One of the most interesting observations I made while living in Buriram was that nearly every Thai family with a decent house and car had a close relation to a foreigner in one way or another, often married. As soon as that foreigner fell away (died) they went straight back into poverty, first borrowing money from loan sharks and losing their car, and soon after losing the house as they didn't want to lose face to their so-called hi-so friends in the village, lmao.

 

Another observation, villages in Buriram are turning into ghost towns, and now the same is happening in east Pattaya, in my soi that counts 8 houses, there are 3 for rent, and they've been for rent as long as I live here (1-year). When I visit other villages (mine has security still in place), I see that the small security portals are sometimes abandoned, and you'll find the for rent signs on every corner or every few houses.

 

So what about 10 years from now? Most retirees will have died by natural cause by then.

 

Thailand is pushing other retirees away because they don't have 800k in the bank.

 

Thailand is pushing digital nomads / freelancers away due to refusal of visas and no proper alternatives (these are people that might've thought about marrying a Thai and starting a family, now with all this visa stuff I think most of them aren't looking into long-term relationships anymore.

 

Society is aging, I'm 42, my parents are from the generation that made 2-3 kids, but their parents made 5-8 kids and that is the generation that is dieing in the next 10-20 years.

 

So who is going to replace that? The Chinese, or do they only come here for short-term holidays? The Russians? They mostly take their own families with them.

 

I think Thailand is going back to poverty. It's already poverty where most people earn a minimum wage of 9000 baht/month.

 

Right now Thailand scores 58 in the list of poorest countries (1 being poorest, 157 or so being richest), the projection is that Thailand will drop to #57 in 2022.

 

I really don't see how this is going to end well. Am I missing something?

 

I think Pattaya will largely be a ghost town 20 years from now, except for the weekends when Bangkok comes to party.

it would be great if traffic goes down so its any point in trying to get to a supermarket mid day, but alas, i dont see pattaya getting the much needed depopulation

Where do you see Thailand in 10 years from now?

Under military rule, protecting the amart  as there will not be enough middle income voters to carry a civilian government.

9 minutes ago, poanoi said:

it would be great if traffic goes down so its any point in trying to get to a supermarket mid day, but alas, i dont see pattaya getting the much needed depopulation

Move to Pattaya east. Now that it's November it's getting a little bit busier but still quiet enough. Jomtien isn't that bad either, only sometimes a little busy at Thappraya road to get to FoodMart but shouldn't take longer than 5 minutes, except for the weekend.

48 minutes ago, dennis123 said:

interesting observations I made while living in Buriram

the opposite is happening in Hua Hin. Its booming. Hi So Thais everywhere driving Mercedes and BMW.

48 minutes ago, dennis123 said:

So what about 10 years from now? Most retirees will have died by natural cause by then. 

I'm not dying in ten years. and those that do they will be replaced by expats who can afford the 800k or what ever.

48 minutes ago, dennis123 said:

I think Thailand is going back to poverty.

it might feel like that up north. i know when I visit Udon Thani it feels completely different than Hua Hin and Bangkok.

but it is sad the Thais are not making a lot of progress. I was stunned watching them install storm drains and electrical improperly.

 

Edited November 4, 20187 yr by NCC1701A

2 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

the opposite is happening in Hua Hin. Its booming. Hi So Thais everywhere driving Mercedes and BMW.

I'm not dying in ten years.

it might feel like that up north. i know when I visit Udon Thani it feels completely different than Hua Hin and Bangkok.

 

I admit there's something about that stretch between Bangkok and Hua Hin, so-called trendy but honestly hell ugly resorts (if you ask me, it's probably what some would call vintage) that charge 2500-4000 baht/night.

How many foreigners live in Thailand?

I don't have a number but I am sure Thais will perfectly survive without us.

I think many Thais, and not only Thais, have this attitude that if they have a lot of money then they spend a lot of money, big house, big car, etc.

And if they have little money then they live in a small house and have an old car.

