PM’s remarks raise doubts of curbs on campaigning

[webfact]

PM’s remarks raise doubts of curbs on campaigning

By SOMROUTAI SAPSOMBOON 
THE NATION

 

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha

 

Junta set to lift ban on political activities as stage set for Feb 24 poll.

 

 

WE CAN NOW start counting down – with more confidence – to the national elections after the junta confirmed on Friday that the poll will definitely be held on February 24. The new law on MP elections also comes into effect today. 

 

With the new legislation in effect, the ruling National Council for Peace and Order will have no choice but to lift the restrictions on political activities, which have been in place since the May 2014 military coup. 

 

Nine key junta orders that restricted political activities will be lifted, the NCPO said at its meeting with political parties on Friday. These include the prohibition on political parties convening meetings or organising any political activities, as well as a ban on political gatherings of five or more people.

 

Campaigning can begin from January 2, once the Royal Decree on the general elections is issued. 

 

However, it remains unclear if parties can campaign as freely as in the past. There has been speculation of possible conditions, particularly for major campaigning events, after Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha recently hinted at a “set framework” for campaigning.

 

“Election campaigning must be done within a set framework,” General Prayut said last Thursday. “Permission must be sought on a case-by-case basis and for certain matters. We have to find a way to keep the country peaceful, or chaos will break out before we can achieve democracy.”

 

Observers believe that if free election campaigning were allowed, then the junta leader and the pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party would certainly become fodder for intense attacks from their political rivals. 

 

Election candidates, meanwhile, have to be registered between January 14 and 18. For the first time, the Constitution requires that every political party contesting in the general elections submit a list of no more than three PM candidates to the Election Commission (EC). 

 

It is at this stage that all eyes will be on General Prayut. 

 

Phalang Pracharat is expected to nominate Prayut as its first PM candidate, though he has refused to speak about this possibility so far. 

 

Apart from whether Prayut will be nominated for the candidacy, the other question is whether Phalang Pracharat will nominate two more candidates for the country’s top job and who they will be. So far, it has been speculated that the second and third candidates could well be Deputy PM Somkid Jatusripitak, who heads the government’s economic team, and Industry Minister Uttama Savanayana, who is also party leader, respectively. 

 

Contrary to speculation that the pro-junta party will only nominate Prayut, a source from Phalang Pracharat said it would firmly stick to its original plan of nominating three PM candidates. “Up till now I have heard of no changes,” the source added.

 

Pheu Thai Party, meanwhile, is expected to nominate Sudarat Keyuraphan, who chairs the party’s election strategy committee, as its first PM candidate. It is yet to be seen who will be Pheu Thai’s second and third PM candidates – and if any of the candidates will be a Shinawatra, considering the family has retained power in the party.

 

For Thai Raksa Chart Party, veteran politician Chaturon Chaisang is the top favourite for first PM candidate. This party also has connections with the Shinawatras. 

 

The Democrat Party, meanwhile, is expected to nominate party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as its first PM candidate.

 

Once voting is over, the EC has to announce at least 95 per cent of the results within 60 days, or by April 25. During the 60-day period, the agency has the power to disqualify winners suspected of getting elected using dishonest means or seek the dissolution of parties suspected of fraud. 

 

At the bargaining table

 

At this time, a lot of negotiating, bargaining and manoeuvring can be expected as parties aspiring to form the next government get involved in the numbers game. 

 

It is at this stage, even before the next Parliament convenes, that we will get a clear picture of who will take over as premier.

 

According to the Constitution, the new Parliament must convene within 15 days after the election result is announced, which means no later than May 9.

 

However, the charter has not set any deadline for the naming of a new prime minister. That will mainly depend on who the parties that have won seats in the 500-member House of Representatives will vote on among the nominated PM candidates. 

 

If no accord is reached, the 250 NCPO-appointed senators will be allowed to get involved in the voting to select the next government head.

 

Clearly, a new round of the fight for political power is just around the corner.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30360136

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-12-11

[sjaak327]

7 minutes ago, webfact said:

Election campaigning must be done within a set framework,” General Prayut said last Thursday. “Permission must be sought on a case-by-case basis and for certain matters. We have to find a way to keep the country peaceful, or chaos will break out before we can achieve democracy.”

Oh boy, why even bother to hold elections ?

[Samui Bodoh]

"...Observers believe that if free election campaigning were allowed, then the junta leader and the pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party would certainly become fodder for intense attacks from their political rivals..." 

 

Of course they will; they have been in power (although stolen) for four years. And, baby-man Prayut will not allow the (justified) criticism. I know it, you know it, we all know it. There will be restrictions (read: cheating)

 

"...Once voting is over, the EC has to announce at least 95 per cent of the results within 60 days, or by April 25. During the 60-day period, the agency has the power to disqualify winners suspected of getting elected using dishonest means or seek the dissolution of parties suspected of fraud..." 

 

Once the voting is over, the Junta/Prayut will use the "independent" agency (EC) and all the dirt they have collected for four years to dissolve/ban/negate/disallow/compromise/threaten/co-opt (choose your poison) enough elected people to ensure that their party "wins". 

 

The only way that Thailand might have a reasonable future is if the pro-Democracy parties receive such an overwhelming number of seats that they simply can't be removed or ignored.

