Hopes rest on drilling of Tham Luang Cave in Chiang Rai

[sanemax]

3 minutes ago, Ks45672 said:

Stop telling the parents everybody will be fine because they are "strong young athletes" would be a good start

 

The youngest ones  11, calling him an athlete is farcical 

 

I am quite sure that the Parents are aware of the danger that their Children are in

[PhuketSarah]

25 minutes ago, Ks45672 said:

That maybe the ais warmer ir temperature if they're all dry but even if they're on the ledge it's probably cold, wet and slimy so it's maybe impossible to stay "dry" 

If they're wet  up to their necks maybe 15 is a bit more realistic 

It really depends on  the altitude where they are. Deeper is warmer but deeper is more likely to be flooded.  I think the shoes really  cinches it. They didn't take off their shoes for any reason other that to go diving, That  was a mistake I'm sure for many reasons. 

[sanemax]

Just now, PhuketSarah said:

They didn't take off their shoes for any reason other that to go diving, That  was a mistake I'm sure for many reasons. 

You have no idea as why why they took their shoes off , stop making things up

[Sheryl]

It  has been thoroughly established, by knowledgable experts in caving/cave rescue including those with first hand familiarity with this cave, that temperatures in this cave are relatively stable at 25 C  (77F). Hypothermia NOT a risk.

 

There is ample water.

 

Food will be lacking and they will certainly be hungry but it takes weeks or even months, not days, for starvation to be a risk.

 

So: no realistic  risk of death from hypothermia, dehydration or starvation.  There is thus absolutely no reason to assume they are dead nor is there any truth to the "one more day and it will surely be too late" sort of stuff being posted here. Stranded people have been rescued alive and unhurt after longer intervals than this.

 

The biggest risk is not the time that has passed. It was the initial flooding and everything hinges on where they were when it occurred, how fast the cave filled up and what they did at that point. They knew the cave well and would know where dry elevated areas are. Time-wise, they may have been in ta dry area when the flooding hit it,  since that seems to have been their destination and would be a likely spot to stop, rest and eat their snacks. If they had not yet reached it - or had reached it and already turned back to head out -- they would not have been far when the water started and (again in the opinion of expert cavers)could have gotten to dry ground in time. However we cannot be certain they did. They could conceivably  have been caught by the waters in one of the narrow areas if the flooding came in very rapidly, or, if it started slowly they might have  made the mistake of trying to head out and beat the rising waters and gotten overtaken along the way.  We don't know.  But there is at least as much or more likelihood they were in or reached dry ground in time and remain there, as prior trapped cavers did.

 

If they survived the initial flooding by getting to (or remaining on) dry high ground -- as is entirely possible, though of course not certain -- then there is every reasonable expectation that they are still alive now, and will be tomorrow, and the day after, and the day after etc. Terrified and hungry, but alive.

 

Why some posters wish to believe otherwise and even go so far as to state that families ought to start grieving, are being given false hope etc I cannot imagine. It is certainly not based  on the facts of the matter.  Neither is all the "if not found y tomorrow I fear the worst" sort of thing logical.

 

And it is in very bad taste.

 

What is wrong with people?

 

 

[PhuketSarah]

24 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

The temps underground will surely be an awful lot colder than in the ambient air temperature outside the cave.

15 Deg C --- I dont know if that is a  best temperature or not, but what I do know from my experiences from years ago when I was a sknny young man and spent a lot of time underground exploring various potholes and caves in the UK, Is that if these young people do not have warm and dry clothing to wear they are in serious trouble.

They will probably have entered the cave complex wearing just their Football gear, which will offer them zero insulation against the 2 types of cold in the cave.

The air temp inside if 15 deg is not so bad, if they are dry, but if they have gotten wet and for sure they will be covered in mud, the water temperature will surely be colder than 15 Deg,, and this is where the issue of Hypothermia will start to kick in for them.

This is a very sad and tragic incident for all concerned, and I have expressed my views based on experience.

I really wish and pray for a good outcome to this situation, and the kids can go back home to their worried and loving families.

 

 

.

 

Actually  mud is a good insulator,  if you can get it slathered on nice and thick. and  keep it from washing off  

[Ks45672]

14 minutes ago, PhuketSarah said:

It really depends on  the altitude where they are. Deeper is warmer but deeper is more likely to be flooded.  I think the shoes really  cinches it. They didn't take off their shoes for any reason other that to go diving, That  was a mistake I'm sure for many reasons. 

