Price tag of Thai-Japanese high-speed train project is 420 billion baht

[webfact]

Price tag of Thai-Japanese high-speed train project is 420 billion baht

By Thai PBS

 

 

Investment cost of the Thai-Japanese high-speed train project from Bangkok to Chiang Mai was estimated at about 420 billion baht by the Japanese Transport Ministry.

 

Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said Tuesday (Dec 19) that his Japanese counterpart had proposed a report of the estimation of the investment cost of the high-speed train project at 420 billion baht for the railroad distance of 670 kilometres with altogether 12 stations.

 

The maximum speed of the train is 380 kph and it will take three and a half hours for the travelling between Bangkok and Chiang Mai and vice versa.

 

Full story: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/price-tag-thai-japanese-high-speed-train-project-420-billion-baht/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2017-12-20

[Eric Loh]

Project mooted in 2010 and would have cost 100B Baht. Fast forward and project now cost 420 B Baht; a four fold increase. Has material costs gone up so much in 7 years or just that the invisible costs have shoot up. I wonder the project can still attract private investors with the astronomical cost increase and its viability. 

[Cadbury]

Transport Minister Arkhom says that......... "as for the train fare, several factors had to be taken into consideration such as cost of living and competition with low cost airlines".

In other words who cares if the fast train project losses money just so long as the fares are competitive with the airlines and people can afford the tickets. That sounds like normal Thai ministerial economic "Business Plan" rationale.

The Japanese have costed the project which won't start until 2019 but already we have the Thais disregarding the costs and instead talking about the price of tickets based on external influences rather than the economics of the project. 

[canuckamuck]

59 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

Transport Minister Arkhom says that......... "as for the train fare, several factors had to be taken into consideration such as cost of living and competition with low cost airlines".

In other words who cares if the fast train project losses money just so long as the fares are competitive with the airlines and people can afford the tickets. That sounds like normal Thai ministerial economic "Business Plan" rationale.

The Japanese have costed the project which won't start until 2019 but already we have the Thais disregarding the costs and instead talking about the price of tickets based on external influences rather than the economics of the project. 

It's not about making a successful train route, it's about pieces of pie. Once it's built who cares. A very thin slice of 420 B is still quite filling.

And you can apply this philosophy to all of these mega-projects currently floating about.

Edited December 20, 2017 by canuckamuck

[Ossy]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Thai-Japanese high-speed train project is 420 billion baht

And that's just one way!

Edited December 20, 2017 by Ossy
Message clarity

[ChrisY1]

This is going to end up as another major fail!....it it actually ever gets going!

[hanuman2543]

In Germany they just opened a highspeed train connection betwen Munich and Berlin. It is about the same length. It took about 20 years to build it and it costs 10.000.000.000 EUR.  There are still plenty of technical problems  and Germany has vast experience with their own high speed trains. I am sure this project will cost much more and it will need decades before it will work reliable.

Edited December 20, 2017 by hanuman2543

[Emster23]

I think that works out to 62 million per kilometer, if calculation correct. Windows calculator doesn't have commas, easy to lose focus. "Hey Harry, ordered those jumbo brown envelops yet?"

[Ricardo]

The first section, across the flat land of Central Thailand, was estimated just a few days ago as costing 280 billion, or 737 million Baht per-km.

 

" Mr Arkhom said the first section is from Bangkok to Phitsanulok, covering a total distance of 380 kilometres with an investment cost of 280 billion baht. "

 

So the more-challenging 290-km (670km minus 380km) northern-section, to be built later on through the mountain-ranges between Phitsanulok and Chiang Mai, will only cost 140 billion  (420billion minus 280 billion)  or 483 million Baht per-km  ...  really ?

 

Something doesn't really sound quite right.

[Cadbury]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

The maximum speed of the train is 380 kph and it will take three and a half hours for the travelling between Bangkok and Chiang Mai

According to Wiki the track is being built for speeds up to 250kph.....not 380kph as claimed. Quite a large variation. Another source says 300kph. Which is correct?

If say it did travel at 380kph that would make it the second fastest train in the world. Nothing but the best for Thailand and all for 1000baht/ticket. The next interesting figure to know would be how many passengers?

