Stop Press ! Stop Press Baht Rises

[SamuiJens]

No, the problem is the THB is rising against the USD AND the GBP.

AND THE YEN, for god sake !!!

JA, the yen, who doesn't love the Yens?

Edited January 28, 2007 by SamuiJens

[Gaudente]

So the question is why the Baht? Why isn't the PHP or the MYR up 8% against the USD over the last 3 months?

Probably the objective is not making money, but to destroy Thailand export industry, sending the country back to an agrarian society (so the junta will be happy to see a "sufficiency economy" ). Who might be so angry with Thailand to waste so much money to achieve such a mean objective ? I guess Singapore has many good reasons to hold such a grudge. (Temasek- Shinawatra probe, and do not forget the 100 billion baht fine on ITV)

[sfokevin]

So the question is why the Baht? Why isn't the PHP or the MYR up 8% against the USD over the last 3 months?

Probably the objective is not making money, but to destroy Thailand export industry, sending the country back to an agrarian society (so the junta will be happy to see a "sufficiency economy" ). Who might be so angry with Thailand to waste so much money to achieve such a mean objective ? I guess Singapore has many good reasons to hold such a grudge. (Temasek- Shinawatra probe, and do not forget the 100 billion baht fine on ITV)

An even bigger shark in the water is China and they have the patience and the cash to crush the BOT... (They are the Walmart of Asia and designed to put small businesses OUT of business... It just good business )

Edited January 28, 2007 by sfokevin

[LaoPo]

An even bigger shark in the water is China and they have the patience and the cash to crush the BOT...

That's economical nonsense.

China has no benefit of crushing the BoT (or Baht). China, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and so on want their currencies to be low, not high. Whether that's justified by -our- Western standards remains to be seen.

Maybe some Thai are happy with the high Baht but it's real bad for the economical future of Thailand.

LaoPo

[sfokevin]

"That's economical nonsense"

I was not talking economics I was talking crush you business competitor ala Walmart style...

... China is not run by a bunch of Economists...

Edited January 28, 2007 by sfokevin

[cclub75]

"That's economical nonsense"

I was not talking economics I was talking crush you business competitor ala Walmart style...

Do you seriously believe that China needs a few more % of market shares in textile for instance, by stealing them from Thailand ? China's exports are increasing, even without that. They have to manage an already overheating economy.

Let's face it : the faith of Thailand is to become a colony of China, nothing more nothing less.

No need to crush a colony. Exploit it is enough...

However, if we really want to explore some conspiracy theory, linked to China for instance, I would suggest a political conspiracy :

-give a blow to thai economy, to weaken the junta, and prepare the return of a more "friendly" and less independant government... with a good and more "business orientated" leader like Mister Thaksin...

Edited January 28, 2007 by cclub75

[LaoPo]

Article from Bloomberg, just a little over 1 hour ago:

************************

"Thai Baht to Rally More After Reaching Decade High, Mellon Says

By Ye Xie and Min Zeng

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Thai baht, the world's best performing currency this year, will rally more as international investors increase purchases of local stocks after the lifting of martial law, according to Mellon Financial Corp.

The currency strengthened on Jan. 26 to as much as 32.98 baht per dollar, the strongest since 1997. It has increased 5.8 percent this year, after gaining almost 16 percent last year.

``There has been a relief among investors that the economic prospects are not hampered by political instability,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the foreign exchange group in Boston at Mellon Financial Corp. on Jan. 26. ``The outlook looks favorable for the baht.''

The interim government said on Jan. 26 that Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej endorsed the lifting of martial law from more than half of the country, including Bangkok. The central bank triggered a slump in local stocks, bonds and the currency last month when it imposed capital controls, then reversed some of the measures a day later.

Thailand has been under martial law since Sept. 19, when armed forces led by army chief Sondhi Boonyarataklin ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's government in a bloodless coup. Martial law gives the military powers to make arrests and conduct searches, as well as banning demonstrations.

The currency will rise to 32.50 baht per dollar in three months and increase to 32 per dollar by year-end, Shankar said.

`Beneficial to the Baht'

Overseas investors bought 508 million baht ($15.2 million) more of Thai stocks than they sold, the 12th straight day of net purchases, according to Stock Exchange of Thailand data released Jan. 26.

