El Nino To Wreak Havoc On Farmers

[Jai Dee]

El Nino to wreak havoc on farmers

The Thai Acro Business Association stated that El Nino phenomenon is expected to occur in Thailand this year, and it will cause dry weather in many areas of the country. As a result, farmers may suffer from pests and plant diseases. The Thai Acro Business Association has advised farmers to be prepared and learn the correct way of using chemicals to protect their crops.

The Rice Research and Development Institute under the Department of Rice is cooperating with the private sector in publicizing the correct method for agriculturists to use chemicals such as pesticides. However, the institute has admitted that not many farmers are interested about the campaign because they are used to the traditional farming method. They also have a wrong belief that the more pesticides being used, the better the crops will be.

The Rice Research and Development Institute said environmental changes have become more apparent and grave. Recently, a much serious plant disease was found in the Rice Research Center in Pathum Thani. However, scientists and officials are hands-on and try to find ways to deal with the problem.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 19 Febuary 2007

[Maizefarmer]

Thanx Jai Dee

I warned farming members last year towards the end of the wet season that this was going to happen (if I may be blow my trumpet for a few seconds).

Guys - the indications are that we are in for a bad one this year.

Get your water/irrigation calcs right else you are going to suffer crop losses.

Maizefarmer

[Jai Dee]

You guys might also want to keep an eye on this thread in the News Forum.

I'll try to keep it up to date as information comes to hand.

[Maizefarmer]

..... and I have a Dept of Met bunch of instruments on my land, the data from which I have access to - so will add anything I see that is relivant for the Loei area (North East) when I get back next month).

Maizefarmer

[Jamie]

I thought that this El Nino has moderated quite a bit from earlier on?

[Jai Dee]

..... and I have a Dept of Met bunch of instruments on my land, the data from which I have access to - so will add anything I see that is relivant for the Loei area (North East) when I get back next month).

Maizefarmer

Good on you Maizefarmer.

[Maizefarmer]

I thought that this El Nino has moderated quite a bit from earlier on?

Nope - worse to come, by my (g)estimate & understanding of the subject.

It's a natural occurance (ocean water temp been the catalyst), but climatic change plays a role - and as scientists have come round to agreeing (at last), climate is changing so much now that it's affect is been felt and seen not over generational time periods, but pretty much over year to year time periods.

Desertification in Northern China and Central Asia is spreading at one mean rate southwards. Although desertification I don't see as been a problem in North Eastern Thailand in my lifetime, I do believe the climatic changes that preceed it are starting to be felt in the North East. We will see more deluges each wet season (very heavy rainfall) causing flash floods and the damage we saw last year. This will become more and more the norm rather than the exception, followed by lenghtly & unpredicatable periods of little to no rain, in turn followed by extremely dry dry seasons, which will become longer and longer.

I am absolutely convinced water will be become a major political issue in North Eastern Thailand over the next 15-20 years - think about it, what will become of those communities which make up those regions (which account for over 2/3rd's of the Thai population).

Some tough desicion making will have to take place (glad I won't be the politition having to make them!!)

Maizefarmer

[jayjayjayjay]

Interesting topic here.

I am now 4 years out of the ag sector in Thailand. But as I do recall, the last time there was an El Nino affecting the Pacific Ocean, the flowing year, commonly referred to at La Nino, did cause very heavy rains across Thailand. I believe early rains came just after the Songran Festival that year and carried all the way through to November. Unfortunety I do not have data in hand for past seasons. This is just a fading memory, but it is very much in contrast to what Jai Dee and Maizefarmer are expecting.

[sbk]

There is often but not always a La Nina year following an El Nino year. no guarantees.

See the NOAA site for all your El Nino, La Nina questions.

from the La Nina FAQ page:

What is La Niña?

La Niña is defined as cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific ocean that impact global weather patterns. La Niña conditions recur every few years and can persist for as long as two years.

What is the difference between La Niña and El Niño?

