An alliance could topple the generals [Editorial]

[webfact]

An alliance could topple the generals

By The Nation

 

 

Anti-junta parties mull a partnership to pry loose Prayut’s grip on

 

An attempt to form an alliance among political parties to block General Prayut Chan-o-cha’s return as prime minister does not seem unusual given the current political climate. To carry any weight, however, it would require the solid support of parties currently sitting on the fence that separates the royalists from the republicans, such as the Bhum Jai Thai Party.

 

Prachachat Party leader Wan Muhamad Noor Matha has floated the notion of a formal alliance inked in earnest, the aim being to fight provisional constitutional rules that give the Senate a role in deciding who will be premier after the election scheduled for February.

 

The idea supports calls by others in the anti-junta camp for a coalition of parties that together win more than half of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives. Such a coalition would technically be able to form a government.

 

The proposed alliance might not be able to bar Prayut from becoming premier, but it could place obstacles in his road back to the office, since he must rely primarily on senatorial support. More importantly, the alliance would vastly improve the anti-junta camp’s ability to win political control after the election – or foster a formidable opposition able, for example, to turn the tide in censure votes.

 

In the present situation, parties sitting on the fence would have to be locked in under signatures to pledges to join the one side or the other. The pro-Prayut camp will be lobbying hard for their support to give him a more stable government, and Wan of Prachachat seeks to make that lobbying futile. He wants a memorandum of understanding committing the signatories to stick together if they collectively win a majority in the House. Already about 20 parties have been approached. Pheu Thai, Thai Raksachart, Pheu Chart and Future Forward have been solicited with confidence – none of these would back a Prayut government. The big question marks hover over Bhum Jai Thai and the Democrats.

 

The alliance pact, if it materialises, would come into effect soon and extend well beyond the election. It would require all members to stick together throughout that period and would probably prohibit campaign offences such as buying votes, hate speech and violence.

The main objective, though, would be to weaken military influence. The parties still wavering will play a critical king-maker role after the election. Even if the pro-Prayut camp wins the 376 votes required to keep him on as premier, it will need other parties’ backing to form a stable coalition. Even if the Pheu Thai camp musters more than 250 House seats, it will need the other parties’ support to forge an effective alliance.

 

The mid-sized parties are thus more important in this election than ever before. In fact, some observers suggest Bhum Jai Thai leader Anutin Charnvirakul could win the biggest prize of all by beating bigger parties’ candidates to become prime minister.

 

Wan’s proposal underlines the highly peculiar and divisive nature of Thai politics. There is nothing new about calls for alliances, military intervention or questions about the underlying objectives of outwardly noble plans. What’s happening now is bolder, though – a bid to wipe out corruption, violence and junta repression all at the same time. We can only hope that such an alliance would not be just another power play pursued without the people’s best interests in mind. 

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30361007

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-12-24

[YetAnother]

24 minutes ago, webfact said:

The idea supports calls by others in the anti-junta camp for a coalition of parties

might be hope for this place after all; about time the military-versus-all-others fronts form

[Thailand]

Really, never thought of that.

 

And the generals response would likely be another coup when the bickering parties can't agree on anything in the unlikely event of them winning.

[z42]

21 minutes ago, Thailand said:

Really, never thought of that.

 

And the generals response would likely be another coup when the bickering parties can't agree on anything in the unlikely event of them winning.

Absolutely right mate, the new army chief has already said publicly that a coup isn't out of the question during his watch. Any dithering or unrest caused by power squabbles after what promises to be a pretty shambolic election will likely be squashed under the boot of another coup, citing national security or some other such nonsense reason.

 

I just can't see these parties compromising (even if it is in the name of the greater good), no entity likes to be subservient here, and especially when power and time at the trough are at stake.

[smutcakes]

It would be interesting to know whether there is a point when even the elected Senate would concede or find it difficult to push Prayuth into power. Say PTP and related parties had 345 votes in the lower house and PPRP 145, it is clear by a margin what the will of the people really is. Would the Senate still be willing to clearly over rule the will of the people by voting on mass for PPRP or would they silently have to concede that it is not what the Thai people want. I think if that happens in could be a real flash point.

[holy cow cm]

And to avoid a new coup, the alliance would need all the generals who are of of non junta loving side to join hands to level the battle front. The Privy council is the control tower that needs to be eliminated. Do that and the Junta loses power. Eliminated I will leave up to your immagjnation.

[scorecard]

1 hour ago, YetAnother said:

might be hope for this place after all; about time the military-versus-all-others fronts form

Good point however do you think this Wan Nor character (lots of past baggage) is the man to lead Thailand forward fast?

