Thai economy to grow by 4% in Q3 :DPM Somkid

[amvet]

Just now, simoh1490 said:

Because ten years is too long of a period to be useful or meaningful, most people want to understand the relationship between current GDP and previous year to determine the direction of an economy. Typical GDP comparisons are based on year on year comparisons and that's the convention that's most often used.

If you were planning on getting a loan or making an investment of more than a year wouldn't you want an idea of long term GDP? 

[simoh1490]

Just now, amvet said:

If you were planning on getting a loan or making an investment of more than a year wouldn't you want an idea of long term GDP? 

I doubt it, I might want to know what previous years GDP was over ten years but as said, an average of ten years, no. And if I saw individual annual GDP figures I might be tempted to dig deeper in a lending or investment situation to better understand why a particular year was an exception, just as I would with any investment.

[amvet]

8 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I doubt it, I might want to know what previous years GDP was over ten years but as said, an average of ten years, no. And if I saw individual annual GDP figures I might be tempted to dig deeper in a lending or investment situation to better understand why a particular year was an exception, just as I would with any investment.

All banks in a particular country come up with 10 year CD rates that are very close to each other.  Do you think they don't look at 10 year GDP averages to arrive at those numbers? 

[JimHuaHin]

2 hours ago, Happyman58 said:

I agree Cadbury chocolate Vietnam and Myanmar and even Laos are leaving the Thai economy behind  My wife is Thai and she is a business lady  She says she has never seen it so bad here . Empty shops, houses empty, infrastructure  falling down, Blind Freddy can see that Maybe  Blind Ronnie can not

 

Agree with Happyman58's comments and observations.  Both large and small Thai business people I have talked with over the past few months are complaining about declining sales and declining production.  People and loosing jobs, but some are able to pick up other work.  Some fruits and vegetables are unavailable in the shops and markets due to the floods in central and northern Thailand.  A good Thai friend's brother works at the port in Bangkok, and he says that there is less produce leaving Thailand.

[Orton Rd]

3 hours ago, Thai Ron said:

This will piss off the Thai bashers something rotten.

Not really, we all know Thais are rubbish at maths, he probably hit the wrong key on his calculator!

[Cadbury]

41 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Because an average over ten years is too long of a period to be useful or meaningful, most people want to understand the relationship between current GDP and previous year to determine the direction of an economy. Typical GDP comparisons are based on year on year comparisons and that's the convention that's most often used.

I am intrigued and need to know more about your reasoning. If you speak of year on year comparisons (and you don't like averages) do you meaning one year compared to the previous or next year as be the case.

Disregarding the coup factor of Thailand what analysis would you make of these successive year on year comparisons.

2010......7.5%

2011......0.8% drop of 6.7%

and 

2012......7.2% gain of 6.9%

2013......2.7% drop of 4.5%

 

What trend would you conclude from each set of numbers? 

[candide]

57 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I agree, seeing what past year GDP figures were is useful, however an average of 10 past years GDP is pointless.

That's not the way economists see it. That's not the way they do economic analyses and forecasts, and that's not what is taught in courses in economics.Past year economic data are insufficient to assess government policies or countries' competitiveness. 

[simoh1490]

8 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

I am intrigued and need to know more about your reasoning. If you speak of year on year comparisons (and you don't like averages) do you meaning one year compared to the previous or next year as be the case.

Disregarding the coup factor of Thailand what analysis would you make of these successive year on year comparisons.

2010......7.5%

2011......0.8% drop of 6.7%

and 

2012......7.2% gain of 6.9%

2013......2.7% drop of 4.5%

 

What trend would you conclude from each set of numbers? 

I don't care about trends in GDP and I don't think many economists do either, as with investment analysis I'm keen to see consistency and to understand the reasons for anomalies, once I understand those things I can make a decision as to yes/no, good/bad etc..

[simoh1490]

11 minutes ago, candide said:

That's not the way economists see it. That's not the way they do economic analyses and forecasts, and that's not what is taught in courses in economics.Past year economic data are insufficient to assess government policies or countries' competitiveness. 

Economists, perhaps with the exception of the World Bank, do not see 10 year average GDP as a meaningful figure, nor is it referenced anywhere in modern mainstream economic text books. When economists, investors and anyone else make country comparisons, or indeed evaluate the economy of a single country, the highest unit of measure is always a year because that is a common denominator which allows for easy comparisons. Ten year averages do not provide that same ease of comparison and are simply a statistic that can be derived rather being a useful one that is important. Investors also need to understand year on year GDP figure to understand the impact of growth and adjust asset allocations accordingly, an average over a long period does not provide the granularity necessary to do that and neither is it an easily comparable number.

[Cadbury]

11 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I don't care about trends in GDP and I don't think many economists do either, as with investment analysis I'm keen to see consistency and to understand the reasons for anomalies, once I understand those things I can make a decision as to yes/no, good/bad etc..

Thank you Simoh you have satisfied my intrigue.

1. You give no explanation of the Thai year on year comparisons like you prefer to do.

2. You claim many economists are not interested in trends of any sorts

3. Investment analysts are not interested in trends either. 

4. You are dismissive of World Bank economists.

 

Thanks Simoh. Now I understand completely. Good luck with your decisions. 

