Populism ‘unsustainable’ 

By SOMLUCK SRIMALEE, 
PHUWIT LIMVIPHUWAT, 
KWANCHAI RUNGFAPAISARN  
THE NATION

 

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha yesterday rides a tricycle taxi during his official visit to Nakhon Ratchasima. The premier borrowed the tricycle from Tom Kittisaul, 67, who has ridden it for 25 years. /The Nation

 

Private sector says parties making wild promises; seeks stable post-poll govt 

 

The private sector has warned political parties of budget constraints if they propose contesting populist policies in the coming election while many businesses want to see political stability as a priority. 

 

The post-election government should focus its economic policies on promoting Thai-manufactured goods and industry 4.0 transformation, support small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and boost Thai exports, they said. 

 

 

Most political parties are espousing economic policies that involve high budget spending when the country has a limited revenue potential from the current tax system, chairman of the tax and regulation committee of the Board of Trade, Kitipong Urapeepatanapong, said.

 

“No political party is stating clearly how they will finance their populist policies. This means all their economic policies, especially those involving spending for ageing people, lower-income people and children cannot be implemented when they form the government,” Kitipong said.

 

For example, one political party has a policy to increase monthly payments to citizens aged above 60 to Bt3,000 per month.

 

Currently, the government spends between Bt60 billion and Bt70 billion for a monthly subsidy of Bt600 per person, per month, according to Finance Ministry reports.

 

When this monthly subsidy is hiked to Bt3,000 per head monthly, the government will need much more than the current Bt70 billion a year, but the political party does not say how it plans to increase revenue to fulfil its promise, he said.

 

“In my view, most of the economic policies that promise payments to people cannot be implemented, as parties are not revealing how they will meet the budget demands, which cannot be achieved without increasing tax revenue,” Kittipong said.

 

Some policies will involve amending taxation laws but they do not say what they will do, he said.

 

“That’s the reason why their economic policies cannot be implemented when they form the government,” he said.

 

Punyapon Tepprasit, chief executive officer of MVP Consultant and MBA lecturer in industrial management, Ramkhamhaeng University, said it is a matter of concern that most political parties are proposing populist policies to gain votes by targeting segments of society. Populist policies in many foreign countries have led to collapse of the economic system, Venezuela being a prime example. Political parties mostly likely to receive a majority of votes are Democrat, Pheu Thai and Phalang Pracharat, he said. 

 

While the Democrats are focused on tackling poverty, its rival Pheu Thai is laying emphasis on strengthening SMEs, which cover a large section of domestic businesses in almost all sectors as a real driver of the economy for the long term, he said. 

 

The pro-junta Phalang Prachart formulated its policies in line with the 20-year national strategy for continuity of the current economic regime, Punyapon said. 

 

Investors in the stock market, however, hope for political and economic stability after the election to boost capital inflows into the Stock Exchange of Thailand. “For investors, it is not important which political party forms the new government, as long as it can offer stability and there is no political turmoil,” said Paiboon Nalinthrang-kurn, chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisation (Fetco). Political protests after the election could damage the economy and hurt investor sentiment, he said. 

 

Also, he added, foreign investors were particularly worried that the new government would be weak, which could lead to political unrest.

 

The new government should promote industrial goods that are made in Thailand with a “make in Thailand” policy in order to support the growth of the manufacturing sector, suggested Kriengkrai Thiennukul, vice chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI). The new government should give priority to the distribution and consumption of Thai manufactured goods, he said. 

 

“Furthermore, the new government should continue to support the development of industry 4.0 in the country,” he added. “This includes supporting industrial transformation through promoting the adoption of new innovative technology by manufacturers, or through increasing the workforce’s digital capabilities.”

 

Kriengkrai also urged the new government after the election to continue to develop S-Curve industries in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), a flagship project launched by the junta-backed government. 

 

Speaking on the sliding export figures since mid-2018, the FTI vice chairman urged the post-election government to push for new free-trade agreements in new markets, mentioning Africa and Russia as potential targets for Thai exports.

 

The new government should support the development of SMEs, especially their digital transformation, as well as the reskilling of the workforce, said Yunyong Thaicharoen, first executive vice president and head of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB)’s Economic Intelligence Centre.

 

He called for a holistic and detailed action plan by the new government to support SMEs and develop the skills of the Thai workforce.

 

With people seeking higher incomes, the most effective method to increase the workforce’s income would be to add value to both SMEs and the workforce through digitisation and reskilling, respectively, he said. 

 

Furthermore, the new government should also continue the current public investment plans, especially in infrastructure, such as mega-transport projects, or in the EEC,” he added.

 

“Public investment will be a key driver of economic growth this year. We have predicted that public investment will grow by up to 7.2 per cent, and will be directed to the EEC and other mega-projects initiated by the government,” he said.

 

Yunyong said he did not think that the upcoming election would have any disruptive impact on the overall public investment figures.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30365781

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-03-14

It might not be sustainable but the military grip on the government is as they burned it into the constitution

populism is how you get elected by an uniformed or uneducated electorate especially when you lack any actual platform or policies.

promise em the moon, neglect to deliver.

worked for thaksin .... proven strategy.

In more advanced countries like my own election programs are tested by an independent organisation that puts all of them in computer models (with varying economic outlooks) and see if they are viable. This way you can't be voted in by promising things you can't financially pay for.

 

Levels the playing field. I recently found out that not many countries do such a thing. I guess they don''t mind people getting elected on false promises that can't be kept.

