But civilisational collapses due to climate change have happened before, why wouldn't it happen to us? Here's a timeline. Just yesterday I was presenting on regionalisation of supply chains due to tariffs. 2026–2030: The period of mounting instability Climate-related disasters become more expensive and disruptive, particularly heat, flooding, drought and wildfire. Major powers become increasingly distrustful of one another, weakening international cooperation. Governments struggle with ageing populations, debt, housing shortages and stagnant productivity. AI accelerates economic disruption faster than political institutions adapt. Several states experience serious political polarisation and declining confidence in government. Global supply chains become more regionalised as countries prioritise strategic independence. This is a period where you feel life isn't getting better 2030–2035: The age of permanent crisis Several regions experience recurring food, water or energy shortages. Migration pressures increase dramatically. Governments respond with tighter borders and emergency measures. Democratic institutions become less stable in some countries as populations become increasingly willing to support authoritarian alternatives. A major geopolitical confrontation—perhaps involving China, Russia, the US or another regional power—creates prolonged economic disruption without necessarily becoming a world war. International institutions become increasingly ineffective. 2035–2040: Fragmentation Global trade shrinks substantially. Countries form competing economic and military blocs. Some developing countries experience repeated sovereign defaults and political crises. Rich countries increasingly concentrate resources on protecting their own populations and infrastructure. Large cities become increasingly expensive and difficult to maintain. Automation eliminates large numbers of middle-class jobs, while governments struggle to redistribute the gains. Several states become effectively ungovernable outside their major cities. Any semblance of global cooperation has gone 2040–2045: The infrastructure crisis Ageing infrastructure begins interacting with climate stress, economic stagnation and declining government capacity. Electricity grids suffer increasingly frequent failures. Water infrastructure deteriorates. Transport networks become less reliable. Governments defer maintenance because they cannot afford it. Skilled workers become scarce as older generations retire. Insurance markets withdraw from increasingly risky regions. Some coastal and drought-affected areas begin gradual abandonment. Governments impose increasingly severe restrictions during emergencies. 2045–2050: The great divergence Some countries—probably those with abundant energy, water, food and relatively strong institutions—remain relatively prosperous. Others enter a downward spiral. In failing states: central governments lose effective control over parts of their territory; local authorities and private organisations take over essential services; black markets expand; organised crime becomes increasingly powerful; education and healthcare deteriorate; emigration accelerates; birth rates and life expectancy fall. 2050–2060: The end of the global system, the end of our civilisation (the post 1945 world) 2052: a severe global food crisis coincides with energy shortages. 2053: several governments impose export controls on food and fuel. 2054: international trade contracts sharply. 2055: governments begin prioritising domestic populations over international commitments. 2056: several poorer countries default simultaneously. 2057: major migration flows destabilise neighbouring states. 2058: international organisations lose much of their practical authority. 2059: regional military conflicts multiply as states compete for water, energy and food. 2060: the world economy is no longer genuinely global. Its not about climate, AI, demographics or war. Its about whether government, our institutions, have the capacity to solve problems faster than they can accumulate. The idea that small failures compound themselves. The Aztec civilisation was already stressed when the Spanish arrived. Then it collapsed. Whats the scorecard on how world institutions did with the 2008 crisis and the 202o crisis. Aguably, we have seen a series of cascading failures triggered by the banking crisis.
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