Britons ever more deeply divided over Brexit, research finds

[webfact]

Britons ever more deeply divided over Brexit, research finds

By Elisabeth O'Leary

 

FILE PHOTO - EU and Union flags fly above Parliament Square during a Unite for Europe march, in central London, Britain March 25, 2017. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls/File Photo

 

LONDON (Reuters) - The social divide revealed by Britain's 2016 vote to leave the European Union is not only here to stay but deepening, according to academic research published on Wednesday.

 

Think tank The UK in a Changing Europe said Britons were unlikely to change their minds about leaving the EU, despite the political and economic uncertainty it has brought, because attitudes are becoming more entrenched.

 

"The (Brexit) referendum highlighted fundamental divisions in British society and superimposed a leave-remain distinction over them. This has the potential to profoundly disrupt our politics in the years to come," said Anand Menon, the think tank's director.

 

Britain is negotiating a deal with the EU which will shape future trade relations, breaking with the bloc after four decades, but the process is complicated by the divisions within parties, society and the government itself.

 

Menon said the research, based on a series of polls over the 18-month period since Britain voted to leave the European Union, showed 35 percent of people self-identify as "Leavers" and 40 percent as "Remainers".

 

Research also found that both sides had a tendency to interpret and recall information in a way that confirmed their pre-existing beliefs which also added to the deepening of the impact of the vote.

 

The differences showed fragmentation was more determined by age groups and location than by economic class.

 

Polls have shown increasing support for a second vote on whether or not to leave the European Union once the terms of departure are known, but such a vote would not necessarily provide a different result, a poll by ICM for the Guardian newspaper indicated last week.

 

The report also showed that age was a better pointer to how Britons voted than employment. Around 73 percent of 18 to 24-year-olds voted to stay in the EU, but turnout among that group was lower than among older voters.

 

"British Election Study surveys have suggested that, in order to have overturned the result, a startling 97 percent of under-45s would have had to make it to the ballot box, as opposed to the 65 percent who actually voted," the report said.

 

The difference between generations became even more pronounced in the 2017 general election, when the largest gap in how different generations voted was measured in Britain.

 

The British Election Study has been conducted by academics at every general election since 1964 and looks at why people vote, and why they vote the way they do.

 

(Editing by Stephen Addison)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-01-31

[Topdoc]

We recently sent 2 packages to Europe (The Netherlands) via courier from Thailand. The value of each package was €60. On arrival, the customer was slapped with european customs taxes and duties of €61 for each package i.e MORE THAN 100% TAX.

 

[Laughing Gravy]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Think tank The UK in a Changing Europe said Britons were unlikely to change their minds about leaving the EU, despite the political and economic uncertainty it has brought, because attitudes are becoming more entrenched

Yes agree more people would vote leave after knowing project fear was wrong, the EU and the way they have behaved and want to punish people and in general people are more astute to what the EU was all about.

 

It seems no coincidence that we are getting all these 'so called' reports, leaked documents trying to keep the UK people in the EU and also frightening them into the project fear brigades rhetoric. More and more people I have spoken too who voted remain are seeing just what the EU are like and just want the politicians to get on with it. Yes there is a divide been driven by those desperate to keep the UK bankrolling the others in the EU.

[anon7867763]

38 minutes ago, Topdoc said:

We recently sent 2 packages to Europe (The Netherlands) via courier from Thailand. The value of each package was €60. On arrival, the customer was slapped with european customs taxes and duties of €61 for each package i.e MORE THAN 100% TAX.

 

It should have been aout a 15 euro fee for passing the customs and about 15 euros Dutch VAT per package but what the hell has this got to do with Brexit ?

Edited January 31, 2018 by johnsnapo

[ilostmypassword]

41 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Yes agree more people would vote leave after knowing project fear was wrong, the EU and the way they have behaved and want to punish people and in general people are more astute to what the EU was all about.

 

It seems no coincidence that we are getting all these 'so called' reports, leaked documents trying to keep the UK people in the EU and also frightening them into the project fear brigades rhetoric. More and more people I have spoken too who voted remain are seeing just what the EU are like and just want the politicians to get on with it. Yes there is a divide been driven by those desperate to keep the UK bankrolling the others in the EU.

