Junta is running out of time

[webfact]

EDITORIAL

Junta is running out of time

By The Nation

 

The watch scandal and hidden survey results are darkening Prayut’s political future
 

The National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) has been compromised by its rector’s decision to not release the results of a recent public opinion survey regarding Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan’s possession of two dozen luxury watches.

 

Doubt has been widespread about Prawit’s explanation that the watches – which he certainly couldn’t afford on his salary – were merely borrowed from wealthy friends. But we’d need a public opinion poll to gauge just how deep the doubt runs.

 

Concern is rife that the military-led government is increasingly trying to intimidate outspoken academics, a list now including Arnond Sakworawich, who conducted the wristwatch survey for Nida. The ruling junta will have to act decisively to prevent the untimely scandal over the timepieces from dashing Prayut Chan-o-cha’s chances of staying on as prime minister after the next election. The scandal has undermined the junta’s key rationale for staging the May 2014 coup – to stop corruption in government – and threatens to further tarnish its legacy. 

 

Prayut has insisted that the government did not block Nida from publishing the poll results, and that may be true. But it does not alter the fact that, because of military rule, Nida and other major polling institutes – Suan Dusit and Bangkok Poll – have been censoring their own work, thus suffering an erosion of credibility. The latest incident has seen Arnond, Nida’s poll director, step down in protest.

 

It was Nida’s rector, Pradit Wanarat, who made the call not to publish the survey findings, arguing that doing so could in itself influence public opinion on the issue before the National Anti-Corruption Commission completes its inquiry into the matter. Pradit, it should be noted, is also a member of the junta-appointed National Legislative Assembly. 

 

Prayut has meanwhile revived his usual defence, saying challenges to his administration’s credibility and integrity could signify a threat to national stability. “What does [Arnond’s resignation] have to do with me?” he asked reporters. “I just saw the news on social media. And he said he hadn’t been forced out or anything. People say whatever they want and the media just amplifies it, so the country will never be at peace.” Perhaps if the junta chief stopped equating national stability with his personal political stability, Thailand would feel more at peace. 

 

Survey results are inherently neutral, but they’ll always leave someone feeling uncomfortable – whoever is shown to be in the minority. Do we then withhold the results to avoid offending the minority? 

 

Questions of freedom of thought aside, the junta must now address this latest crisis of confidence. Prayut will have to reconsider his pledge to keep Prawit in the Cabinet. Prawit was the architecture of the 2014 coup and remains Prayut’s direct link to the Army, whose support the retired general will need if he’s to serve as a full-fledged politician.

 

For now, Prayut is sticking to his principles, closing ranks and defending Prawit, as if demonstrating some sort of military code of honour. There are, however, greater principles at stake. Running a government and leading a country is very different from running the military. This latest scandal represents another moment of truth for the junta chief and his administration. He has yet to pass the test. 

 

Perhaps it would be best if he abandoned ambitions for the future and focused on the now – restoring honour and integrity to the junta before leaving politics for good. 

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30337569

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-01-31

[wakeupplease]

Please stop talking of time as they can go and buy another watch with different time on it tomorrow with the money you gave them?

[ChidlomDweller]

39 minutes ago, webfact said:

It was Nida’s rector, Pradit Wanarat, who made the call not to publish the survey findings, arguing that doing so could in itself influence public opinion on the issue before the National Anti-Corruption Commission completes its inquiry into the matter.

Indeed.  Why not just give the NACC a year or 20 to look into the matter first?

[Samui Bodoh]

While the details are not clear at the moment, the future of Thailand relatively straightforward.

 

1. The Junta, either by cancelling elections or by rigging them to the point of being meaningless, will lead Thailand down the path that Burma/Myanmar took; a military-dominated, stale, stultified society that goes into a state of either slow or rapid decline.
2. The Junta is replaced by a civilian government which can begin the process of cleaning out the excesses of military rule and putting Thailand back on a path of Democracy and development for the future. It is unlikely that it would be able to catch up to Vietnam considering the time already lost, but it might be able to stay ahead of its neighbours.
3. Thailand stays in this 'netherworld' until there is some great event that defines the future, examples being the events of '73 or '92. This is the great unknown; after an era-defining moment, which way would Thailand turn?

My best guess is number three.

 

The first scenario is unlikely based on a cursory look at recent Thai history; three times this century alone Thais have taken to the streets and changed their government. I can think of no reason why they wouldn't (sooner or later) do so again.

 

The second scenario seems unlikely at the moment as the military seems to believe that it can retain power.

 

The third scenario is the one that is a bit worrisome due to all the unknowns. Most/all of us on TVF live here and/or spend long periods here, so we have seen the Thai characteristic of calmness, calmness, calmness then the (proverbial) 'explosion'. Should things get to the point of the metaphorical 'explosion', who knows what will happen? That unknown is the scary thing. 

 

As the old Chinese curse says, "May you live in interesting times".

 

[rkidlad]

I see the PM has not set any date and has simply asked for more time. How can you set a date for November (We know that was BS time buying) but now he doesn’t know when? And you’ve got another minister saying “it’s only 90 days!” My maths isn’t great, but shouldn’t the date be around the middle of February? 

