rooster59 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Undercurrents of instability despite Pheu Thai ‘loyalty pledge’ By ATTAYUTH BOOTSRIPOOM THE NATION Prayuth Siripanit leads Pheu Thai Party ex-MPs to provide well wishing at the party's headquarters on Wednesday THE VISIT on Wednesday by local politicians to Pheu Thai Party’s headquarters was graced by sweet New Year blessings and certainly wishes for the upcoming election. Some former MPs went to bless Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, one of the party’s active key figures and, one of the leading candidates to be chosen party leader for the next election. On the same day, former PM Chavalit Yongchaiyudh also declared his support for the party when Pheu Thai politicians paid him a visit. But when Prayuth Siripanit led the Northeast-based ex-MPs to pledge “life-long loyalty”, the third incarnation of the Thaksin Shinawatra-founded party was assured of the support of Isaan MPs ahead of the election. Prayuth is a political heavyweight – a veteran politician, a former minister, and a key campaigner behind drafting the notorious blanket amnesty bill that triggered the fall of the Yingluck Shinawatra government. The amnesty fiasco might erode his credibility but he continues to maintain control over his stronghold and hence was able to lead such a pledge of loyalty. But to what extent will these Isaan MPs stay with the most obstructed party under the junta, which still bans political gatherings and obliges parties to “update” their membership list in a way much seen as a requirement to reset? Going with a military-leaning end of the spectrum becomes an undeniably good choice for political survival. The Sasomsap clan and the Palangchon group have the potential to detach from the Pheu Thai Party, let alone Bhumjaithai, Chart Thai Pattana and the Machima blocs. Prayuth may hold a tight grip on the Isaan MPs group, Pheu Thai Party’s strongest area, but the emergence of internal conflicts would likely shake the party’s regional stability. Many Pheu Thai members, particularly key red-shirt figures, want to replace Prayuth in order to hold power in such an influential region once the election process is underway. When a party can nominate only one candidate per constituency, local ex-MPs and red shirts would have to compete at their best to gain the seats. Each side has their own sense of belonging. The red-shirt leaders think that they have done their job in keeping up with the masses against the military coup. The ex-MPs, meanwhile, can still participate in community projects and activities although barred from formal political movements. This is only the beginning of internal Pheu Thai conflict in its largest stronghold – even when the promised election remains murky to all. The moves of Prayuth, Sudarat or Chavalit could hint at the party’s path. Lifelong loyalty, though sweet, is merely another political discourse and marks the beginning of political uncertainty ahead of the election. Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30336131 -- © Copyright The Nation 2018-01-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robblok Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I wonder how many will keep loyal knowing their chances to be in the next government are slim and by jumping ship they could secure a seat in government and make money again. Will be interesting to see how things turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannork Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, robblok said: I wonder how many will keep loyal knowing their chances to be in the next government are slim and by jumping ship they could secure a seat in government and make money again. Will be interesting to see how things turn out. Dont forget after Bhumjaithai had broken away and joined the Democrats to form a government in 2008 they got hammered at the 2011 election, winning only 34 seats. Issan people and northerners remember those who betray PheuaThai. No doubt those same MPs wil bear that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robblok Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, bannork said: Dont forget after Bhumjaithai had broken away and joined the Democrats to form a government in 2008 they got hammered at the 2011 election, winning only 34 seats. Issan people and northerners remember those who betray PheuaThai. No doubt those same MPs wil bear that in mind. Even if those who break away get hammered.. they still have 4 years in goverment to get money. What good is it to spend all that money to control your people and not being able to get your money back. The PTP has been out of power for a while and it looks that without support of an other party they will not get into power again. So that would mean 8 years of no income for those guys... (the 4 that passed and the 4 that follow). With income I mean income from being in power (corruption) not the salary from Thaksin. I think it will be pretty tempting for them. Not that I want an army party to be in power but I think its pretty tempting. I doubt that this year given the laws the PTP could really form a government. A lot will depend on money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannork Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, robblok said: Even if those who break away get hammered.. they still have 4 years in goverment to get money. What good is it to spend all that money to control your people and not being able to get your money back. The PTP has been out of power for a while and it looks that without support of an other party they will not get into power again. So that would mean 8 years of no income for those guys... (the 4 that passed and the 4 that follow). With income I mean income from being in power (corruption) not the salary from Thaksin. I think it will be pretty tempting for them. Not that I want an army party to be in power but I think its pretty tempting. I doubt that this year given the laws the PTP could really form a government. A lot will depend on money. They won't be elected as MPs if they break away from PT. The people will not elect them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweatalot Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Lifelong loyalty to a party is an oxymoron to democracy. They are showing their true face again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robblok Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 19 minutes ago, bannork