``The fundamentals are reasonably strong in Thailand. The currency is likely to remain firm,'' said Lawrence Goodman, a former U.S. Treasury official who's now a managing director of global emerging market foreign exchange strategy for Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``The relaxation of the restriction is certainly beneficial to the Thai baht.''

Thailand's economy will expand as much as 5 percent in 2007, driven by exports, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont said this month. Finance Minister Pridiyathorn Devakula on Jan. 18 said growth was ``at least 5 percent'' last year.

The Bank of Thailand will lift restrictions on foreign currency loans that are hedged for at least a year, the central bank Governor Tarisa Watanagase said.

Last Updated: January 28, 2007 12:00 EST

************************

LaoPo

[sfokevin]

It is an interesting coincidence that both Thaksin and the Baht are in exile...

Edited January 28, 2007 by sfokevin

[LaoPo]

Now, THIS is quite odd !

http://www.thaistockwatch.com/

" Dear Thai Stocks Friend!

As announced earlier, ThaiStockWatch.com is today, Monday 29th 2007, taken down for a major update.

We will be back today, Monday, 23 p.m. Thai time. [16 p.m. GMT]

If you want to make use of our soon-expiring free registration offer, please send a mail (no content needed) to [email protected] before we open the site again and we will get back to you.

Best regards,

The ThaiStockWatch Team,

Bangkok "

....

LaoPo

[cclub75]

Overseas investors bought 508 million baht ($15.2 million) more of Thai stocks than they sold, the 12th straight day of net purchases, according to Stock Exchange of Thailand data released Jan. 26.

His explanations are weirds.

January is... a small month for the stock market. Total turn over is average.

The net for foreigners in december was -31 billions (the SET plunges because BOT and capital control).

In january (until 26) it's +10 billions. Less than october. Same as september and even august...

So ?

http://www.set.or.th/set/investortype.do?l...&country=US

http://www.set.or.th/setresearch/frs_p1.html

MILLIONS of THB

TOTAL TURNOVER SET

Aug: 250 660

Sep: 250 660

Oct: 271 022

Nov: 271 022

Dec: 324 130

Jan (1-26) : 212 000

NET FOREIGN MONTHLY CUMULATIVE (Buy-sell)

Aug: 9 382

Sep: 10 883

Oct: 18 269

Nov: 2 605

Dec:-31 923

Jan (1-26) :10 456

[LPCustom69]

Basically what you're saying is to dump Bush and the rest of the thieving neo-cons? No bid overpriced contracts, funding a Bs war with with borrowed money, and making tax cuts for the wealthy at the same time. Oversimplification on my part, sure.

That's the point of the post: Thailand's baht is not rising; the dollar is falling. That decline has nothing to do with Dr. Tarisa and the loads of potentially soon to be worthless dollars amassed in the nation's coffers. Here's an excerpt from a piece on the current situation and, I'm sorry to say, doesn't mention Dr. Tarisa, international conspiracies, frying fish, or the American superpenis. However, on a side note, an internal US conspiracy to abandon the dollar and adopt a currency based upon the Euro for all of North America isn't so far-fetched is it? As we speak, Latin America is calling for a union of nations. In Africa, there already exists the AU. You and I are sitting in the ASEAN region. There are already a myriad of intra-national treaties in place between the US, Canada, and Mexico.

Anyhow, here's the excerpt:

Not only does the U.S. owe a net $3 trillion to foreigners, we now pay more in interest overseas than we collect from abroad. Foreigners hold $13 trillion in dollar assets that are at immediate and painful risk to any dollar weakness. Indeed, that volume of liquid assets is just about equal to the total GDP. A 30 percent drop in the dollar, could cost foreign investors an easy $3 trillion in lost purchasing power, not to mention the loss to U.S. citizens who own over $46 trillion in dollar net worth assets. Our leaders must find a way to lower the U.S. Trade Deficit, or risk the dollar losing its unique position as the World’s Reserve Currency. This fact alone warrants the trip to China.

America’s currency problem is a very sad day for the Republic. It used to be that the Federal Reserve policy was set simply with domestic economic policy in mind. In years past, we could virtually ignore the dollar in setting monetary policy because it was totally secure in its role as the World Reserve Currency. But today, because of our country’s profligate fiscal and over-easy monetary policies, the dollar has been undermined so much so that, sadly, it may be no more secure as a store of value than the citizens of Baghdad are, walking the streets.

