SPECIAL REPORT: Reform a failure, but junta’s grip still strong

[webfact]

SPECIAL REPORT: Reform a failure, but junta’s grip still strong

By JINTANA PANYAARVUDH 
SUPALAK GANJANAKHUNDEE 
THE NATION

 

 

WITH BOTH TROOPS AND POLITICIANS FIRMLY BEHIND HIM, PRAYUT FACES FEW CHALLENGES TO HIS LONG-TERM VISION FOR THAILAND
 

THAILAND, after four years of junta rule, is at a historic crossroads. Opinion in the country is divided between those who want the military to retain its hold on power and those who want to send them back to the barracks.

 

 

While new political parties have spawned to back General Prayut Chan-o-cha becoming prime minister after the election, many people are adamant that the coup-maker and his military apparatus must now quit politics altogether.

 

The junta has exploited all means to lengthen its stay in power, but the popularity of its leaders, notably Prayut himself, is now in visible decline. Reform agendas have failed to yield positive results over the four years, either for desperately needed social reconciliation or for an ailing economy.

 

Reform has done nothing to alter the country’s lopsided distribution of wealth. Multiple polls have indicated that the government’s economic management has not delivered results, especially for medium- to low-income groups.

 

On the other hand, the rich appear to be getting richer, thanks to an uneven distribution of economic growth that has averaged nearly 4 percentage points per annum since 2014.

 

Big business, export-oriented industries, tourism and its related businesses were among the major beneficiaries of economic expansion during this period.

 

Farmers, in contrast, have been hurt by relatively low market prices for their produce over the past few years, leaving most unimpressed by government measures and economic management.

 

Economists see some improvement during the term of the junta-backed government but are disappointed at the paucity of its major economic reforms.

 

 

The government’s economic tsar Somkid Jatusripitak has defended his course, saying last week that GDP growth that rose to 4.8 per cent in the first quarter of this year has built added momentum for the country’s reform push. Deputy PM Somkid refrained from talking about inequality and failure of wealth distribution, instead blaming political movements for interrupting economic growth.

 

Reforms in education and health have suffered a similar fate, with few if any benefits felt by the people. Though there has been no drastic change to the health system under four years of National Council for Peace and Order rule, experts predict that universal coverage is set to be scrapped so that only the poorest people are covered.

 

Despite all this, Prayut has retained a level of support even in the Northeast, a red-shirt stronghold. Here, the military has been clever enough to recruit from among low-income rural families, winning their loyalty by providing livelihoods, says Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of political science at the region’s Ubon Ratchathani University.

 

“Except for the anti-coup hardcore, many people [in the region] don’t really hate Prayut although sentiment in the social media is very strong against him,” said Titipol, citing informal research he conducted in Ubon Ratchathani and neighbouring Yasothon and Amnat Charoen.

 

Some government policies, such as the rice price guarantee, had benefited the locals, he added.

 

Military withdrawal?

 

Paul Chambers, a lecturer at Naresuan University, identifies three scenarios which could see the military withdraw from politics:

First, a counter-coup leading to new junta leaders who allow constitutional changes for more pluralistic democracy, along with an election sooner rather than later.

 

Second, a repeat of 1992’s Black May massacre of peaceful civilian demonstrators, which would tarnish the image of the junta and unite the public in favour of a return to genuine democracy.

 

Third, a traditional institution demanding immediate democratic reforms. Chambers did not elaborate on this point.

 

Concerning the possibility of a counter-coup, Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, said Prayut now enjoyed overwhelming support among the military after a decade of building up its strength. Crucially, that time has also been spent cementing a chain of command, beginning with General Anupong Paochinda’s three-year tenure as Army chief and followed by Prayut’s four years in the job and then another four as prime minister, he said. Since then all three Army chiefs – generals Udomdej Sitabutr, Teerachai Nakwanich and Chalermchai Sitthisart – have been subordinates of Prayut, he added.