El Niño and La Niña are extreme phases of a naturally occurring climate cycle referred to as El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Both terms refer to large-scale changes in sea-surface temperature across the eastern tropical Pacific. Usually, sea-surface readings off South America's west coast range from the 60s to 70s F, while they exceed 80 degrees F in the "warm pool" located in the central and western Pacific. This warm pool expands to cover the tropics during El Niño, but during La Niña, the easterly trade winds strengthen and cold upwelling along the equator and the West coast of South America intensifies. Sea-surface temperatures along the equator can fall as much as 7 degrees F below normal.

Why do El Niño and La Niña occur?

El Niño and La Niña result from interaction between the surface of the ocean and the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. Changes in the ocean impact the atmosphere and climate patterns around the globe. In turn, changes in the atmosphere impact the ocean temperatures and currents. The system oscillates between warm (El Niño) to neutral (or cold La Niña) conditions with an on average every 3-4 years.

What causes La Niña?*

Typically, a La Niña is preceded by a buildup of cooler-than-normal subsurface waters in the tropical Pacific. Eastward-moving atmospheric and oceanic waves help bring the cold water to the surface through a complex series of events still being studied. In time, the easterly trade winds strengthen, cold upwelling off Peru and Ecuador intensifies, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) drop below normal. During the 1988- 89 La Niña, SSTs fell to as much as 4 degrees C (7 degrees F) below normal. Both La Niña and El Niñq tend to peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter.

What's the difference between La Niña and El Niño?*

Both terms refer to large-scale changes in sea-surface temperature across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Usually, sea-surface readings off South America's west coast range from the 60s to 70s F, while they exceed 80 degrees F in the "warm pool" located in the central and western Pacific. This warm pool expands to cover the tropics during El Niño but shrinks to the west during La Niña. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the coupled ocean-atmosphere process that includes both El Niño and La Niña.

What are the global impacts of La Niña?

Both El Niño and La Niña impact global and U.S. climate patterns. In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Niña (or cold episodes) produces the opposite climate variations from El Niño. For instance, parts of Australia and Indonesia are prone to drought during El Niño, but are typically wetter than normal during La Niña.

Does a La Niña typically follow an El Niño?

No, a La Niña episode may, but does not always follow an El Niño.

Is there such a thing as "normal", aside from El Niño and La Niña?*

Over the long-term record, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific diverge from normal in a roughly bell-curve fashion, with El Niño and La Niña at the tails of the curve. Some researchers argue there are only two states, El Niño and non-El Niño, while others believe either El Niño or La Niña is always present to a greater or lesser degree. According to one expert, NCAR's Kevin Trenberth, El Niños were present 31% of the time and La Niñas 23% of the time from 1950 to 1997, leaving about 46% of the period in a neutral state. The frequency of El Niños has increased in recent decades, a shift being studied for its possible relationship to global climate change.

How often does La Niña occur?

El Niño and La Niña occur on average every 3 to 5 years. However, in the historical record the interval between events has varied from 2 to 7 years. According to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, this century's previous La Niñas began in 1903, 1906, 1909, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, and 1995. These events typically continued into the following spring. Since 1975, La Niñas have been only half as frequent as El Niños.

How long does a La Niña last?

La Niña conditions typically last approximately 9-12 months. Some episodes may persist for as long as two years.

[jayjayjayjay]

SBK,

Agreed that La Nino does not always follow. At the same time, El Nino is a long way from Thailand at it's source. Thus, I do question the strength of the warning that this is going to be a severe drought year for Thailand.

Really what needs to be added is what is the phenomenen in the Indian Ocean that can potentially join with eastern Pacific currents(El Nino or not) to better understand Asian weather systems. El Nino is close to all the scientists, it would be nice for Australia to take the lead for this region.

[Maizefarmer]

El Nino ........ understand how it affects us specifically in Thailand - the preceeding artical does not detail this too well (it's more a description of the occurance).

It's global effect is a temp rise, it's regional effect is an adjustment in rainfall.

When the Westerly winds are lower than usual (the first indication to meteorolgists that an El Nino is on the way), 2 things occur:

1) the Pacific basin water mass starts to drift Eastwards - away from Australia (and South East Asia), towards South America.