The Federal Reserve must now be aware that the dollar has held its value on the world exchanges for two reasons: First, compared to the Euro, Yen, or Yuan, America has the highest interest rates by far. We pay carry traders to borrow in Yen at less than one percent and invest in U.S. assets, creating an artificial financial demand; Second, we have winked and have done nothing but talk as the Chinese, Japanese – and the rest of Asia – have manipulated their currencies down to rob America of its factories and keep consumers dumb and happy with artificially low interest rates, and excess consumption. All the while, the Asians have ended up with America’s money.

[LaoPo]

Overseas investors bought 508 million baht ($15.2 million) more of Thai stocks than they sold, the 12th straight day of net purchases, according to Stock Exchange of Thailand data released Jan. 26.

His explanations are weirds.

January is... a small month for the stock market. Total turn over is average.

The net for foreigners in december was -31 billions (the SET plunges because BOT and capital control).

In january (until 26) it's +10 billions. Less than october. Same as september and even august...

So ?

http://www.set.or.th/set/investortype.do?l...&country=US

http://www.set.or.th/setresearch/frs_p1.html

MILLIONS of THB

TOTAL TURNOVER SET

Aug: 250 660

Sep: 250 660

Oct: 271 022

Nov: 271 022

Dec: 324 130

Jan (1-26) : 212 000

NET FOREIGN MONTHLY CUMULATIVE (Buy-sell)

Aug: 9 382

Sep: 10 883

Oct: 18 269

Nov: 2 605

Dec:-31 923

Jan (1-26) :10 456

Yes, I saw the SET details already but I think it's not that weird since they say:

" Overseas investors bought 508 million baht ($15.2 million) more of Thai stocks than they sold, the 12th straight day of net purchases "

They're just bringing out all the good news, not the bad.

BUT: if you closer to the first link of the SET you can see that the % of the selling of the Local -Thai- Institutions is quite low (13.3%) in comparison the the % of sales of the private -Thai- Individuals.....(47 %!).

That means that the Institutions act 'cooler' than the private Individuals.

The buyers are the Foreigners.

But still, you're right: the volume is quite low, still.

LaoPo

[Virgil]

Thai Baht is getting stronger against most currencies.

This is starting to hit Isaan farmers right where it hurts. My wife's family run pig, cattle and rice farms. Most of what they produce gets sold to factories for packaging and export to China. 6 months ago they were selling around 100 pigs per month for 39bt per kilogram and grossing around 300,000bt. Since the strengthening of the Baht demand has gone down and last month they managed 52 pigs at 28bt per kg - grossing around 120,000bt. This has been reflected across all farm produce as the baht strengthens.

While they have enough feed to carry the extra stock for now, the reduced income has put all expansion and development on hold. My father-in-law said that if it is the same after Songkran then he's going to have to think about scaling down and further diversification.

Just 2 generations ago this family had nothing. They now have a wide variety of investments because they took the initiative to "farm like farangs". They now employ entire villages of people in several districts taking care of just about everything except poultry. If things continue as they are these people will lose their jobs.

Virgil, Out!

[LaoPo]

Thai Baht is getting stronger against most currencies.

This is starting to hit Isaan farmers right where it hurts. My wife's family run pig, cattle and rice farms. Most of what they produce gets sold to factories for packaging and export to China. 6 months ago they were selling around 100 pigs per month for 39bt per kilogram and grossing around 300,000bt. Since the strengthening of the Baht demand has gone down and last month they managed 52 pigs at 28bt per kg - grossing around 120,000bt. This has been reflected across all farm produce as the baht strengthens.

While they have enough feed to carry the extra stock for now, the reduced income has put all expansion and development on hold. My father-in-law said that if it is the same after Songkran then he's going to have to think about scaling down and further diversification.

Just 2 generations ago this family had nothing. They now have a wide variety of investments because they took the initiative to "farm like farangs". They now employ entire villages of people in several districts taking care of just about everything except poultry. If things continue as they are these people will lose their jobs.

Virgil, Out!

Exactly !

Your family-in-law is the tip of the iceberg, unfortunately.

The expensive Baht will hurt Thailand bad...very bad !

Wish you and your family good luck though !