 

Given all we know to date, the question must be asked; is it worth it for the parties to participate in this process? Participation gives legitimacy, and if the parties participate, they will not be able to complain later.

 

Given what we see above, what is Thailand's future? I only see two general possibilities. One, a repeat in one form or another of 1992. Second, a slow process of suffocation and stultification as the elites, the Junta, and their cronies smother the life out of the kingdom.

 

These aren't the promised happy days...

 

 

 

[yellowboat]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

“Permission must be sought on a case-by-case basis and for certain matters. We have to find a way to keep the country peaceful, or chaos will break out before we can achieve democracy.”

Already sounds like a waste of time and effort.  Democracy and freedom are chaotic.  The junta is boring, fun sucking, achievement stifling and unfair to the average Thai.   Ask the opposing side for permission to campaign?  Only the dim minds of the junta would think of such a thing.  Thailand is looking more like Burma everyday. 

[zzaa09]

3 hours ago, sjaak327 said:

Oh boy, why even bother to hold elections ?

That's the whole idea.

You'll find out come February. 

 

 

Something's in the works, to be sure.

[Ossy]

There evidently cannot be a fair and 'proper' election, with this maniac at the controls. Unless the Thai people rise up and make a big noise against all this bullying and vote-buying, they can say hello to long-term if not permanent dictatorial rule . . . and they will only have themselves to blame, they will realise, as the freebies and 'Mr Nice Guy' become thin on the ground, once the budget deficit hits the fan.

[zzaa09]

7 minutes ago, Ossy said:

There evidently cannot be a fair and 'proper' election, with this maniac at the controls. Unless the Thai people rise up and make a big noise against all this bullying and vote-buying, they can say hello to long-term if not permanent dictatorial rule . . . and they will only have themselves to blame, they will realise, as the freebies and 'Mr Nice Guy' become thin on the ground, once the budget deficit hits the fan.

Rest assured, the pot of rebellion is simmering....

[Ossy]

2 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

Rest assured, the pot of rebellion is simmering....

You think? And I do hope you're right, zzoo09. What signs of this do you feel? More urban than rural . . . or any other demographic you can put your finger on?

[newatthis]

2 hours ago, Ossy said:

There evidently cannot be a fair and 'proper' election, with this maniac at the controls. Unless the Thai people rise up and make a big noise against all this bullying and vote-buying, they can say hello to long-term if not permanent dictatorial rule . . . and they will only have themselves to blame, they will realise, as the freebies and 'Mr Nice Guy' become thin on the ground, once the budget deficit hits the fan.

You're right, Ossy. Thais do not realize that after this mob gets back in [and they will], all this "nice kind freebie stuff" will go off the agenda. I remember back in 2016 when the referendum was held. They had students from the school marching along the streets telling people to vote. But no one really knew what they were voting for; especially the fully appointed senate. A teacher said: "We're voting to get rid of the army and have elections." 

[Redline]

The deck is stacked, and only one player is allowed to cheat 

[connda]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

“Election campaigning must be done within a set framework,”

"Election campaigning must be done within a set framework" that will ensure that the pro-junta political party has a significant edge in the elections.

Translated: All competing political parties must wear blinders and be hobbled. 

[otherstuff1957]

So, the OP states that campaigning can begin on Jan 2.

 

I was driving on Hwy 4 through Nakhon Pathom and Samut Songkram on Saturday and saw dozens of campaign signs, all for the Palang Pracharat party (the pro-junta party).  I guess that January 2 comes early for SOME parties!  ????

[sjaak327]

8 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

That's the whole idea.

You'll find out come February. 

 

 

Something's in the works, to be sure.

Yes, I now believe they will not disband PTP before the elections, they will disqualify the party after the elections. The sneaky bastards. 

[chama]

15 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

"...Observers believe that if free election campaigning were allowed, then the junta leader and the pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party would certainly become fodder for intense attacks from their political rivals..." 

 

Of course they will; they have been in power (although stolen) for four years. And, baby-man Prayut will not allow the (justified) criticism. I know it, you know it, we all know it. There will be restrictions (read: cheating)

 

"...Once voting is over, the EC has to announce at least 95 per cent of the results within 60 days, or by April 25. During the 60-day period, the agency has the power to disqualify winners suspected of getting elected using dishonest means or seek the dissolution of parties suspected of fraud..." 

 

Once the voting is over, the Junta/Prayut will use the "independent" agency (EC) and all the dirt they have collected for four years to dissolve/ban/negate/disallow/compromise/threaten/co-opt (choose your poison) enough elected people to ensure that their party "wins". 

 

The only way that Thailand might have a reasonable future is if the pro-Democracy parties receive such an overwhelming number of seats that they simply can't be removed or ignored.

 

Given all we know to date, the question must be asked; is it worth it for the parties to participate in this process? Participation gives legitimacy, and if the parties participate, they will not be able to complain later.

 

Given what we see above, what is Thailand's future? I only see two general possibilities. One, a repeat in one form or another of 1992. Second, a slow process of suffocation and stultification as the elites, the Junta, and their cronies smother the life out of the kingdom.

 

These aren't the promised happy days...

 

 

 

The PM and junta are working very hard at alienating the Thai society....so if there is a fair election the junta will be gone and a repeat of '92 may be avoided. Unfortunately it appears that it is likely the election will be manipulated and there is big trouble ahead.