Where Have All The Yankees Gone?

[Jingthing]

Did you actually read the article that made you start this thread? It said there is a possibility it could get that low. Possibility is a very big word. Not a sure thing. Don't get all financial armageddon on the baht/dollar rate yet.

Yes, I did read it. We are talking about possibilities. Can you deny the dollar has already been trashed against the baht? So it is certainly possible it can continue. The thread is about what would happen specifically to American expats (mostly the ones dependent on dollar assets or income) and it is quite obvious in such a scenario many would leave.

Musing on hypotheticals in the future when there is credible evidence the events could happen is legit in my book. Example, the long term effects of global warming.

BTW, loved your "henny, penny, the sky is falling" reference. Are you a Donald Rumsfeld fan or something. That was what he was always saying about the Iraq war critics. It turned out the sky WAS falling there!

Edited February 1, 2007 by Jingthing

[terry57]

Yes, I agree with what has been said. I came here when the baht was 25/$ and found it a remarkably inexpensive country to live in. At 35/$ it is still inexpensive. I will not be moving to another cheap country - I love Thailand!

its amazing isn't it mate.

a few days ago they were going on about how xenophobic los was and they were going to leave.

before that it was the new visa laws and that was going to make them leave.

now there going on about how the US dollar is going to crash and that will make them leave.

well, i got to tell you boys,

us fella's are going to have an even better time in los when all the nay sayers leave town. :D

bye bye punters .

[Peterpan]

Yes, I agree with what has been said. I came here when the baht was 25/$ and found it a remarkably inexpensive country to live in. At 35/$ it is still inexpensive. I will not be moving to another cheap country - I love Thailand!

its amazing isn't it mate.

a few days ago they were going on about how xenophobic los was and they were going to leave.

before that it was the new visa laws and that was going to make them leave.

now there going on about how the US dollar is going to crash and that will make them leave.

well, i got to tell you boys,

us fella's are going to have an even better time in los when all the nay sayers leave town. :D

bye bye punters . :bah:

Its the same at work, If this or that happens Im leaving this job

URR

Two years later they are still there, saying Im leaving this Job

The pound is stable for now, the Euro is getting back in line to Feb 2002 when it came in and the $ is Fcuked

the THB is stable

Feb 2002 the dollar has been declining all the time its was 1.41 to a pound

October 2002, 1 pound = 68.1 Thb 1 Pound = $, 1.57

October 2002, 1 $ = 43.4 Thb 1 $ = E, 0,98,

October 2002, 1 Euro = 41.2 Thb 1 Euro = 0,627 pounds

Feb 2007 1 pound = 68.2 Thb 1 pound = $ 1.96

Feb 2007 1 $ = 34.8 Thb 1 $ = E 1.29

Feb 2007 1 Euro = 45.21 Thb 1 Euro = 0.66 pounds

[Lucifer]

At 19 or 20 Baht to the Dollar I would be on the street selling Som Tam!

Selling Sam Tam in Thailand is still better than living in the US.

As for money wasted on Iraq. Not true. Millions of barrels of Oil comes out of Iraq.

where do you think the money goes?

[lingyai]

Just under 2 years to go before USA starts to turn the ship around...

Gore/Obama '08

[terry57]

i have a very good idea punters,

why dont we have a real nice time in the mighty los and just go with the flow until the earth falls beneath us.

after all is said and done, thats why we come to thailand.

[steveromagnino]

Just under 2 years to go before USA starts to turn the ship around...

Gore/Obama '08

I think the jokes and riddles forum is a few down from general :-)

[smartecosse]

nah, some of them thought the grass was greener here

[skipvice]

i have a very good idea punters,

why dont we have a real nice time in the mighty los and just go with the flow until the earth falls beneath us.

after all is said and done, thats why we come to thailand.

I totaly agree just go with the flow, if we want to live in los we do not have a choice

[Jingthing]

As for money wasted on Iraq. Not true. Millions of barrels of Oil comes out of Iraq.

where do you think the money goes?

You are joking, right?

[Sakeopete]

This may be a dumb question, but if the worlds largest economy currency were to crash where would Asia find a market to sell there goods? What would happen to their currencies?

[PeaceBlondie]

As a "Yankee expat" (we Texans don't call ourselves that ), I'll start hurting if the rate goes below 30:1 for very long. But I can run back into those hot Thai classrooms with 51 students and one soi dog, if I absolutely have to, to make up for the currency exchange loss to my pensions.

There are reasonable explanations why the US$ is weak, but not reasonable excuses for the baht to be as strong as it is. If the rise in the baht's value isn't based on fundamentals, it's caused by speculators, who are a most fickle folk, who will grab their profits and run away when they wish. The baht could rebound to 40:1 at any time.