The shoes found at the entrance were football boots I read days ago

 

I don't know if they changed to flip flops or something like that but their bags were also found later on iirc

[Ks45672]

3 minutes ago, PhuketSarah said:

Actually  mud is a good insulator,  if you can get it slathered on nice and thick. and  keep it from washing off  

You've watched predator too many times... ?

[PhuketSarah]

5 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

It  has been thoroughly established, by knowledgable experts in caving/cave rescue including those with first hand familiarity with this cave, that temperatures in this cave are relatively stable at 25 C  (77F). Hypothermia NOT a risk.

 

There is ample water.

 

Food will be lacking and they will certainly be hungry but it takes weeks or even months, not days, for starvation to be a risk.

 

So: no realistic  risk of death from hypothermia, dehydration or starvation.  There is thus absolutely no reason to assume they are dead nor is there any truth to the "one more day and it will surely be too late" sort of stuff being posted here. Stranded people have been rescued alive and unhurt after longer intervals than this.

 

The biggest risk is not the time that has passed. It was the initial flooding and everything hinges on where they were when it occurred, how fast the cave filled up and what they did at that point. They knew the cave well and would know where dry elevated areas are. Time-wise, they may have been in ta dry area when the flooding hit it,  since that seems to have been their destination and would be a likely spot to stop, rest and eat their snacks. If they had not yet reached it - or had reached it and already turned back to head out -- they would not have been far when the water started and (again in the opinion of expert cavers)could have gotten to dry ground in time. However we cannot be certain they did. They could conceivably  have been caught by the waters in one of the narrow areas if the flooding came in very rapidly, or, if it started slowly they might have  made the mistake of trying to head out and beat the rising waters and gotten overtaken along the way.  We don't know.  But there is at least as much or more likelihood they were in or reached dry ground in time and remain there, as prior trapped cavers did.

 

If they survived the initial flooding by getting to (or remaining on) dry high ground -- as is entirely possible, though of course not certain -- then there is every reasonable expectation that they are still alive now, and will be tomorrow, and the day after, and the day after etc. Terrified and hungry, but alive.

 

Why some posters wish to believe otherwise and even go so far as to state that families ought to start grieving, are being given false hope etc I cannot imagine. It is certainly not based  on the facts of the matter.  Neither is all the "if not found y tomorrow I fear the worst" sort of thing logical.

 

And it is in very bad taste.

 

What is wrong with people?

 

 

Because  some of us have actual experience in spelunking and know  the danger of wearing wholly unsuitable clothing in temperatures less than 20 degree, especially when wet. . 

Take a look at the British expert   guy's face  - you think he's   holding out hope and telling families their strong young boys are fine ?   I don't think he is.  

[Sheryl]

Some of the most egregious posts and angry responses they generated have been removed.

[Sheryl]

2 minutes ago, PhuketSarah said:

Because  some of us have actual experience in spelunking and know  the danger of wearing wholly unsuitable clothing in temperatures less than 20 degree, especially when wet. . 

Take a look at the British expert   guy's face  - you think he's   holding out hope and telling families their strong young boys are fine ?   I don't think he is.  

Temperatures are not less than 20 degrees. They are, according to experts, a fairly constant 25 C.

[PhuketSarah]

Just now, Ks45672 said:

You've watched predator too many times... ?

No  I listened to  the what the guides told me when I took survival courses.  Now if we're  going to go off  onto  fictitious scenarios,  I'm fairly sure  that mud in Predator was more about camouflage  than warmth.  

[Ks45672]

4 minutes ago, PhuketSarah said:

No  I listened to  the what the guides told me when I took survival courses.  Now if we're  going to go off  onto  fictitious scenarios,  I'm fairly sure  that mud in Predator was more about camouflage  than warmth.  

Actually it was both, the predator could only see bodyheat so the mud made arnie invisible by not allowing his body heat to escape ... 

[PhuketSarah]

 

2 minutes ago, Ks45672 said:

Actually it was both, the predator could only see bodyheat so the mud made arnie invisible by not allowing his body heat to escape ... 

 So it was  camouflaging his heat, then. 

[sanemax]

2 minutes ago, PhuketSarah said:

Why  would they take their shoes off and leave them behind? 

May have gotten wet and became uncomfortable to walk , may have been difficult to climb in shoes , much easier to walk climb barefooted .

   Left the shoes behind, to be collected on the way back 

[Sheryl]

multiple troll posts removed and posting holiday given.

 

None of us knows for sure what the outcome of this will be,  but all decent people hope the children will have survived. Insensitive posts aimed at upsetting other posters  will not be tolerated nor will the posting of made up "facts".