Believe it or not, you're saying it doesn't make it so. When speaking for tohers, you might consider consulting something other than your own beliefs.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-vote/half-of-britons-support-a-second-vote-on-brexit-poll-finds-idUSKBN1DX0P6

http://www.businessinsider.com/poll-second-brexit-referendum-deal-bmg-theresa-may-2018-1

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/26/britons-favour-second-referendum-brexit-icm-poll

[dick dasterdly]

41 minutes ago, johnsnapo said:

It should have been aout a 15 euro fee for passing the customs and about 15 euros Dutch VAT per package but what the hell has this got to do with Brexit ?

It took me a while to work out too, but I think the poster is referring to the ridiculously high EU import taxes?

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, ilostmypassword said:

Believe it or not, you're saying it doesn't make it so. When speaking for tohers, you might consider consulting something other than your own beliefs.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-vote/half-of-britons-support-a-second-vote-on-brexit-poll-finds-idUSKBN1DX0P6

http://www.businessinsider.com/poll-second-brexit-referendum-deal-bmg-theresa-may-2018-1

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/26/britons-favour-second-referendum-brexit-icm-poll

Have to admit that I haven't read the quoted articles (other than the reuters article - until it went on and on about blair's opinions....).

 

Even so, I too have been saying for a while that another referendum on the 'agreed deal' is probably a good idea.  As long as it includes the option 'leave immediately'.

 

The few articles I have read don't include this option - only 'accept deal' (never mind how bad) or, 'remain an EU member'.

 

Which leaves offers zero choice if the agreed deal is a more expensive version of remain!

[Laughing Gravy]

1 hour ago, ilostmypassword said:

Believe it or not, you're saying it doesn't make it so. When speaking for tohers, you might consider consulting something other than your own beliefs.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-vote/half-of-britons-support-a-second-vote-on-brexit-poll-finds-idUSKBN1DX0P6

http://www.businessinsider.com/poll-second-brexit-referendum-deal-bmg-theresa-may-2018-1

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/26/britons-favour-second-referendum-brexit-icm-poll

How ironic all those papers and articles are ardent reaminers. I was talking from a personal perspective. Yes even those from the Guardian who many forget are staunch labour voters and many voted to leave. A fact the Guardian doesn't like to promote and on its articles and messages. They have many posters who are shouted down and screamed at by remainers constantly which seems like a tactic they constantly use. That and claiming for another referendum.

 

If this is your argument for another referendum it is as strong as Gina Miller, weak.

[Laughing Gravy]

It is no coincidence this seemingly constant barrage of a call for a second referendum from the press and those supporting the EU. they know they are sinking. This says it all.

 

Much qualitative research shows that among Remain voters there is a fairly substantial group who, while regretting the result, strongly believe that it was morally binding. They could be angry about a second referendum and express it by voting for Leave. Appealing to this sentiment may be one of the most powerful aspects of a second Leave campaign. Remainers will want to rely on strong, consistent support for having a second ballot so they can avoid a backlash among their own voters.

 

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/a-second-eu-vote-could-destroy-remainers-rhc827nq9

 

Read this from an ardent remainer. This is from the times that supports the remain camp. (for those who need to pay for access)

 

A week before the European referendum I sat on a terrace with a friend and, as the sun went down literally and metaphorically, tried hard to persuade him not to vote Leave. I did not succeed. Yes, he said, he agreed that leaving wasn’t a great idea, but he was sure that if we voted to depart, we wouldn’t actually have to go. Brussels would give us a fresh deal to stay in, he insisted. A better one than David Cameron had got.

Oh no they won’t, I replied.

 

And, of course, I was right. Although fat lot of good it did me. But there were millions of people who voted like my friend did, fondly imagining all sorts of different outcomes that will not happen and having all sorts of hopes that will be dashed. So surely if we had another referendum, people like my friend would leave Leave, and Remain would win?

I’m not so sure. I think it’s quite possible that if we had another vote, Leave would get a bigger majority than it did last time. I’m not in favour of holding a second vote but there is clearly a serious push for one. So let’s try to work out what could happen.

 

The argument that the British people would reverse their decision is reasonably strong. Leave was a coalition of different views and any deal on our future trading relationship with Europe would disappoint some of them. During the first vote, for example, some Leave voters wanted us to stay in the European single market, while others regarded the single market and its reliance on the rulings of the European Court of Justice as the heart of the problem with the EU. A deal could send these voters in different directions.

