better government.

 

 

The impression I get is Vietnam is at most 10 years behind Thailand and catching up very quickly.  It will certainly catch up eventually because of large investments into it and also entrepreneurial bent of the people along with the single party government which makes it more predictable politically.

 

 

Thailand could boom again if it continues to transition to a regional services economy taking some of the spillover from Singapore for example. Property, finance, tech services...that's the only way they can beat the slowdown,.if it wants to.

 

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[soomak]

On 11/22/2017 at 1:20 PM, taipeir said:

Thailand could boom again if it continues to transition to a regional services economy taking some of the spillover from Singapore for example. Property, finance, tech services...that's the only way they can beat the slowdown,.if it wants to.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I actually find it very unlikely that Thailand would boom again, as the culture and education system do not support a booming finance or tech industry.

Tourism, property market, manufacturing, those are the growth drivers of Thailand, but not enough to be anywhere near the developed Asian nations such as Singapore, South Korea, Japan or Hong Kong.

 

Personally I don't see Thailand becoming a high income economy in the next 20 years, but anything can happen...

Edited November 24, 2017 by soomak
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