[meom]

This may be a dumb question, but if the worlds largest economy currency were to crash where would Asia find a market to sell there goods? What would happen to their currencies?

They have enough people to sell in their own market I suppose.

[NovaBlue05]

This may be a dumb question, but if the worlds largest economy currency were to crash where would Asia find a market to sell there goods? What would happen to their currencies?

They have enough people to sell in their own market I suppose.

There are lots of markets with 300 million overspending consumers out there to take up the slack. Barely a blip on the radar

[Khun ?]

I would like to know where they will dump all the U.S. debt they have invested in.

last quarter 06 foreign buying of U.S. debt was up a bit.

I'll sure be waiting to buy $100 bonds for $50 and to think they are buying this debt with

the lowest return on investment ever.

How many countries have ever accomplished a whole

lot by cheap labor and corruption alone. You might look at population, resources, infastructure and other long term effects a bit more. Global warming may have a bit of these ice slides of 10K years ago

bring some Canadian assets a bit more south. Wonder what coal in 50 years will be doing, the U.S.

has over 200 years of reserves. How much does Asia or Europe have?

Too many issues that will have world effects not to mention Thailands vast supply of fresh water

for all the population growth they have been so willing to accept in recent years. Guess they will just wait on better rain patterns to appear. For sure there will be a squeaky wheel somewhere in the world all the time.

Predicting it has never been many of whom write about it strong points. They would be to rich and

enjoying life if they were to inform us peons in life. Kind of like many that will work for little in third world countries telling others how to invest, but didn't do so well themselves.

Edited February 1, 2007 by Khun ?

[liberty9133]

The amount of dollars in reserves in central banks throughout the world is in multiple trillions. China alone has over one trillion and growing at the rate of, at minimum, 1/2 trillion annually. The world enjoys this largesse, this over consumption on our part. Enjoys? Yes. for without the American appetite for material things, the world economies would be much the worse off.

I, for one, would prefer that it were not so. However, it is so and the world must deal with it. I personally believe that this was planned by the big players, including China. The reason I think so is that China for years pleaded with the US to give it MFN Status(most favored nation) for its imports to US. Immediately upon granting of MFN, the Chinese began to sell goods to USA and loan money at aridiculous clip to just about anyone who could start a manufacturing company. Soon thereafter, without typical chinese hesitation, they bought our Treasury notes. The Chinese wouldn't have done any of that without US and European help and guarantees.

Other posts have indicated that the world won't let the dollar slide preciptously. The world is at this point and for the forseeable future dependent on a robust American economy. And a willingness of Americans to prostitute themselves to get more and more goods at abnormally(for Americans) low prices. If any facet of this trade equation is severely interrupted, the world economy could well spin out of control. If the US decides to abandon its inflation control policy and allow the dollar to inflate, it would render worthless all those reserves. If just one central banksdecides to liquidate its dollar holdings, the whole house of cards could fall, resulting in a worldwide depression. If China refuses to let up on its relentless puruit of economic world domination, the US will take actions on its own that could result in worldwide economic disruption, if not war. If the Islamists win in the current struggles, the US and European economies could fail.

It is in the interest of the whole world to see to it that the US economy remains viable.

[britmaveric]

This is a world economy - you forget the rolling impact that a economic disaster of yank collapse would mean. Disaster for everyone.

That being said Yank economy will be fine.... doing quite well for all these doom sayers.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/Business

[backflip]

"If China refuses to let up on its relentless puruit of economic world domination, the US will take actions on its own that could result in worldwide economic disruption, if not war"

A laughable post, each phrase, each sentence. If you had any familiarity with China, its politics, its economy, and its numerous shortcomings, you'd realize how unintelligent your post is. China has a balance of trade surplus equal to a trillion USD. That doesn't mean it has a trillion USD but, let's assume that it does. One-half of that would cover the crushing non-performing loans that banks carry. The other half would cover the cost of building sufficient electrical generating facilities. Another half would pay for the crumbling infrastructure. Another half would pay for adequate medical care and pensions for the retirees. Approximately 750 million people are farmers, existing on less than $1000USD/year. The vast majority of the population live in homes without electricity, or indoor plumbing. Less than a generation ago, Europe and the US were worried about the Japanese miracle, "Japan, Inc". Now you're worried about China getting too big for its britches. You should worry about something else.

[pap]

"If China refuses to let up on its relentless puruit of economic world domination, the US will take actions on its own that could result in worldwide economic disruption, if not war"

A laughable post, each phrase, each sentence. If you had any familiarity with China, its politics, its economy, and its numerous shortcomings, you'd realize how unintelligent your post is. China has a balance of trade surplus equal to a trillion USD. That doesn't mean it has a trillion USD but, let's assume that it does. One-half of that would cover the crushing non-performing loans that banks carry. The other half would cover the cost of building sufficient electrical generating facilities. Another half would pay for the crumbling infrastructure. Another half would pay for adequate medical care and pensions for the retirees. Approximately 750 million people are farmers, existing on less than $1000USD/year. The vast majority of the population live in homes without electricity, or indoor plumbing. Less than a generation ago, Europe and the US were worried about the Japanese miracle, "Japan, Inc". Now you're worried about China getting too big for its britches. You should worry about something else.

