Thailand’s Titanic Struggle

[ColPyat]

A Mom Luang I know reckons March, 6 months on from the original coup, will be the time when "something big happens" concerning the govt. But he wont tell me specifics.

That's the talk of town. Problem though is the rumor is mostly based on speculation.

It is mostly based on the fact that this is the time the university holidays start, and many fear that because of that the demonstrations will attract large numbers. The Police were given already the order that in case demonstrations become large they will not be as leniently treated as they were last year.

Another factor is that the the infights over who is going to become next army commander in chief when Gen. Sonthi goes into mandatory retirement later this year will heat up.

Lets wait and see.

[pjallittle]

".... the military coup might have exercised better judgment by carrying out their junta while Thaksin was in country, followed by an immediate trial. That they chose to do otherwise will always be a mystery to me."

Maybe they followed the dictum: "Always leave your enemy one bridge over which he can retreat".

I have seen it written somewhere, that at a former coup The Three Tyrants were sent a message that "there would no impediment placed in their way if they chose to drive to Don Muang and fly from the country"

The strategy which you suggest was politically employed by Richard Nixon who, upon winning a decisive victory over Hubert Humphrey, saw to it that Mr. Humphrey would have the use of US Air Force I for his return trip home. This gesture gave dignity to the defeated party.

It should not be confused with military tactics, however, the object of war is not to provide a pathway for escape so that the enemy can live to recover, regroup, and retaliate..........and that is exactly what the military coup may have done in this case.

I don't take issue with the scenario that you put forth but if this was a strategic consideration by the coup leaders, we are now living with the results and these loose ends will continue to foment dissension and only exacerbate the unrest.

Then again, I've never been a junta consultant so what my sentiments may be have absolutely no value.

[wilko]

Brilliant!!

At last a real snapshot of what is REALLY going on in Thai politics.

Thaksin tried to help the poor and was crucified for his efforts.

Er...where does it say that?????

[pjallittle]

Brilliant!!

At last a real snapshot of what is REALLY going on in Thai politics.

Thaksin tried to help the poor and was crucified for his efforts.

Er...where does it say that?????

The posting is just Livinginexile's reaction to the article with a couple of his own observations. I have taken the liberty of rearranging his sentences for clarity.

[endure]

A post has been removed. Discussion of the Royal Family is not permitted.

[Hmmm]

Post re-submitted with two words omitted ....

An interesting review by Dr Pongsudhirak, although perhaps no new analysis that hasn't been aired elsewhere (of course not in the Thai press). Similar discussion is available on a number of sites these days, for example:

http://bangkokpundit.blogspot.com/

Khun Pongsudhirak suggests that Thaksin is not yet spent as a political force. For Thaksin to return to power, several things would seem to be necessary:

1. He would need to be allowed back into the country

2. He would need to want to return to power.

3. He would need to rebuild his political party.

4. He would need to avoid conviction on a number of possible charges

5. Free elections would need to be held (unless he mounted his own coup)

Those currently in power realize that free elections involving Thaksin could easily find him back in power. So is it likely that they would allow this ? Since those currently in power have implied that a Western-style democray is not appropiate for Thailand - an opinion vindicated by Thaksin - let's not hold our breath.

Edited February 3, 2007 by Totster
Links to discussions of the Royal Family removed - endure --- update, removed an additional link - totster

[Xeque]

I just watched an excellent movie called "All the kings men" starring Sean Penn, Jude Law, Anthony Hopkins and a host of major stars. It is available as a DVD in Thai Video Rentals now.

The similarities between the fictional characters in the movie and what has been (and still does) happen in Thailand are quite quite an eye-opener.

It's not what he did and what he got so wrong that killed Thaksin - it was the sheer enormity of the corruption that he spawned and supported along with the people who took that money and pocketed it.

Just think what could have been done with the money that has been syphoned off over the years, starting with the free health services he promised but never really materialised to the incomplete Bangkok elevated road system (whatever happend to the Hopewell project?) to the shambles that is the new international airport.

Politicians can be forgiven mistakes but never wholesale theft of money that belongs to the country and ALL it's people.

I hope Thaksin never comes back. I do hope, however, that somewhere in the background is another politician with the same charisma who can come to the fore to shake things back together again but this time without the intervention of the military or the steady leak of public funds into a few peoples pockets.

Edited February 3, 2007 by Xeque

[HOOD Robin]

hi...

i would have thought that most of this was obvious......