 

I would not know how this would work in Thailand as finding an truly independent organisation is hard.

 

I do find it a big sham that the parties not state how they are going to finance it. Its all parties who do this so its the norm. It certainly is stupid that this is allowed. 

58 minutes ago, webfact said:

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha yesterday rides a tricycle taxi

Three wheels on my wagon, and I'm still rolling along...

3 hours ago, metempsychotic said:

populism is how you get elected by an uniformed or uneducated electorate especially when you lack any actual platform or policies.

promise em the moon, neglect to deliver.

worked for thaksin .... proven strategy.

It worked for the Greek governments as well. Until the country went bankrupt. Party til you drop. 

6 hours ago, robblok said:

In more advanced countries like my own election programs are tested by an independent organisation that puts all of them in computer models (with varying economic outlooks) and see if they are viable. This way you can't be voted in by promising things you can't financially pay for.

 

Levels the playing field. I recently found out that not many countries do such a thing. I guess they don''t mind people getting elected on false promises that can't be kept.

 

I would not know how this would work in Thailand as finding an truly independent organisation is hard.

 

I do find it a big sham that the parties not state how they are going to finance it. Its all parties who do this so its the norm. It certainly is stupid that this is allowed. 

You forgot to mention that the organisation testing the programs of political parties is a government organisation, which might mean that there might be a pressure on the outcome of those tests.

Also, there is absolutely no control whatsoever if said political programs are indeed followed after the elections.

In fact, sadly, elections have been degraded to a x-yearly happening with no real influence on what the next government will do.

8 hours ago, robblok said:

In more advanced countries like my own election programs are tested by an independent organisation that puts all of them in computer models (with varying economic outlooks) and see if they are viable. This way you can't be voted in by promising things you can't financially pay for.

 

 

1 hour ago, hansnl said:

You forgot to mention that the organisation testing the programs of political parties is a government organisation, which might mean that there might be a pressure on the outcome of those tests.

Also, there is absolutely no control whatsoever if said political programs are indeed followed after the elections.

In fact, sadly, elections have been degraded to a x-yearly happening with no real influence on what the next government will do.

Can you imagine the shenanigans which would result if such an idea was to be introduced here!

 

The suggestions that the Electoral Commission are perhaps not entirely even handed would pale into absolute insignificance!

Bhumjaithai - free marijuana.

 

Seems like a vote winner to me. What more do you need to know?

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Populism ‘unsustainable’ 

Populism is very sustainable when the incumbent has unlimited taxpayer Thai Niyom funds to throw around while on his mobile cabinet meetings. His followers on the ground in the provinces and the villages look forward to his generous "unconditional" financial support.

Incredibly, no mention of population control by any of them!!!

12 hours ago, JAG said:

 

Can you imagine the shenanigans which would result if such an idea was to be introduced here!

 

The suggestions that the Electoral Commission are perhaps not entirely even handed would pale into absolute insignificance!

I can't see it working here at this moment because of the corruption and military control. 

 

Having said that the lying and cheating here about the election programs is just crazy. Promising things they can't finance just to get voted in. Total sham IMHO.

 

Does not mean I want the junta back, just means the political parties are also not following the rules like in normal countries. Just shows that the political parties just like the junta don't care much about fairness and honesty. Just getting in power by all means even if it means lying.

 

 

14 hours ago, hansnl said:

You forgot to mention that the organisation testing the programs of political parties is a government organisation, which might mean that there might be a pressure on the outcome of those tests.

Also, there is absolutely no control whatsoever if said political programs are indeed followed after the elections.

In fact, sadly, elections have been degraded to a x-yearly happening with no real influence on what the next government will do.

You are Dutch, I can't recall that organisation ever being called bias. In Thailand that might be the case as everything here is bias.

 

Its not about controling if programs are followed, its about making sure they can't promise things that are financially viable. Two totally different things, this is about not starting out with cheating the first step. Whatever happens later can happen, but at least they don't get voted in on promises that are not fiscally sound. This means they also have to show the bad things.. increases in tax ect. 

 

Its 10x more fair then all the other systems, at least there is an equal playing ground to begin with.

 

I agree you can't just introduce this in Thailand, but that does not mean I have to accept how far removed elections here are from fair elections even by politicians design.  The politicians themselves don't want change, they want to keep on lying to get in power. 

Just when we thought we seen the last of the populist policies being rolled out, in step the PPRP with “ we can do better” policies announced today. Seeing their chance eroding, they now promise minimum wage at 400-425 B, 10% cut personal tax, 18k for skilled worker , 20k for bachelor degree and a minimum price for 6 crops. Economists called that unsustainable and will cause inflation to sky rocket. But that desperate and reckless pro Prayut party will care less and he want that gig regardless. Didn’t the previous government got into trouble due to these policies? 

A chicken foot in every pot with a bottle of lao khao ! Vote for me.

Populism has not been a meaningful term in Thailand for a long time. It is code for Thaksinism. I remember hearing well-heeled Bangkokians criticizing Thaksin's policies that were giving mobile phones and motorbikes to farmers. Populism, the screamed into their Nokias. But mobile phones and motorbiles are also agricultural tools

 

If politicians didn't make rash promises, they would never get elected.  

 

Populism in Thailand means anything that helps the poor.

Edited March 15, 20197 yr by mommysboy

On 3/15/2019 at 5:03 PM, Father Fintan Stack said:

 

• Thailand repaid its debts to the International Monetary Fund two years ahead of schedule

actually that was achieved by the government of chuan leekpai