I agree you should worry about something else. But for different reasons. I think it is inevitable that China will cause the US Currency to tumble and you should not worry about it because you can not do anything to stop it. It will not be soon. I am not talking about the fluctuations of today. I am talking about devaluation commensurate with the US national debt. Even Bernanke has started sounding this alarm as had his predecessor. The potential is definitely there. The US was a society of farmers at one point. It no longer is. It evolved as will China. China will evolve faster because it will skip technological timelines that the US had to grow through and pay for. It is in the process of jumping from the 19th century directly to the 21st century.

The US is important as long as it is the world’s primary option for exports. Once China has a self sustaining economy (won't happen soon) then the world will have a new trading partner to export to that can offset a downturn in the US economy. In the not to distant future the EU and China will be able to absorb the shock of a downturn for the US economy. Today, like it or not, the global economy goes the way of the US. That will not always be the case.

[pap]

As a "Yankee expat" (we Texans don't call ourselves that ), I'll start hurting if the rate goes below 30:1 for very long. But I can run back into those hot Thai classrooms with 51 students and one soi dog, if I absolutely have to, to make up for the currency exchange loss to my pensions.

There are reasonable explanations why the US$ is weak, but not reasonable excuses for the baht to be as strong as it is. If the rise in the baht's value isn't based on fundamentals, it's caused by speculators, who are a most fickle folk, who will grab their profits and run away when they wish. The baht could rebound to 40:1 at any time.

Because speculators are a lot of the reason the baht has jumped there is a lot of potential to make money. Their is also, sadly, alot of potential to lose money.

The smart money sits on the sidelines until it KNOWS which way a move will be. The rest of us suffer the consequences. C'est la vie.

[IMA_FARANG]

I recently retired to Thailand. I expected currency risk and all kinds of change. But I didn't expect a baht under 20 to the dollar. According to this clip, Thai business leaders are preparing for just that within the next few years. They are talking about specifically the US dollar because of the massive US deficits, meaning those from other western countries have less to worry about.

So, Yankees, would such a bad rate (bad from our perspective) persuade you to leave Thailand?

I just noticed today there are countries where the dollar is still as strong as ever, Mexico, Philippines, Argentina. So for many of us, at 20 to the dollar certainly, Thailand would just not be as attractive. Lets not kid ourselves, bang for the buck is a big factor in why many people move here. I happen to love the country as well, but not so sure I love it so much that I would suffer a dramatically lower quality of life to stay.

The linked article also provides some good info on why the Thai baht is difficult to stop from getting stronger, compared to the yen and yuan.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/01/31...ss_30025540.php

So what would happen to the Thai export machinery if the dollar depreciated 50 to 70 per cent to Bt18-19 per dollar?

Kan Trakulhoon, president of Siam Cement Group, one of the country's largest industrial conglomerates, told a panel discussion held by the Federation of Thai Industries that there is a possibility the dollar will plummet that far down in the next four or five years.

The reason is that the US twin deficits keep worsening and there is no end in sight so other currencies will go up as the dollar continues to fall.

Unlike many on this Forum I can remember being in Thailand when the rate really was 20 baht to a dollar.

Of course at that time you could get a beer in a Patpong bar for 20 baht also.

And I was a lot younger.

But the dollar always goes up and down, it will probably go back to the approx 40 baht to a dollar rate. Not because of any strength of the dollar but because the Thai economy and consequently the Baht is out of whack with reality.

Also the U.S. will lose the that floppy-eared-fool-from-Texas. The DOW is already at a record level (the capitalist scum that elected Georgie the Bushy Boy) are seeing the handwriting on the walls and bidding up the stock market so they can take their profits after 8 years and run away with their money and hide.

O.K. no politics, had my rant.

I'm not confident of the dollar coming back like before, but frankly the Baht is getting overvalued. Is the Thai economy really that strong? No way.

By the way, for my Brit friends, I can also remember when the pound was selling at $1.10. Not that i think that will ever happen again. Just wanted to illustrate the point that rates change.

(I had an American USAF friend who bought a house in the U.K at about $1.20 to a pound and sold it about 3 years later at about $1.80 to the pound)

[calibanjr.]

You guys have me reminiscing about a Euro trip I was on at 17 in 1984, I remember the numbers because they were such round numbers at the time.