Thailand is going nowhere right now and the next elections...... if they are allowed to take place will be critical...Thaksin is still out there and in the shadows...... who ... will democraticaly replace him.... i wonder.....

as for for the military.. prestige is everything.. not only in thailand - and if you dont have grey hair and a suit/uniform - you need not apply.....

Thaksin has not gone... he may well return... and in my opinion it will be better for thailand if he returns.......

since he was overturned we have seen only chaos and protectionism from the " military " government... no this/no that....

let the people speak... they have been silent until now....

7 months to go....

WTO where ae you...! all the rules are being broken!

amarka

Hello guys,

I'm still a newbie ; Can anybody tell me what these shortenings mean : WTO (above in the text) and LOS (i already read some times in the forums...). Thanks !

My reply to Amarka : I'm not so sure that it will be better if Thaksin should return.... "Let the people speak" ???? They WERE positive about him, but since those poor guys dedected what Mr Toxin stole from them - and all the other bad things he did to put the country in a grey daylight (for example new airport on Cobra Swamb that had to open very quickly but wasn't ready !!) - I guess that many of them would like to see him in jail, together with all those other corrupt bastards !

If an average person like you and me should do the same bad things like he did, we got already a one way ticket to the Bangkok Hilton ! So why not him and his clan ? Of course, SATANG..... that's what's it all about here !

And chaos has ALWAYS been in Thailand with all this corruption in this beautiful country... What i don't understand about the Thai people : They would go through a fire for their King, so why wouldn't they go through that same fire to punish those corrupt bastards and bring them to Monkey House ? After all the King did NOT condemn the militairy coup in September....

[dee123]

without freedom of press this article is worthless garbage,.....without freedom of press thailand is doomed!

[yoshiwara]

....amazing how so many want to whitewash the corrupt policeman who is so desperate to get his snout back in the trough....there is a crisis but that is Thailand's slippage down the tiger economies league table...unfortunately the establishment and the usurper are unable to chart a clear way through the waters so they are lamming into each other...the international financial vultures are smelling blood and circling the country and nipping away as per the recent currency hoo-hah. Toxic's strategy will be to pounce at the next economic crisis that kicks in but it is all a war of blame cultures. Meanwhile the second-string falang sociologists bleat on about democracy blah....total side-show....titanic struggle yes but the real one is for keeps. no prisoners.

[blaze]

....amazing how so many want to whitewash the corrupt policeman who is so desperate to get his snout back in the trough....there is a crisis but that is Thailand's slippage down the tiger economies league table...unfortunately the establishment and the usurper are unable to chart a clear way through the waters so they are lamming into each other...the international financial vultures are smelling blood and circling the country and nipping away as per the recent currency hoo-hah. Toxic's strategy will be to pounce at the next economic crisis that kicks in but it is all a war of blame cultures. Meanwhile the second-string falang sociologists bleat on about democracy blah....total side-show....titanic struggle yes but the real one is for keeps. no prisoners.

I'd be interested to know what you and HOOD Robin and Xeque thought of the concluding paragraph of the article. Would the situation that he describes exist if Taksin had not been born?

[LaoPo]

Hello guys,

I'm still a newbie ; Can anybody tell me what these shortenings mean : WTO (above in the text) and LOS (i already read some times in the forums...). Thanks !

WTO = World Trade Organization

LOS = Land Of Smiles = Thailand

Welcome !

LaoPo

[Hmmm]

As I tried to point out in my original post, there are quite a few sites with scholarly discussion of issues similar to those raised by Dr Pongsudhirak. There is nothing particularly new in what he said, nor in the way he said it.

Unfortunately most of these links have now been removed by the moderators.

These sites are online newspapers specialising in analysis of the asian region and academic discussion blogs, some based at internationally-renowned universities. Just like Dr Pongsudhirak's article does, articles on these sites sometime mention certain issues which are deemed 'sensitive' (even though 'certain authorities' have said they should no longer be considered so).

Writers in this thread have responded to Dr Pongsudhirak's piece in such a way as to suggest that it is unusual to see such issues discussed. That may be the case as far as the Thai press is concerned, but it is far from the case in the broader world of scholarly Thai internet discussions.

I apologize if my original post now seems to make less sense, and I am sorry that the opportunity to pass on these resources has now been lost.

Edited February 3, 2007 by Hmmm

[Laulen]

It is certainly an interesting time in Thailand.

This is an excellent article about the current state of affairs in Thailand, although naturally not everyone will agree. The need for greater transparency in government dealings is key here, but I doubt that the cultural stranglehold of 'grengai' will ever be broken here.

