Stop Press ! Stop Press Baht Rises

[Gaudente]

I have maintained that THB and most Asian currencies were going to appreciate mainly due to U.S. economic weakness. This still holds true in my eyes which is why I am still invested heavily in JPY and nothing else.

You mean you invested in JPY because US economy is weak and wanted to avoid to follow $ in its fall ?

Well it seems you picked the only one currency in the world that actually was WEAKER then $ in the last 2 years, losing about 15%.

My condolences.

That is temporary and I am still in JPY because it's only a matter of time before it appreciates. Just wait. I was right about many other's in the past and this one will come to fruition as well.

you mean like buying euros 2 years ago as you stated in one of your past threads...well here are the results of such great move either ...and consider also that euro interest rates were lower then $ in the meanwhile

I bought into EUR when it was 1.17 vs USD. I got out of it when it was 1.30 vs USD and then went into JPY after that around 117 vs USD. OK?

Then you sold EUR at the same time when you were posting all your assets were in EUR. I guess everyone can appreciate the genuinity of your advices now.

[Naam]

"If you don't need the free advice then you have the free choice"

trip-x-whatever,

take it easy i asked an ironic question which you think was "sarcastic and mean". the fact remains that only a tiny percentage of well educated and extremely well paid analysts in big financial institutions got their currency forecasts right. i am not referring to the last few years but to the last quarter century.

of course i am aware that a lot of participants seek financial advice in this forum. but financial advice is also when doubts are aired and criticism is applied.

my free choice is to participate in a discussion, presenting my own views and opinions TO EACH AND EVERY POSTING as long as i don't break the forum rules.

do we have an understanding? if yes, fine with me. if no, then fine with me too.

[Gaudente]

G-Steel10.......................................... XS0229866354

According to its prospect, this bond should be listed at Singapore, but on the SGX site I am unable to find it, and on UBS it never shows any actual exchange, just theorical bid/offer. Would you be able to give me a link where I could check its current price and volume traded ?

[ThailandTony]

for further irony go to [email protected]

[jumbo2]

Currency traders must be making huge amounts - The rate on Bloomberg for us $ fluctuates around 7% so buy and selling on dips must be very easy - Anyone know any reputable currency traders that can take advantage of these fluctuations ?

er yes we are...we love the BOT

[ThailandTony]

Gaudente....aka......gendarme de finance a Da Vinci, glad to see someones cracking the code Gaudente, keep up the good work!

[jumbo2]

Yes I will complete my puchase, but when we signed the agreement the baht was at 38. ###### who would have thunk????

Who would have thunk? Well, me. I predicted 1-2 years ago in this very forum these moves we have seen from the Thai Baht recently. I invest heavily in forex so I pay attention to whatever in the world will make currencies fluctuate and have done quite well. The writing was all over the wall on this one.

That doesn't mean you can't be educated and play the odds or read the signs. There were many signs it would move to this range for a while.

100% correct sir.

The US economy isn't bad at all right now. The weakening dollar is helping to lower the deficits and helps with US exports and inbound tourism. So it ain't that simple. Seems to me the current baht move is more about the Chinese Yuan.

I beg to differ. The U.S. economy is not doing well at all and hasn't been for quite a while now. This is why most of my money has been out of USD since 2002 even though I live in the U.S. Current Baht movements against USD are because of fundemental U.S. weakness vs. fundemental Thai strength.

Most of you are way late to the party here. All these forex moves were discussed in here ad nauseum 1-2 years ago like I said. While I predicted this was going to happen I had people telling me then that I didn't know what I was talking about. Who is having the last laugh now?

DID YOU HAVE A 2YR FWD POSITION THEN??? HOW MANY PIPS DID YOU PAY AWAY??

[Paul MBMG]

not very many of them though because of the illiquidity of the offshore Baht spot market and the lack of derivatives available.....

not that there aren't opportunities but most big trading desks can only (in their only vernacular) nibble....

Currency traders must be making huge amounts - The rate on Bloomberg for us $ fluctuates around 7% so buy and selling on dips must be very easy - Anyone know any reputable currency traders that can take advantage of these fluctuations ?

er yes we are...we love the BOT

[TRIPxCORE]

I have maintained that THB and most Asian currencies were going to appreciate mainly due to U.S. economic weakness. This still holds true in my eyes which is why I am still invested heavily in JPY and nothing else.

