Prayuth Reshuffling Deck In Hope Of Popularity Trump Card: Pundits

By Pravit Rojanaphruk, Senior Staff Writer

 

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha arrives Oct. 31 to Khon Kaen province with members of his cabinet to inspect flood damage.

 

BANGKOK — Although the details of who’s in and out in the cabinet reshuffle have yet to be announced, politicians and critics are seeing it as a pivot by the military regime toward elections next year.

 

Among them is former senior Democrat MP Kraisak Choonhavan, who said Thursday that junta leader and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s revamping of his cabinet is a sign that his military government is preparing to compete for votes, and even more, a desperate bid to shore up its flagging popularity.

 

Full Story: http://www.khaosodenglish.com/featured/2017/11/23/prayuth-reshuffling-deck-hope-popularity-trump-card-pundits/

 

-- © Copyright Khaosod English 2017-11-23

"Among speculation about the latest cabinet reshuffle is the possibility that key members of such parties, such as the Chartthaipattana or Krung Jai Thai parties, could be brought in to join the cabinet.

Dean of Ubon Ratchathani University’s political science department, Titipol Phakdeewanich, said the reshuffle is meant to tweak and introduce policies that can attract votes and reverse the sliding popularity of the junta, which calls itself the National Council for Peace and Order.

Titipol said that despite polls suggesting the junta is highly popular, they probably know the reality is different. “It’s about creating a comfort zone for themselves and an acknowledgment of its steeply dwindling popularity,” he said."

 

The Junta knows that it is unpopular and that it desperately needs allies from the political class. I find it VERY interesting that the Junta isn't reaching out to the Democrats. I wonder if such an outreach already occurred and was rebuffed? VERY, VERY interesting...

 

The parties named above need to be VERY careful; once you side with a military government, you have them tattooed on your forehead for life. If either party nominates Prayut for PM in the future, they will be taking that action to the grave. 

 

"...an acknowledgment of its steeply dwindling popularity..."

 

These are perilous times; dwindling popularity and a desire to stay in power are a dangerous combination...

 

Do the math and you know that even with the 3 mid-size parties supporting him in the next election, it will not be enough to form the government. The best bet is for the Dem to get behind him and with the mid size parties getting more party lists due to the complex MMA system, might be sufficient to form the government. As long as Ahbisit is the leader of the Dem, he will be too weak to refuse some arm twisting and a chance to be deputy PM. 

 

Or

 

PTP looks unable to win the majority because the MMA system was designed to do just that. It will possibly lead to an impasse electing a PM and the upper house will be brought in and the combine votes will allow Prayut to be the next PM. And we can expect any round of chaos to follow.

Interesting... but I have to disagree a bit.

 

I don't see how the Dems can join forces with the military without it being (literal!) political suicide for the party, no matter the arm-twisting. And although I am less sure of this, I don't see Abhisit going along with it either, despite the arm-twisting; it would shred permanently what little reputation he has left. I do agree about the numbers.

 

I don't see any other way for Prayut to try to stay as PM except for using the clause and the appointed senate. And I strongly agree that a round of chaos will follow.

 

As the old Chinese curse goes; 

 

May you live in interesting times

Dem Party alone will not be able to form the government. He will likely to fair much worse then the previous election. That will mean that he will have to negotiate with the 3 major mid size parties and some smaller parties to have a chance to form the government. To me that is a tall order. Like you I hope he realize the folly of going to bed with the military as he will be push around. Best chance is they join force with PTP and firewall the military ambition. Far fetch, maybe maybe not. Think he still bow to the military. 

I think we are in a race to the bottom regarding our respective view of Abhisit! 

 

Again, I disagree a bit...

 

I suspect that the Dems will do okay in the next election; much better than they deserve. I say that as they have deep roots in their areas and the country at large. In essence, they are the default party when everything else is mucked up. My sense is that the election (when it actually comes) will be a broad Red vs Green affair, and when that kind of election occurs, it is often the wimpy, snotty third party that slides up the middle. Whether they then could form a government with the other three mid-sized party, I don't know the numbers well enough to say.

 

Yes, agreed that a Dem/Red coalition would probably be best, but it's doubtful... In theory it makes sense and is in the interest of both parties, but the history would be a very, very hard thing to get past. I would imagine that the discussions regarding who gets the PM chair alone would sink it.

 

I truly am not sure what is going to happen; at the moment I see a stalemate forming where no one has enough seats to form a government, but each has the power to block the other. And what happens then is beyond my guess the moment.

 

Don't ya just love politics?

 

29 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Interesting... but I have to disagree a bit.