As long as 'grengai' exists, as it does in so many Southeast Asian nations, along with China, good governance will be difficult to achieve. However, it is amazing how the ordinary Thai citizen, despite being 'tired' and 'frustrated' with all these political goings-on still retains that ready enigmatic smile along with 'mai pen rai'!

[arthurriding]

Reading through the various postings on this topic it always fascinates me how gullible some people can be. Whatever the rights and wrongs of Thaksin's rule (and personally I think there were far more wrongs than rights) Thaksin was never, ever, a democrat. Oh, sure, he used the language of democracy but nothing he ever did showed for a single moment that he actually believed in democracy or did anything to promote democracy. The current struggle is essentially between one group of oligarchs and another group of oligarchs, albeit in my view, the current lot, are, at present, somewhat better than the old lot.

What Thaksin did was to reinvent the old, old, strategy of using the people's money (ie taxes and fees) to bribe the people, in order to keep in power. Just look at his actions, nothing to provide long term, relevant, sustainable development projects for the people, other than as a by-product of some of his schemes. It was all to do with handouts, nothing to do with long term development, which would have been the case if he had the slightest intention of helping the poor. That he has so much support amongst the rural, and urban, poor, is nothing to do with real efforts to help them, he was just exceptionally good at marketing and at 'pulling the wool over people's eyes'. It would be a tragedy for the country if he got back in and was able to continue to blind the people.

Thaksin's efforts to take legal action against his critics was just aspect of his completely anti-democratic credentials. No true democrat would ever do that for attacks on policies, although personal attacks is another thing. And look at the dismissal of the journalists who reported the cracks in the runways of the new airport. So, please, let's hear no more about Thaksin being a so-called democrat.

He is certainly not the first to follow the strategy that he did. To take just one of many examples, the old Roman Empire, which existed for hundreds of years, was a democracy, and called as such even under the most tyrannical of Governments. There were votes, albeit not women, slaves and foreigners, and the 'people' were able to elect the Senate and 'control' affairs. The reality was that government was controlled in the empire by a small group of the rich and the army. The people were kept quiet by a vast number of handouts and circuses/entertainment for the poor. Remind you of anyone?

Real democracy, as opposed to pretend democracy, can never exist in any country until there is a sufficiently large, really a majority, of the so-called middle classes. That is when you start having a sufficiently large group of people whose main interest is the stability and prosperity of the country as a whole, not just rulers who are mainly interested in their own personal prosperity and power. You can have 'good' oligarchs but it is not democracy. That is not to say that all the middle classes are honest and above corruption. Of course they can be corrupt but the difference is that when they are in the majority, there are enough other people around in a position to make sure that the cake is spread relatively evenly and most people have a real stake in the long term prosperity (as opposed to purely short term personal benefit) of the country as a whole and want to make sure no-one does anything to destroy that prosperity.

What I found most alarming about Thaksin's despotic rule was the similarities it invoked with the role of Juan Peron in Argentina. The comparisons are really very close. a strong, charismatic leader but one purely motivated by personal greed and power and more than happy to bankrupt the country in pursuit of his ambitions. Peron had millions of devoted supporters who imagined that he was trying to help them whereas all that he was doing was to provide temporary handouts to the poor. His economic policies were to destroy the Argentine economy and even now, decades later, the country (and the poor) has yet to recover from his rule - but yet, incredibly, many of the poor still adore his name. A hundred years ago, Argentina was one of the ten richest countries in the world, yes, really. It made a number of wrong turnings over the years but until Peron it was still on track to be one of the great countries of the world. Since then it has become one of the world's paupers.

Thaksin was well down the road of emulating Juan Peron until thankfully the army coup of last year at least attempted to restore some semblance of sound government. Sure they have made mistakes but a lot of these have been blown out of all proportion by Thaksin apologists. To take just one example, may I commend this article in, The Asia Times Online http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/IB02Ae01.html

which gives quite a different, and fascinating, take on the present government's economic policies.

Thailand, a country which I am sure most of us dearly love, has been pulled back from the brink of disaster by last year's coup. We can but hope that all lovers of Thailand give their support to all who have the best interests of the country at heart and assist them in overcoming any mistakes that they might make. If Thaksin is ever allowed back in control, you might as well change the name of the country to Argentina, for that is what this country will have become. Until 'real democracy' is established in Thailand, and it is likely to be many decades before the middle classes are big enough for that to happen, we must give our support on the basis of who is really trying to do real good for all the people, not just who has the better PR and the better marketing strategy.

[sbk]

**Several posts removed for violating forum rules***

Continue to discuss the Royal Family and this thread will be closed and offenders given a holiday. Is this clear? Last public warning.