 

I said it would get to a point where the excuses would run out and he’d have to be more honest. It’s clearer more than ever that he won’t just leave. He won’t even fire his deputy who’s been caught bang to rights. His ego obviously couldn’t handle being whooped at any free and fair election. 

 

I think he will play the sympathy card at first. “Give me time as I work tirelessly for you”. That will dismissed instantly by most, and then.......who knows then. Desperate times call for desperate measures. 

Edited January 30, 2018 by rkidlad

[altcar bob]

 

The population of Thailand amazes me, one step away from absolute poverty,yet they still take it ,.  An uprising maybe in the offing,certainly something needs doing to wake them up

[Jeremy50]

A country populated by sheep, run by wolves, owned by pigs.

[altcar bob]

Just now, Jeremy50 said:

A country populated by sheep, run by wolves, owned by pigs.

lol

[yellowboat]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Perhaps if the junta chief stopped equating national stability with his personal political stability, Thailand would feel more at peace. 

For a man who has all the guns, he does a lot of hand wringing, complaining, whining and denying. 

 

Nothing can stop the man with the right mental attitude from achieving his goal; nothing on earth can help the man with the wrong mental attitude. Thomas Jefferson

 

Edited January 31, 2018 by yellowboat

[Emster23]

Running out of time? Maybe "borrow" another watch from rich "friends"? Clock just needs another wind up

[Colabamumbai]

Maybee time is not of the essence.

[SABloke]

2 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

While the details are not clear at the moment, the future of Thailand relatively straightforward.

 

1. The Junta, either by cancelling elections or by rigging them to the point of being meaningless, will lead Thailand down the path that Burma/Myanmar took; a military-dominated, stale, stultified society that goes into a state of either slow or rapid decline.
2. The Junta is replaced by a civilian government which can begin the process of cleaning out the excesses of military rule and putting Thailand back on a path of Democracy and development for the future. It is unlikely that it would be able to catch up to Vietnam considering the time already lost, but it might be able to stay ahead of its neighbours.
3. Thailand stays in this 'netherworld' until there is some great event that defines the future, examples being the events of '73 or '92. This is the great unknown; after an era-defining moment, which way would Thailand turn?

My best guess is number three.

 

The first scenario is unlikely based on a cursory look at recent Thai history; three times this century alone Thais have taken to the streets and changed their government. I can think of no reason why they wouldn't (sooner or later) do so again.

 

The second scenario seems unlikely at the moment as the military seems to believe that it can retain power.

 

The third scenario is the one that is a bit worrisome due to all the unknowns. Most/all of us on TVF live here and/or spend long periods here, so we have seen the Thai characteristic of calmness, calmness, calmness then the (proverbial) 'explosion'. Should things get to the point of the metaphorical 'explosion', who knows what will happen? That unknown is the scary thing. 

 

As the old Chinese curse says, "May you live in interesting times".

 

Interesting post, but please leave Vietnam out of it. Yes, it's current economic growth is faster than Thailand, but it's GDP per capita (nominal & ppp) is a third of Thailands. Vietnam is catching up to Thailand and has some way to go yet OR do you honestly believe that world socio economic conditions just repeat from 2018 ad nauseum? Nothing bad will ever happen in Vietnam, nothing positive will ever happen in Thailand? PM me the lotto numbers for tomorrow please. 

[chainarong]

The doomsday clock is at 2 min to midnite where is Prayut's?

[sammieuk1]

I would suspect being popular is very low on the list of the juntas mantra ultimately its the guns that talk the loudest and the pockets the fullest are the priority's in age old  dived and conquer fashion. 

[Eric Loh]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

For now, Prayut is sticking to his principles, closing ranks and defending Prawit, as if demonstrating some sort of military code of honour.

Biggest mistake of his life. Will be patience watching the junta wheels fall apart. 

[mtls2005]

More "messages" being sent, from the "new owner". Interesting.

 

 

[jerojero]

Not running out of time. Has delayed election year after year, what's another 5 or 10 years delay. Stay tuned. It will happen.

[Enoon]

9 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

While the details are not clear at the moment, the future of Thailand relatively straightforward.

 

 

 

 

The future is always straightforward when one dismisses the unknown, the unimaginable and (most of all in the case of Thailand) while one ignores the unspeakable.

 

"This is how one pictures the angel of history. His face is turned toward the past. Where we perceive a chain of events, he sees one single catastrophe which keeps piling wreckage upon wreckage and hurls it in front of his feet. The angel would like to stay, awaken the dead, and make whole what has been smashed. But a storm is blowing from Paradise; it has got caught in his wings with such violence that the angel can no longer close them. The storm irresistibly propels him into the future to which his back is turned, while the pile of debris before him grows skyward "

 

Walter Benjamin

 

 

[YetAnother]

11 hours ago, webfact said:

Running a government and leading a country is very different from running the military.

finally, someone came out and concisely said it

[Colabamumbai]

Maybe  appropriate for the U.S. also at this  time.

[Happyman58]

22 hours ago, Jeremy50 said:

A country populated by sheep, run by wolves, owned by pigs.

That sums it up in a nutshell