I think there is something in Buddhism that nothing is stable. It changes all the time to good to bad to good again and it seems many Thais accept this.

Where will Thailand be in 10 years? I don't know, I don't really expect a lot of change.

But then, when I look at other parts of the world, lots of change does often not seem to be change to a brighter future...

2 hours ago, PatOngo said:

Where do you see Thailand in 10 years from now?

Under military rule, protecting the amart  as there will not be enough middle income voters to carry a civilian government.

......and the greater percentage of the population getting on with their everyday independent and self-sufficient lives. 

Same as it ever was.

Quote

Where do you see Thailand in 10 years from now?

With continental drift , I would say about 25 centimeters  or 9.8 inches to the north east.

To answer that question, one only has to look back 10 year previous and see what happened.

 

I first visited Thailand for an extended stay in 1984.

 

Nakon Nayok area.

 

I can honestly remember thinking, man, this must be God's Country. 

 

People were genuinely interesting and so good natured.

 

People were very happy and content with what they had because they didn't have any western mass marketing advertising telling them if they didn't own an Iphone there were nobody.

 

People worked hard for what little they had and were genuinely getting by just fine.

 

Without going into a diatribe, after I moved there full time in 2004, I was like holy shit! 

 

What the hell has happened to Thailand?

 

In those 20 years, western mass marketing advertising had taken over and Thai's then had to own everything.

 

Long gone was the happiness from not knowing they were poor.

 

Greed had replaced happiness and it was affecting everyone.

 

The Age of Money and Materialism had taken hold and developed such a strong grip it would change the personality of the entire country.

 

No longer were people or accepting of being poor.

 

Corruption was rampant to fuel the materialistic purchases that separate the Thai Hi-Si's from the rest of the population.

 

Corruption in government, politicians running for office simply to control budgets and steal from them, cops corrupt, schools corrupt, people injuring their own parents for control of their money, land, you name it. 

 

Crime due to greed had increased 100 fold. If there was a way to rip some one of to make money, Thai's would exploit it.

 

The education system, no matter what you say, has not moved forward one bit. When a high percentage of Thai's believe corruption is acceptable, what they are telling you is they want a chance at a share of the corruption money as well.

 

Land grabbing at an all-time high and we are just now seeing the monumental amount of resorts built on land they didn't even own.

 

Why did all of this happen in 20 years?

 

GREED due to being bombarded with western materialistic advertising.

 

All Thai's want to be somebody. 8 Student's living in a one room flat cannot understand that logic as long as they can be seen on the BTS with a new Iphone.

 

So where will Thailand be in 10 more years is easy to see.

 

Politicians fight, not for the right to make Thailand better, but to control the budgets that they will rape for their own personal financial gain.

 

Who will look out for the country and the people? The answer is no one.

 

Keep the population un-educated so the government can buy blimp airships for $700 million and expect the people to believe this is a sound purchase

 

Recent crackdowns on expats, when there is still monumental prostitution, drug dealers, you name it.

 

Expats are finally start to wise up to the fact, the country is going to do what ever it wants to regardless of the expats welfare or not?

 

I see a time, when if the current military regime doesn't get elected to run the country legally, then the next group of politicians will plunder the budgets for personal gain, allow their friends to land grab, build resorts, you name it.

 

Anyone that can expose that corruption will be arrested, disappear or shuttled out of the country.

 

Thailand has not advanced in industry for over 34 years since I have been there. Don't see any Thai Rockets heading to the Space Station and they are even launching from Africa these days.

 

Thailand will be more indebted to China than ever, as any rail project, dam or any other large infrastructure build money comes from China or Japan; yes there is a price to pay for that.

 

Thailand is the land of greed and corruption. Soap Operas all in giant mansions, mercedes benz, you name it. If you are not living like that, you have no worth.

 

No sane person can expect Thailand will ever get better and for expats, maybe even worse.

 

There is such of divide between the lifestyle of Thai's living in the city and those in Isaan who still struggle to survive cutting rice by hand for 200 baht per day.