2) with reduced Westerly wind convection cooling, the moisture that would other otherwise normally precipitate in South East Asia increases significantly, but goes easterly with the water mass.

Result (regionaly)

- Reduction in conduction cooling (less Westerly wind)

- reduced humidity

you guessed it - less rain & higher temp.

Don't bring La Nina into this

Westerly Wind speed is down, and Pacific basin water temp increase so far this year is roughly 1.5 degrees C above average, and expected to rise even more - ideal conditions for El Nino to start.

But here's the real significance - for the first time, scientists are predicting that global warming will strengthen El Nino's significantly - what has yet to be establsihed is whether the strengthening will be in terms of intensity or duration (the predomance in academic thought is that the increase will be in duration).

Either way, all the indicators are that we have an El Nino coming and that it is going to be worse than usual.

Look at El Nino (effects in Thailand) against the above background

Historically the Thai Met Depart has a track record of accuartely collating & predicting El Nino data. I am satisfied they have got it right this time as well.

Maizefarmer

La Nina is another matter all together, as has been pointed out

Edited February 20, 2007 by Maizefarmer

[Jamie]

Well we definitely seen the affects of El Nino where I am located from May 06 through January 07. Temps in the summer were some of the hottest on record. We've had drought conditions from May up until now. We had a brown Christmas which is quite rare, infact, we had pouring rain on New Year's Eve. The last time I remember this happening in recent times was back in 1998 when we also had a very strong El Nino. This February has been colder than average though. Two weeks ago we had temps of -40C.

If I can remember correctly from the last El Nino event, conditions did not continue on past spring time.

If you are talking global warming and the changes we have been seeing over the course of the last 5-10 years, that is a different story.

[jayjayjayjay]

La Nino is the flip-side of El Nino. El Nino is on the wane now, so I think it is fair to make this part of the consideration when looking at this years potential weather patterns. From SBK's research above, from the NOAA, you can clearly define there reference to Australian and Indonesia's likely climate effects following El Nino, hence the La Nino

"The La Niña condition often follows the El Niño, especially when the latter is strong." NOAA

"Direct effects of El Niño resulting in drier conditions occur in parts of southeast Asia and Northern Australia, increasing bush fires and worsening haze and decreasing air quality dramatically. Drier than normal conditions are also generally observed in Queensland, inland Victoria, inland New South Wales and eastern Tasmania from June to August." quote wikepedia. Australia has suffered these effects for the last 12 months.

Recent El Niños have occurred in 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, and 2006-2007. These are the most recent of El Nino effects. Australia has been in significant drought for the period if 2006-2007 El Nino effect.

Thailand would not be entering an El Nino now. If there is any influence over Thailand's weather pattern in the next 12 months, it would be from La Nino, thus I thinks it is fair to consider this occurance.

What are the global impacts of La Niña?

Both El Niño and La Niña impact global and U.S. climate patterns. In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Niña (or cold episodes) produces the opposite climate variations from El Niño. For instance, parts of Australia and Indonesia are prone to drought during El Niño, but are typically wetter than normal during La Niña.

"Westerly Wind speed is down, and Pacific basin water temp increase so far this year is roughly 1.5 degrees C above average, and expected to rise even more - ideal conditions for El Nino to start." your quote.

Why then does the NOAA have data specifying the oposite. The March 2006- March 2007 El Nino effect are catorgorised as clearly on the decline. This is the most recent update February 8th, 2007. It does not say La Nino will be in effect, but does say "Synopsis: A transition from weak El Niño conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions is

expected by March-May 2007." I have brought the possibility of La Nino into the picture, because it is far more likely in terms of risk management now than any effect from El Nino.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal...ry/ensodisc.pdf

Agriculture as we have always known it has more risks than Los Vegas could offer us in a lifetime. Growing up and farming a marginal agricultural area in Australia taught me this lesson well. It is easy for ones spirit to be broken time and time again. Now having sold up, I still cringe at the gambling game my old friends are playing, but they do have better tools now than ever before to take calculated risks. Sometimes those risks may involve not even planting a crop or strategically reducing sheep or cattle herds in assumption that something is comming. Almost always against market forces which allows us to build herds after a series of good years. So, which way to go in Thailand now?