 

I don't see how the Dems can join forces with the military without it being (literal!) political suicide for the party, no matter the arm-twisting. And although I am less sure of this, I don't see Abhisit going along with it either, despite the arm-twisting; it would shred permanently what little reputation he has left. I do agree about the numbers.

 

I don't see any other way for Prayut to try to stay as PM except for using the clause and the appointed senate. And I strongly agree that a round of chaos will follow.

 

As the old Chinese curse goes; 

 

May you live in interesting times

Mightn't you be overthinking? Maybe they are just making it up as they go along, safe in the knowledge they can just say 'We aren't satisfied that the situation is stable enough yet. We need 5 more years. Get back to us then and any backchat in the meantime will find you in prison for 10 years.'

 

I doubt they are cracking down on the Internet over 'Dutch girls must be punished for having big boobies'...

3 minutes ago, baboon said:

Mightn't you be overthinking? Maybe they are just making it up as they go along, safe in the knowledge they can just say 'We aren't satisfied that the situation is stable enough yet. We need 5 more years. Get back to us then and any backchat in the meantime will find you in prison for 10 years.'

 

I doubt they are cracking down on the Internet over 'Dutch girls must be punished for having big boobies'...

Perhaps... but speculating is fun.

 

And you do not punish women, Dutch or otherwise, for having big boobies!

 

1 minute ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Perhaps... but speculating is fun.

 

And you do not punish women, Dutch or otherwise, for having big boobies!

 

They should be rewarded if anything...

 

No, don't get me wrong. I find your musings of interest. However being a pessimist, I just don't know that they won't just stay put and really hammer in the nails of repression - they have been here for four years: Well why not five? And after five years, why not six..?

11 minutes ago, baboon said:

They should be rewarded if anything...

 

No, don't get me wrong. I find your musings of interest. However being a pessimist, I just don't know that they won't just stay put and really hammer in the nails of repression - they have been here for four years: Well why not five? And after five years, why not six..?

They should be equal!

 

Will they try to hammer in the nails of repression and delay electins? A fair question. I don't believe so as they have said that there will be an election, and very few things rile a populace like an overt broken promise of representation. Further, the reason given for the delay was to complete the funeral procession. That is now done; see previous point. Finally, there just seems to be something in the air; it is a time of change. In order to put that 'back in the bottle' would require an act so heinous that it would do serious damage to the country itself. 

 

I think it is simpler than that. Traditionally, a government gets four years, and after that needs to renew a mandate or go away. And that even applies to a military government..

 

If an election is not held, I think it'd be mass demonstrations in the street, and not just by Reds.

 

We'll see...

27 minutes ago, baboon said:

They should be rewarded if anything...

 

No, don't get me wrong. I find your musings of interest. However being a pessimist, I just don't know that they won't just stay put and really hammer in the nails of repression - they have been here for four years: Well why not five? And after five years, why not six..?

 

I tend to agree. Having come this far I can't see them taking any risks. Too easy for them to either stage some unrest or blow something out of proportion as yet another excuse to delay elections again for six months to a year.

 

Their strategy so far with regard to election promises has been sometime , later, never. It has worked well for them so far because the people whose protests justified the coup in the first place  are only just beginning to see they are not the dog wagging the tail they thought themselves to be. Those people are going to have to embrace the fact that if you want meaningful democracy , instigating a coup if you lose is not a long term solution

Edited November 23, 20178 yr by Denim
Spelling

Call me crazy, but I sometimes imagine there's an election soon. Thailand has a new prime minister and people take to the streets to celebrate. But they're not celebrating a new PM, they're celebrating the fact the old one has gone (and letting it be known). And it's this imagining that makes me feel like this lot aren't going anywhere. Their god like complexes just won't allow it. 

1 minute ago, rkidlad said:

Call me crazy, but I sometimes imagine there's an election soon. Thailand has a new prime minister and people take to the streets to celebrate. But they're not celebrating a new PM, they're celebrating the fact the old one has gone (and letting it be known). And it's this imagining that makes me feel like this lot aren't going anywhere. Their god like complexes just won't allow it. 

This sounds like the Mugabe syndrome.

I don't think Apisit can side with the military again, not after the debacle of the last four years. In fact the best thing he can do is resign. A lot of middle class Thais don't like Thaksin and Pheua Thai and yet see The Democrats as weak under Apisit. They need someone more down to earth who can relate to the Thai people.

Suthep threatened to split The Democrats with his support of Prayud but the dismal price of rubber has damaged his credibility. I expect the southern Thais will return to The Democrat fold.

Pheua Thai will win the constituency seats hands down in the next election but may be denied the majority of overall seats by the bizarre mechanics of Meechai's latest creation.