You mean you invested in JPY because US economy is weak and wanted to avoid to follow $ in its fall ?

Well it seems you picked the only one currency in the world that actually was WEAKER then $ in the last 2 years, losing about 15%.

My condolences.

That is temporary and I am still in JPY because it's only a matter of time before it appreciates. Just wait. I was right about many other's in the past and this one will come to fruition as well.

you mean like buying euros 2 years ago as you stated in one of your past threads...well here are the results of such great move either ...and consider also that euro interest rates were lower then $ in the meanwhile

I bought into EUR when it was 1.17 vs USD. I got out of it when it was 1.30 vs USD and then went into JPY after that around 117 vs USD. OK?

Then you sold EUR at the same time when you were posting all your assets were in EUR. I guess everyone can appreciate the genuinity of your advices now.

I sold my position on Euro when I thought it was going to take a temporary tumble but I did not think it was a bad investment. I was still bearish on USD vs EUR at that time but I wanted to go into JPY so I sold my EUR position. Clear?

my free choice is to participate in a discussion, presenting my own views and opinions TO EACH AND EVERY POSTING as long as i don't break the forum rules.

That is correct. You have the free choice to participate in a constructive discussion on here just as much as anyone else. What you replied to me though was neither constructive nor part of the discussion the way I saw it. What I saw was someone wanting to be sarcastic towards me for staking my claim as the one to have predicted old currency moves. For what reason you did this I have no idea. As I told everyone that I had predicted the current state of THB & Asian currencies 1-2 years ago, right away someone doubted the veracity of my claim. So I proved it by posting the links to the posts where I did in fact say such things. It was relevant as part of the current discussion is about THB and why it's doing what it's doing.

DID YOU HAVE A 2YR FWD POSITION THEN??? HOW MANY PIPS DID YOU PAY AWAY??

If I had to classify myself I would say I am a speculator. I do not make a timetable for how long I am going to be in a currency. Most of the time I am looking at short-medium term direction of currencies as opposed to long direction. What is ideal for me is to get into a currency just when it has found some weakness and get out of it right after it has appreciated to what I feel is an acceptable level.

As for pips, I did not pay any. I do not invest in currencies that way.

Edited January 30, 2007 by TRIPxCORE

[Naam]

G-Steel10.......................................... XS0229866354

According to its prospect, this bond should be listed at Singapore, but on the SGX site I am unable to find it, and on UBS it never shows any actual exchange, just theorical bid/offer. Would you be able to give me a link where I could check its current price and volume traded ?

unfortunately UBS stopped a few days ago (january 19th) all quotes. only clients with username and password can access their bond service now. i am banking with Credit Suisse and use my online portfolio for (delayed) prices. present price for GST is bid 94.625 / ask 95.250, crt yld 11.057%, ytm 12.007% (based on semi-annual coupon).

if you have CUSIP numbers of the bonds you are interested in then "TRACE" offers free of charge prices AND volumes.

example:

http://www.investinginbonds.org/corporateb...cusip=21986MAK1

[Naam]

addendum for "gaudente":

G-Steel is mostly traded in Asia and during asian trading times. in Europe and NY rather illiquid.

if you are interested in bond or financial research PM me with e-mail. i am getting dozens of different researches from a bunch of multinational banks every day and can most of them share without infringement of copyrights and most of the time i don't really care about copyrights

another caveat: G-Steel (like most of the bonds in my portfolio) trades in minimum batches of USD 100,000 only, i.e. not suitable for a moderate portfolio.

[Paul MBMG]

Dear Dave,

our views would be as follows:

Euro will generally strengthen during 2007 as the least damaged major western currency - increasing acceptance as a reserve curency could see it even gain relative to ChF during the year even through the Franc has reasonable relative fundamentals.