 

The powerful Leave argument about taxpayers’ money being “sent to Brussels” would be blunted by the proposal to continue sending such money for years. And, just as Leave relied in the first vote on a misunderstanding about how much of that money could really be spent on things like the NHS, so, in a second vote, Remain could rely on a misunderstanding that there was a “divorce bill”.

 

In 2016 Leave voters were much more motivated than Remain ones and, so analysts suggest, turned out to vote in greater numbers. It could well be that the shock of that result for Remainers may make next time different. Would more young people vote? Perhaps Jeremy Corbyn would feel he should campaign more enthusiastically this time, bringing out more Labour voters for staying in.

 

And finally, Remain would have a second chance to land the argument it failed to land last time. Having at least the outlines of a deal to point to, there is a chance that people will find more persuasive the argument that Brexit would be economically damaging.

 

Yet there are three big arguments that could help Leave and outweigh any of these points.

The first concerns the deal that another vote could be fought on. One of the biggest advantages that Remain had in the first referendum was that Leave wasn’t sure what alternative it was really offering. This meant that Remain was able to offer the status quo against uncertainty. This is always a powerful (if not decisive) factor.

In a second referendum that advantage would be removed. Leave would be able to offer greater clarity about what life would look like after leaving the EU while, perhaps, arguing the real uncertainty lay in trying to stay in. Which was the status quo and which the risky leap into the unknown may be much less clear to voters.

Naturally, big business would argue that the new deal was not as good as current trading terms and that it would damage the economy. But that would rely on exactly the same forecasts that Remain used last time — “Project Fear” — and which failed to convince Leave voters then.

 

Indeed, since some Remain forecasting about the immediate consequences was unduly pessimistic (there has been economic harm but no recession, for instance) it may prover even harder next time to make the argument on the basis of such assessments. So the deal may not have the political impact that the Remainers imagine.

The next big thing that could help Leave in a second referendum is the support of the government. Having negotiated a deal, it would be only human nature if Theresa May decided that it was a good one and recommended it.

During the first referendum, the majority of Conservative MPs and the most senior members of the cabinet supported remaining in the EU. Depending, of course, on the outcome of negotiations, this could be reversed next time. The prime minister might not be very popular, and she may even put some people off, but the authority of her office should not be underestimated. The support of 10 Downing Street could make leaving appear less risky.

It is hard to think of any leading Leave advocates who have changed their minds since the vote in 2016. Contrast that with the change of heart of several leading Remain advocates, such as Jeremy Hunt, who have indicated they may support a Leave vote next time — however baffling and dispiriting I regard their defection. The assumption that Leavers are the only people who will have second thoughts is wrong.

 

There is one more reason to think Leave’s vote share could go up rather than down in a second ballot and it is the most important one. It has to do with attitudes to “the establishment”.

If voters believed that a second referendum was being held just because politicians didn’t fancy doing what they were told to do by the first one, it could provoke a reaction that increased support for leaving.

Much qualitative research shows that among Remain voters there is a fairly substantial group who, while regretting the result, strongly believe that it was morally binding. They could be angry about a second referendum and express it by voting for Leave. Appealing to this sentiment may be one of the most powerful aspects of a second Leave campaign. Remainers will want to rely on strong, consistent support for having a second ballot so they can avoid a backlash among their own voters. As yet, however, opinion polls vary depending on how you put the question.

For those of us convinced that the first referendum produced the wrong answer, it may be hard to accept that a second referendum could repeat the error. But I very much fear it could.

[gamini]

4 hours ago, Topdoc said:

We recently sent 2 packages to Europe (The Netherlands) via courier from Thailand. The value of each package was €60. On arrival, the customer was slapped with european customs taxes and duties of €61 for each package i.e MORE THAN 100% TAX.

 

Maybe that what is in store for the UK when it leaves the EU

[alien365]

3 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

Believe it or not, you're saying it doesn't make it so. When speaking for tohers, you might consider consulting something other than your own beliefs.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-vote/half-of-britons-support-a-second-vote-on-brexit-poll-finds-idUSKBN1DX0P6

http://www.businessinsider.com/poll-second-brexit-referendum-deal-bmg-theresa-may-2018-1

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/26/britons-favour-second-referendum-brexit-icm-poll

Saying that half of Brits would like a second vote is no surprise considering that 48% of voters wanted to stay in.