However I believe it is possible The Democrats and Pheua Thai could join forces to form a government. These are not normal times and  abnormal behaviour may be necessary to show the people that politicians can work for the people apart from themselves. There are good people in both parties.

It wouldn't be difficult to carve up the ministries between themselves beforehand,. Anything is possible. 

 

1 hour ago, Denim said:

This sounds like the Mugabe syndrome.

It does. doesn't it? And the poor useful idiots wake to find that nothing has changed except the man at the top.

 

SNAFU

 

 

He looks a bit pale. His plane is not as big as Trumps.

 

By the way I thought we were banned from using "The Junta" word?

21 minutes ago, Chris Lawrence said:

He looks a bit pale. His plane is not as big as Trumps.

 

By the way I thought we were banned from using "The Junta" word?

No, it's the word "dictator" that is banned - and "ars3h0le" too.

Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic?

10 hours ago, Denim said:

 

I tend to agree. Having come this far I can't see them taking any risks. Too easy for them to either stage some unrest or blow something out of proportion as yet another excuse to delay elections again for six months to a year.

 

Their strategy so far with regard to election promises has been sometime , later, never. It has worked well for them so far because the people whose protests justified the coup in the first place  are only just beginning to see they are not the dog wagging the tail they thought themselves to be. Those people are going to have to embrace the fact that if you want meaningful democracy , instigating a coup if you lose is not a long term solution

Interesting post, but I don't quite agree... respectfully.

 

I think that the Junta has to hold elections soon, and there are several reasons for that.

 

As I noted above, they have promised elections, and promising representation then not delivering is a really big political sin. Now, before you say that they promised them before and did not deliver, they had a great and legitimate excuse in dealing with both the funeral and coronation. I do not see a legitimate excuse anymore.

 

Again as above, there is a general feeling around the world that a government's term is about four years. Yes, in some places it is three, in some it is five, but generally speaking it is four years or so. The current government is approaching the four year mark and needs some kind of renewal.

 

As denim noted above, some of the people who supported the coup are beginning to peel away from the current government for a variety of reasons. Politically speaking, it is in the Junta's interests to have an election before too many of those people leave. Once they go, they almost never come back.

 

When one looks at the recent history of Thailand, elections have been prevalent for a while now; Thais have come to expect an election of some sort. It is this expectation that the Junta would need to fight, and I don't see a real good argument against it. Is there mayhem on the streets? Nope. Are there serious issues that need to be dealt with before an election? Nope. In its most simple form, is there a GOOD reason to not have elections, other than the Junta doesn't want one? Nope. 

 

Unless the Junta can come up with a really good reason not to have an election (not a manufactured one), they need to have one soon. If they don't, then they lose both legitimacy and credibility. And when both credibility and legitimacy start going downhill, they almost never reverse course.

 

Interesting times...

 

Edited November 24, 20178 yr by Samui Bodoh

I can't say I know many Thai people, but what I can tell him is that none of them like him, his policies, his leadership or would vote for him, so he can pretty much do what he likes, they wont change their opinion. (unless its free whiskey for all and the pick-up for free)

11 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

They should be equal!

 

Will they try to hammer in the nails of repression and delay electins? A fair question. I don't believe so as they have said that there will be an election, and very few things rile a populace like an overt broken promise of representation. Further, the reason given for the delay was to complete the funeral procession. That is now done; see previous point. Finally, there just seems to be something in the air; it is a time of change. In order to put that 'back in the bottle' would require an act so heinous that it would do serious damage to the country itself.

If an election is not held, I think it'd be mass demonstrations in the street, and not just by Reds.

 

Who now gives a blind bit of notice to election promises? We've already had 3 broken election promises. It is now part of the ACCEPTED Thai political scene . . . it is now the NORM. What would demonstrating do, anyway? I'm afraid that the army bully-boys have the country over the barrel, literally, and that Prayut will juggle things - one way or the other - to suit him and him alone. After his ego-boosting Trump card, an election loss-of-face would result in hari kari . . . here's hoping.

Edited November 24, 20178 yr by Ossy
punctuation

7 minutes ago, Ossy said:

Who now gives a blind bit of notice to election promises? We've already had 3 broken election promises. It is now part of the ACCEPTED Thai political scene . . . it is now the NORM. What would demonstrating do, anyway? I'm afraid that the army bully-boys have the country over the barrel, literally, and that Prayut will juggle things - one way or the other - to suit him and him alone. After his ego-boosting Trump card, an election loss-of-face would result in hari kari . . . here's hoping.

3 broken election promises? I think you will find it is more like 7.