said: They won't be elected as MPs if they break away from PT. The people will not elect them. Yes but if they break away after the election.. or is that impossible ? Its what the Bhumjaithai did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunderhill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I would think the best thing the electorate could do when voting (if) it ever occurs is 100% abstain striking thru the ballot papers sending a clear message to the Junta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billd766 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, bannork said: They won't be elected as MP's if they break away from PT. The people will not elect them. The people will either vote for the choice given out by the PTP or strangely enough they can vote for somebody else or even spoil the ballot paper. It is not necessarily a command from above that they must ONLY vote for the person who is chosen for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannork Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 hours ago, robblok said: Yes but if they break away after the election.. or is that impossible ? Its what the Bhumjaithai did. Bhumjaithai didnt break away after an election. They broke away after their party PPP was dissolved by the courts leaving them free to join its successor Pheua Thai or defect as some MPS did to join Abhisit. The people who had voted for those MPs s memebers of PPP, Thaksin's party, were naturally aggrieved and punished Bhumjaithai at the next election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannork Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, billd766 said: The people will either vote for the choice given out by the PTP or strangely enough they can vote for somebody else or even spoil the ballot paper. It is not necessarily a command from above that they must ONLY vote for the person who is chosen for them. Thaksin has won the hearts of the north-east, most of the north and the poor in urban areas. I can't stand the guy but to think those voters won't vote for his next party is to believe in fairies. Will he give up politics? I doubt it. He has nothing to lose and probably still harbours hopes of returning one day. Voting figures in 2001 Party Votes % Seats List Const Total Thai Rak Thai 11,634,495 40.6 48 200 248 Democrat Party 7,610,789 26.6 31 97 128 New Aspiration Party 2,008,945 07.0 8 28 36 National Development Party 1,755,476 06.1 7 22 29 Thai Nation Party 1,523,807 05.3 6 35 41 Liberal Integrity Party 0 14 14 Citizen's Party 0 2 2 Social Action Party 0 1 1 Thai Motherland Party 0 1 1 Total 28,629,202 100 400 500 Voting percentages in 2005 election: Thai Loves Thais Party (Phak Thai Rak Thai) 60.7375% Democrat Party (Phak Prachatipat)18.396% Election 2011 Parties Constituency Proportional TOTAL Votes % Seats Votes % Seats Seats % Pheu Thai 12,211,604 44.3 204 15,744,190 48.41 61 265 53.0% Democrat 8,907,140 32.3 115 11,433,762 35.15 44 159 31.8% Bhumjaithai 3,123,567 11.3 29 1,281,577 3.94 5 34 6.8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorecard Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 hours ago, bannork said: They won't be elected as MPs if they break away from PT. The people will not elect them. That may perhaps be true, but exactly why? Is it because of the personalities and their longer-term solid balanced development manifesto? Or would it be because of possible loss of immediate handouts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannork Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, scorecard said: That may perhaps be true, but exactly why? Is it because of the personalities and their longer-term solid balanced development manifesto? Or would it be because of possible loss of immediate handouts? Loyalty to the party that has offered the most benefits to them in terms of policies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorecard Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, bannork said: Loyalty to the party that has offered the most benefits to them in terms of policies. And no longer-term real development, better education, more higher paid job opportunities, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannork Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, scorecard said: And no longer-term real development, better education, more higher paid job opportunities, etc. I'm not defending Thaksin's policies, I'm just pointing out he has won the hearts of most working classThais and it will be difficult for any other party to win those hearts unless they follow the same populist policies. Something Prayuth seems to be doing now with his large budget handouts and dependency on the Agriculture Ministry to raise the price of crops. Abhisit refuses to resign as party leader in spite of losing successive elections and boycotting others. Suthep is supporting Prayuth to be PM again, splitting the party further. I can't see any hope in the Democrats, especially with the death of Dr Surin, the one charismatic figure they had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ricardo Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Interesting article and thread. I think the key factor will be who Thaksin picks as leader, going into the election, and will it be another family-member or another loyal-outsider like Samak, or someone completely different ? Negotiations are clearly now underway, hence the jockeying for position & declarations of loyalty, described in the OP. Also whether he will continue to fund the party, given that the military (and their backers, whoever they really are) are clearly determined not to permit his return, he may be getting tired of it all. I don't have any answers, but look forward to watching what goes on, this year. And hope that it stays peaceful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seajae Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 correct me if I am wrong but didnt they change the law so that thaksin cant run a party or form one, if thats the case then he will get no say in what they do or be paying them, ptp/the reds will have to do it all themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakeupplease Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The boys come out to play it must be a red day, the rest of us should sod off down the beach and leave them to it, plonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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