Thai Baht Hits New Nine-year High

[Old Man River]

The BOT is as keen to weaken the baht as any of us.

Today's Bkk Post talks of a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee yesterday in which it was urged to cut interest rates by as much as one percent over the next few months in an attempt to weaken it.

Yesterday's newspaper (can never remember if it was BP or Nation) had a very good article by Korn Chatikavanij, Dep. Secretary General of the Democrates (and highly regarded banker) which was directed at Chalongphob, who I expect is his good friend. Korn calls for interest rates to be cut by 2% or more (to zero).

If you get a chance, you might want to read it. At the very least, you can expect it will be the basis for the Democrates economic positions in the next election.

[gummy]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

Yes will do wonders for tourism?

Remember when it was 43 B to the UKP not many tourists then.

Are we going the same way again.

Paul

Well at that time for UK tourists to Thailand, costs were reletively higher. Also in the UK interests rates were much higher than currently so many people may have been unable to take long haul holidays owing to local financial constraints, which also affected other destinations, not only Thailand.

[Prakanong]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

Yes will do wonders for tourism?

Remember when it was 43 B to the UKP not many tourists then.

Are we going the same way again.

Paul

Well at that time for UK tourists to Thailand, costs were reletively higher. Also in the UK interests rates were much higher than currently so many people may have been unable to take long haul holidays owing to local financial constraints, which also affected other destinations, not only Thailand.

I remember getting only 37THB I think it was and only 34THB chaning in the UK.

The growth in the tourist industry is not down to just the higher GBP to THB rate as the above poster pointed out.

It would be interesting to see the arrival figures though pre and post 1997 broken down into countries.

Plenty of tourist here pre 97 I remember but there has been spectacular growth doen to many factors including the internet, propensity to take long hal holiday's - the price in pounds for those holidays is cheap or cheaper now than ever

Just look at flight price issued on WestEast this week - in relative terms very very cheap and cheaper in actual price than my flights over a dozen years ago

[paulmw]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

Yes will do wonders for tourism?

Remember when it was 43 B to the UKP not many tourists then.

Are we going the same way again.

Paul

Well at that time for UK tourists to Thailand, costs were reletively higher. Also in the UK interests rates were much higher than currently so many people may have been unable to take long haul holidays owing to local financial constraints, which also affected other destinations, not only Thailand.

A well back to sunny Spain

[wrassell]

Money is like water in that it will find its level over time. As my buying power here in Thailand has lost about 20 percent over the last year I may opt to spend my hard earned cash eleswhere. This in addition to the price of beer chang going up, makes other places to live more inticing. It is my money and I can spend it anywhere I like. One other thing that sticks in my mind is that they the thais never let you forget that you are only a visitor here. With the way they are handleling buying a house and investing here I think they are biting the hand that feeds them. Surely the neighboring countrys will fill the gap. I think only until they have lost alot of revenue will they wake up, the bad thing is that it will be the poor that have to endure the loss as in '97.

[Naam]

If you look at the past year, the baht's gains have been mostly against the US dollar. R DAY! As they say, a billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking real money.

if you look at the graphs of the past two years it shows clearly a strong Baht (OFFshore NOT onshore rates!):

THB GBP

THB EUR

THB USD

Edited March 14, 2007 by Dr. Naam

[Naam]

"I understood that the Thai govt. was proping up the baht by pumping loads of money into the market to support the currency as required, as well as the current trading restrictions?"

*****

how many bottles of Chang?

[Sing_Sling]

On-shore, Off-shore.

When converting $60k, should that then be done outside or inside the country?

[backflip]

"...the Iraqi war costs, which is currently costing the US taxpayers $1.5 BILLION PER DAY!"

"Great stuff, Hurricane. "

Wrong stuff, Hurricane. The Iraqi war is costing the US $1 billion per week.

[Naam]

On-shore, Off-shore.

When converting $60k, should that then be done outside or inside the country?

which country???

[SNGLIFE]

The baht is NOT up. The dollar is DOWN!

Get it right...sheez..! The dollar will continue to slide against world currencies. It was predicted and it has been happening; and it is predicted to continue for the foreseeable future.

[dogleg]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

I can remember when ... I had enough money to give a ######!

Now I'm happy.

Swings and Roundabout people.