 

It has not changed there in the 35 years since I first visited.

 

One can see the writing on the wall, that depending on which way the election winds blow, things could get even worse.

 

The best thing an expat could do is always have a plan; one way or the other.

 

There is no getting better until Thailand makes a commitment to educate the entire country and bring up their industrial skills to be able to develop themselves.

 

Predict there will be hard times ahead and the election will be the first start of all that.

12 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

To answer that question, one only has to look back 10 year previous and see what happened.

 .... etc. (read full post above)

Best summation I have read in a long while - absolutely mirrors my own experience of 30 years in Thailand. Many hundreds of years of being a down-trodden feudal society have left Thais in general without a real sense of community, and that's where the country's biggest problem lies. Too many people (though not all) take the attitude that there is no reason to consider the betterment of the community because there is nothing in it for them personally. There are exceptions, of course, but I think this generalisation is quite valid.

 

So expect more of the same -- greed, corruption, lack of progress, disease, filth ... etc.

9 hours ago, dennis123 said:

I really don't see how this is going to end well. Am I missing something?

 

I think Pattaya will largely be a ghost town 20 years from now, except for the weekends when Bangkok comes to party.

The economy in Thailand does not depend on old expats . Thailand will continue with trade , export is a big part of it. Tourism is only a small part. Rural villages will continue living as they did in the past , poor families but still earn enough to put food on the table. 

 

Having said that , we are under a military rule now , if you look at the history it will not last forever. When Thailand realize tourists and expats are leaving in big numbers to Vietnam/Cambo, maybe something will happen.  

 

Pattaya could very well turn into a ghost town if the Chinese decide they had enough and all the sexpats are gone. 

 

 

 

17 hours ago, sirineou said:

With continental drift , I would say about 25 centimeters  or 9.8 inches to the north east.

yes, and a bit lower in the terrain

 

having experienced another 1-2 military takeovers

stronger economy

less baht for dollar gbp and euro

noticeable inflation

improved exports

having had a booble or 2 in the real estate market in central areas

lots more poor people - country side people going out of interest and solvency

higher and more pointed health care problems

 

good for white retirees? think so

 

11 hours ago, balo said:

The economy in Thailand does not depend on old expats . Thailand will continue with trade , export is a big part of it. Tourism is only a small part. Rural villages will continue living as they did in the past , poor families but still earn enough to put food on the table. 

 

Having said that , we are under a military rule now , if you look at the history it will not last forever. When Thailand realize tourists and expats are leaving in big numbers to Vietnam/Cambo, maybe something will happen.  

 

Pattaya could very well turn into a ghost town if the Chinese decide they had enough and all the sexpats are gone. 

 

 

 

tourism is no wee deal - 10% of gdp man

 

tourists and expats are NOT leaving in big numbers to Nam and Kamen, disagree

 

I take a more positive spin (for 10 to 20 years) because most of the dinosaurs that rule Thailand will be dead or deep in dementia (some are already). Hoping a new generation will turn away from this coup after coup mentality. FFP is a beacon so let's keep hope alive.

15 hours ago, bwpage3 said:

To answer that question, one only has to look back 10 year previous and see what happened.

 

I first visited Thailand for an extended stay in 1984.

 

Nakon Nayok area.

 

I can honestly remember thinking, man, this must be God's Country. 

 

People were genuinely interesting and so good natured.

 

People were very happy and content with what they had because they didn't have any western mass marketing advertising telling them if they didn't own an Iphone there were nobody.

 

People worked hard for what little they had and were genuinely getting by just fine.

 

Without going into a diatribe, after I moved there full time in 2004, I was like holy shit! 

 

What the hell has happened to Thailand?

 

In those 20 years, western mass marketing advertising had taken over and Thai's then had to own everything.

 

Long gone was the happiness from not knowing they were poor.

 

Greed had replaced happiness and it was affecting everyone.

 

The Age of Money and Materialism had taken hold and developed such a strong grip it would change the personality of the entire country.