I predict early heavier May rains than usual, possibly in mid April but unlikely. A strong bi-model pattern with a 4 week dry period in late June to July and heavy August/September rains going all the way into October, not likely to push into November. This is my gut feel. I have put it on the line here, so why not make your own forecast and we can follow. Jay

[Maizefarmer]

"Westerly Wind speed is down, and Pacific basin water temp increase so far this year is roughly 1.5 degrees C above average, and expected to rise even more - ideal conditions for El Nino to start." your quote.

Yes yes my quote - allow me to correct myself please .....

"Westerly Wind speed is down, and Pacific basin water temp increase so far this year is roughly 1.5 degrees C above average, and expected to rise even more - ideal conditions for El Nino to effect Thailand" - meaning: Thailand bears the brunt of El Nino not in it's early stages, but in it's later stages - it's impact in the Eastern Hemisphere lags behind the Western Hemisphere.

Now I have quoted from an up to date Thai Met paper - written in Thai and dated 18 Feb - so in saying "it is expected to rise even more", I should also correct myself here, and add more accurately that it has retained it's deviation from normal temp.

But with respect to your quotation from the NOAA website. "Synopsis: A transition from weak El Niño conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions is

expected by March-May 2007." - I think you are been somewhat selective in what you have quoted Jayjay. While it would be true to say that indeed conditions are condusive for the developement of La Nina, we are not likely to feel those effects until the coming wet season - when, yes indeed they may well have a significant effect on regional rainfall (.... and back to what I said regards heavy rainfall ect ect .....), that same artical you quote from is somewhat dated (8th Feb). It also goes on to qualify your quote against some considerations, namely (and I quote):

1) "It is still possible for some areas to experience El Niño-related effects during the next month, primarily in the region of the central tropical Pacific".

2) "There is considerable uncertainty in the forecasts for periods after May 2007".

As said, not withstanding what the NOAA said on the 8th Feb (and which hasn't changed much since i.e. the NOAA prediction dated Feb 20 is much the same, excepting for re-calculation of surface temp anomalies), I too had to quote from something, and that was an artical written very much for Thailand and what we are expected to feel in Thailand.

I stand by it - it is my opinion against the background of what I have experianced form the same source (ie. Thai Met Dept) for nearly 2 decades that what they have had to say this time round, is just as good as what they have said in the past - which has always been pretty much bang on the mark in this regard.

But above all - I am not into all this academic cr*p - it takes the subject out of the realms of interest for most readers (and on this I am as guilty as anyone else - if not more so) - it really is only of interest to me in so far as it is going to affect my livelyhood - and after 20 years of watching the subject alot more carefully than the average person in Thailand, all I can say is: take my comments regards El Nino and how it's going to effect Thailand this year (along with global warming) for what you think they worth - and lets wait and see what happens.

La Nina or no La Nina - my feeling is we are in for a scorcher, and by that I mean at least as warm as last year, but quite likely hotter and certainly drier in the North East.

MF

Edited February 21, 2007 by Maizefarmer

[jayjayjayjay]

Maizerfarmer,

Certainly I am as guilty as any at selecting quotes. At the same time, my memory is fading on the good and bad years before 2000. I have found another site focused on predictions. This site does very much support your expectations for below average rainfall. I am not going to be stubborn on the top, but still challenge the status-quo.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n.../text/Asia.html

As I originally felt, this is a very interesting topic, one of which we do not have a magic wand. Only time will tell.

How would you advise local NE farmers on timing of corn and tapioca plantings for the next 6 months?

Regards, Jay

[Maizefarmer]

It's exactly why the subject takes up so much of my time - I can have anything from 300 - 800 rai under maize (corn) every year - and if it fails, I loose both my fresh feed and dry season silage for the next 9 - 12months. Problem is, if that happens this year, chances are I will have a major problem on my hands, as it will be difficult to buy-in forage locally - would have to get it trucked in from Muek-Lek/Pak Chong area (at cost)

So what advise do I have?