LaoPo

[Paul MBMG]

Strengthening the Baht would create slow, medium to longer term difficulties for the economy; the effects on exports would gradually have more effect. Currency crises are more normally related to the collapse in value of a country's currency, which, like in Thailand in 1997 (or in Germany at the end of the Weimar Republic) when the Baht moved away from the articially fixed rate of 25:1 created short term instability and crisis because of the huge sudden real losses incurred (ask anyone who had a foreign currency loan or needed to buy imports at that time).Therefore I think that it's unlikley that this politically motivated - it's a source of discomfort to the current administration for sure and I'm sure their oppoennts are enjoying it but I don't ever remember any government being ousted because of the strength of its currency - usually that's touted as a sympton of economic success.

There's always been a discrepancy between onshore and offshore - a lot of the statements quoted on here are slightly hysterical. Check the retail Forex rates of Nationwide, HSBC offshore etc for the last few months and you'll find that these were around 65 when Thai banks were offering 70 even before the coup. In Thailand baht spreads are regulated (maximum of 75 Satang to the Dollar if I remember right). This is appropriate because of teh liquidity and traded volums. Offshore banks can charge whatever spread they choose - and this si where some of the ideas about stuffing suitcases with Baht fall down. HSBC might be quoting that they'll give you THB 65 for every Pound that you give to them BUT you'll have to give them something like THB 76 before they'll give you back a Pound. Baht is thinly traded offshore hence higher spreads, higher volatility etc.

The main value of the offshore rate is as an indicator. For some time (while Baht was 37/38, we forecasted an onshiore rate in 2007 that broke through the 34 level - that's not unreasonable because of the inherent weakness of the USD. We also felt that baht would generally move in line with GBP & AUD unless those currencies suffered big falls if their property markets fell back suddenly and that Baht would weaken against Euro.) When it comes to currencies, we make our assessments based on fundamentals and then give our opinions (remember we're only talking about people's opinions here - no-one has a crystal ball, so don't rely on any single source!) whereas traders make theirs based on short term momentum.

The speculators are believed to be hedge funds (the big inflows were the bond markets where the lack of any other factors makes this a cleaner play for them than equity markets) but we're also now seeing a return of equity invetsment capital that fled when the markets plunged last month and also there wa a hiatus in FDI following the 30% rule which also is now flooding back.

All in all, sounds like the adminsitration are handling things pretty well!!

[reddevil_06510]

Overseas investors bought 508 million baht ($15.2 million) more of Thai stocks than they sold, the 12th straight day of net purchases, according to Stock Exchange of Thailand data released Jan. 26.

His explanations are weirds.

January is... a small month for the stock market. Total turn over is average.

The net for foreigners in december was -31 billions (the SET plunges because BOT and capital control).

In january (until 26) it's +10 billions. Less than october. Same as september and even august...

So ?

http://www.set.or.th/set/investortype.do?l...&country=US

http://www.set.or.th/setresearch/frs_p1.html

MILLIONS of THB

TOTAL TURNOVER SET

Aug: 250 660

Sep: 250 660

Oct: 271 022

Nov: 271 022

Dec: 324 130

Jan (1-26) : 212 000

NET FOREIGN MONTHLY CUMULATIVE (Buy-sell)

Aug: 9 382

Sep: 10 883

Oct: 18 269

Nov: 2 605

Dec:-31 923

Jan (1-26) :10 456

Yes, I saw the SET details already but I think it's not that weird since they say:

" Overseas investors bought 508 million baht ($15.2 million) more of Thai stocks than they sold, the 12th straight day of net purchases "

They're just bringing out all the good news, not the bad.

BUT: if you closer to the first link of the SET you can see that the % of the selling of the Local -Thai- Institutions is quite low (13.3%) in comparison the the % of sales of the private -Thai- Individuals.....(47 %!).

That means that the Institutions act 'cooler' than the private Individuals.

The buyers are the Foreigners.

But still, you're right: the volume is quite low, still.

LaoPo

Seriously, the SET volume is low and the percentage of free-float stocks in most companies is very low as well.

There are probably 7 causes to the recent round of appreciation:

1) Weakness in the USD, but this does not explain the rise against other currencies.

2) Local trading partners/competitors strengthening their positions through the THB to hedge against weakness in other currencies. A by-product of this is it will help to keep your currency low in comparison.

3) Large Thai firms re-patriating profits from overseas

4) Local players seeking to manipulate the Baht for their own financial gain or politcal agenda... this is a dangerous game as very few players have the deep pockets to pursue this strategy unless they have inside knowledge of a country that is pursuing number 2

5) Speculation by institution investors trying to either push the BoT to tighten the controls or to see how far they can run it up before the camel's back is broken.