 

No longer were people or accepting of being poor.

 

Corruption was rampant to fuel the materialistic purchases that separate the Thai Hi-Si's from the rest of the population.

 

Corruption in government, politicians running for office simply to control budgets and steal from them, cops corrupt, schools corrupt, people injuring their own parents for control of their money, land, you name it. 

 

Crime due to greed had increased 100 fold. If there was a way to rip some one of to make money, Thai's would exploit it.

 

The education system, no matter what you say, has not moved forward one bit. When a high percentage of Thai's believe corruption is acceptable, what they are telling you is they want a chance at a share of the corruption money as well.

 

Land grabbing at an all-time high and we are just now seeing the monumental amount of resorts built on land they didn't even own.

 

Why did all of this happen in 20 years?

 

GREED due to being bombarded with western materialistic advertising.

 

All Thai's want to be somebody. 8 Student's living in a one room flat cannot understand that logic as long as they can be seen on the BTS with a new Iphone.

 

So where will Thailand be in 10 more years is easy to see.

 

Politicians fight, not for the right to make Thailand better, but to control the budgets that they will rape for their own personal financial gain.

 

Who will look out for the country and the people? The answer is no one.

 

Keep the population un-educated so the government can buy blimp airships for $700 million and expect the people to believe this is a sound purchase

 

Recent crackdowns on expats, when there is still monumental prostitution, drug dealers, you name it.

 

Expats are finally start to wise up to the fact, the country is going to do what ever it wants to regardless of the expats welfare or not?

 

I see a time, when if the current military regime doesn't get elected to run the country legally, then the next group of politicians will plunder the budgets for personal gain, allow their friends to land grab, build resorts, you name it.

 

Anyone that can expose that corruption will be arrested, disappear or shuttled out of the country.

 

Thailand has not advanced in industry for over 34 years since I have been there. Don't see any Thai Rockets heading to the Space Station and they are even launching from Africa these days.

 

Thailand will be more indebted to China than ever, as any rail project, dam or any other large infrastructure build money comes from China or Japan; yes there is a price to pay for that.

 

Thailand is the land of greed and corruption. Soap Operas all in giant mansions, mercedes benz, you name it. If you are not living like that, you have no worth.

 

No sane person can expect Thailand will ever get better and for expats, maybe even worse.

 

There is such of divide between the lifestyle of Thai's living in the city and those in Isaan who still struggle to survive cutting rice by hand for 200 baht per day.

 

It has not changed there in the 35 years since I first visited.

 

One can see the writing on the wall, that depending on which way the election winds blow, things could get even worse.

 

The best thing an expat could do is always have a plan; one way or the other.

 

There is no getting better until Thailand makes a commitment to educate the entire country and bring up their industrial skills to be able to develop themselves.

 

Predict there will be hard times ahead and the election will be the first start of all that.

No I think some of that is just we don't know what we don't know. Like you before I came here and lived I visited and worshiped Thais and Thailand but after I moved it was same as you "s**t it's an illusion".

 

I 'thought' they were happy but they were not and, as a suppressed people, until the dinosaurs are gone and hopefully the younger generation takes control they will be the same. 10 to 20 years to see that paradigm shift (if it comes).

Still a Third World country. 

I see women are 10 years older.

sex workers will be charging huge amounts of  cash... (28k-50k  shortime ) so they can shop  for luxury items at the 1000s of malls built everywhere ,and stickman will be dead .many old farangs will have lost their marbles and suffer erectile disfunction so the bars industry will have collapsed by then and care home for farangs will be the latest boom market..street taxis will all be self driving and all taxi drivers will be unemployed or working as pimps

Thai culture is where the problem is regarding parenting.

Boys are brought up in such a way that they do not understand that they may be doing wrong.

They are not taught to be responsible for their actions (or lack thereof)

Just look around, a small boy trips over and 6 ladies rush to pick him up and kiss him better.

If a young girl does the same, she is likely told to stop whining.....