High-Speed Corridor	Route	Speed (km/h)	Length (km)	Network	Projected Operation	Status
Bangkok-Phitsanulok HSR	Bangkok–Ayutthaya–Phitsanulok	250	384	Japan	2026 (Forecast)	Planned
Phitsanulok-Chiang Mai HSR	Phitsanulok–Uttaradit–Lampang–Chiang Mai	250	285	Japan	Unknown	Planning Stage

[Dave67]

380kph is misinformation or bullshit as I like to call it

 

UK Billion a  Million Million or US Billion 1 Thousand Million

[Dave67]

15 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

According to Wiki the track is being built for speeds up to 250kph.....not 380kph as claimed. Quite a large variation. Another source says 300kph. Which is correct?

If say it did travel at 380kph that would make it the second fastest train in the world. Nothing but the best for Thailand and all for 1000baht/ticket. The next interesting figure to know would be how many passengers?

High-Speed Corridor	Route	Speed (km/h)	Length (km)	Network	Projected Operation	Status
Bangkok-Phitsanulok HSR	Bangkok–Ayutthaya–Phitsanulok	250	384	Japan	2026 (Forecast)	Planned
Phitsanulok-Chiang Mai HSR	Phitsanulok–Uttaradit–Lampang–Chiang Mai	250	285	Japan	Unknown	Planning Stage

300kph is correct for Japanese system

 

[MaxYakov]

Is it going to be electric plug-in, solar powered, or will they cop-out and make it a hybrid power train? They have to consider climate change and the future of the heat-threatened polar bears.

Edited December 20, 2017 by MaxYakov

[Cadbury]

2 minutes ago, Dave67 said:

300kph is correct for Japanese system

 

Thank you for providing the correct information. The government cannot be relied upon to tell the truth.

So presumably it follows that the trip will take considerably longer than the quoted 3.5 hours @ 380kph.

[Dave67]

Just now, Cadbury said:

Thank you for providing the correct information. The government cannot be relied upon to tell the truth.

So presumably it follows that the trip will take considerably longer than the quoted 3.5 hours @ 380kph.

To be honest mate they've bullshitted about The line from China through Laos into Thailand supposedly High speed and now a freight line. High Speed is just hype 380kph , nonsense

[Ossy]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The maximum speed of the train is 380 kph and it will take three and a half hours

It's 683km from BKK to CM. If it takes 3.5hrs, that gives an average speed of only 195 kph, almost exactly half the train's alleged top speed. Don't tell me that the track is going to be so bendy and hilly that the bloody machine struggles to reach half-speed? Or maybe it has to keep stopping at those scary little overtaking loops, every 50km or so. If they get that timing slightly wrong, the road death toll may find it's got a new challenger.

[Dave67]

13 minutes ago, Ossy said:

It's 683km from BKK to CM. If it takes 3.5hrs, that gives an average speed of only 195 kph, almost exactly half the train's alleged top speed. Don't tell me that the track is going to be so bendy and hilly that the bloody machine struggles to reach half-speed? Or maybe it has to keep stopping at those scary little overtaking loops, every 50km or so. If they get that timing slightly wrong, the road death toll may find it's got a new challenger.

Good point didn't even try to work it out on a pedantic point no bends on the railway only curves

[hansnl]

5 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Project mooted in 2010 and would have cost 100B Baht. Fast forward and project now cost 420 B Baht; a four fold increase. Has material costs gone up so much in 7 years or just that the invisible costs have shoot up. I wonder the project can still attract private investors with the astronomical cost increase and its viability. 

The difference is that the 2010 estimate was a Chinese one, hence driven by strategic Chinese reasoning, and therefore mightily undervalued.

 

[ratcatcher]

20 minutes ago, Ossy said:

Or maybe it has to keep stopping at those scary little overtaking loops, every 50km or so

Can we assume regarding this construction project, it will be double track for the entire distance, thus no sidings or passing tracks as at present?

Perhaps Dave67, one of our resident RR experts, can add some clarification since newspaper reporters rarely get the true facts correct. In the countries with a comprehensive HST system joining major cities, as in France, Germany, China and Japan , there is a reason for fast trains. Just how important is the lovely touristy city of Chiang Mai in this context.? Does the end justify the means?