I wouldn't be surprosed to see Sterling and Baht maintain overall periods of parity althpough there are times when each will weaken aginst the other (Baht vulnerable due to socio-politics, Sterling due to indebtedness of UK economy and vulnerability of UK property market along with expected reducing interest rate differentials towards the year end)

a year hence my best guess would be that Baht could be anywhere between 65-75 to GBP, 28.5-33.5 against US$ and 44-52 versus Euro. These are range estimates and are based on opinion - we've got a reasonable track record that currencies eventually go to where we expect but not neccessarily exactly when. Also long term predictions can be overtaken by unforeseen events so PLEASE understand that these are forecasts and are not written in stone (for legal reasonsI have to say at this point that neither myself nor the company can accept any liability for the consequences of any actions taken or not taken as a result of reading this).

We're also negative on the outlook for Spanish property, I'm afraid as we feel that it will suffer a knock on in the evnt of any US/UK housing calamity.

I think that taking a reasonable offer and not holding out for too much would be the approach that I would take BUT no-one has 20/20 foresight, even TV.com posters!!

Let me know if that helps (sorry of it's not completely upbeat)

Paul

Thanks Paul,

I realise it will be an educated guess on your part, but can I ask you what you believe will happen ON AVERAGE to the baht versus the GBP or Euro during 2007?

The reason I ask, is a big concern regarding the attempted sale of my Spanish home in a falling and dead Costa Blanca, Spain market. My house has been up for sale for 10 months and the signs are it will be on the market much longer due to mortgage interest rates keep going up recently, over building, reduced demand, AND lots of people selling their houses particularly cheap to get SOME capital back etc.

97% my capital is tied up in that house So I have to hold out for a low BUT reasonable sale price. When it does FINALLY sell I intend moving the 135,000 Euros to Thailand to buy a home for my wife (of 9 months) and her son and a car (none of which can be afforded without that sale).

To be honest I was very frightened when I saw the Baht value of my house drop from around 6,300,000 baht to around 5,859,000 some 450,000 baht less overnight on the xe.com. OK it has been explained very well to me that xe.com is not necessarily what I should be looking at look but I am worried that the onshore rate may follow suit. Do you feel the baht will on average be around 46 -47 baht per Euro during 2007 or do you feel it will drop toward the xe.com rates of around only 43.5 (or lower) to the Euro.

To be honest I have said to my wife that if I sell my house at at time the baht is VERY strong then I will delay moving money across and buying a house as that would reduce the financial strength and protection of my family. Even my UK pension would be damaged if the GBP dropped to xe.com currently quoted rates (51,500 baht would drop to around 48,800 baht - a savage drop)

Kind regards, Dave

[Naam]

"As for pips, I did not pay any. I do not invest in currencies that way."

*****

very interesting! i have always paid and still pay pips for any currency transaction whether outright or forward. am i right in my assumption that the procedure not paying pips is top secret and can therefore not be disclosed?

[ThailandTony]

I get paid in Bahraini Dinars guys and am looking for any trends to try and predict a particular time to transfer back to my THB account, any tips? Am in no rush so any predictions for next 12 months would be appreciated.

[TRIPxCORE]

"As for pips, I did not pay any. I do not invest in currencies that way."

*****

very interesting! i have always paid and still pay pips for any currency transaction whether outright or forward. am i right in my assumption that the procedure not paying pips is top secret and can therefore not be disclosed?

No it's no secret but I might have misunderstood what he was asking me about pips now that I think about it. I don't invest in forex strictly buying and selling lots of currencies like most people. The way I choose to expose myself to forex is by purchasing foreign bonds that are denominated in a particular currency. So I am not strictly a forex trader per se but forex movements are my main focus.

[MikeWill]

I have maintained that THB and most Asian currencies were going to appreciate mainly due to U.S. economic weakness. This still holds true in my eyes which is why I am still invested heavily in JPY and nothing else.

You mean you invested in JPY because US economy is weak and wanted to avoid to follow $ in its fall ?

Well it seems you picked the only one currency in the world that actually was WEAKER then $ in the last 2 years, losing about 15%.

My condolences.

That is temporary and I am still in JPY because it's only a matter of time before it appreciates. Just wait. I was right about many other's in the past and this one will come to fruition as well.

Speaking about predictions... (and also of 'free' advice)

On the one hand, two years ago you picked the weakest currency (i.e. JPY) as an alternative to the US$, keep it for two years (losing about 15%), and today, you claim that it is just a temporary weakness.

Are there some "signs on the wall" that support your claim?