 

I don't.

 

[baboon]

1 hour ago, Thailand said:

Really, never thought of that.

 

And the generals response would likely be another coup when the bickering parties can't agree on anything in the unlikely event of them winning.

Another coup of course would be a concern. However the only way it could work so soon after the 2014 coup and all the associated bad memories, would be for the military to take over once and for all and tell an urban society in the 21st Century 'That's it. You are slaves. Our slaves.' Imagine how bad for business that would be...

[sanemax]

13 minutes ago, baboon said:

Another coup of course would be a concern. However the only way it could work so soon after the 2014 coup and all the associated bad memories, would be for the military to take over once and for all and tell an urban society in the 21st Century 'That's it. You are slaves. Our slaves.' Imagine how bad for business that would be...

That would be quite good for business , if they enslaved the entire population and got them to work for nothing , that would reduce the price of exports and make ex-pats living expenses cheaper .

  Quite a good idea

[bannork]

1 hour ago, smutcakes said:

It would be interesting to know whether there is a point when even the elected Senate would concede or find it difficult to push Prayuth into power. Say PTP and related parties had 345 votes in the lower house and PPRP 145, it is clear by a margin what the will of the people really is. Would the Senate still be willing to clearly over rule the will of the people by voting on mass for PPRP or would they silently have to concede that it is not what the Thai people want. I think if that happens in could be a real flash point.

Not an elected Senate but appointed by Prayuth. I agree with you about a flash point. If the Democrats can sign an MO U with PT and its offshoots, and with Bhumjai Thai then I think it will be impossible for Prayuth to be PM.

 

[sammieuk1]

Yes stick together at least until the envelopes prise you apart????

[kannot]

why bother, theyll do what they want regardless and always  will unless you fight on the streets

[baboon]

34 minutes ago, sanemax said:

That would be quite good for business , if they enslaved the entire population and got them to work for nothing , that would reduce the price of exports and make ex-pats living expenses cheaper .

  Quite a good idea

Like the Burmese success story...? 

[pornprong]

2 hours ago, smutcakes said:

It would be interesting to know whether there is a point when even the elected Senate would concede or find it difficult to push Prayuth into power. Say PTP and related parties had 345 votes in the lower house and PPRP 145, it is clear by a margin what the will of the people really is. Would the Senate still be willing to clearly over rule the will of the people by voting on mass for PPRP or would they silently have to concede that it is not what the Thai people want. I think if that happens in could be a real flash point.

If PTP (and friends) win 251 seats in the lower house then the Senate is irrelevant.

The Senate only comes into play if no party can muster the 251 votes required to elect a PM.

SO the answer to your question is no - the Senate will never concede, it exists solely to elevate Prayuth into the Premiership.

[Denim]

What nonsense is this from the Nation ? They are so unbelievably dense sometimes it's hard to believe.

 

Royalists vs republicans ?

There's a defamation case right there for starters.

 

But apart from that idiotic remark it's hard to believe that some people still regard this sham election as being all above board.

 

This thing they are having will only have one outcome. A rubber stamped junta. There will be no relying on a vote from the people.

This circus has been about giving the thing the verisimilitude of an election without having to count on the popular support of the electorate.

 

The junta hand picked men will be counting the ' votes ' and the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

A few little upsets will be permitted to give the whole thing a thin veneer of plausibility but that is all.

 

 

[thaiguzzi]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

An alliance could topple the generals

Lets hope so hey?

3 hours ago, webfact said:

the royalists from the republicans,

Oooof - Republicans. That's a naughty word.

Surprised it's allowed in spoken word or print...

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, pornprong said:

If PTP (and friends) win 251 seats in the lower house then the Senate is irrelevant.

The Senate only comes into play if no party can muster the 251 votes required to elect a PM.

SO the answer to your question is no - the Senate will never concede, it exists solely to elevate Prayuth into the Premiership.

It can all end in the lower house if the alliance works. Prayut’s crooked plan to involve the upper house will not come into play like you indicated. 

 

This may affect the allegiance of the upper house and the senators even appointed may switch side. Really nothing that will hold down their allegiance if Prayut is rendered just another citizen. Just like all previous coup generals, he will face into oblivion; hopefully stand trial for the damages he has caused the country. 

[RichardColeman]

I predict an unexpected landslide win !

[mlmcleod]

The generals created a packed senate to prevent anyone from enacting any legislation they do not like.  The PM does not matter since the military still hold the power in the government with the constitution they crafted.  The elections are just window dressing.