Researchers develop accurate rainfall predicting algorithm

By The Nation

 

 

RESEARCHERS HAVE successfully developed Thailand’s first satellite-based algorithm to accurately estimate rainfall for better water management and flood prevention.
 

“We call this algorithm POP and it has proved to be highly accurate,” King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang (KMITL) lecturer Asst Professor Chinnawat Surussavadee revealed this week. He led the KMITL research team, which created POP in collaboration with the Thailand Research Fund. 

 

Chinnawat said his team focused on developing an efficient tool to predict and estimate rainfall, because Thailand lacks accurate information for effective water management, which is why it is regularly hit by drought and floods. 

 

“There are not many rainfall stations in the country, and that’s why planners don’t have solid information in hand,” Chinnawat pointed out. 

He explained that while a station can forecast the amount of rain that is expected to fall in its own area, this information cannot be used to represent the entire province. 

 

“When rain falls here, it does not mean there is rain in all of Bangkok,” he said, adding that though the authorities already deployed radar in estimating rainfall, these devices were not very accurate because they focus on water elements in the cloud – not actual rain.

 

“Besides, radar devices do not comprehensively cover every part of Thailand,” he said. 

 

Chinnawat said POP, which integrates information from 10 satellites, has proved to be efficient in estimating rainfall. 

 

“We compared the information provided by POP against what is provided by rainfall stations,” he said, adding that POP has already been integrated in the ThailandRain app, which can be downloaded for free to both Android and iOS devices. 

 

Chinnawat also developed WMApp – the first app to provide detailed weather forecasts for Southeast Asia. It can be downloaded for free to both Android and iOS devices and already has more than 150,000 users. 

 

“People can also follow weather updates on the KMITL Forecasts Thai Weather Facebook page,” he said. 

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/national/30360684

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-12-19

23 minutes ago, webfact said:

RESEARCHERS HAVE successfully developed Thailand’s first satellite-based algorithm to accurately estimate rainfall for better water management and flood prevention.

Hmm, perhaps I'm splitting hairs, but those two words seem like an oxymoron to me.

The will have better luck and accuracy predicting to winning numbers in the next lottery draws with this "algorithm"...

Amazing Thailand, "discovering" something many countries have been using for years, I also noticed no mention of computer modelling, in some countries, eg Australia, they have 5 models running, with slightly different parameters, then average them out.

"Accurately estimate" 55555

 

Predictably guess might be more accurate or do they just follow the rainmaking squad on radar 

Edited December 18, 20187 yr by Reigntax

1 hour ago, webfact said:

 

“There are not many rainfall stations in the country, and that’s why planners don’t have solid information in hand,” Chinnawat pointed out. 

He explained that while a station can forecast the amount of rain that is expected to fall in its own area, this information cannot be used to represent the entire province. 

 

I suppose the concept of remote automatic weather collection data has not occurred to these folk? It is existing technology in use across the world.

Rain=wet. No rain=dry. That was cheap with no accurate estimate needed.????

30 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Rain=wet. No rain=dry. That was cheap with no accurate estimate needed.????

Thais seem to have their own very strange awareness regarding rain.
The whole sky opens up, it pours down cats and dogs, the floor is covered with water, and the crackling rain makes a loud noise. I counted 5 of my neighbors standing under the projecting roof at the entrance, stretching out their arms and hands to check if it is raining!?????????

Now that seems to result in an accurate estimate.

Edited December 19, 20187 yr by Lupatria

37 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Rain=wet. No rain=dry. That was cheap with no accurate estimate needed.????

A bit simplistic for us farang dinsdale, but you might be on to something. When is it dry and when is it wet? It's a dilemma for some of these forecasters.

 

And, when it is raining here it might not be raining over there.

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

"When rain falls here, it does not mean there is rain in all of Bangkok,”

 

I had an experience the other month. It was raining, I went outside and there water pouring off the roof, but, when I went around the other side of the house the water was not there. Although it was still raining. Mysterious Thailand!!

 

But seriously; if the water can confuse me - and I'm a weather expert - is it not possible for the water to confuse Chinnawat and his team?

Edited December 19, 20187 yr by owl sees all
inserted 'confuse' instead of 'fool'.

I downloaded the app and accurately estimated that it was going to rain mak mak..

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Chinnawat said POP, which integrates information from 10 satellites, has proved to be efficient in estimating rainfall. 

Yes I have my own algorithm here in Hua Hin. Radar + Satellites equals best guess.  

Edited December 19, 20187 yr by NCC1701A

...and if the estimate is off, they can always send the HokusPokus Flyers up and make some rain!

????

It's about time that Thailand had its very own algorithm... Congratulations.

8 hours ago, webfact said:

King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang (KMITL)

 

4 hours ago, racket said:

I downloaded the app and accurately estimated that it was going to rain mak mak..

Will it work in my area too, or just at the King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang (KMITL) 

With the possible exception of Thailand, where wages tend to be low, meteorology is like baseball. You can earn a million dollars a year, or more, for being wrong two thirds of the time.

12 hours ago, webfact said:

We call this algorithm POP

No explanation what this possible acronym (typically stated by CAP letters of each major word in a phrase or title), but I do know what POOP stands for - who knows maybe more appropriate.

Much cheaper.