 

 

 

[candide]

13 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Economists, perhaps with the exception of the World Bank, do not see 10 year average GDP as a meaningful figure, nor is it referenced anywhere in modern mainstream economic text books. When economists, investors and anyone else make country comparisons, or indeed evaluate the economy of a single country, the highest unit of measure is always a year because that is a common denominator which allows for easy comparisons. Ten year averages do not provide that same ease of comparison and are simply a statistic that can be derived rather being a useful one that is important. Investors also need to understand year on year GDP figure to understand the impact of growth and adjust asset allocations accordingly, an average over a long period does not provide the granularity necessary to do that and neither is it an easily comparable number.

Haem! There's a whole branch of economics called econometrics which is just focused on the analysis of time series..

I agree with you that "averages" are oversimplistic but I was more generally focused on the relevance of data older than previous year's, whatever the method used (there are better methods than plain averages).

Well, I assume that you are familliar with financial markets, such as stock exchange, which are increasingly influenced by short term considerations. Reasoning year on year, or even quarter on quarter is quite common in this case.

That's different for policy analysis or for forecasting. You cannot establish any clue of causality with only previous year's data.

As for the World Bank being the only one to use historical data, there's also the IMF, the European Commission, etc... If you look at the list of previous chief economists of the World Bank, you will see that they are not outmoded and even include a Nobel price winner.

Anyway, below a few comparative data, both in time and across countries.

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, Cadbury said:

Thank you Simoh you have satisfied my intrigue.

1. You give no explanation of the Thai year on year comparisons like you prefer to do.

2. You claim many economists are not interested in trends of any sorts

3. Investment analysts are not interested in trends either. 

4. You are dismissive of World Bank economists.

 

Thanks Simoh. Now I understand completely. Good luck with your decisions. 

 

 

 

I didn't say any of those things, you did, I simply said that a ten year average GDP figure is not useful to many other than perhaps WB economists.

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, candide said:

Haem! There's a whole branch of economics called econometrics which is just focused on the analysis of time series..

I agree with you that "averages" are oversimplistic but I wa

Well, I assume that you are familliar with financial markets, such as stock exchange, which are increasingly influenced by short term considerations. Reasonning year on year, or even quarter on quarter is quite common.

That's different for policy analysis or forecasting

I don't see that changes anything in terms of usefulness, just because something can be calculated doesn't mean to say it has a practical and useful application in the wider environemnt.

[observer90210]

Well well now that is good news if the economy is getting a boom....

 

in that case why not make the visas fully free for for all farangs who enjoy staying in Thailand for half of the year ?  .-)

[amvet]

2 hours ago, JimHuaHin said:

 

Agree with Happyman58's comments and observations.  Both large and small Thai business people I have talked with over the past few months are complaining about declining sales and declining production.  People and loosing jobs, but some are able to pick up other work.  Some fruits and vegetables are unavailable in the shops and markets due to the floods in central and northern Thailand.  A good Thai friend's brother works at the port in Bangkok, and he says that there is less produce leaving Thailand.

Fun is fun and Thai bashing good sport but....

Laos exports $3 billion vs Thailand $215 billion vs Vietnam $169

GDP per capita Vietnam $6,400 Thailand $16,800 Laos $5,700

Comparing Thailand Vietnam and Laos is like comparing kindergarten football with the World's cup. 3 billion to 215 billion?

 

[amvet]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

I didn't say any of those things, you did, I simply said that a ten year average GDP figure is not useful to many other than perhaps WB economists.

Name one economist that does not use ten year average GDP figures in financial predictions of ten years or more.

[candide]

9 minutes ago, amvet said:

Fun is fun and Thai bashing good sport but....

Laos exports $3 billion vs Thailand $215 billion vs Vietnam $169

GDP per capita Vietnam $6,400 Thailand $16,800 Laos $5,700

Comparing Thailand Vietnam and Laos is like comparing kindergarten football with the World's cup. 3 billion to 215 billion?

 

You are right, but look at the table in my post #41. There are several countries that are more comparable to Thailand. They all significantly outperform Thailand.

[simoh1490]

2 hours ago, amvet said:

All banks in a particular country come up with 10 year CD rates that are very close to each other.  Do you think they don't look at 10 year GDP averages to arrive at those numbers? 

I know they don't, 10 year CD rates are determined by Fed fund rates and yields on long term T'bills.

 

https://us.deposits.org/accounts/bank-of-america-10-year-cd-rates.html

[amvet]

4 minutes ago, candide said:

You are right, but look at the table in my post #41. There are several countries that are more comparable to Thailand. They all significantly outperform Thailand.

Are they the same size and in ASEAN.

[RichardColeman]

Wait for it, these figures will grow expotentially between now and the election , and the PM now and after (same guy) will use this to show what a great job he's doing

[Thai Ron]

7 minutes ago, amvet said:

Name one economist that does not use ten year average GDP figures in financial predictions of ten years or more.