 

“I believe Prayut has already scrutinised his successors’ records to check whether he can trust them,” Wanwichit said. “So Prayut now has complete control over the military.”

 

Prayut’s prospects also look strong on the political front, where many of the major political parties are ready to incorporate the junta’s strategy to consolidate military power. That leaves just a few newly launched parties, along with factions in the Pheu Thai and Democrat parties, plus a tiny group of pro-democracy activists, as the only challengers to a military seeking to extend its control over the country far into the future.

 

This is The Nation’s last article in a special series analysing the impact of the 2014 coup.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30346566

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-05-30

[Cadbury]

35 minutes ago, webfact said:

Big business, export-oriented industries, tourism and its related businesses were among the major beneficiaries of economic expansion during this period.

The monks, the corruption experts within the civil service and the politicians and their cronies were also among other notable beneficiaries over the last four years. The country people and farmers don't have the same opportunities as this bunch to line their pockets. 

PM Prayut has been one huge failure. He has had great opportunities to make positive economic social changes but has let the people and the Country down. The money he has wasted since he has been in power must be staggering. Health and education has suffered the most.

[Samui Bodoh]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

WITH BOTH TROOPS AND POLITICIANS FIRMLY BEHIND HIM, PRAYUT FACES FEW CHALLENGES TO HIS LONG-TERM VISION FOR THAILAND

While there is some truth to the quoted statement, there is a glaring omission; it does NOT say that the people are with him and by all accounts they are not. And, despite the views held by many, I believe that matters, and matters greatly.

 

Without the people behind the leader of a country, there is and always will be limited progress available to be made.

 

A country is like a family or a small business writ large; a family where its members are loved, respected and treated well will thrive and likewise a small business where the employees feel that they are part of a team and share successes will succeed and grow. Does anyone believe that Thailand currently is a place where the Thai people feel like they are part of the proverbial team? Or that Thai people sense that Prayut and his cronies are truly looking out for them?

 

Does anyone think that the Thai people are united and looking outward proudly to the future with confidence, vigor and determination?

 

1 hour ago, webfact said:

The junta has exploited all means to lengthen its stay in power, but the popularity of its leaders, notably Prayut himself, is now in visible decline. Reform agendas have failed to yield positive results over the four years, either for desperately needed social reconciliation or for an ailing economy.

The Junta was accepted, I believe, previously as the Thai people were content to have them in power to oversee the Funeral and Mourning; fair play to them it was handled well. However, that was likely the last time that the Junta saw any increase in support, and since then it has slowly declined. Further, the recruitment of the 'old-style', corrupt  politicians, after launching a coup against 'old-style', corrupt politicians, was a strategic blunder in my view; you cannot claim to be anything different or 'reform-minded' if you practice the same old things. Finally, they simply have not delivered meaningful reforms; few if any Thais see significant reforms, but rather (as the article notes) see acts and laws designed to ensure that the Junta itself stays in power.

 

To sum up, as a reform entity, the Junta has not been successful.

 

Will they stay in power? I don't believe so, but it is uncertain exactly how they will be removed. I think there is a very good chance that they will be voted out if the election is free and fair enough (it'll never be truly free and fair, but see Burma and Malaysia). Failing that, a scenario such as 1992 is very possible. Ultimately, I think the Junta will be forced out as they simply do not have the wide-spread support from the Thai people that a government, any government needs; I only hope that the means by which they go do not cause too much disruption.

 

 

Edited May 29, 2018 by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

[YetAnother]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Reform agendas have failed to yield positive results over the four years, either for desperately needed social reconciliation or for an ailing economy.

what does the word 'reform' mean anymore ? this country , in desperate need of it, what we thought it used to mean, has made the word meaningless

[yellowboat]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Prayut’s prospects also look strong on the political front

If that be true, Thailand has the government it deserves then. 

[RichardColeman]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

The government’s economic tsar Somkid Jatusripitak has defended his course, saying last week that GDP growth that rose to 4.8 per cent in the first quarter of this year has built added momentum for the country’s reform push.