By having a second referendum is not good for democracy in my mind. It just shows that they would repeat the polls until they get the results they want.

[dunroaming]

5 hours ago, Topdoc said:

We recently sent 2 packages to Europe (The Netherlands) via courier from Thailand. The value of each package was €60. On arrival, the customer was slapped with european customs taxes and duties of €61 for each package i.e MORE THAN 100% TAX.

 

My wife recently sent a new iPad Air to her sister in Thailand and she was charged almost a 100% import tax.  That hasn't got anything to do with Brexit either. 

 

Looking at it another way.  If an EU member country sends a package to another EU country there are no custom taxes.  An argument for being in?  Now that is relevant to Brexit 

[dunroaming]

Well it is interesting that Brexit has caused such deep divisions within the country.  But it is much more than Brexit, it highlights the deep divisions there are in society in general.  The USA is another example of how bitter we have all become.  At a time when Britain really needs strong and conscientious leadership we have inadequate self obsessed second rate politicians to contend with.

 

Of course we are the people who elected them but in all honesty, the choices were completely dire.  The case of the best of a really bad shower.

[TommyUK1960]

C_oa46WVwAAXnk2.jpg large.jfifC_oa46WVwAAXnk2.jpg large.jfif

[Enoon]

2 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

It is no coincidence this seemingly constant barrage of a call for a second referendum from the press and those supporting the EU. they know they are sinking. This says it all.

 

 

 

 40% in 35% out, (25% not "bothered"?) is more light at the end of the tunnel for the Gov.

 

Forget about referendums, that's gone, no one is going to make that mistake again.

 

No need for the Gov to consult anyone (except the statisticians).......at the point of decision.

 

It will play the hand that it feels safe with.......at the point of decision.

 

It's just a question of what is "possible"........at the point of decision.

 

The EU will allow the UK Gov to take as long as it likes to arrive at a time that it can make the "right" decision, the one the UK Gov (and the EU) really wants.

 

Postponements, special arrangements, "transition periods", you name it.

 

A few more years of changing stats (a few more dead pensioners?) to come before it's "safe".

 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2018 by Enoon

[Topdoc]

5 hours ago, johnsnapo said:

It should have been aout a 15 euro fee for passing the customs and about 15 euros Dutch VAT per package but what the hell has this got to do with Brexit ?

Sorry, wrong thread 

[dunroaming]

35 minutes ago, Enoon said:

 

 40% in 35% out, (25% not "bothered"?) is more light at the end of the tunnel for the Gov.

 

Forget about referendums, that's gone, no one is going to make that mistake again.

 

No need for the Gov to consult anyone (except the statisticians).......at the point of decision.

 

It will play the hand that it feels safe with.......at the point of decision.

 

It's just a question of what is "possible"........at the point of decision.

 

The EU will allow the UK Gov to take as long as it likes to arrive at a time that it can make the "right" decision, the one the UK Gov (and the EU) really wants.

 

Postponements, special arrangements, "transition periods", you name it.

 

A few more years of changing stats (a few more dead pensioners?) to come before it's "safe".

 

 

 

Interesting post.  And valid if we have a government on the same page.  At the moment though.....

 

It's the constant uncertainty  that is so disruptive for businesses and investors alike.

[Baerboxer]

6 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

Have to admit that I haven't read the quoted articles (other than the reuters article - until it went on and on about blair's opinions....).

 

Even so, I too have been saying for a while that another referendum on the 'agreed deal' is probably a good idea.  As long as it includes the option 'leave immediately'.

 

The few articles I have read don't include this option - only 'accept deal' (never mind how bad) or, 'remain an EU member'.

 

Which leaves offers zero choice if the agreed deal is a more expensive version of remain!

 

They could have a referendum on any proposed deal. Accept the deal, leave immediately, or remain in the EU and withdraw Article 50.

 

Only that would be a cop out. The UK has a representative democracy and the politicians elected to parliament should be voting on this, with those choices. Let's get them standing up and being counted and actually doing their very well paid and pensioned no retirement age jobs. 

 

The whole referendum farce was a Tory leader trying to be clever and increase his own authority on his party at public expense. And backfired horrendously. The constant attempts by his replacement to circumvent due constitutional process, and getting thwarted speaks volumes for their lack of respect for the constitution and traditions. Time they and the lackluster half baked opposition to be brought to book.