6) Maybe the SET, but more likely would be the debt markets... but this is a risky stratgey given current political and business situations.

7) BoT has changed its policy and will follow a less managed approach, also unlikely given that Thailand is an export driven economy as benefits from cheap Baht.

What I am most curious about is the silence of the local Thai press over the weekend, while not surpising, it will be interesting to see how long they can remain quite and how long the BoT can manage this spread in on-shore and off-shore rates.

Correct me if I am wrong, most trade through L/C would be done using the off-shore rate as the buyer will open the L/C at their local branch not the suppliers local branch.

[cutter007]

The US economy isn't bad at all right now. The weakening dollar is helping to lower the deficits and helps with US exports and inbound tourism. So it ain't that simple. Seems to me the current baht move is more about the Chinese Yuan.

The Yuan is pegged to the dollar, so therefore your comments aren't logical.

[cutter007]

I　ａｍ　ｇｏｉｎｇ　ｔｏ　ｔｒｙ　ａｎｄ　ｍａｋｅ　ｔｈｉｓ　ｓｉｍｐｌｅ　ｆｏｒ　ｅｖｅｒｙｏｎｅ　ｔｈａｔ　ｄｏｅｓｎ’ｔ　ｋｎｏｗ　ｔｈａｔ　ｍｕｃｈ　ａｂｏｕｔ　ｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｓ．

Ｂｅｃａｕｓｅ　ｔｈｅｒｅ　ｉｓ　ａ　ｒｕｌｅ　ｔｈａｔ　ｙｏｕ　ｎｅｅｄ　ｔｏ　ｐａｙ　ａ　３０％　ｄｅｐｏｓｉｔ　ｆｏｒ　Ｔｈａｉ　ｂａｈｔ　ｎｏｗ (in Thailand)，　ｔｈｉｓ　ｈａｓ　ｃａｕｓｅｓ　ｔｈｅ　ｖａｌｕｅ　ｏｆ　ｔｈｅ　ｂａｈｔ　ａｌｒｅａｄｙ　ｏｕｔｓｉｄｅ　ｔｈｅ　ｃｏｕｎｔｒｙ　ｔｏ　ｂｅｃｏｍｅ　ｍｏｒｅ　ｖａｌｕａｂｌｅ，　ｔｈｕｓ　ｙｏｕ　ｈａｖｅ　ｔｗｏ　ｍａｒｋｅｔ　ｒａｔｅｓ　ｎｏｗ　ａｎ　ｏｎ－ｓｈｏｒｅ　ｒａｔｅ，　ａｎｄ　ａｎ　ｏｆｆ－ｓｈｏｒｅ　ｒａｔｅ．

Ｉ run/own a company that does over 200 million in exports per year out of Thailand.

This secondary market was inevetable with such a rule in place.

[Robbie Dye]

oanda says 35.15

Now showing GBP 65.41 and USD 33.38

This is getting VERY dangerous

[backflip]

"The Yuan is pegged to the dollar..."

Not anymore, it is not. The Chinese government abolished the fixed exchange rate to the USD in July, 2006. The Chinese government is allowing the yuan-to-dollar exchange rate some leeway, allowing it to become progressive stronger - something the US desires. The appreciation has been minimal, perhaps 3-4%. However, since I'm paid in Yuan (aka "RMB", and "CNY"), I couldn't be happier.

[billaaa777]

And then you make gross, ill-informed assumptions, such as talking about the BOT's dual-rate policy. Is there an official policy? What basis do you have for knowing there is an intentional policy there?

Whether there is an official policy or not, the facts do not change. There is a huge gap in the international exchange rate and the domestic exchange rate. Next, I find it impossible to come to any other conclusion that this gap is a direct result of the BOT’s interference in the free markets, their total lack of understand the consequences of their action and their attempt to prop of one segment of the economy (the exporters) at the expense of the others.

After all, the management of the BOT is the same group that caused the largest single day drop in the history of the Thai stock market, and then reversed their decision the next day. I will never forget their quote, “We did not realize international investors would react that way.” Well, after you tell an investor they can only invest 70% of the money they deposit in their account and the rest needs to be in an interest free account. Just exactly how did you think they would react?

[twix38]

So how am I receiving a rate of 69.9741 TODAY, inside Thailand, when withdrawing funds out from a UK bank via an ATM in Thailand? This is an online UK account with an ATM associated card for withdrawing currency worldwide from my UK, GBP account.