 

When the child wants toys, iPhone, tablet etc, it is given.

Because it's free, it has no value to the child.

When a new model comes out, they Must Have it!

and they do get it!

 

Thai adult males seem to marry quickly and as soon as a child is on the way/arrives, they tend to dump their "Wife", with no support and move directly on to the next.

No responsibility and the law does not seem to support the woman or child.

 

Looking for an improvement when the current youngsters take over from the Dinosaurs is, IMHO, a vain hope, education starts at home but the parents don't have the right education either, so how can anything improve?

 

I first visited in 1969 and it was a wonderful thing to experience then.

However, as has be well pointed out, Western commercialization has completed it's corruption.

Now Thais want something for nothing and they want it now!

 

In the survey that was done 2 or 3 years ago and the majority of Thais accepted that corruption was not so bad, actually went on to say Only as long as I get my share!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't think anything will change much. Except for the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. I do believe the Chinese influence will grow stronger, internally and externally. They practically rule the country, but for the Thais nothing will change.

13 hours ago, balo said:

The economy in Thailand does not depend on old expats . Thailand will continue with trade , export is a big part of it. Tourism is only a small part. Rural villages will continue living as they did in the past , poor families but still earn enough to put food on the table. 

 

Having said that , we are under a military rule now , if you look at the history it will not last forever. When Thailand realize tourists and expats are leaving in big numbers to Vietnam/Cambo, maybe something will happen.  

 

Pattaya could very well turn into a ghost town if the Chinese decide they had enough and all the sexpats are gone. 

 

 

 

Pattaya will change, and I doubt it will become an Ghost town, the location is to good for that happening. Water quality will be better by time, and I think we will see Pattaya area and Cha Am and sout devolop quite a bit the next century. 

 

It all depends on the world peace, and if the western or the Cineese will be their future tradepartners, or both for that sake. However we will see the Chineese footprint be more solid in the future, and that is not necessery good for western expats, and we will end up in our own back yeards. Who knows

 

Thailand have a bright future with military rule, Im quite sure they are not giving up this time, since thats how it will be in future. Demacracy is on the last upphill, before downhill, and when the ball start rolling,,,,,,,,,, 

Nobody can improve themselves until they have the strength to admit they have problems that need addressing. In this case its a systemic issue from government and down to the individuals. Accepting ownership for problems and working on solutions would be a start.

20 hours ago, sirineou said:

With continental drift , I would say about 25 centimeters  or 9.8 inches to the north east.

You got that one out of my mouth...

 

Anyway, Thailand is not an isolated island, and where Thailand will be in 10 years largely depends on where the rest of the world will be...and that's not encouraging.

 

First, I think that Thailand is making a mistake by betting the tourism farm on the Chinese.

 

It seems more obvious with each passing day that China is heading toward some sort of conflict with the US, and if this happens, or something else like a virus epidemic (remember the SARS), the Chinese tourists will turn like a school of fish and go into hiding back home...not 50% or 75% of them, but all of them...for a very long time!

 

Otherwise I agree with the other old timers...my first visit dates back 40 years...another country, another world, another me...

 

Yet, during the past 20 years, things have changed a lot.

Life was as good in Pattaya then, as it has become awful, the reason why, like many others, I fled the city for the highlands of Isaan.

 

And what to say about Phuket, so wonderful 40 years ago, and Samui which, according to what I read on TV Forum has become a cesspool of crime.

 

I can't imagine why this trend would reverse, trends never do, unless there is a Duterte inspired kind of event, as recently in Boracay...

 

 

 

 

23 hours ago, dennis123 said:

Move to Pattaya east. Now that it's November it's getting a little bit busier but still quiet enough. Jomtien isn't that bad either, only sometimes a little busy at Thappraya road to get to FoodMart but shouldn't take longer than 5 minutes, except for the weekend.

The same

Thailand will be more expensive. Wealthy gets wealthier and poor gets poorer.

