Rising household debts could impact consumer spending: NESDC

By THE NATION

 

 

HOUSEHOLD DEBTS are on the rise and could suppress consumer spending as well as people’s ability to repay their debts, the state think-tank National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) warned yesterday.

 

Household debt in the fourth quarter of last year rose 6 per cent to Bt12.8 trillion or equivalent to 78.6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

 

Debts in the first quarter of this year have been on the rise as consumer loans have hit a 10.1 per cent increase, a record high in five years, NESDC secretary-general Thosaporn Sirisumphand said. 

 

“Debts below 80 per cent of the GDP is an acceptable level, but must be closely monitored,” he said. 

 

Household debts may drop in the near future as the central bank has imposed tough measures to keep a check on home loans since April. The central bank designed a so-called loans-to-value (LTV) system to limit loans for second homes or houses purchased for investment purposes, he said. 

 

Consumers, however, are having accumulated debts, as they had bought the new homes before the LTV came into effect, while many also fell for deals offered by automakers for new models. Mortgages account for 49.9 per cent of consumer loans. 

 

Consumer bad debt, meanwhile, has risen to Bt120 billion, recording a 9 per cent increase, similar to the 9.1 per cent rise in the previous quarter. These bad debts now account for 27.8 per cent |of total non-performing loans, the |highest proportion in the past 13 quarters. 

 

In comparison, the amount of unpaid credit-card bills dropped 3.6 per cent, compared to a 0.3 per cent increase in the previous quarter.

 

Since consumer loans are on the rise, the NESDC said the authorities should impose new measures such as targeting groups that have accumulated high levels of debt. 

 

Auto loans also show signs of quality degradation and new measures for them may be appropriate, Thosaporn said, adding that new measures should also ensure that consumers have access to loans at reasonable interest rates. 

 

Meanwhile, though unemployment dropped to 0.9 per cent, or 350,000 individuals, the tight labour market could be affected if the US-China trade war escalates and affects industries and the tourism sector. Tourists from China and the US account for 30 per cent of total arrivals in Thailand, and employees in the tourism sector are usually on a short-term contract making them vulnerable to impacts on the sector. 

 

The trade war is also expected to hurt the world economy. 

 

Employment, meanwhile, has risen 3.2 per cent in the non-agriculture sector and 10.5 per cent in the construction sector, though it has only risen by 1 per cent in the manufacturing sector. Employment in hotels and restaurants contracted by 0.2 per cent.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/business/30370686

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-06-07

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So what? as long it goes well, it goes well!  Sabai sabai.

The rising food prices(which seem to rise every week at the moment)  will also have an impact on household spending. 

Actually I used to think that Thailand was a 3rd world country prior to moving here in 2003. 

 

All I have seen for the last 16 years is that Thais are living it up more than Westerners.

 

Despite the household debt I still fail to understand how they do this.

 

Meanwhile, my home currency keeps dwindling away as does my buying power. I really do hope their bubble bursts soon, or mine will.

1 hour ago, LazySlipper said:

Actually I used to think that Thailand was a 3rd world country prior to moving here in 2003. 

 

All I have seen for the last 16 years is that Thais are living it up more than Westerners.

 

Despite the household debt I still fail to understand how they do this.

 

Meanwhile, my home currency keeps dwindling away as does my buying power. I really do hope their bubble bursts soon, or mine will.

don't worry.. the gas that powers most of Thailand's power stations will be exhausted in another 5 years, AI will decimate a lot of Thai better paid (than agriculture) jobs.. and as for tourist numbers, all the people I know in the tourist industry say it is very quiet... but hey, the Chinese will come to the rescue.. sshhh... don't mention the Chinese Banks that have gone bust, having to be rescued by the Chinese Central Bank.. don't worry, don't worry, everything is under control... well, Thailand always has the wisdom of the sacred cow to fall back on....

The illusions of prosperity, globally, is fueled by easily attainable debt offered by financial institutions who are over-extended themselves but simply can not stop offering predatory interest rates.

 

It's unsustainable in the long run.  Virtually all prosperity is a debt-trap, and one day the piper must be paid.

On 6/7/2019 at 9:44 AM, milesinnz said:

don't worry.. the gas that powers most of Thailand's power stations will be exhausted in another 5 years

 

I would like to believe that, in hopes that it will bring the Bht to a more reasonable value...

 

BUT... where do you get the statistics to claim such a thing. I would like to read up on that if you can point me in the right direction.