 

 

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, dunroaming said:

Interesting post.  And valid if we have a government on the same page.  At the moment though.....

 

It's the constant uncertainty  that is so disruptive for businesses and investors alike.

 

And the "constant uncertainty" has been created almost entirely by remain, who refused to accept the referendum result.

[nontabury]

3 hours ago, alien365 said:

Saying that half of Brits would like a second vote is no surprise considering that 48% of voters wanted to stay in.

By having a second referendum is not good for democracy in my mind. It just shows that they would repeat the polls until they get the results they want.

Agree, even though there is an article in today’s Times, that states a larger majority would now vote for Brexit.

[dunroaming]

45 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

And the "constant uncertainty" has been created almost entirely by remain, who refused to accept the referendum result.

Or if the remainers had won then there wouldn't be any uncertainty at all. The uncertainty is due to the government not being able to say what they can achieve with Brexit.  The remainers are fighting for what they think is in the best interest of the country and leavers are fighting for the same.  We are both going to be disappointed.

[ilostmypassword]

1 hour ago, nontabury said:

Agree, even though there is an article in today’s Times, that states a larger majority would now vote for Brexit.

 

An opinion article. So what?

[masuk]

11 hours ago, Topdoc said:

We recently sent 2 packages to Europe (The Netherlands) via courier from Thailand. The value of each package was €60. On arrival, the customer was slapped with european customs taxes and duties of €61 for each package i.e MORE THAN 100% TAX.

 

Interesting that the Union Jack is flying the international distress signal.    It's upside down!!

[Khun Han]

2 hours ago, dunroaming said:

Or if the remainers had won then there wouldn't be any uncertainty at all. The uncertainty is due to the government not being able to say what they can achieve with Brexit.  The remainers are fighting for what they think is in the best interest of the country and leavers are fighting for the same.  We are both going to be disappointed.

 

The potentially big problem going forward though is not brexit. It's the way that remain and it's backers have behaved since the referendum. Leave (and other groupings on other issues) will have learned from this. And politics in general is going to move on to a whole new, much dirtier and underhand level from now on. I suspect that brexit is going to be one of the smaller problems in years to come.

[Scott]

Baiting post and replies removed.  

 

[SABloke]

12 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

It took me a while to work out too, but I think the poster is referring to the ridiculously high EU import taxes?

Import taxes protect local businesses (in Thailand they are over the top). Maple Syrup has 65% import rate...how many Thai Maple trees abound??

[nontabury]

4 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

 

An opinion article. So what?

Are not all articles,reports, and assessments on the outcome of Brexit, just opinions. Though we are all aware that the opinions of the remain camp regarding the disaster that would befall the UK economy after Brexit were completely out. But you are still prepared to listen to their “expert” advice.

Edited January 31, 2018 by nontabury

[Laughing Gravy]

7 hours ago, Benroon said:

Gina Miller weak ? You try almost bringing s democratic government down based on your beliefs - let us know how you get on 

. That is the funniest thing I have heard all weak. Pun intended.

[Guest]

20 hours ago, Topdoc said:

We recently sent 2 packages to Europe (The Netherlands) via courier from Thailand. The value of each package was €60. On arrival, the customer was slapped with european customs taxes and duties of €61 for each package i.e MORE THAN 100% TAX.

 

That's a good example how the EU's single market works. It protects the local goods production so that it makes sense to produce various products inside EU, instead of importing those from other countries.

 

This is protecting local jobs and economies. By local I mean EU. 

 

Then UK leaves the single market, there will be all kind of costs and also all kind of paperwork & inspections, like customs, to be added for the UK products which enter the EU area.

 

Would you do a easy purchase from Germany or buy it from UK with all the hassled and added costs?

 

[Laughing Gravy]

4 minutes ago, Benroon said:

So explain why she’s weak ? 

OK I will humour you this time.

She isn't an elected member of parliament. if she wants to get involved in politics, stand for a constituent.

She was trying to stop a democratic referendum result-that is weak and for me she is an abysmal person.

She regularly plays the race card, citing that she can't travel on the underground anymore. She probably never did as she is filthy rich.

She stated that she didn't want to have a second referendum but after losing her case she has now admitted she does.

She is all about her nothing else.  Is that good enough!