To get ahead in upcoming election, first try to understand its mathematics

[webfact]

To get ahead in upcoming election, first try to understand its mathematics

 

 

The majority of Thais may hate mathematics, but they will be forced to be constantly engaged with it in the upcoming months. If they are to follow the crunch time of  with great fun and understanding, that is.

 

Key players in next year’s elections also require math expertise, as minor miscalculation can mean having it all slip away.

 

Elections are always a number game, but next year’s Thai poll is a lot more so due to added constitutional conditions, which critics of military–backed Prayut Chan–o–cha insist were put there to make things easier for him and harder for his opponents.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/to-get-ahead-in-upcoming-election-first-try-to-understand-its-mathematics/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2018-09-24
 

 

[PatOngo]

Pass me the calculator, please.

[bluesofa]

4 minutes ago, PatOngo said:

Pass me the calculator, please.

That's a Thai calculator I assume, going on a news article last week:

The PMs bound to win.

 

[Eric Loh]

Whole lot of confusing computation. Comes down to a simple explanation that the junta has rigged the system to disadvantage PTP getting a landslide victory and Ahbisit still hold key to who will be the next PM. 

[Eric Loh]

Whole lot of confusing computation. Comes down to a simple explanation that the junta has rigged the system to disadvantage PTP getting a landslide victory and Ahbisit still hold key to who will be the next PM. 

[puck2]

45 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Whole lot of confusing computation. Comes down to a simple explanation that the junta has rigged the system to disadvantage PTP getting a landslide victory and Ahbisit still hold key to who will be the next PM. 

 

If you don't understand this system then please don't conclude: …. the junta has rigged the system to disadvantage PTP …..

 

That is the best democratic election system. Because it isn't the same as in the UK or in the USA that doesn't mean it is worse. The winner takes it all is not a democratic result. Democratic means the majority of the votes. All votes together, not those of a constituency!!! We experienced the bad/=undemocratic election results in the USA where the majority of the votes was pro Dem and not pro Rep. but where a Rep-LOTUS won the presidency.

 

The new Thai system is nearly the same as we have in Germany. From Thai PBS World:

Here’s how the “Every Vote Counts” system works: All ballots cast for all parties will be counted together and calculated into the number of seats each party gets out of 500. If it is figured out that Party A gets 200 seats and it already wins 190 constituency seats in the election, it will get an additional 10 seats.

One exemption: The German „Senat“ = Der Bundesrat has no say in choosing the MP (because not elected by the people, but sent there by the 16 states). This system results in so called excess mandates. It guarantees that parties have mandates in the parliament who haven't been chosen directly and therefore representing the %-part of the voters.

[Eric Loh]

11 minutes ago, puck2 said:

 

If you don't understand this system then please don't conclude: …. the junta has rigged the system to disadvantage PTP …..

 

That is the best democratic election system. Because it isn't the same as in the UK or in the USA that doesn't mean it is worse. The winner takes it all is not a democratic result. Democratic means the majority of the votes. All votes together, not those of a constituency!!! We experienced the bad/=undemocratic election results in the USA where the majority of the votes was pro Dem and not pro Rep. but where a Rep-LOTUS won the presidency.

 

The new Thai system is nearly the same as we have in Germany. From Thai PBS World:

Here’s how the “Every Vote Counts” system works: All ballots cast for all parties will be counted together and calculated into the number of seats each party gets out of 500. If it is figured out that Party A gets 200 seats and it already wins 190 constituency seats in the election, it will get an additional 10 seats.

One exemption: The German „Senat“ = Der Bundesrat has no say in choosing the MP (because not elected by the people, but sent there by the 16 states). This system results in so called excess mandates. It guarantees that parties have mandates in the parliament who haven't been chosen directly and therefore representing the %-part of the voters.

Are you claiming that Germany political environment is same as Thailand. Is the election system in Germany written by procoup sycophants and legislated in a 100% junta appointees NLA with no debates. Is coup treasonous in Germany? 

[Justgrazing]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Elections are always a number game, but next year’s Thai poll is a lot more so due to added constitutional conditions, which critics of military–backed Prayut Chan–o–cha insist were put there to make things easier for him and harder for his opponents.

Which will make it all the more entertaining if said desired result fails to arrive as and when said election eventually arrives .. 

[tifino]

 

he foolishly don't care, when he a boss.

but he's certainly aware that even though all are supposed to be seen as equal,

it doesn't take that much to topple a lump of deadweight.

 

 

 

[candide]

54 minutes ago, puck2 said:

 

If you don't understand this system then please don't conclude: …. the junta has rigged the system to disadvantage PTP …..

 

That is the best democratic election system. Because it isn't the same as in the UK or in the USA that doesn't mean it is worse. The winner takes it all is not a democratic result. Democratic means the majority of the votes. All votes together, not those of a constituency!!! We experienced the bad/=undemocratic election results in the USA where the majority of the votes was pro Dem and not pro Rep. but where a Rep-LOTUS won the presidency.

 

The new Thai system is nearly the same as we have in Germany. From Thai PBS World:

Here’s how the “Every Vote Counts” system works: All ballots cast for all parties will be counted together and calculated into the number of seats each party gets out of 500. If it is figured out that Party A gets 200 seats and it already wins 190 constituency seats in the election, it will get an additional 10 seats.