[Darcula]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

On the other hand, the rich appear to be getting richer

 

Sounds like the real reforms are going along rather nicely.

[Anak Nakal]

Prayut say do good reform.

Prayut not do good reform.

If not do good reform,

You go!

[tigerrrheart]

Thankfully, PM Prayut is not like Trump at all.

Thai people ought to be happy with this as you will never be a laughing stock to other countries. 

????

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

“So Prayut now has complete control over the military.”

That may be tenuous in the long run.

The Thai military is divided into two factions: Burapha Phayak (Tiger of the East that includes Gen Prayut and Prawit) and Wong Thewan (Divine Lineage). In the last ten years the BP has been the dominant political face of the Thai military and principle in several military coups.

 

However, in the recent military reshuffle and promotions list there may have been a small inroad to challenge BP. Among the WT promotions is Maj Gen Narongphan Jitkaewthae promoted to First Army Deputy Commander that qualifies him for nomination to First Army Commander in October; and Maj Gen Songwit Nunphakdi promoted to head the First Division King's Guard that is attached to the First Army.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30340966

I suspect that should Prayut stay in power beyond early next year, continue to create civil chaos and underperform economic goals, the power shift towards the WT faction may accelerate. The ultimate result might be another military coup by the end of 2019.

[jesimps]

1 hour ago, tigerrrheart said:

Thankfully, PM Prayut is not like Trump at all.

Thai people ought to be happy with this as you will never be a laughing stock to other countries. 

????

I don't think the US, it's president and people are a laughing stock. As for Mr P and his cronies I reserve my opinion.

[marko kok prong]

It does not really matter who is in charge the huge ingrained corruption will never go away,it seems everyone has their hand in the till,civil servants,monks,Police. Sit down with a group of Thai's what is the number one topic of conversation,money and how they can get more,i rest my case ,M'lud.

[Media1]

Proporganda article fake news. Thai people are desperate to vote NO. The Nation lol. What rubbish. The only grip they have is on the police and threats of jail with a corrupt unreformed law.system...Prayut is done..Game over.

[Media1]

10 minutes ago, marko kok prong said:

It does not really matter who is in charge the huge ingrained corruption will never go away,it seems everyone has their hand in the till,civil servants,monks,Police. Sit down with a group of Thai's what is the number one topic of conversation,money and how they can get more,i rest my case ,M'lud.

Disagree Future foward is the answer

[neeray]

1 hour ago, tigerrrheart said:

Thankfully, PM Prayut is not like Trump at all.

Thai people ought to be happy with this as you will never be a laughing stock to other countries. 

????

Agreed. Trump does not sing. He is too busy lying. And of course, Prayut would never lie. Neither would his deputy. 

[trainman34014]

1 hour ago, tigerrrheart said:

Thankfully, PM Prayut is not like Trump at all.

Thai people ought to be happy with this as you will never be a laughing stock to other countries. 

????

You're a bit behind the news in the real world.  Thailand has been a laughing stock of the Western World and in some Neighbouring Countries for a very long time !

[Media1]

1 minute ago, neeray said:

Agreed. Trump does not sing. He is too busy lying. And of course, Prayut would never lie. Neither would his deputy. 

His worse and in western country would have a blocked view of the sun

[Media1]

1 minute ago, trainman34014 said:

You're a bit behind the news in the real world.  Thailand has been a laughing stock of the Western World and in some Neighbouring Countries for a very long time !

Correct tender Sir

[holy cow cm]

Is that a real story? Fabrication? Hard to read... 

[humbug]

viva the revolution

 

these treasonous people who took over an administration of a country from an elected legal administration should all be in jail.

[tigerrrheart]

On 5/30/2018 at 12:01 PM, trainman34014 said:

You're a bit behind the news in the real world.  Thailand has been a laughing stock of the Western World and in some Neighbouring Countries for a very long time !

I chose to live in Thailand and not the over-rated western countries.