Malaysia has HST between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, two major centres. Bangkok is in a league of its own.

[Dave67]

11 minutes ago, ratcatcher said:

Can we assume regarding this construction project, it will be double track for the entire distance, thus no sidings or passing tracks as at present?

Perhaps Dave67, one of our resident RR experts, can add some clarification since newspaper reporters rarely get the true facts correct. In the countries with a comprehensive HST system joining major cities, as in France, Germany, China and Japan , there is a reason for fast trains. Just how important is the lovely touristy city of Chiang Mai in this context.? Does the end justify the means?

Malaysia has HST between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, two major centres. Bangkok is in a league of its own.

Yeah will be double track no passing loop you may have Station loops Track 3 and 4 that goes to an outside platform to let a through train  pass while the other train has stopped in the platform

Edited December 20, 2017 by Dave67

[lemonjelly]

While the rest of the rail network and rolling stock is falling to pieces.....


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[Dave67]

1 minute ago, lemonjelly said:

While the rest of the rail network and rolling stock is falling to pieces.....


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

Exactly like upgrading from a scooter to an F1 car

[Dave67]

14 minutes ago, ratcatcher said:

Can we assume regarding this construction project, it will be double track for the entire distance, thus no sidings or passing tracks as at present?

Perhaps Dave67, one of our resident RR experts, can add some clarification since newspaper reporters rarely get the true facts correct. In the countries with a comprehensive HST system joining major cities, as in France, Germany, China and Japan , there is a reason for fast trains. Just how important is the lovely touristy city of Chiang Mai in this context.? Does the end justify the means?

Malaysia has HST between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, two major centres. Bangkok is in a league of its own.

Yeah agree about Chiang Mai ect it's not practical, As you mention perfectly good well built narrow gauge railway from Pedang Basar to KL Track built for 180KPH average line speed 160kph that what Thailand should be looking at Think this will be off the agenda when the government is changed, The timing of the tender in 1 year speaks volume of the Japenese confidence in Thailand current government

[Reigntax]

51 minutes ago, Ossy said:

It's 683km from BKK to CM. If it takes 3.5hrs, that gives an average speed of only 195 kph, almost exactly half the train's alleged top speed. Don't tell me that the track is going to be so bendy and hilly that the bloody machine struggles to reach half-speed? Or maybe it has to keep stopping at those scary little overtaking loops, every 50km or so. If they get that timing slightly wrong, the road death toll may find it's got a new challenger.

 

It allows for stops and acceleration and deacceleration distances. But don't worry too much as it will never get anywhere near the design top speed. Would anyone want to travel at 300kmph in something maintained by Thai authorities?. I doubt it!

[Dave67]

An example of the Japenese system used in Doha

[Dave67]

[gunderhill]

Pah, just get on a plane, safer, faster, cheaper.

[Ossy]

31 minutes ago, ratcatcher said:

Can we assume regarding this construction project, it will be double track for the entire distance, thus no sidings or passing tracks as at present?

Perhaps Dave67, one of our resident RR experts, can add some clarification since newspaper reporters rarely get the true facts correct. In the countries with a comprehensive HST system joining major cities, as in France, Germany, China and Japan , there is a reason for fast trains. Just how important is the lovely touristy city of Chiang Mai in this context.? Does the end justify the means?

Malaysia has HST between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, two major centres. Bangkok is in a league of its own.

Sorry if I worried you for a mo, at the thought of 300 kph passing places. Sometimes my tongue gets too stuck in my cheek. But it's an intriguing thought, though, especially in light of budget soarings since 2010 . . . it wouldn't HALF keep the costs down!

[Sydebolle]

I rather wait until the Army opens the klong in which I can travel by one of the three submarines from Bangkok to Chiang Mai ...... 

[Eric Loh]

38 minutes ago, hansnl said:

The difference is that the 2010 estimate was a Chinese one, hence driven by strategic Chinese reasoning, and therefore mightily undervalued.

 

Not sure whether the China HST accident that killed 35 people was the trigger as to why the Thailand Ministry of Transport decided to pivot to Japan. Still it was 230 B Baht for the project when Japan proposed in 2011. Referring to the accident, the Thailand counterpart did proudly said that it could not happen in Thailand as they have better safety standard. That's worth a chuckle.