One exemption: The German „Senat“ = Der Bundesrat has no say in choosing the MP (because not elected by the people, but sent there by the 16 states). This system results in so called excess mandates. It guarantees that parties have mandates in the parliament who haven't been chosen directly and therefore representing the %-part of the voters.

I think it's you who do not understand why the system is rigged. It's not so much about the proportionality of representation, which is just there to strenghthen the rigging mechanism.

The election is rigged because 250 senators will also elect the PM, and these senators are appointed by one of the likely candidate.

Edited September 24, 2018 by candide

[brucec64]

3 minutes ago, candide said:

I think it's you who does not understand why the system is rigged. It's not so much about the proportionality of representation, which is just there to to strenghthen the rigging mechanism.

The election is rigged because 250 senators will also elect the PM, and these senators are appointed by one of the likely candidate.



Exactly - Prayuth only needs 126 seats to become PM, while Dems or PTP need 376. @puck2 how is that the best democratic system? Prayuth can become PM with 25% (or less) of the popular vote, and this translates to probably 15% or less of the total possible vote. Sounds like it has been rigged from the beginning...

[Srikcir]

3 hours ago, PatOngo said:

Pass me the calculator, please.

1 soldier + 1 Soldier = 11 soldiers

[bluesofa]

5 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

1 soldier + 1 Soldier = 11 soldiers

Ha ha! Not sure if that's a decimal or binary error there!

No, my mistake. It must be regular army accounting.

 

[MaxLee]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

To get ahead in upcoming election, first try to understand its mathematics

Easy 1+2 = 44   aka  "the article number, that shouldn't have been named just now"

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, puck2 said:

The new Thai system is nearly the same as we have in Germany.

Not nearly enough as the Junta's MMA electoral system doesn't exist anywhere else in the world.

It allegedly reflects pure Thainess.

Germany's MMP electoral system was examined (field trip) and rejected by the CDC.

First, the rights to choose PM will not be in the hand of the party that get the most voters.* 

Second, to win the district election, a party need to rely on local godfathers which will increase vote buying at the end* - to which Prayut's regime has been already accused.

* https://prachatai.com/english/node/5946

 

The MMA reduces the electoral fortunes of PTP but boosts the prospect of medium-sized political parties with strong constituency bases while limiting gains for the Democrats and small parties that compete mainly through the party list. https://asiancorrespondent.com/2016/02/the-effects-of-thailands-proposed-electoral-system/

 

In short more parties will be required to form a coalition government and well financed medium parties such as the pro-military parties will have the advantage.

Note the effect of the MMA on voting does not include the various new junta/NLA organic laws that further disadvantage existing large and small political parties.

 

[Eric Loh]

–       The Palang Pracharat Party, which reportedly supports Prayut, can get several seats without having to win at any constituency.

 

This alone is so disturbing and so rigged. Pro junta PPP don’t even have to get people mandate as their representatives and yet have seats in the Parliament. 

[TKDfella]

17 hours ago, bluesofa said:

Ha ha! Not sure if that's a decimal or binary error there!

No, my mistake. It must be regular army accounting.

 

Ha! Yeah, binary 11=3, but since we also use the sexagesimal (time) 11=61????

[JAG]

20 hours ago, puck2 said:

 

If you don't understand this system then please don't conclude: …. the junta has rigged the system to disadvantage PTP …..

 

That is the best democratic election system. Because it isn't the same as in the UK or in the USA that doesn't mean it is worse. The winner takes it all is not a democratic result. Democratic means the majority of the votes. All votes together, not those of a constituency!!! We experienced the bad/=undemocratic election results in the USA where the majority of the votes was pro Dem and not pro Rep. but where a Rep-LOTUS won the presidency.

 

The new Thai system is nearly the same as we have in Germany. From Thai PBS World:

Here’s how the “Every Vote Counts” system works: All ballots cast for all parties will be counted together and calculated into the number of seats each party gets out of 500. If it is figured out that Party A gets 200 seats and it already wins 190 constituency seats in the election, it will get an additional 10 seats.

One exemption: The German „Senat“ = Der Bundesrat has no say in choosing the MP (because not elected by the people, but sent there by the 16 states). This system results in so called excess mandates. It guarantees that parties have mandates in the parliament who haven't been chosen directly and therefore representing the %-part of the voters.

 

20 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Are you claiming that Germany political environment is same as Thailand. Is the election system in Germany written by procoup sycophants and legislated in a 100% junta appointees NLA with no debates. Is coup treasonous in Germany? 

Don't worry Eric. I'm sure that when the party which gains the most votes, and which wins the most seats, is prevented from forming a government, and the junta leadership are confirmed as the winners, and put in place as the new government by a collection of small parties and the block vote of the senate which they (the junta) will have appointed, then he will be at the front of the queue to explain why that is far more democratic than allowing the party which actually wins the election to form the government.

[Eric Loh]

31 minutes ago, JAG said:

 

Don't worry Eric. I'm sure that when the party which gains the most votes, and which wins the most seats, is prevented from forming a government, and the junta leadership are confirmed as the winners, and put in place as the new government by a collection of small parties and the block vote of the senate which they (the junta) will have appointed, then he will be at the front of the queue to explain why that is far more democratic than allowing the party which actually wins the election to form the government.

Will be poetic justice if he form the government and be ousted in the next coup or people's power and given a safe passage out of Thailand. No country for old generals.