[dee123]

has not this thread run its course.

Edited February 3, 2007 by dee123

[HOOD Robin]

Hello guys,

I'm still a newbie ; Can anybody tell me what these shortenings mean : WTO (above in the text) and LOS (i already read some times in the forums...). Thanks !

WTO = World Trade Organization

LOS = Land Of Smiles = Thailand

Welcome !

LaoPo

THANKS LaoPo ! Appreciate !

[atlastaname]

Brilliant!!

At last a real snapshot of what is REALLY going on in Thai politics.

Thaksin tried to help the poor and was crucified for his efforts.

Maybe , but he also fostered deep hatred amounst those who run and own the powerful nightlife establishments. For a big section of the tourists Thailand IS about the nightlife . Why on earth did Taksin meddle with it with crackdowns on this and that etc. He should have left it alone. Back in the 1990's Thailand had a seedy nightlife , people flocked there to enjoy that , it brought billions of dollars into Thailand's coffers. Why the hel_l didn't Taksin leave it that way.? A bit of seedy and a bit of corruption is what Thailand is about . Personally i like that , and so do thousands of others. If we wanted squeaky clean we can go to Singapore!!

[Johpa]

Khun Thitnan does indeed write in English quite well. I assume he also passes US Senator Biden's test of being clean and articulate. But really, a short little descriptive essay does not quite rise one to the level of brilliance.

Go back to page 1 and review the curriculum vitae offered for our review. This man has done considerably more than a short little essay, his range and depth of experience speaks for itself.

Educationally, he achieved a Doctoral degree at one of the USA's finest universities, noted for their acumen in his field, has won prestigious awards from the UK and Germany and posted many germaine articles in the Bangkok Post. His rapid rise at the University where he is head of his Department is remarkable.

It is to George's credit that an article of this quality and content was brought to our attention as it emanates from the Irrawaddy, a group of exiled Myanmar dissidents and not from a mainstream Thai publication.

So the answer is yes, this man more than surpasses the Biden test and can hardly be seen as wet behind the ears. He is the kind of Thai who has a career in assessing as well as working within the body politic, buttressed by considerable education, both in and out of Thailand, the USA, UK and other parts of the world.

But what he's not is an apologist for Thaksin, review the articles he's written and then come back to the table.

Well I guess I need to apologize for not using some of d'em smiley faces to show that the intent of my post was one of humor regarding other poster's comments and the intent was not to denigrate, nor comment in any manner upon Achaan Thitnan's academic corpus nor his professional achievements.

And being active in local Burmese democratic activities, I am very familar with the Irrawaddy (long bookmarked on my machine), and I did take note of the source of the article. But again, I was only making a small joke juxtaposing the recent comments by US Senator Biden regading Obama, and the many comments here about how Thitnan's short political essay was so "well written".

[Johpa]

Khun Thitnan does indeed write in English quite well. I assume he also passes US Senator Biden's test of being clean and articulate. But really, a short little descriptive essay does not quite rise one to the level of brilliance.

What a patronising comment.Khun Thitnan does not write English "quite well" but flawlessly.Incidentally,if you don't mind me assuming the role of a pedant, the proper usage in the context of your post is "raise" not "rise".I

Oh Khun Younghusband, I really do get excited when you assume the role of a pedant and bring out the whip when you catch me making a linguistical error. But yes indeedy, the correct usage should have been "raise" and not "rise" and I stand humbly corrected.

[thaigene2]

Khun Thitnan does indeed write in English quite well. I assume he also passes US Senator Biden's test of being clean and articulate. But really, a short little descriptive essay does not quite rise one to the level of brilliance.

...Sniffed the ageing Thatcherite, Eton-educated almost-Oxbiridge educated Johpa...and wanna-be Godfather of "Chump"-Buri..

[thaigene2]

**Several posts removed for violating forum rules***

Continue to discuss the Royal Family and this thread will be closed and offenders given a holiday. Is this clear? Last public warning.

SBK is only moderating the rules that we're all supposed to have read. Posts regarding the Royal Family are off-limits. That doesn't IMHO mean that the news/opinion article in the OP runs afoul of them. Of course, some of the Thai elites may think so since it names them too. Thaksin used that ploy a couple of times didn't he...and by the end, all the elites were accusing each other of Lesse Majeste - which interestingly was a charge the head of state himself claimed to be getting out of hand..and that he could indeed could be criticised - not that anyone has found reason to do so. The Royal Family is fine and doing its job as well as always (luckily for us all) - it's the other big hair brigade that needs to be watched..and worried about. Any illegal jewelry on any of them lately?

