Thai junta and Thaksin-backed populists face off before 2019 poll

[webfact]

Thai junta and Thaksin-backed populists face off before 2019 poll

By Panarat Thepgumpanat and Panu Wongcha-um

 

FILE PHOTO: Supporters of ousted former Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra wait for her at the Supreme Court in Bangkok, Thailand, August 25, 2017. REUTERS/Jorge Silva/File Photo

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Battle lines are being drawn between Thailand's military government and the populist movement led by ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra as both sides attempt to outmanoeuvre the other before a general election due in 2019.

 

The junta has promised to hold the much-delayed election as early as February, a test of its promise to restore democracy amid widely held concerns that it aims to maintain a grip on power in Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy.

 

The race is again expected to pit Thaksin's "red shirt" followers against the military and royalist establishment, which seized power in successive coups in 2006 and 2014. Thaksin's camp, which has won every election since 2001, has been unable to assert control over non-elected bodies, particularly the judiciary and the military, prompting bouts of street protests and coups.

 

In a move widely seen as an attempt to cripple support for Thaksin and his allies, the junta last month ordered the Election Commission to investigate whether he is still controlling the popular Puea Thai Party from exile abroad, and possibly disband it.

 

"They are afraid of us," Puea Thai veteran Watana Muangsook told Reuters, referring to the junta's efforts to undermine the influence of his party and allies. "The only way they can beat us is that they have to play beyond the rules. If they follow the rules they will lose."

 

UNDER PRESSURE

The Shinawatra clan faces pressure elsewhere, too.

 

Thaksin's son, 38-year-old Panthongtae Shinawatra, was indicted last month for an alleged money-laundering offence dating back to 2004. He pleaded not guilty.

 

Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's sister and prime minister for nearly three years, fled Thailand last year to avoid conviction in a criminal negligence case she says was politically motivated. The junta has sought her extradition from Britain.

 

Eight core members of Puea Thai are also facing legal action for allegedly breaching a junta ban on political gatherings of more than five people.

 

Authorities have confiscated and banned the distribution of thousands of calendars featuring a picture of Thaksin and Yingluck, which were being handed out in several places in northeastern Thailand this month.

 

Thaksin said in a rare interview with NHK TV recently "pro-democracy camps" could win some 300 of the lower house of parliament's 500 seats in the coming election.

 

That comment prompted the military government to order an official probe into his links with the party.

 

Puea Thai members deny Thaksin's involvement in the running of the party and say they have been "following the law".

 

As Puea Thai faces the threat of dissolution, at least three back-up parties have been launched - Puea Tham Party, Puea Chart Party, and Thai Raksa Chart Party - all of which have executives who are former members and allies of Puea Thai.

 

The junta has denied targeting Thaksin and his allies, saying government agencies have been proceeding legally.

 

"I don't see the singling-out of Thaksin and the Shinawatra family," said government spokesman Puttipong Punnakan.

 

Pro-Thaksin parties say they are further disadvantaged by the new constitution, written by an army-appointed committee, which critics say is designed to prolong the military's influence over politics for years through unelected bodies and other mechanisms.

 

LEGAL ACTIONS MAY BACKFIRE

Thaksin and his allies, who champion populist policies such as a subsidised rice scheme and basic healthcare, remain immensely popular especially in the rural north and northeastern provinces.

 

Experts say it is this enduring support that could prove a huge challenge for the junta at the polls.

 

"The problem for the authorities who want to dissolve Puea Thai is not the party banner but its durable support bases," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University.

 

"If the party is dissolved, its support bases will likely just shift to proxy parties," Thitinan said, adding that legal moves against the Thaksin camp could even embolden voters if they see them as unfair political persecution.

 

The Puea Thai Party remains optimistic of the party's chances in next year's elections despite the pressure it faces.

 

"If this was a 100-metre race, (the military) started at 80 metres while we started at zero," Watana said. "But if the people rejected the military ... perhaps a landslide victory is still possible."

 

(Writing by Kanupriya Kapoor; Editing by John Chalmers)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-11-13

[PatOngo]

14 minutes ago, webfact said:

Battle lines are being drawn between Thailand's military government and the populist movement led by ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra as both sides attempt to outmanoeuvre the other before a general election due in 2019

Outbid would be a better description!