Surely the UK Bank should be giving me the offshore rate of 65/66 and not 69/70 as they are?

Does anyone really know what is going on as it seems not.

[MartinBKK]

So how am I receiving a rate of 69.9741 TODAY, inside Thailand, when withdrawing funds out from a UK bank via an ATM in Thailand? This is an online UK account with an ATM associated card for withdrawing currency worldwide from my UK, GBP account.

Surely the UK Bank should be giving me the offshore rate of 65/66 and not 69/70 as they are?

Does anyone really know what is going on as it seems not.

Which bank is that with? Has anyone withdrawn using the Nationwide ATM card today and if so can you publish the rate you got.

Thanks.

[gdhm]

So how am I receiving a rate of 69.9741 TODAY, inside Thailand, when withdrawing funds out from a UK bank via an ATM in Thailand? This is an online UK account with an ATM associated card for withdrawing currency worldwide from my UK, GBP account.

Surely the UK Bank should be giving me the offshore rate of 65/66 and not 69/70 as they are?

Does anyone really know what is going on as it seems not.

I agree.

I removed 5000 baht from my UK Nationwide current account by ATM debit around 13:00 Thai time. It cost me 71.45 GBP an Exchange rate of 69.979.

Until a few days ago whatever http://www.xe.com/ucc/ showed, Nationwide was very close. Now they are totally out of sync. xe.xcom is showing 66.6272 now (16:30 Thai time) and was around that figure before I went out to withdraw.

Clearly all is not as simply explained here (2 rates) otherwise Nationwide and xe.com would still be close as they always have been.

Now I have no idea where to look to see what I can expect if I deduct form my UK account. I will have to ask them which site is close to what they use. (they do not seem to publish rates as does Bangkok Bank and Kasikorn (to name 2).

Regards, Dave

[twix38]

It is with the Nationwide Bulding Society as mentioned by others here.

It was this morning.

I would be interested from some of the supposedly clever posters, why I get this rate. Does anyone want to try to answer the underlying question(s) as most (all) of the expert advice here would suggest that this should not happen (i.e. getting an onshore rate from an offshore building society)?

Perhaps you are all giving a bum steer on your interpretation as reality is somewhat different from my above experience??

So how am I receiving a rate of 69.9741 TODAY, inside Thailand, when withdrawing funds out from a UK bank via an ATM in Thailand? This is an online UK account with an ATM associated card for withdrawing currency worldwide from my UK, GBP account.

Surely the UK Bank should be giving me the offshore rate of 65/66 and not 69/70 as they are?

Does anyone really know what is going on as it seems not.

Which bank is that with? Has anyone withdrawn using the Nationwide ATM card today and if so can you publish the rate you got.

Thanks.

Edited January 29, 2007 by twix38

[reddevil_06510]

So how am I receiving a rate of 69.9741 TODAY, inside Thailand, when withdrawing funds out from a UK bank via an ATM in Thailand? This is an online UK account with an ATM associated card for withdrawing currency worldwide from my UK, GBP account.

Surely the UK Bank should be giving me the offshore rate of 65/66 and not 69/70 as they are?

Does anyone really know what is going on as it seems not.

I agree.

I removed 5000 baht from my UK Nationwide current account by ATM debit around 13:00 Thai time. It cost me 71.45 GBP an Exchange rate of 69.979.

Until a few days ago whatever http://www.xe.com/ucc/ showed, Nationwide was very close. Now they are totally out of sync. xe.xcom is showing 66.6272 now (16:30 Thai time) and was around that figure before I went out to withdraw.

Clearly all is not as simply explained here (2 rates) otherwise Nationwide and xe.com would still be close as they always have been.

Now I have no idea where to look to see what I can expect if I deduct form my UK account. I will have to ask them which site is close to what they use. (they do not seem to publish rates as does Bangkok Bank and Kasikorn (to name 2).

Regards, Dave

You have to remember that the banks are adding their own spreads and fees into the mix. Also, the ATM you use to withdraw is it always from the same bank. While I am not an expert on this, I would assume your are getting the Thai Banks rate as you are using their money.

[monch]

BBC Market data is showing

GBP 66.63

USD 35.87

I know these are offshore rates but how does the usd seem to have recovered and the pound hasnt???