Thats a bit of a open question - but following comments are with respect to livestock feed(ing).

What sort of land size are we talking about, are you growing for fresh livestock feed, is it for silage, how much irrigation do you have (and can you afford) ????

Depends very much on what you intend to be doing with the crop, the quantity and irrigation/water status i.e. dam, borehole, river, canal).

In my situation, the calc I have to do is: just how much extra irrigation (if any) can I expect to have to do. I do have and in general can afford to through the dry season - but it costs a fair bit a drive two x 2"rain gun with 260hp 3 days a week through the dry season (38 - 48litres of diesel per hour!! That equates to 12 - 16rai per hour depending on gun speed!).

That is a base example of the sort of costs that have to be calculated and spreadsheeted with income (beef & milk yield) for the same period of time.

Or do I just say sod this - and give up feeding fresh mix for a few months (which means I can slow down or give up on irrigation). To the great credit of farm staff, they pulled together and worked their <deleted> off after I had the accident, so I have over a 1000 tons of silage stocked piled.

..... there are so many issues that have to be considered, it would (could) be irresponsible to comment unless I understand the individual circumstances and seasonal requirements/objectives of that farmer. But broadly speaking, as far as corn and tapioca (and I am not very experianced with tapioca), and only as far as livestock support is concerned, my trend would be:

- No irrigation - err on the side of caution and do not plant for this dry season. Watch forecasts, be ready to plant early and harvest early at the end.

- Have irrigation - plant asap and harvest in 90 - 110 days (depending on corn variety), then leave fallow till first rains for next season are forecast, then get another crop in real quick and hope for the best (i.e. it doesn't get flooded out).

Thats prettyy much the best I could say, till I had additrional detail on the individual circustances and requirements.

MF

Maizerfarmer,

Certainly I am as guilty as any at selecting quotes. At the same time, my memory is fading on the good and bad years before 2000. I have found another site focused on predictions. This site does very much support your expectations for below average rainfall. I am not going to be stubborn on the top, but still challenge the status-quo.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n.../text/Asia.html

As I originally felt, this is a very interesting topic, one of which we do not have a magic wand. Only time will tell.

How would you advise local NE farmers on timing of corn and tapioca plantings for the next 6 months?

Regards, Jay

Edited February 21, 2007 by Maizefarmer

[jayjayjayjay]

MF,

Very much appreciate your detailed reply.

I am based in Chiangmai, we are unquie in that we recieve northern rainfall system sporadically that the NE tend to miss. Out slightly higher altitude helps a little, but not a lot.

You have answered the corn and tapioca questions as best as anyone could. I posed the questions, as they have very different growing systems, one suited to heavier clay and tapioca lighter sands. I did not say, but the questions was based on small farmers without irrigation, how they should respond to the Met Dept reports in terms of maintaining their livelihood over the next 12 months.

Are you Dairy farming? I am interested, I used to run Dee Jay(300 cows) farm in Sa Kae Province. It was a long time ago now, my first 3 years in Thailand. I am now well divorced from that business, but did work in the ag field up until 2002. Interested to hear your story.

Jay

[Maizefarmer]

I am milking just under 400 cows in Loei province, and currently have about 200 beef head.

The advantage small farms have (what is small - anything from 4rai - 10rai) is that it is easy to introduce variation - not so with a big farm (I have 1400rai). It took me 10 years to get it established, to change the setup while maintaining it as a comemricaly vaible venture (and it is very much a business), would take me another 10 years.

But, whatever the size of the farm, you have to have water, and most small farmers (4 to 10 rai) can get by without irrigation - so long as they have access to a water supply - even if it's domestic. Just how much you need wil lcome down to exactly what it is you are growing or feeding. Fruit trees, or vegetables (most of them at least) - turn the tap on and leave it running. Cows and forage crops - you have to have irrigation or it just ain't going to work.