[starky]

On 6/29/2018 at 8:22 AM, NanLaew said:

Talking about the CHRONOLOGY. Did you read the article and see how multiple entities and disciplines worked together over a period of weeks to work out the most viable solution for that rescue? It took about two weeks to locate them and even then they weren't sheltering in the most likely location.

 

Maybe the absolute uniqueness of cave and mine rescues is lost on you? If they were more frequent and similar, then each country would have a dedicated cave/mine rescue team and defined set or tried and tested procedures and equipment. However, since the few incidents are all different, authorities enlist the assistance and advice of entities and individuals with disparate but broadly similar experience... as it happening in Chiang Rai at this moment.

Over a period of weeks ya reckon? Yeah righto we are into what day 10 or so? Where did you get 2 weeks to locate them from? Some real shit talkers on this forum seriously. 

[metisdead]

Some more off topic trolling and baiting posts and the replies have been removed.

[ravip]

2 hours ago, starky said:

Over a period of weeks ya reckon? Yeah righto we are into what day 10 or so? Where did you get 2 weeks to locate them from? Some real shit talkers on this forum seriously. 

Yes. Indeed.  Just do the homework before the beer. 

[Ks45672]

5 minutes ago, ravip said:

Yes. Indeed.  Just do the homework before the beer. 

As far as the news has revealed, they still have not located them with any degree of certainty

The services are hoping they are on a ledge known as pattaya beach but have been unable to get near enough yet to verify if they are there or not.... 

 

It didn't take 2 weeks to guess they might be there but it is taking way too long to get a rescue team there because of the adverse conditions..... 

 

[smo]

15 hours ago, Yme said:

The time for blame will come at the end. But it's interesting if your understanding is correct. Do you still have a link to those sources?

Thanks!

 

Sorry I was treading in murky waters (unfortunate metaphor I know) meaning I was in Thai language cyberspace where all the clips not only speak thai but their headlines are also in Thai and I could only proceed by thumbshots (which also tended to look alike). In the white heat of getting to the fact I did not stop and take note of each instance. But like I said, I did check in Cortana about the subject first ("survivor") to make sure I wasn't venturing off-base. I guess you could do the same with a google search and embed "survivor" into the subject line.

 

One thing I was trying to do was taking a screenshot of one pic of the team I ran across that features all 13 boys (sans coach.) If nothing else I wanted to look out for my "surviving" boy so that I could make sure it was him. Unfortunately my tablet wasn't cooperating (temperamental as usual) so when I pressed power  and volume up/ or down button simultaneously I ended up shutting the damn thing off instead.?

[smo]

7 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

The biggest risk is not the time that has passed. It was the initial flooding and everything hinges on where they were when it occurred, how fast the cave filled up and what they did at that point. They knew the cave well and would know where dry elevated areas are. Time-wise, they may have been in ta dry area when the flooding hit it,  since that seems to have been their destination and would be a likely spot to stop, rest and eat their snacks. If they had not yet reached it - or had reached it and already turned back to head out -- they would not have been far when the water started and (again in the opinion of expert cavers)could have gotten to dry ground in time. However we cannot be certain they did. They could conceivably  have been caught by the waters in one of the narrow areas if the flooding came in very rapidly, or, if it started slowly they might have  made the mistake of trying to head out and beat the rising waters and gotten overtaken along the way.  We don't know.  But there is at least as much or more likelihood they were in or reached dry ground in time and remain there, as prior trapped cavers did.

 

If they survived the initial flooding by getting to (or remaining on) dry high ground -- as is entirely possible, though of course not certain -- then there is every reasonable expectation that they are still alive now, and will be tomorrow, and the day after, and the day after etc. Terrified and hungry, but alive.

 

 

 

 

 

Best-case scenario with too many "if" boxes that need to be ticked off that under the best
circumstance, might work among a bunch of non-bickering, well-coordinating adults in sound mind and able
body (this probably rules out the majority of Thaivisa board.) But these are kids in their early
teens who are, safe to assume, unexperienced with this kind of catastrophic encounter with mother nature and I bet this is their first (and might well be last) encounter of the kind. They might be familiar with
the caves, but they are not "athletes" nor cave diving experts by any stretch of the imagination.
And being kids, they are also prone to panicking, to slipping, sliding and falling when nagivating
- without any of the myriad of necessary equipment - the treacherous terrain that goes from steep ledges to
unmoveable boulders to sudden crevasses that could swallow them up faster than the blink of an
eye. And they had to do this in near (another best-case) total darkness. While the flash flood was
rushing up right behind them or closing up their exit route in front or steadfastly sweeping them away. This
is the wet, cold*, dark and utterly horrible reality that some folks just can't face.