Why on the other hand, it isn't correct (in your opinion) to say that the srength of THB is temporary as well?

Is it true that for some participants in this forum it is more important to gain in credability of their claims/predictions rather than profits from investments?

[gdhm]

Dear Dave,

our views would be as follows:

Euro will generally strengthen during 2007 as the least damaged major western currency - increasing acceptance as a reserve currency could see it even gain relative to ChF during the year even through the Franc has reasonable relative fundamentals.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Sterling and Baht maintain overall periods of parity although there are times when each will weaken against the other (Baht vulnerable due to socio-politics, Sterling due to indebtedness of UK economy and vulnerability of UK property market along with expected reducing interest rate differentials towards the year end)

a year hence my best guess would be that Baht could be anywhere between 65-75 to GBP, 28.5-33.5 against US$ and 44-52 versus Euro. These are range estimates and are based on opinion - we've got a reasonable track record that currencies eventually go to where we expect but not necessarily exactly when. Also long term predictions can be overtaken by unforeseen events so PLEASE understand that these are forecasts and are not written in stone (for legal reasons I have to say at this point that neither myself nor the company can accept any liability for the consequences of any actions taken or not taken as a result of reading this).

We're also negative on the outlook for Spanish property, I'm afraid as we feel that it will suffer a knock on in the event of any US/UK housing calamity.

I think that taking a reasonable offer and not holding out for too much would be the approach that I would take BUT no-one has 20/20 foresight, even TV.com posters!!

Let me know if that helps (sorry of it's not completely upbeat)

Paul

Paul thanks ever so much for your time and effort and YES it does help.

Don't worry about it not being upbeat as I prefer a genuine opinion based on some skilled knowledge rather than an upbeat pure guess. "To Forewarned is to be forearmed" as they say. I recognise nothing is laid in stone, but at least I have an opinion of a person much more experienced and knowledgeable on the whole subject than myself to bear in mind with future planning.

Thank you SO MUCH Paul for responding to my particular circumstances

Kindest Regards

Dave

Edited January 30, 2007 by gdhm

[Naam]

Speaking about predictions... (and also of 'free' advice)

On the one hand, two years ago you picked the weakest currency (i.e. JPY) as an alternative to the US$, keep it for two years (losing about 15%), and today, you claim that it is just a temporary weakness.

if that is the case then our friend who likes JP¥ has lost much more than 15% in two years.

-a currency loss of ~18%

-a loss of yield differential (JP¥ bonds vs. US-Treasuries) of 4% p.a. = 8%

= summa summarum 26% = minus 13% per annum.

nota bene: i agree with "trip-x-1234" that the time of JP¥ appreciation vs. USD and especially €UR will come. it's only a matter of time. the question is whether an investor is willing to sit out that time and take considerable losses (due to yield difference) even when both currencies don't move.

moreover, a speculator in currencies does not buy low yielding bonds especially in a near absolute low interest environment in that currency (as we exerience since several years with JP¥) and where a rather tiny hike of the Bank of Japan can wipe out a few points in a day. a speculator buys options or trades forward in order to be able to cut or limit losses within minutes during trading hours.

for what it's worth: about a year ago most "anal"-ysts were shouting unisono "short JP¥ against €UR!!! there is no way that that JP¥/€UR will cross 145!!! today we are at 158 = currency loss 9% and yield loss 3% = total minus 12%.

i always wondered what for these people get their salaries and bonuses. perhaps somebody can enlighten me.

[teej]

"note bene" .... haha, Dr. Naam you are quickly becoming my favorite poster... I even have a chuckle every time I read your postings and picture the words coming from Worf.

[Paul MBMG]

anal -ysts!! LOL

most analysts do talk rot most of the time and many of these have vested interests anyway.

Find a good impartial analyst who understands that there are 5 asset classes (or maybe 6 depending on categorisation) and has a track record of consistently achieving double digit averages through all stage sof the cycle and no annual year trading account losses and a good ecord of currency calls (there are a few out there and we make good use of them) and life gets much easier!!

for what it's worth: about a year ago most "anal"-ysts were shouting unisono "short JP¥ against €UR!!! there is no way that that JP¥/€UR will cross 145!!! today we are at 158 = currency loss 9% and yield loss 3% = total minus 12%.

i always wondered what for these people get their salaries and bonuses. perhaps somebody can enlighten me.