 

As for anything he said to Trump, forget it. Trump will have forgotten five minutes after their meeting and didn't care in the first place.

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Interesting post, but I don't quite agree... respectfully.

 

I think that the Junta has to hold elections soon, and there are several reasons for that.

 

As I noted above, they have promised elections, and promising representation then not delivering is a really big political sin. Now, before you say that they promised them before and did not deliver, they had a great and legitimate excuse in dealing with both the funeral and coronation. I do not see a legitimate excuse anymore.

 

Again as above, there is a general feeling around the world that a government's term is about four years. Yes, in some places it is three, in some it is five, but generally speaking it is four years or so. The current government is approaching the four year mark and needs some kind of renewal.

 

As denim noted above, some of the people who supported the coup are beginning to peel away from the current government for a variety of reasons. Politically speaking, it is in the Junta's interests to have an election before too many of those people leave. Once they go, they almost never come back.

 

When one looks at the recent history of Thailand, elections have been prevalent for a while now; Thais have come to expect an election of some sort. It is this expectation that the Junta would need to fight, and I don't see a real good argument against it. Is there mayhem on the streets? Nope. Are there serious issues that need to be dealt with before an election? Nope. In its most simple form, is there a GOOD reason to not have elections, other than the Junta doesn't want one? Nope. 

 

Unless the Junta can come up with a really good reason not to have an election (not a manufactured one), they need to have one soon. If they don't, then they lose both legitimacy and credibility. And when both credibility and legitimacy start going downhill, they almost never reverse course.

 

Interesting times...

 

Another death in the family?

 

I have a feeling it's-a-coming...

 

 

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I think that the Junta has to hold elections soon, and there are several reasons for that.

Once the constitution has been royally signed, election must be held after few bureaucratic steps. Even the laws regarding holding of election must be finished by certain period. IMHO, Prayut is under a lot of pressure by the establishment to hold the election. The poor economic is affecting them too and they also fear another round of chaos that is simmering at the grassroots level. Anyway, the junta has prepared adequately to lord over politics for a long time. 

2 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Once the constitution has been royally signed, election must be held after few bureaucratic steps. Even the laws regarding holding of election must be finished by certain period. IMHO, Prayut is under a lot of pressure by the establishment to hold the election. The poor economic is affecting them too and they also fear another round of chaos that is simmering at the grassroots level. Anyway, the junta has prepared adequately to lord over politics for a long time. 

I generally agree... but

 

I have seen some really remarkable bureaucratic maneuvers over the years. I am not saying that it will happen or that they will get away with it, but anyone who underestimates the ability of a high-level bureaucrat to weasel out of things is in trouble!

 

I also agree that Prayut is under pressure to hold an election, but I am not as sure if he has adequately prepared to lord over politics for a long time (see para above).

 

Prayut's current power is the ability to deliver stuff to other people. If/when he is out of the PM's chair, that ability is severely curtailed, and he has angered a large number of people... My guess is that he wants to be the proverbial power behind the throne, but wanting and doing are very different things.

 

Interesting times...

 

13 hours ago, baboon said:

I just don't know that they won't just stay put and really hammer in the nails of repression - they have been here for four years: Well why not five? And after five years, why not six..?

totally agree; the only real potential opposing force, the people,generally, are not yet organized (by intent of the military) to mobilize

If he really wanted popularity he should consider a new deck.

And, on the popularity front, I'd always put my money on the guy with brains and can think two or more thoughts, in between eating or ogling himself in the mirror. Prayut demonstrates, with each media show, that he simply cannot put more than one thought into an issue, without losing his temper. To him, the words ego and vanity are the ones that - he thinks - will gain him popularity.

 

And, whilst on the brain-power front, I reckon the army's seriously short-changed us with this guy. You'll have noticed, I'm sure, that he has an exceptionally big head, compared to body height - 10" of 69", or 14.5% , when the male norm is 8.6" of 69", or 12.5%. From those measurements, a simple bit of head-maths tells us that Prayut's head is an eye-watering 16% larger than the norm. What the hell goes on in all that extra space? . . . like I say, we was robbed.

 

OK, there was trouble that needed sorting in May, 2014 and that was hardly his fault. Maybe, there had to be a military takeover to stop all the nonsense . . . but why did the Thai Army see fit to put this numpty in charge. I keep thinking, "If only the RTA had got someone like General Sir Mike Jackson, fronting up the coup and maybe, if he thought it would help to restore order, give us all 15 minutes TV talk a month of his rich, golden tones." The job would have been sorted, well before the World Cup got going. Hands up those who remember GSM Jackson giving his appraisals of the N Ireland troubles?

555... You just can't say "trump" anymore like we used to!   555555555555