Naam Posted January 30, 2007 Share Posted January 30, 2007 Then I don't know why you continue to bring up analysts around me. Do you think I am an analyst? I can assure you, I am not. ***** no trip-x..., i am convinced that you are not an anal-yst. i mentioned "anals" only in context of your and their identical recommendation "BUY JP¥!" JP¥ could make a big move when the big boys and hedge funds will reduce their carry trades JP¥ vs. ISK, TRY, NZD, BRL and MXN. but then there is enough time left to jump on the train. just my personal opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRIPxCORE Posted January 30, 2007 Share Posted January 30, 2007 Then I don't know why you continue to bring up analysts around me. Do you think I am an analyst? I can assure you, I am not. ***** no trip-x..., i am convinced that you are not an anal-yst. i mentioned "anals" only in context of your and their identical recommendation "BUY JP¥!" JP¥ could make a big move when the big boys and hedge funds will reduce their carry trades JP¥ vs. ISK, TRY, NZD, BRL and MXN. but then there is enough time left to jump on the train. just my personal opinion. Yes, there is enough time to get in on it. Perhaps I got in too early but I saw then what I still see now and JPY should be a lot stronger than it is. The Japanese economy is doing better than it has in a long time and the BOJ is on the cusp of raising interest rates. Not to mention that the very reasons the U.S. economy and USD are supposed to be getting weak are still there. Unfortunately the BOJ doesn't want JPY to get too strong or else I would be in a much better position than I currently am. As long as we can get the BOJ to stop manipulating JPY to keep it artificially weak then we'll be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 "As long as we can get the BOJ to stop manipulating JPY to keep it artificially weak then we'll be ok." ***** BOJ has always manipulated and it is a near impossible task to put pressure on them. a similar situation (artificially weak currency) we see in CNY. the slow appreciation of the last 1½ years is not based on pressure of the U.S. but the insight of chinese big shots. i was -and still am- quite interested to participate in CNY, however the minimum trading batch of USD 1 million for NDFs does neither match my strategy nor does it fit into my portfolio. NDFs in BRL turned out to be a superdeal from 2001 till a year ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 "NDFs in BRL turned out to be a superdeal from 2001 till a year ago!" ***** my venture into brazilian real estate was unfortunately not. i am lucky that BRL appreciated 60% vs. USD since i bought two building plots in Brazil otherwise i would sit on a big loss. due to bureaucratic procedures (brazilian embassy in Bangkok refuses to notarize our signatures on portuguese documents) both wife and me are forced to fly to Brazil today. just the tickets ~USD 14,800! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 And this thread has what to do with the Thai Baht anymore? Mods, they've lost the plot and will likely be talking about rice futures next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 And this thread has what to do with the Thai Baht anymore? Mods, they've lost the plot and will likely be talking about rice futures next! and pork bellies but i fully agree with you CM ! for investing a separate thread should be opened. i was thinking of it some time ago but was not sure whether interest exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamuiJens Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 (edited) And this thread has what to do with the Thai Baht anymore? Mods, they've lost the plot and will likely be talking about rice futures next! and pork bellies but i fully agree with you CM ! for investing a separate thread should be opened. i was thinking of it some time ago but was not sure whether interest exists. Agree with the good DR., that would be perfect for those of us that are interested in investments and the market! And I must add that this has and is an interesting thread, SO LETS HAVE ONE OPENED! The sooner the better! My two Baht, for what it's worth. Edited January 31, 2007 by SamuiJens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 (edited) SO LETS HAVE ONE OPENED! open one Jens! i will participate from feb 16th onwards. right now i am getting ready to leave for the airport. how to name the baby? perhaps "Investments, views and opinions"? Edited January 31, 2007 by Dr. Naam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 (edited) If I may interrupt you Gents, about opening a new 'investment' thread/topic: Why not within the -pinned- topic on the forum here ?: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=2273 and this page ?: http://www.thaivisa.com/business_news.0.html but maybe a new 'speculation' topic ....? LaoPo Edited January 31, 2007 by LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filer Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 London over-the-counter rates Out of curiosity (and knowing that I would be in for a shock), I yesterday (31 Jan) checked the over-the-counter exchange rate for Pound to Thai Baht in the main branch of HSBC in London. They were offering rates of sell 57.8 and buy 83.0, which implies a middle rate of 70.4 and a "spread" of 36% around the middle rate - triple their normal spread of around 12%. Even allowing for the fact that it's personal service (rather than internet banking) and the fact that HSBC has contracted-out all its over-the counter exchange business to a third party company, the rates are still shocking and demonstrate how the UK high street banks rip off their unwary customers at any opportunity. Incidentally, the middle commercial market rate seems to have settled down around 68.1 at the end of the day's trading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 (edited) It's a worrying scenario: Interest-rate swaps grow for baht plays Dealers try to beat capital controls http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/01Feb2007_biz35.php And: Baht to surge as dollar weakens http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/01Feb2007_biz34.php Difficult times ahead............ LaoPo Edited February 1, 2007 by LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danone Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 the baht is giving in substantially this morning. all prophecies for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlastaname Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 "NDFs in BRL turned out to be a superdeal from 2001 till a year ago!"***** my venture into brazilian real estate was unfortunately not. i am lucky that BRL appreciated 60% vs. USD since i bought two building plots in Brazil otherwise i would sit on a big loss. due to bureaucratic procedures (brazilian embassy in Bangkok refuses to notarize our signatures on portuguese documents) both wife and me are forced to fly to Brazil today. just the tickets ~USD 14,800! Why didn't you go ecomony class then ? Tickets would be a fraction of the price you paid . If you choose to fly business or first class then you will pay more , but then again you obviously have too much money to spend $14800 on a pair of plane tickets. Must be nice to be rich ...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaudente Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 Must be nice to be rich ...? It is. Provided you are also single. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted February 2, 2007 Share Posted February 2, 2007 Its 9 am and thye baht is at 33.99 to the dollar. Have you noticed how many times you have seen a reference to 1997. Stand by. The markets hate instability and insecurity. Completely different dynamics. Although it may happen anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaudente Posted February 9, 2007 Share Posted February 9, 2007 I ａｍ ｇｏｉｎｇ ｔｏ ｔｒｙ ａｎｄ ｍａｋｅ ｔｈｉｓ ｓｉｍｐｌｅ ｆｏｒ ｅｖｅｒｙｏｎｅ ｔｈａｔ ｄｏｅｓｎ’ｔ ｋｎｏｗ ｔｈａｔ ｍｕｃｈ ａｂｏｕｔ ｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｓ．Ｂｅｃａｕｓｅ ｔｈｅｒｅ ｉｓ ａ ｒｕｌｅ ｔｈａｔ ｙｏｕ ｎｅｅｄ ｔｏ ｐａｙ ａ ３０％ ｄｅｐｏｓｉｔ ｆｏｒ Ｔｈａｉ ｂａｈｔ ｎｏｗ (in Thailand)， ｔｈｉｓ ｈａｓ ｃａｕｓｅｓ ｔｈｅ ｖａｌｕｅ ｏｆ ｔｈｅ ｂａｈｔ ａｌｒｅａｄｙ ｏｕｔｓｉｄｅ ｔｈｅ ｃｏｕｎｔｒｙ ｔｏ ｂｅｃｏｍｅ ｍｏｒｅ ｖａｌｕａｂｌｅ， ｔｈｕｓ ｙｏｕ ｈａｖｅ ｔｗｏ ｍａｒｋｅｔ ｒａｔｅｓ ｎｏｗ ａｎ ｏｎ－ｓｈｏｒｅ ｒａｔｅ， ａｎｄ ａｎ ｏｆｆ－ｓｈｏｒｅ ｒａｔｅ． Ｉ run/own a company that does over 200 million in exports per year out of Thailand. This secondary market was inevetable with such a rule in place. Still I do not get it. Supposing it is possible to invest in THB denominated financial instruments outside Thailand , the 30% deposit rule is equivalent to a 1,5% per year(30% of 5% interest rate), but the difference between the two exchange rates is much more then that, being the on-shore steady at 35.80 and the off-shore fluctuating between 34.80/33.50 , that is 3/6% higher. Incoming money for payment of exports is not affected by the 30% rule, so there is no reason for foregneirs to buy THB abroad apart for currency speculation. And I really do not understand why they insist so much on buying THB , considering that the BOT could hold the 35.80 "peg" indefinitely. This is not like defending the currency in 97 when everyone wanted to sell it and Bot had to devaluate because it ended its foreign currency reserves. In this case the Bot can offer an unlimited amount of THB and build its foreign currency reserves up and up, same same as China has been doing for ten years. Why prefer the THB to PHP, INR,MYR....I really do not understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaudente Posted February 9, 2007 Share Posted February 9, 2007 (edited) for example, this chart shows THB appreciated about 10% to Malaysia Ringgit in one year...and the chart does not take into account the current "off-shore" rate of 9.57 ...that would be a further 3% Edited February 9, 2007 by Gaudente Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaudente Posted February 9, 2007 Share Posted February 9, 2007 Also against Philippine pesos the appreciation is about 10%...and again the chart does not show current off-shore rate of 1.445 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 "NDFs in BRL turned out to be a superdeal from 2001 till a year ago!"***** my venture into brazilian real estate was unfortunately not. i am lucky that BRL appreciated 60% vs. USD since i bought two building plots in Brazil otherwise i would sit on a big loss. due to bureaucratic procedures (brazilian embassy in Bangkok refuses to notarize our signatures on portuguese documents) both wife and me are forced to fly to Brazil today. just the tickets ~USD 14,800! Why didn't you go ecomony class then ? Tickets would be a fraction of the price you paid . If you choose to fly business or first class then you will pay more , but then again you obviously have too much money to spend $14800 on a pair of plane tickets. Must be nice to be rich ...? "rich" is a relative term my friend. sure, i am rich when comparing my net worth to that of my gardener but a beggar compared to Bill Gates or Prince Waleed bin Talal al-Saud. i am too stingy to fly first class as this is a real waste of money but i'll be damned to fly "backbencher class" half around the world with a net flying time of 29 hours spent in aircrafts plus another 10 hours sitting on cheap plastic chairs (OR STIING ON THE FLOOR!) waiting for connecting flights and not being able to use comfortable airline lounges where i can have a shower, shave, change underwear and eat and drink like in a two-star Michelin restaurant. my consolation for spending that kind of money is "if my wife and me don't fly business class now our heirs will fly first class the very first day after our cremation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 my consolation for spending that kind of money is "if my wife and me don't fly business class now our heirs will fly first class the very first day after our cremation. You're bl__dy right Doc.......you only live once. LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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