 

* many of the Thai TV reporters were shocked at how cold the water  was coming out of the pumps.

[Rc2702]

On 6/29/2018 at 7:52 AM, sanemax said:

I do agree that it needs someone to lead the team, although I am not the person to do that .

  I am making an observation and I do feel that things can be improved .

Why the need for a 1000 people there ?

900 of them seem to be sitting around doing nothing and looking at maps .

You just need a team of 50 people , with one person in command and five other leaders , experts in their field .

   No need for all the others , hanging around doing nothing .

A small group of people who get things done .

No need for ambulances at the moment , just have one on stand bye for any accidents and summon the rest when they are needed .

   Should have had many pumps there , pumping the water out and drilling should have started last Monday

You need to stop pretending that you know what you are talking about.

[steve73]

15 hours ago, Sheryl said:

It  has been thoroughly established, by knowledgable experts in caving/cave rescue including those with first hand familiarity with this cave, that temperatures in this cave are relatively stable at 25 C  (77F). Hypothermia NOT a risk.

 

There is ample water.

 

Food will be lacking and they will certainly be hungry but it takes weeks or even months, not days, for starvation to be a risk.

 

So: no realistic  risk of death from hypothermia, dehydration or starvation.  There is thus absolutely no reason to assume they are dead nor is there any truth to the "one more day and it will surely be too late" sort of stuff being posted here. Stranded people have been rescued alive and unhurt after longer intervals than this.

 

The biggest risk is not the time that has passed. It was the initial flooding and everything hinges on where they were when it occurred, how fast the cave filled up and what they did at that point. They knew the cave well and would know where dry elevated areas are. Time-wise, they may have been in ta dry area when the flooding hit it,  since that seems to have been their destination and would be a likely spot to stop, rest and eat their snacks. If they had not yet reached it - or had reached it and already turned back to head out -- they would not have been far when the water started and (again in the opinion of expert cavers)could have gotten to dry ground in time. However we cannot be certain they did. They could conceivably  have been caught by the waters in one of the narrow areas if the flooding came in very rapidly, or, if it started slowly they might have  made the mistake of trying to head out and beat the rising waters and gotten overtaken along the way.  We don't know.  But there is at least as much or more likelihood they were in or reached dry ground in time and remain there, as prior trapped cavers did.

 

If they survived the initial flooding by getting to (or remaining on) dry high ground -- as is entirely possible, though of course not certain -- then there is every reasonable expectation that they are still alive now, and will be tomorrow, and the day after, and the day after etc. Terrified and hungry, but alive.

 

Why some posters wish to believe otherwise and even go so far as to state that families ought to start grieving, are being given false hope etc I cannot imagine. It is certainly not based  on the facts of the matter.  Neither is all the "if not found y tomorrow I fear the worst" sort of thing logical.

 

And it is in very bad taste.

 

What is wrong with people?

 

 

One of the few sensible post I have read... and as a global moderator please keep up the deleting of all the stupid, inappropriate and unrelated posts that keep being made.

[Sheryl]

From twitter feed it sounds like they may reach Pattaya Beach today.

 

Fingers crossed, as if the kids are not there it sounds like it is quite a ways further to go to reach the other dry areas of the cave.

[sanemax]

10 hours ago, Rc2702 said:

You need to stop pretending that you know what you are talking about.

They took my advice and got rid of all the unnecessary people today

[ravip]

1 hour ago, sanemax said:

They took my advice and got rid of all the unnecessary people today

You can consider yourself as an universal rescue expert.

 

 

[Cake Monster]

21 hours ago, Sheryl said:

Temperatures are not less than 20 degrees. They are, according to experts, a fairly constant 25 C.

As I have already stated, there are 2 temperatures in a cave 

One is the ambient air temperature, and the other is that of running or static water, which is considerably colder than the air temperature. 

[tingtongtourist]

21 hours ago, starky said:

Over a period of weeks ya reckon? Yeah righto we are into what day 10 or so? Where did you get 2 weeks to locate them from? Some real shit talkers on this forum seriously. 

you got that right about the shit talkers.

wow and honestly, i seen some of the absolute most ridiculous and stupid crap i ever read in many years just on threads about this issue.

 

funny thing, a lot of these guys commenting  are same who always talking about Thais only have IQ around 80

 

but look at some of these farang comments proving they themself are not much higher!

[Fish Head Soup]

On 7/1/2018 at 11:31 AM, Ks45672 said:

I hope you remember this post when the bodies are found...

What were you saying?

[Opl]

Boys missing found Alive!

Edited July 2, 2018 by Opl