Comes down to what the small farmer is farming (and how much work they wish to do)

MF

MF,

Very much appreciate your detailed reply.

I am based in Chiangmai, we are unquie in that we recieve northern rainfall system sporadically that the NE tend to miss. Out slightly higher altitude helps a little, but not a lot.

You have answered the corn and tapioca questions as best as anyone could. I posed the questions, as they have very different growing systems, one suited to heavier clay and tapioca lighter sands. I did not say, but the questions was based on small farmers without irrigation, how they should respond to the Met Dept reports in terms of maintaining their livelihood over the next 12 months.

Are you Dairy farming? I am interested, I used to run Dee Jay(300 cows) farm in Sa Kae Province. It was a long time ago now, my first 3 years in Thailand. I am now well divorced from that business, but did work in the ag field up until 2002. Interested to hear your story.

Jay

[jayjayjayjay]

MF,

Would love to pay a visit to your farm one day. Not much free time as it is at the moment, but I have the greatest admiration for anyone taking on dairy farming in Thailand.

What is the general breeding / genetics of your herd? Are they from the traditional Aust/NZ shipments, from Chok Chai's X breeds, Israeli, Canadian or selected from all over. I lost track of my friend Mr Wang from Chaiparken in Fang District in Chiang Mai. He had 200 milkers that he sold out about 4 years ago all at the one time. I understand there is enough stock in the country allowing a farm to be set up without need to import as was the case in the 80's.

How are you going with general daily production averages? Are you able to get breeding cycles across the herd to a 12 month cycle?

Jay

[ozzydom]

Just watched a report on Oz tv by an Australian meteorologist who claims that the El Nino effect is waning and indications of a swing to La Nina are now being seen.

He further states that if the swing continues then drought breaking rain is a real possibility this season.

[Maizefarmer]

JayJay

Thats one reason why it's taken so long (the main reason) - establishing a herd and farm model I run.

In the early stages (read as first 10yrs), I tried all sorts of genetics: imported, local mixed and traditional. Some of the imported were capable of very large yields, but the downside was, maintaining them was expensive and the net result was a poor margin - so I gave them up.

Traditional types, although hardyer just yielded to little to make them commericaly viable, as far as milk was concerned, and as far as beef was concerned just didn;t have good enough growth rates.

The best in my case have been genetics sourced from established commercial players (e.g. Thai Danish and Chok Chai, amongst others) - and the big thanx here has to go to the other half, who is a vet and animal geneticist. Thai Danish and Chok Chai have spent decades breeding stock that are a good balance between yield and maintanance cost. That genetic base forms the mainstay of the herd. It's a mix, with black & whites as the dominant gene, originally from Friesland in Holland.

I use the top 15% milkers for calving to replace old stock and maintan the herd at around 380, with around 300 - 340 been milked at any one time.

Thats the long and short of it.

All forage is produced on the farm, and so is concentrate.

MF

[jayjayjayjay]

JayJay

Thats one reason why it's taken so long (the main reason) - establishing a herd and farm model I run.

In the early stages (read as first 10yrs), I tried all sorts of genetics: imported, local mixed and traditional. Some of the imported were capable of very large yields, but the downside was, maintaining them was expensive and the net result was a poor margin - so I gave them up.

Traditional types, although hardyer just yielded to little to make them commericaly viable, as far as milk was concerned, and as far as beef was concerned just didn;t have good enough growth rates.

The best in my case have been genetics sourced from established commercial players (e.g. Thai Danish and Chok Chai, amongst others) - and the big thanx here has to go to the other half, who is a vet and animal geneticist. Thai Danish and Chok Chai have spent decades breeding stock that are a good balance between yield and maintanance cost. That genetic base forms the mainstay of the herd. It's a mix, with black & whites as the dominant gene, originally from Friesland in Holland.

I use the top 15% milkers for calving to replace old stock and maintan the herd at around 380, with around 300 - 340 been milked at any one time.

Thats the long and short of it.

All forage is produced on the farm, and so is concentrate.