[z42]

You can only really shake your head at how ghastly an administration is when one of Thaksin's outfits is made to look halfway respectable in comparison.

 

I can't see any parties though that look like they have any real vision for the nation, even FF look a little wishy washy when u get past the positive soundbites

[GreasyFingers]

12 hours ago, webfact said:

Thaksin and his allies, who champion populist policies such as a subsidised rice scheme and basic healthcare, remain immensely popular especially in the rural north and northeastern provinces.

 

Experts say it is this enduring support that could prove a huge challenge for the junta at the polls.

Do not be so sure of this. There was a backlash against Thaksin because he wanted to be "king". The monarchy is still the strong link to most rural Thais. We will have to wait until the election but have to put up with the expat Thaksin lovers on here until then.

Wonder if there will be an exodus if they do not win the election?

[JAG]

47 minutes ago, GreasyFingers said:

Do not be so sure of this. There was a backlash against Thaksin because he wanted to be "king". The monarchy is still the strong link to most rural Thais. We will have to wait until the election but have to put up with the expat Thaksin lovers on here until then.

Wonder if there will be an exodus if they do not win the election?

One might ask the same question about the junta enthusiasts on here, when the junta inevitably falls...

[lemonjelly]

Missus used to loathe Thaksin as did most people in the south, but now says things were better under him, the junta have made themselves extremely unpopular and I get the feeling that this is a general consensus..... election time could get ugly enough for another convenient coup.

[zzaa09]

12 hours ago, z42 said:

You can only really shake your head at how ghastly an administration is when one of Thaksin's outfits is made to look halfway respectable in comparison.

 

I can't see any parties though that look like they have any real vision for the nation, even FF look a little wishy washy when u get past the positive soundbites

I'd be most agreeable with the second statement. 

From carefully discriminating and deepened observations, it appears that the so-called alternative activists and political associations - across the board - can't get it right.....and really haven't a clue.

 

I also include most of those independent types that have no public relationship with the likes of FFP, Common Party, et al. 

 

Quite sad, actually.

[JAG]

9 minutes ago, lemonjelly said:

Missus used to loathe Thaksin as did most people in the south, but now says things were better under him, the junta have made themselves extremely unpopular and I get the feeling that this is a general consensus..... election time could get ugly enough for another convenient coup.

If a "Thaksin" victory (after 4+ years of junta rule) results in, or is (again) pre-empted by a "convenient" coup (and let's face it, that chap with the bizarre haircut who is now in charge of the army has rather let it be known that he is up for one) then I suspect things could get a bit fraught...

[zzaa09]

Does it truly matter as to any of the said political participants? 

They're all cut from the same cloth, essentially.

 

Nothing changes.

Wish most could figure this out. 

[DrTuner]

Face off all you want, junta rigged the charter, this is just for show.

[kannot]

19 hours ago, webfact said:

"I don't see the singling-out of Thaksin and the Shinawatra family," said government spokesman Puttipong Punnakan.

Take the bag off yer head pal..................on second thoughts...leave it on!

[GreasyFingers]

10 hours ago, JAG said:

One might ask the same question about the junta enthusiasts on here, when the junta inevitably falls...

The new consensus up here is that it is junta's fault for the low prices for rice, ginger, cabbages, makuea, palm oil and whatever other crop with low prices. For me, I do not care as I have my own peaceful dung hill.

[GreasyFingers]

10 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

Does it truly matter as to any of the said political participants? 

They're all cut from the same cloth, essentially.

 

Nothing changes.

Wish most could figure this out. 

As the old saying goes: "it does not matter who you vote for as a politician always wins"

[geriatrickid]

Lovely. Good timing too. Just after peak high season, so the key tourism season won't be ruined. Anyway, I doubt that there will be an election in  February.

[Eric Loh]

On 11/13/2018 at 8:15 AM, webfact said:

Thai junta and Thaksin-backed populists face off

That may be the case in previous times but the current sentiment is rather the "Junta and the People face off". The junta has now become the pariah and disliked by many including their once loyal supporters.