[twix38]

You have to remember that the banks are adding their own spreads and fees into the mix. Also, the ATM you use to withdraw is it always from the same bank. While I am not an expert on this, I would assume your are getting the Thai Banks rate as you are using their money.

Would a UK bank be converting Thai Baht at a non-uk applied rate? I wouldn't expect the Nationwide to allow conversion rates to be applied in Thailand or to use the onshore Thai rate themselves?

However, if this is so, then apart from a future devalaution we should fairly reasonably assume that a rate of around 70 Baht to the Pound is pretty good and withdraw on a daily basis? Not saying I would as there are clearly stability and political factors to take into account, as well as any possible devaluation, when foreign money would receive a more favourable rate due to any devaluation.

However, one thing is crystal clear. I can get (at least through a Thai ATM, debiting a UK bank account) a rate of nearly 70 today and this has previously not been made clear or highlighted. Rather it has been assumed not to be the case when reading previous information about what's happening and onshore and offshore rates!!

Edited January 29, 2007 by twix38

[gdhm]

So how am I receiving a rate of 69.9741 TODAY, inside Thailand, when withdrawing funds out from a UK bank via an ATM in Thailand? This is an online UK account with an ATM associated card for withdrawing currency worldwide from my UK, GBP account.

Surely the UK Bank should be giving me the offshore rate of 65/66 and not 69/70 as they are?

Does anyone really know what is going on as it seems not.

I agree.

I removed 5000 baht from my UK Nationwide current account by ATM debit around 13:00 Thai time. It cost me 71.45 GBP an Exchange rate of 69.979.

Until a few days ago whatever http://www.xe.com/ucc/ showed, Nationwide was very close. Now they are totally out of sync. xe.xcom is showing 66.6272 now (16:30 Thai time) and was around that figure before I went out to withdraw.

Clearly all is not as simply explained here (2 rates) otherwise Nationwide and xe.com would still be close as they always have been.

Now I have no idea where to look to see what I can expect if I deduct form my UK account. I will have to ask them which site is close to what they use. (they do not seem to publish rates as does Bangkok Bank and Kasikorn (to name 2).

Regards, Dave

You have to remember that the banks are adding their own spreads and fees into the mix. Also, the ATM you use to withdraw is it always from the same bank. While I am not an expert on this, I would assume your are getting the Thai Banks rate as you are using their money.

Hi,

I use whatever leading Thai bank ATM is convenient at the time not only one.

Nationwide openly boast that they do NOT charge commission or fees on debits to their Flex current account.

I have ALWAYS found during the last 9 months that Nationwide is VERY close to xe.com rates. (now they are out of sync by 3 baht per 1GBP). I have asked NW about differences today (will take 3 days to get answer).

I have to be honest, normally NW are closer to xe.com than they are to the rates offered by the Bangkok and Kasikorn banks (although still pretty close). I feel NW are not using the the Thai banks rates but THEIRS. NW rates are never identical to Bangkok Bank's or Kasikorn's and as I said they are always (until 4 days ago) virtually the same as xe.com (I put down the tiny differences to time difference of me looking up the xe.com rate on my PC and getting to an ATM 30 mins or so later.

As I said previously NW and xe.com REALLY were very very close to each other until a few days ago.

Regards, Dave

[TRIPxCORE]

Yes I will complete my puchase, but when we signed the agreement the baht was at 38. ###### who would have thunk????

Who would have thunk? Well, me. I predicted 1-2 years ago in this very forum these moves we have seen from the Thai Baht recently. I invest heavily in forex so I pay attention to whatever in the world will make currencies fluctuate and have done quite well. The writing was all over the wall on this one.

That doesn't mean you can't be educated and play the odds or read the signs. There were many signs it would move to this range for a while.

100% correct sir.

The US economy isn't bad at all right now. The weakening dollar is helping to lower the deficits and helps with US exports and inbound tourism. So it ain't that simple. Seems to me the current baht move is more about the Chinese Yuan.

I beg to differ. The U.S. economy is not doing well at all and hasn't been for quite a while now. This is why most of my money has been out of USD since 2002 even though I live in the U.S. Current Baht movements against USD are because of fundemental U.S. weakness vs. fundemental Thai strength.

Most of you are way late to the party here. All these forex moves were discussed in here ad nauseum 1-2 years ago like I said. While I predicted this was going to happen I had people telling me then that I didn't know what I was talking about. Who is having the last laugh now?