Sorry but who gives a monkey's what economists think anyway; they get it wrong more than they get it right.

Markets are forward-looking and while past performance is useful to historians, going back a decade is about as much use to an investor committing funds in expectation of returns as a used tea bag.

 

Besides, if any of us were ace investors, we wouldn't be scratching around in Thailand trying to stretch a buck in pursuit of a better lifestyle than we could afford at home, would we?

[candide]

11 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I know they don't, 10 year CD rates are determined by Fed fund rates and yields on long term T'bills.

 

https://us.deposits.org/accounts/bank-of-america-10-year-cd-rates.html

"For this long dated product, monetary policy considerations from the FED and the state of the economy (including inflation) are highly important inputs that are forecasted by Bank of America in its financial models to calculate this rate."

And how does the Bank of America calculate inputs? Last year' GDP? Of course it's a bit more sophisticated than just calculating averages. You need people trained in econometrics for that!

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, candide said:

"For this long dated product, monetary policy considerations from the FED and the state of the economy (including inflation) are highly important inputs that are forecasted by Bank of America in its financial models to calculate this rate.

and how does the Bank of America calculate inputs? Last year' GDP?

1

Give it a rest, nowhere does it say they use last years GDP, they simply say that known future policy decisions plus the state of the economy, (not last years GDP) are all inputs.

[amvet]

21 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I know they don't, 10 year CD rates are determined by Fed fund rates and yields on long term T'bills.

 

https://us.deposits.org/accounts/bank-of-america-10-year-cd-rates.html

For this long dated product, monetary policy considerations from the FED and the state of the economy (including inflation) are highly important inputs that are forecasted by Bank of America in its financial models to calculate this rate.  GDP rates are part of the forecasting.

[candide]

15 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Give it a rest, nowhere does it say they use last years GDP, they simply say that known future policy decisions plus the state of the economy, (not last years GDP) are all inputs.

You obviously failed to notice... that I was being sarcastic

[chainarong]

6 hours ago, Cadbury said:

I seriously doubt that Ron. But I would like to offer my small contribution.

This story was in the news just a few days ago. Does it get repeated simply because the military want to brag about it again.

Nothing to crow about really; the truth is the Thai GDP growth figures bounce around all over the place......... quarter to quarter and year to year. So good growth for one quarter means practically nothing. That doesn't stop a bit of military mutual backslapping. Even annual GDP growth figures go up and down like a hookers drawers as can be seen below. Nothing consistent whatsoever. Maybe poor statistical recording.......whatever! The World Bank prediction is for a Thai   GDP growth for the year 2017 as 3.3%. The average GDP growth since 2006 comes out at a lowly 2.9%.

2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
5%	5.4%	1.7%	-0.7%	7.5%	0.8%	7.2%
2013	2014	2015	2016*	2017*
2.7%	0.8%	2.8%	3.2%	3.3%

There's figures and thems there dam figures, figure that out.

[amvet]

40 minutes ago, Thai Ron said:

Sorry but who gives a monkey's what economists think anyway; they get it wrong more than they get it right.

Markets are forward-looking and while past performance is useful to historians, going back a decade is about as much use to an investor committing funds in expectation of returns as a used tea bag.

 

Besides, if any of us were ace investors, we wouldn't be scratching around in Thailand trying to stretch a buck in pursuit of a better lifestyle than we could afford at home, would we?

In small and large ways economists have a hand in determining every facet of your life.  Food prices, heart operations and the price of lady drinks in Pattaya are all determined in some way by economists.  Markets set the price of things in real time for today and tomorrow.  I predict the future by knowing the past.  Ignorance of the past decade condemns a person to repeat the mistakes of the past decade. 

 

Most economists get it right most of the time.  I don't think you have a good idea what most economists do for a living. 

[amvet]

21 minutes ago, chainarong said:

There's figures and thems there dam figures, figure that out.

It is what high school dropouts say when asked to perform mathematics beyond arithmetic.   

[Thai Ron]

2 minutes ago, amvet said:

In small and large ways economists have a hand in determining every facet of your life.  Food prices, heart operations and the price of lady drinks in Pattaya are all determined in some way by economists.  Markets set the price of things in real time for today and tomorrow.  I predict the future by knowing the past.  Ignorance of the past decade condemns a person to repeat the mistakes of the past decade. 

 

Most economists get it right most of the time.  I don't think you have a good idea what most economists do for a living. 

Bullshit

You're trying to make yourself sound sage but you're just regurgitating tired old cliches.

Economists don't determine the prices for any of the waffle you just spouted - even indirectly - unless, of course, you include their own personal consumption in the demand equation

[amvet]

18 minutes ago, Thai Ron said:

Bullshit

You're trying to make yourself sound sage but you're just regurgitating tired old cliches.

Economists don't determine the prices for any of the waffle you just spouted - even indirectly - unless, of course, you include their own personal consumption in the demand equation

Commodities markets determine the price of all commodities.  Those traders work for or are economists.  Ergo the price of your waffle is determined by economist (assuming your waffle is made out of wheat the information is below).  

 

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/commodityprices.asp

 

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=wheat