Thailand 1997 All Over Again?

Max Loh

Special situations, investment advisor, short-term horizon, momentum3 comments  

 

>> There are eerie similarities between Thailand 1997 and Turkey 2018.

>> Turkey's most pressing issue is to stem the capital flight out of the country. The Lira is in trouble, and Turkey has insufficient reserves to defend the currency.

>> Watchlist: EUR/USD, Federal Reserve meeting in September.

 

Just before the Asian Financial Crisis hit in 1997, Thailand's external debt stood northwards of $100 billion. To put things into perspective, the country's foreign exchange reserves just before the crisis hit were $37 billion in December 1996, and its GDP was about $180 billion.

 

In essence, external debt to GDP ratio for Thailand stood at 55% in 1996.

 

Thailand had enjoyed a golden period of growth from 1990-1996 leading up to the crisis. The country enjoyed large inflows of capital from abroad, with foreign investors particularly enticed by the country's low inflation, high fiscal balance surpluses, and high savings rate.

 

Full story: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4198489-thailand-1997

 

-- Seeking Alpha 2018-2018-08-14

 You can not compare Turkey to Thailand in 1997.

Thailand was not holding a USA  Pastor against his will, Thailand did not have the PKK on they borders, fighting for autonomy, but a designated terrorist group, by the USA, but supported by the USA, and Thailand did not the Syrian war on its borders.

And Thailand is not a  NATO member, and history has shown that Tukey has been a big player in NATO over the years.

All this has been a large factor in the downfall of the Turkish Lira.

Not just a financial problem. 

And Trump was not in the White House.

a despot ruling turkey with his akp faschists party can only run the country down for he will fail as he lacks economic insight and expertise. turkey is run by erdowahn like a fiefdom with his son in law finance minister. companys have accumulated usd $ 220 billion in foreign debts that will hopefully bring the despot erdogan down. human right abuses are currently legion in turkey.

 

all above mentioned were not, will not be given at any time in los

wbr

roobaa01

Why would I want to download the seekingalpha app just to finish reading the article?

38 minutes ago, grollies said:

Why would I want to download the seekingalpha app just to finish reading the article?

So they can spam you with their notifications. Not a fan of SA.

1 hour ago, grollies said:

Why would I want to download the seekingalpha app just to finish reading the article?

You wouldn't.  Plenty of material about this in other media sources.  Whether you believe the comparison is apt is another matter, but you don't need the app (pun intended) to learn about the comparison.

1 hour ago, grollies said:

Why would I want to download the seekingalpha app just to finish reading the article?

I sit at the PC and can read the article to the end.

At least no indication that there is a continued story.

8 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand 1997 All Over Again?

Nope, only worst 

Interesting. Might not be a great time to invest in baht.

 

I'll tell you what though, if the baht goes back to 49 to the dollar I will buy a bunch!

3 hours ago, KhunBENQ said:

I sit at the PC and can read the article to the end.

At least no indication that there is a continued story.

On my android phone it says to continue I have to download the app. I'm not that interested.

4 hours ago, brucegoniners said:

Interesting. Might not be a great time to invest in baht. 

Waiting desperately for the Thai Baht crash

For me 50 for the Euro would be fine enough and then drain most of the Euro accounts

 

 

Edited August 14, 20187 yr by KhunBENQ

The title of this thread gave me false hope. I was hoping the baht was going to crash through the floor as it did during the 90s. As for Turkey, who the hell cares? This is Thai visa not Turkey visa.

11 hours ago, roobaa01 said:

a despot ruling turkey with his akp faschists party can only run the country down for he will fail as he lacks economic insight and expertise. turkey is run by erdowahn like a fiefdom with his son in law finance minister. companys have accumulated usd $ 220 billion in foreign debts that will hopefully bring the despot erdogan down. human right abuses are currently legion in turkey.

 

all above mentioned were not, will not be given at any time in los

wbr

roobaa01

Despot running the country , fascist supporters , no economic experience , human rights abuse...mmm only Turkey ?