[Paul MBMG]

YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED TO HEAR ABOUT THE FOLLOWING which has just come accross my desk:

GROSS EFFECTIVE RATE

1 Month 15% p.a effective

3 Months 12% p.a effective

6 Months 9% p.a effective

12 Months 8% p.a effective

10% withholding tax should be deducted

N.B: RATES CAN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE

Please note that the current volatility in the market may mean that these rates may change at very short notice. Should rates change between application and actual investment you will be notified prior to the investment being executed. Note however that once invested the rate is applicable for the chosen investment term. We would anticipate greatest volatility in the shorter terms.

These rates provide an excellent premium to those available generally and may be worth your consideration for those of who are holding Thai Baht and are seeking a capital secure environment with income alternative.

moreover, a speculator in currencies does not buy low yielding bonds especially in a near absolute low interest environment in that currency (as we exerience since several years with JP¥) and where a rather tiny hike of the Bank of Japan can wipe out a few points in a day. a speculator buys options or trades forward in order to be able to cut or limit losses within minutes during trading hours.

i always wondered what for these people get their salaries and bonuses. perhaps somebody can enlighten me.

[Paul MBMG]

Dear Tony,

sorry - can't be too much help here - I don't follow Dinars so unless they're highly correlated with something that I know then I'd be too far away from what I'm comfortable with. When in doubt or unsure, it's best to admit it, I find.

Paul

I get paid in Bahraini Dinars guys and am looking for any trends to try and predict a particular time to transfer back to my THB account, any tips? Am in no rush so any predictions for next 12 months would be appreciated.

[Gaudente]

Dura 09 EUR..................................... XS0101338829

G-Steel10.......................................... XS0229866354

I can just hope the latter(that I also own) does not end the same as the former....

Btw, have you received my PM ? I am not sure the system processed it properly, it does not appear in my sent messages list...and TOT internet connection further limited by View Talay reuter is crappy indeed....

[Gaudente]

Gajah Tunggal10............................ XS0224891944

I considered buying this one a few months ago but decided NOT TO after I read the 30.06.2006 results.

If you look at page 6 of the enclosed file, you see how the earnings before tax would be zero if it was not for the forex gain of IDR on USD on their bond.In the latest 18 months earnings have been constantly downtrend , and interest expense constantly raising.

Also suspicious increases in cash (??) and advances (??) make me think they might be covering an even worse situation.

Just a free anal-ysis

Gajah_Tunggal_30.06.2006.pdf

[Naam]

Gajah Tunggal10............................ XS0224891944

I considered buying this one a few months ago but decided NOT TO after I read the 30.06.2006 results.

If you look at page 6 of the enclosed file, you see how the earnings before tax would be zero if it was not for the forex gain of IDR on USD on their bond.In the latest 18 months earnings have been constantly downtrend , and interest expense constantly raising.

Also suspicious increases in cash (??) and advances (??) make me think they might be covering an even worse situation.

Just a free anal-ysis

gaudente,

just answered your PM on G-Steel which is in the same league (HYld/risk) as Gajah Tunggal. it should be obvious that any debtor bond yielding presently in excess of 10% p.a. is a risk play too. that's why none of my individual holdings exceed 2% of my portfolio. in fact most of them are in the 1-1.5% range except my cash positions.

[Naam]

Dura 09 EUR..................................... XS0101338829

G-Steel10.......................................... XS0229866354

I can just hope the latter(that I also own) does not end the same as the former....

Btw, have you received my PM ? I am not sure the system processed it properly, it does not appear in my sent messages list...and TOT internet connection further limited by View Talay reuter is crappy indeed....

Dura is the only "chicken in my farm" that doesn't lay eggs. i bought Dura after the default, do not consider it an "investment" but a lottery ticket. by the way, Duras denominated in USD had a near 100% performance during the last 2 months (from 3.5 to 7.75), EUR Duras are lagging and can still be picked up dirt cheap.

PM on G-Steel answered as mentioned already. flying to Brazil today and can therefore continue interesting discussion for another few hours only.