MF

MF,

I have been travelling with work and then a little annual leave myself. Looks like the mid-April/early May rains have come, and in quite heavy fashion. Just drove to Phuket and back, I think some areas should have been under water the rain has been that heavy. I still stand by my gut feel for this season FEB 2007 "I predict early heavier May rains than usual, possibly in mid April but unlikely. A strong bi-model pattern with a 4 week dry period in late June to July and heavy August/September rains going all the way into October, not likely to push into November. This is my gut feel. I have put it on the line here, so why not make your own forecast and we can follow. Jay"

With these rains, I think the dry period in bimodel weather pattern will be even stronger, maybe even 6 to 8 weeks dry starting in early June.

Jayjay

[Maizefarmer]

I was waiting to be remainded about this ......... certainly looks like it's going your way - but a little early I think to draw conclusions.

There is always a wet period that occurs when the monsoons swop over from season to season - thats what happening now. Lets wait and see what happens.

MF

[jayjayjayjay]

I was waiting to be remainded about this ......... certainly looks like it's going your way - but a little early I think to draw conclusions.

There is always a wet period that occurs when the monsoons swop over from season to season - thats what happening now. Lets wait and see what happens.

MF

Is only a gut feel I get with each season. Too many years in ag in dry OZ I think. I know how difficult it is anytime to predict weather and when you've got rain or no rain as your choice, then your going to be right 50% of the time. My memory of extremely cold "cool seasons in Thailand" linked also to la nino cycles in past years just tell me this is the likely outcome for this year. Let's wait and see, but round one goes to Jay.

[Maizefarmer]

Jay - round one goes to no one yet: the season has not started, we are still officialy in monsoon swop-over.

By contrast, California (South West & Inland Empire areas) are currently suffering the driest conditions they have had for this period of the year for about 80years!! - fires everywhere (Griffiths Park and Catalina burning).

MF

[jayjayjayjay]

Jay - round one goes to no one yet: the season has not started, we are still officialy in monsoon swop-over.

By contrast, California (South West & Inland Empire areas) are currently suffering the driest conditions they have had for this period of the year for about 80years!! - fires everywhere (Griffiths Park and Catalina burning).

MF

[jayjayjayjay]

JayJay

Thats one reason why it's taken so long (the main reason) - establishing a herd and farm model I run.

In the early stages (read as first 10yrs), I tried all sorts of genetics: imported, local mixed and traditional. Some of the imported were capable of very large yields, but the downside was, maintaining them was expensive and the net result was a poor margin - so I gave them up.

Traditional types, although hardyer just yielded to little to make them commericaly viable, as far as milk was concerned, and as far as beef was concerned just didn;t have good enough growth rates.

The best in my case have been genetics sourced from established commercial players (e.g. Thai Danish and Chok Chai, amongst others) - and the big thanx here has to go to the other half, who is a vet and animal geneticist. Thai Danish and Chok Chai have spent decades breeding stock that are a good balance between yield and maintanance cost. That genetic base forms the mainstay of the herd. It's a mix, with black & whites as the dominant gene, originally from Friesland in Holland.

I use the top 15% milkers for calving to replace old stock and maintan the herd at around 380, with around 300 - 340 been milked at any one time.

Thats the long and short of it.

All forage is produced on the farm, and so is concentrate.

MF

MF,

I have been travelling with work and then a little annual leave myself. Looks like the mid-April/early May rains have come, and in quite heavy fashion. Just drove to Phuket and back, I think some areas should have been under water the rain has been that heavy. I still stand by my gut feel for this season FEB 2007 "I predict early heavier May rains than usual, possibly in mid April but unlikely. A strong bi-model pattern with a 4 week dry period in late June to July and heavy August/September rains going all the way into October, not likely to push into November. This is my gut feel. I have put it on the line here, so why not make your own forecast and we can follow. Jay"

With these rains, I think the dry period in bimodel weather pattern will be even stronger, maybe even 6 to 8 weeks dry starting in early June.

Jayjay

Interested to know how accurate this prediction was relative to Met department predictions of drought?