Dan747 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Thailand is intervening to keep the baht from appreciating more–both versus the dollar, and versus a basket–at far too weak a level given the size of Thailand’s external surplus . Why is it doing what it's doing at the moment. Theory was that the baht would weaken with all the political upheaval, it's getting stronger with a Military Government in charge-why? Your thoughts please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simoh1490 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Increased exports, the invoices for which get paid in foreign currency and then exchanged for Baht, making the baht stronger. Ditto the above tourist's receipts, it's peak tourist season currently. Thailand is intervening to try and keep the lid on the Baht in order to help stimulate exports (trying to make them cheaper). Note: political upheaval in Thailand has historically had very little impact on the value of the Baht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdrokit Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 (edited) Trump hasn't helped. Dollar been falling since this comment. http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/12/news/economy/us-dollar-donald-trump-wsj/index.html Edited January 6, 2018 by Rdrokit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simoh1490 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, Rdrokit said: Trump hasn't helped. Dollar been falling since this comment. http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/12/news/economy/us-dollar-donald-trump-wsj/index.html Even before then, the pair started the year at 35.73 and is now currently at around 32.2, a 10% difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUS Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 It 5 hours ago, simoh1490 said: Increased exports, the invoices for which get paid in foreign currency and then exchanged for Baht, making the baht stronger. Ditto the above tourist's receipts, it's peak tourist season currently. Thailand is intervening to try and keep the lid on the Baht in order to help stimulate exports (trying to make them cheaper). Note: political upheaval in Thailand has historically had very little impact on the value of the Baht. Spot on! As well as, what goes up, comes down, goes up , comes down ... http://xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=5Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morrobay Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 As usual most Asian currencies weaken as baht strengthens ?? https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/forex/most-asian-currencies-fall-as-dollar-rebounds-baht-rupiah-rise/articleshow/62363375.cms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdrokit Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Not against the baht. Still at 32.18 and the 3 month forecast is not good. https://www.ratesfx.com/predictions/pred-thb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chicowoodduck Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 12:00 PM, simoh1490 said: Even before then, the pair started the year at 35.73 and is now currently at around 32.2, a 10% difference. Oops, was at 32.07 last night....in a free fall....???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jesimps Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Thank your lucky stars you don't get paid in GB pounds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simoh1490 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 (edited) 20 minutes ago, chicowoodduck said: Oops, was at 32.07 last night....in a free fall....???? What exactly is it that you think is in freefall because it certainly isn't the Baht, USD is however getting a little bit weaker according to the Dollar Index: https://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-streaming-chart And anyway, that sort of movement isn't freefall, it's pretty much normal intraday stuff. https://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-streaming-chart Edited January 8, 2018 by simoh1490 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9KPhalak Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I would think that the current government does offer some degree of stability, thus keeping the baht strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OJAS Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 11:41 AM, simoh1490 said: Note: political upheaval in Thailand has historically had very little impact on the value of the Baht. If anything it has caused the THB's value to soar - as I recall happening during the PAD airport occupations in 2008 for instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simoh1490 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, OJAS said: If anything it has caused the THB's value to soar - as I recall happening during the PAD airport occupations in 2008 for instance. When there were snipers on Silom it dipped a bit but not much, most people were quite amazed as I recall. But while all of that was going on, foreign tourists were still sunning themselves in Phuket and riding elephants in Chiang Mai and the planes/ships were still departing fully laden with exports.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OJAS Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, simoh1490 said: When there were snipers on Silom it dipped a bit but not much, most people were quite amazed as I recall. But while all of that was going on, foreign tourists were still sunning themselves in Phuket and riding elephants in Chiang Mai and the planes/ships were still departing fully laden with exports.. And upon reflection the apparent dramatic increase in the THB's value in 2008 might have had more to do with the sub-prime crisis in the USA and UK around that time. So in real terms the effects of political unrest here in recent times were probably neutral as you have said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winkburn Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 11:51 AM, Rdrokit said: Trump hasn't helped. Dollar been falling since this comment. http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/12/news/economy/us-dollar-donald-trump-wsj/index.html Yes thats right it must be the Dons fault silly us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winkburn Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 11:51 AM, Rdrokit said: Trump hasn't helped. Dollar been falling since this comment. http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/12/news/economy/us-dollar-donald-trump-wsj/index.html Been falling long before that comment but lets blame the donald because cnn said so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeavyHands Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Big infrastructure spending , strong exports, tourism rising. Some "experts" predicting 10% growth next year. Weak USD. More this than conspiracy theories of Generals protecting their stashes. IMO only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natway09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The economy in Thailand is in pretty good shape in spite of the political arena. Apart from tourism & rice exports have a look at the industries in Rayong & surrounding areas. It is business as usual with the major banks in good shape as well. The USA & Europe have a lot more issues that affect exchange than Thailand. Interesting to note that the Baht has strengthened against other ASEAN countries which should tell you something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulic Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 As I understand it Thailand has a huge current account surplus. Too many tourists spending too much money in Thailand. That drives the baht up. Thailand needs to spend more on foreign submarines and high-speed trains to bring down the surplus. More tanks, fighter jets, whatever toys the military wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaidream Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Always an interesting conversation- the Us economy is strong- stock market soaring; unemployment very low. Speculation is that big money is searching for high returns overseas and Thailand is ripe. Expect the dollar to get very strong once interest rates stat upward and repatriation of billions come back due to the tax cut and financing the US infrastructure program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamini Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Because we have a stable government. No riots. Safety, and increasing number of tourists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thailand49 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 There are some who claim 100% steadfast it can't be any manipulate but I believe in the other school of thought. Lately, I have been reading articles about their exports numbers with the weaken of the dollar their export number are still going up meaning to the Thai even with the appreciation people still want their product. Even the Thai experts debate between themselves and agree to disagree? Articles that the bank should step in makes me think if can't manipulate why step in/ Then just this weekend a article said U.S. is thinking about putting Korea and Thailand on the currency manipulation list? That the trade deficit gets to a certain number you get place on the list. Unprofessional but I now will see the baht weaken back to 34? That is my two cents.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUS Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 34 minutes ago, thailand49 said: Then just this weekend a article said U.S. is thinking about putting Korea and Thailand on the currency manipulation list? That the trade deficit gets to a certain number you get place on the list. Unprofessional but I now will see the baht weaken back to 34? Hmmm.... if the Thai Baht depreciated against the USD then it would potentially increase the deficit even further with Thai products becoming even cheaper, wouldn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franko666 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 On 06/01/2018 at 2:51 PM, Rdrokit said: Trump hasn't helped. Dollar been falling since this comment. http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/12/news/economy/us-dollar-donald-trump-wsj/index.html CNN really!!!! Masters of fake news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LALes Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Its a race to the bottom for the currencies of all exporting nations. In the new global economy, you want the most appealing (cheapest) exports. This has been going on long before Trump, but the stable genius will just continue the currency wars with statements like he issued against Korea and Thailand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUS Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Franko666 said: CNN really!!!! Masters of fake news. Oh dear, oh dear! Trump repeatedly uttered that he doesn´t want a strong dollar because he wants to (further) increase the global competitiveness of US exporters and, hence, wants to decrease the chronic trade deficit. Nothing to do with CNN etc. It always makes me laugh when the Trump fan boys deride EVERYTHING as fake news if it doesn´t say that Trump is a hero. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzannegoh Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, Winkburn said: Been falling long before that comment but lets blame the donald because cnn said so It isn't about placing blame... Well it might be for some, but it's not a slur against Trump to say that he wants the dollar to weaken. And Thailand, along with India and China, are on the list of countries that the US has threatened to label as "currency manipulators" if they don't allow their currencies to strengthen versus the dollar.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/india-thailand-risk-fx-manipulator-watchlist-as-reserves-swell Edited January 8, 2018 by suzannegoh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franko666 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, DUS said: Oh dear, oh dear! Trump repeatedly uttered that he doesn´t want a strong dollar because he wants to (further) increase the global competitiveness of US exporters and, hence, wants to decrease the chronic trade deficit. Nothing to do with CNN etc. It always makes me laugh when the Trump fan boys deride EVERYTHING as fake news if it doesn´t say that Trump is a hero. LOL I think a better source of information may have been helpful for your credibility. Nothing wrong with a low currency unless you import goods or live or travel overseas. Looks like you are in for a rough ride fella! Reality chart attached, Trump or no Trump, currency much like the weather changes constantly, the trick is to make it work for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franko666 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, suzannegoh said: It isn't about placing blame... Well it might be for some, but it's not a slur against Trump to say that he wants the dollar to weaken. And Thailand, along with India and China, are on the list of countries that the US has threatened to label as "currency manipulators" if they don't allow their currencies to strengthen versus the dollar.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/india-thailand-risk-fx-manipulator-watchlist-as-reserves-swell True, and a floating currency without intervention or hyperbole will always reflect its real value the market. But I'm not so sure there are many pure currencies around, however the mentioned currencies are far from where they should be in the global market place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUS Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, Franko666 said: I think a better source of information may have been helpful for your credibility. Nothing wrong with a low currency unless you import goods or live or travel overseas. Looks like you are in for a rough ride fella! Reality chart attached, Trump or no Trump, currency much like the weather changes constantly, the trick is to make it work for you. Hmm, where did I see this chart before... hmmm, ah, I posted the link to it in #5 of this thread. Good! The rest of your post, however, doesn´t make any sense at all. But thanks for quoting me, anyway. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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