[TRIPxCORE]

I have maintained that THB and most Asian currencies were going to appreciate mainly due to U.S. economic weakness. This still holds true in my eyes which is why I am still invested heavily in JPY and nothing else.

You mean you invested in JPY because US economy is weak and wanted to avoid to follow $ in its fall ?

Well it seems you picked the only one currency in the world that actually was WEAKER then $ in the last 2 years, losing about 15%.

My condolences.

That is temporary and I am still in JPY because it's only a matter of time before it appreciates. Just wait. I was right about many other's in the past and this one will come to fruition as well.

Speaking about predictions... (and also of 'free' advice)

On the one hand, two years ago you picked the weakest currency (i.e. JPY) as an alternative to the US$, keep it for two years (losing about 15%), and today, you claim that it is just a temporary weakness.

Are there some "signs on the wall" that support your claim?

Why on the other hand, it isn't correct (in your opinion) to say that the srength of THB is temporary as well?

Currency moves are never permanent. They are always temporary albeit some longer than others. JPY has gone up and down since I acquired it, this is true. The same thing happened with my EUR investment. It is my belief that JPY will appreciate to somewhere under the 110 mark vs USD. When this will happen I do not know. I am willing to wait out the storm and willing to wait for everyone else to get their head out of their a** and start buying JPY and cashing out their USD. Anyone that has experience dealing in forex knows how volatile it can be. These ups & downs are just part of the game. If I could predict the precise moment a currency would go up and sell it exactly before it started heading back down I would be a millionaire.

[Naam]

"YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED TO HEAR ABOUT THE FOLLOWING which has just come accross my desk:

GROSS EFFECTIVE RATE

1 Month 15% p.a effective

3 Months 12% p.a effective

6 Months 9% p.a effective

12 Months 8% p.a effective"

*****

not really interested in a THB yield of 8% minus tax Paul especially not if i have to bring in the money and invest it with a local bank.

by the way, is this offer from "TMB"? they are in big trouble!

[TRIPxCORE]

Speaking about predictions... (and also of 'free' advice)

On the one hand, two years ago you picked the weakest currency (i.e. JPY) as an alternative to the US$, keep it for two years (losing about 15%), and today, you claim that it is just a temporary weakness.

moreover, a speculator in currencies does not buy low yielding bonds especially in a near absolute low interest environment in that currency (as we exerience since several years with JP¥) and where a rather tiny hike of the Bank of Japan can wipe out a few points in a day. a speculator buys options or trades forward in order to be able to cut or limit losses within minutes during trading hours.

for what it's worth: about a year ago most "anal"-ysts were shouting unisono "short JP¥ against €UR!!! there is no way that that JP¥/€UR will cross 145!!! today we are at 158 = currency loss 9% and yield loss 3% = total minus 12%.

i always wondered what for these people get their salaries and bonuses. perhaps somebody can enlighten me.

Alas, there is more than one meaning of the word speculator sir. I am a speculator in the sense that I jump in and out of situations as needed. I am not a buy & hold investor that buys an investment and sits on it for a long time (more than 5 years). Yes sometimes I have to be in my investment for a long while to wait to make money on it but that is out of my control and not by choice. In my eyes a speculator is someone that will take advantage of a trouble situation

just until the situation rights itself. Example - Foreigners buying real estate in Thailand right after the 1997 crash. This is what I call a speculator.

Then I don't know why you continue to bring up analysts around me. Do you think I am an analyst? I can assure you, I am not.

Edited January 30, 2007 by TRIPxCORE

[Naam]

anal -ysts!! LOL

most analysts do talk rot most of the time and many of these have vested interests anyway.

Find a good impartial analyst who understands that there are 5 asset classes (or maybe 6 depending on categorisation) and has a track record of consistently achieving double digit averages through all stage

in 2½ decades of investing i never came across a single one but there is also no way to be specialized in all asset classes. i found a few "anals" with good track records (unfortunately tracking a few years only) who's writings i appreciate very much but do not necessarily follow their recommendations. contrary to my investment strategy of many years holding and trading just half a dozen bonds i am nowadays broadly diversified (none of my holdings except cash exceed 2% of my portfolio) and can lean back even if a debtor goes belly-up and my stop-loss kicks in.

it's the bottom line only that counts.