One dollar: 10 Francs, 3 Marks, 2.5 SwissFrancs, 100 Drachmas, and I was in London on a day when I got pounds for $.99 Flew home to Boston one way for $95.

Ronnie Raygun put a stop to all that, though, long gone days.

[calibanjr.]

Edited February 2, 2007 by calibanjr.

[richard10365]

I think things won't change until GWB is out of the Whitehouse. I believe the decline of the dollar is directly proportional to the polices of the current U.S. president. As soon as America elects either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama then things will get back to normal as they will follow policies that will benefit America and not sink us further into debt. (I hope)

[Jingthing]

I think things won't change until GWB is out of the Whitehouse. I believe the decline of the dollar is directly proportional to the polices of the current U.S. president. As soon as America elects either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama then things will get back to normal as they will follow policies that will benefit America and not sink us further into debt. (I hope)

I think that is very wishful thinking.

The new president who will be a democrat will inherit a deep, deep hole courtesy of George Bush. America will still be in Iraq, the massive deficit will still be there, and there still will be no will to bite the bullet and cut entitlements and raise taxes to attack the debt. Thus, the weak dollar policy to knock away at the debt will continue. Someone will pay, eventually. But never now. Of course, American expats will pay now.

[Khun ?]

Well lets sum up Thailand with its robust economy and up market living standards.

I guess the majority have stopped courting foreigners and working the nightlife industry for wealth

and corruption is not needed anymore.

The U.S. has lowest interest rates and taxes ever available for the working class. 70% are living in their own property and Businesses are making record profits and family income is up. Future wealth transfer when the baby boomers start dieing off will be the highest ever. If a person borrowed against

their house in the last 5 years and invested in the stock markets they could of become much

better off with enough profits to pay off their cheap debt in cash like investments now.

What ever happened to borrow when rates are low and save when rates are higher.

They do not count asset wealth as savings so of course saving rates are down and for good reason.

Low unemployment and cheap debt, it don't happen the other way around to often.

Those that feed and live their life off the negative media will always be the unhappy lot and no better off than they was 10 or 20 years before and much less healthy. I'll be waiting for China and the rest to sell off this worthless U.S. debt instruments for pennies on the dollar. Remember debt that is considered not to worthy pays higher interest rates.

Maybe the status one has should determine the wealth one gets like many family run countries

would be a good thing for some on TV here. Hurry run along and claim your birth rights in some

of these Middle east and asian countries, pick up your religon on the way, it will be mots important.

[Jingthing]

Khun, the flip side of your honey talk is that in the US under Bush, the rich have gotten richer (massive tax breaks for the rich), the poor have gotten poorer, the middle class has been sideswiped, and many more millions of Americans have lost access to health care. Also, Americans as a people live in debt and do not save money. Not to mention their government. Fair and balanced, dude.

It is true the tax breaks for the rich have helped the stock market and many Americans do hold stock.

Edited February 2, 2007 by Jingthing

[Khun ?]

Hard to give tax breaks to families under $40K a year when they pay little to no taxes.

Do not forget what welfare done many times, rewarding bad behavour and laziness.

Yes health care is a problem but not unlike most civilized countries.

Most Thais cannot afford good health care and just because it is cheap should it be considered adeqaute or as having health care. All americans have health care, just not always paid for by themselves.

You are right many do not have a private care set up with insurance coverage. Nothing that a couple dollars a gallon tax will not handle as many countries do. Not much is perfect and myself as not being

insured for health care for about last 10 years I realize the risk at my age I am taking.

Until I do get insurance I'll have to relie on using the best in a third country if I can make it there.

Life is not always a fiesta and the american system does have many faults as do all civilized nations.

I know I have never went without what was needed and never had to eat out of garbage cans and

have always had will and hope of a good future. I grew up very poor with both parents that worked factories their whole life to make ends meet. Myself as many thais do, give to my parents well being

and thank them for what I did get and not what I didn't have.

I learned quite young that getting ahead in life would be up to me and not easy. I don't blame the rich for me being senseless at times or not doing better in life.

If the U.S. is so bad why does it give citizenship to more people than any country in the world year after year.

To think taking away Iraq's wealth from a Tyrant and his cronnies as being bad.

Wonder why these that so adamately complain about it don't praise the poor policeman named Taksin

for his wealth. Isn't that their story line the poorman made it good. I guess when it fits their whims is it ok.

[dog412]

i am not only bullish on the american future, but also on australia and europe. the sheer volumes of people in china and india, and the ensuing ecological disaster pending to occur will leave them almost uninhabitable. look at the current state of chinese cities at this early state of their development.

[causticme]

Just under 2 years to go before USA starts to turn the ship around...

Gore/Obama '08

I have 20 million baht,would love to see 20 to the dollar.