[cherryboy]

I was in Thailand as a young GI in the early 70's (Udorn) and fell in love with the place. When I retired in 2003 I moved to bangkok/Pattaya. I lasted about 15 months. The noise, pollution and complete character change of the locals was a total turnoff. Also the young "Monks" have made a mockery of Buddhism.

The food and beaches are still great. But that's about it. Its a great place to visit. You can have it for long term residency. Its also great if you are a middle aged, over weight alcoholic pedaphile looser with no friends. Regards.

[LaoPo]

I was in Thailand as a young GI in the early 70's (Udorn) and fell in love with the place. When I retired in 2003 I moved to bangkok/Pattaya. I lasted about 15 months. The noise, pollution and complete character change of the locals was a total turnoff. Also the young "Monks" have made a mockery of Buddhism.

The food and beaches are still great. But that's about it. Its a great place to visit. You can have it for long term residency. Its also great if you are a middle aged, over weight alcoholic pedaphile looser with no friends. Regards.

I beg your pardon ?

LaoPo

[papakapbaan]

Yes, it's well written.

But it does not really say much more than: politically, Thailand is quite immature and nobody knows where the country is heading!

I don't believe for one second that Thaksin "believed in the righteousness of his cause" ("remake Thailand into a more egalitarian society"").

He was an archetypical populist elected (indeed...) by a politically immature population who transited from feudalism to modernity in maybe less than half a century.

Now the old clique (military, bureaucracy) is back and the new order of Thaksin is discredited (or more exactly: revealed for what it was: self-serving populism).

But I don't believe for one second that the military and bureaucracy have the interest of the people at heart any more than Thaksin.

To expatriates here, this article reminds that a second coup is possible - and that nothing less than civil war (plain and simple) looms in Thailand! :-(

Edited February 3, 2007 by papakapbaan

[pjallittle]

Khun Thitnan does indeed write in English quite well. I assume he also passes US Senator Biden's test of being clean and articulate. But really, a short little descriptive essay does not quite rise one to the level of brilliance.

Go back to page 1 and review the curriculum vitae offered for our review. This man has done considerably more than a short little essay, his range and depth of experience speaks for itself.

Well I guess I need to apologize for not using some of d'em smiley faces to show that the intent of my post was one of humor regarding other poster's comments and the intent was not to denigrate, nor comment in any manner upon Achaan Thitnan's academic corpus nor his professional achievements.

And being active in local Burmese democratic activities, I am very familar with the Irrawaddy (long bookmarked on my machine), and I did take note of the source of the article. But again, I was only making a small juxtaposing the recent comments by US Senator Biden regading Obama, and the many comments here about how Thitnan's short political essay was so "well written".

It may have been intended to interject humour, but the addition of your last sentence.........But really, a short little descriptive essay does not quite rise one to the level of brilliance....suggests otherwise.

[sriracha john]

I appreciate all the moderators' efforts to clean up the garbage from this thread. I see it was a busy time for them. Thank you.

Edited February 4, 2007 by sriracha john

[younghusband]

I appreciate all the moderators' efforts to clean up the garbage from this thread. I see it was a busy time for them. Thank you.

Please remember forum rules that moderation issues are not to be discussed.However if you wish to assist in minimising "garbage" there is one rather obvious step you can take all by yourself.Thank you.

[thaigene2]

Now the old clique (military, bureaucracy) is back and the new order of Thaksin is discredited (or more exactly: revealed for what it was: self-serving populism).

But I don't believe for one second that the military and bureaucracy have the interest of the people at heart any more than Thaksin.

Couldn't agree more.

Now all those civil servants and their brother-sister-cousin-in-laws who run small-mid-sized contracting companies can resume their birthright priviledges to pillage the state coffers - after that rude interuption by Thaksin who thought he could give it to his own buddies - and get on with the business of buying more Benz' and condos in Hua Hin and Cha Am.

But if you thought the new airport and its switch-quality-building-products-for-cheap-ones-and-pocket-the-difference contractors were all Thaksin cronies and have now been scared off, you should think again.

My 'guess' is that this kind of thing has been going on for generations and will probably accelerate now that the 'rightful bureaucrats' and their family connections are back in the driver's seat. Accelerate because they need to make up for lost time..

As for the civil war suggestions - maybe - but I don't really see that happening in a large way. This society is too patronistic - and the poor people are too subserviant and deferential to Phooyai - khap-poom. If anything I suspect it would be more like an insurgency by educated marxist types - and would be put down.

Edited February 4, 2007 by thaigene2