Within 10 years.  I see another financial crisis.  It may not start here, but it will be the result of contagion related to a global financial downturn - over-leveraged corporations cutting back and going under, lay-offs, consumer spending going south as consumer credit dries up, over-extended consumers unable to service their debt, over-extended banks reaping the reward of lending to consumers who were incapable of paying back the interest no less the principle as the Ponzi goes into crisis mode, mega-project and major corporate and government construction project halted, more lay-offs, consumers walking away from their debt obligations en-mass, weak links in the financial institutions go bankrupt, major banks closing as they Hoover up and 'disappear' their depositors funds at their banks, chaos, banks crying for governments to save them with bailouts because rogering their depositors doesn't cover the trillions valuated in USD in directives that the unregulated banks have incurred by acting like a casinos as opposed to a savings institution, the IMF stepping in and imposes austerity on the 99% while the 1% look for fire-sale bargains, and the Bangkok skyline is again littered with hollowed out concrete testaments to corporate, government, and banking greed but about 10 times worse than 1997 or 2008.  Then comes another coup as people take to the streets, but this time it's not the soft type of philanthropic compassionate army generals seeking to bring 'happiness to the people' but instead to keep the lid on the country when it begins to deconstruct like Venezuela or 1998 Argentina. 
So, having the Thai government boot you out of their deteriorating country may be a welcomed gift if they can guarantee you safe passage, that is if you failed to read the writing on the wall and get out while the getting was good.
Or life will be hunky-dory, GDP will have increased to 7% per annum, tourism will have quadrupled as all coral reefs will have regenerated along the coast, scams will be a thing of the past, and all taxi drivers use their meters with a smile, plastic will be a thing of the past, all Thais will be employed middle class with 4 bedroom houses and two car garages, and Thai children will boast some of the highest grades in maths and sciences in the entire world, Bangkok will be the new Singapore, and the SET will be pushing 5000.  And Thailand will earn a collective Nobel Peace Prize as the most Democratic Nation in the World with the fewest road deaths of any country on the globe.  "Chai Yo!"

16 hours ago, balo said:

Having said that , we are under a military rule now , if you look at the history it will not last forever.

Absolutely correct.  Looking back at the history of coups between 1932 and 2018, in the next 10 years, on average, Thailand should experience 2 more military coups if they are able to elect another civilian government in 2019. 

I often have the sense that Thailand is fundamentally a 3rd world country but they've managed to paper it over with foreign imports. Given that here is my current observations and projections (I've lived here since 2005):

 

- Thailand is tied to technology from other countries so they'll only progress as far as the 1st world nations do. Guaranteed they will not advance on this front.

- "Fancy shops" with AC, nice chairs/tables etc... are more abundant then 10 years ago so I expect that to continue. More window-dressing but still a welcome addition to life here.

- They are still building cheap concrete slot shops so the general aesthetic will remain the same, i.e. cluttered shops with messy borders on the road often with dirt and muddy conditions because no one is willing to invest the money to lay concrete where it's needed.

- They are not taking the introduction of cars seriously at all so parking continues to get worse and make life more miserable than it was 10 years. Massive failing on their part to no address this.

- Traffic carnage will continue unabated as there's no interest from the common man to address the issue, let alone the police.

- Pollution on the rise. Thais are not interesting in tackling this and with more cars, higher population density the problem can only go one way.

- Obesity on the rise.

- Dog mayhem, carnage and pestilence will remain persistent. Literally no one I know is interested in even considering this may be a problem.

- Ever increasing density in cities while pulling population out of the villages. Given how Thais seem unfit to manage complicated social structures this is an ongoing disaster.

- Continued better access to imported goods and online shopping growing (still lags far behind the West or China for example).

- More sports culture is appearing every year. I'm hopefully they will eventually start some SERIOUS park projects that take advantage of the mountains and hiking possibility's present here.

 

That's a bleak outlook and I can't help but feel the country was better off a low-tech village culture with small population centers. The longer I'm here the more I feel the need to retreat into the hinterlands so I can minimize my exposure to social dysfunction.