[Brutiniero]

SNGlife, have a close look at DrNams Charts, a close one

[lannarebirth]

Just curious. Is anyone here short the $USD against another major currency or basket of currencies? If so, how far woud the $USD have to rise from it's present level for you to cover your short position? TIA

[Naam]

The baht is NOT up. The dollar is DOWN!

Get it right...sheez..! The dollar will continue to slide against world currencies. It was predicted and it has been happening; and it is predicted to continue for the foreseeable future.

sure! and you as well as all the prophets who are making these predictions will soon be billionaires when your dollar shorts pay off. isn't it?

p.s. i am now listening to the dollar bashing since more than a quarter century. a bunch of my friends listened to it too and believed in it. they are still driving during rush hour to some stupid office doing eight hours of stupid work and then drive home during the evening rush hour...

...whereas my (not so) humble self (with my overweight of dollars) enjoy a retiree's lifestyle since seventeen years, three months and fourteen days.

[admiraldy]

I am a Forex trader , and i used to live in thailand for 10 years , i left last year .

Let me tell you one thing about the thai baht from my experience , it has nothing to do with fundemantal or technical issues , it is mainly speculation trading . there is nothing fundemantal to support the baht so be warry for a sudden drop like the thai stock market did .

[Naam]

SNGlife, have a close look at DrNams Charts, a close one

Brutiniero,

have you ever tried to discuss a van Gogh painting with a blind man?

[longway]

Thai baht hits new nine-year high

BANGKOK: -- The Thai baht hit a new nine-year high against the dollar on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the army-backed government will soon lift controversial currency controls, dealers said.

The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.

The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.

--AFP 2007-03-14

Does anyone else feel this is giving things a false sense of security? How can this currency hold against

the world's other currencies when there is nothing to promote such activity? A unstable government,

a South in turmoil and discord and a nation under threat of insurgency. What is propping this over-

value up?

Well the other key currencies also don't look that bright. USD: the disaster in Iraq, danger of attacking Iran, rumours that some countries change from USD-Euro.

While Euro: the countries have all different opinions, some even tell they want to switch back (thats of course only propaganda for the most stupid voter, but not increase confident).

So in that compare the Thai baht does not look that bad.....

Bad news

Nothing can justify that the monkey money is so high, Euro is going down too with USD (43.6B)

Thai economy is not stable at moment, everyone have to be careful about investing in Thailand now

dont clean ur ears whatever u do, ur brain might fall out.

Dont worry.........the Baht will go down, next week........ofcourse.......I already told them to do so........maybe Tuesday or Wednesday, OK ?

OK fair enough.

[konangrit]

If you look at the past year, the baht's gains have been mostly against the US dollar. R DAY! As they say, a billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking real money.

if you look at the graphs of the past two years it shows clearly a strong Baht (OFFshore NOT onshore rates!):

Any chance of an onshore comparison?

[Nemothepemo]

Since my pension is in US dollars it does not look good. I have checked some currency trader websites (just google Thia baht vs. USD) and the forcast is not good for the dollar. The projection is by the end of July the rate will be at 32 baht/USD. When I first came here 2 years ago it was 42baht/USD. I think this is not because the baht is doing so good it is because the US dollar is doing so badly. In the past 2 years it went from 1.13 Euro to 1.31 Euro. Thank you President Bush

I understood that the Thai govt. was proping up the baht by pumping loads of money into the market to support the currency as required, as well as the current trading restrictions?

There is a big difference between the ofshore exchange rate and the onshore rate.

Couple this with the investment market blues here, the all but dead housing market, and lack of direction from the govt. and the picture is not very bright for the not too distant future.

Only the big housing project companies keep telling you how good it is and you should buy now, but they would, wouldn't they.!!

It will reach a point where the baht will collapse if the govt. does not get the policy right very soon as confidence is waning fast.

Most foreign money has left for safer regions, foreign house buyers are scared to buy, foreign companies holding houses are very worried, and foreigners are frightened to bring money in in case there is yet another change of rules and they lose it all.

Never mind the 30% witholding....

Add the unrest in the south and possible bomb attacks elsewhere.....

Big business is looking elsewhere to develope and all short/medium term signs look very negative at the minute, all these factors are only just starting to creep into the market and as always it will take time to surface.

The trouble is the Thai govt. just seems to be content to let it happen, they are only concerned with the welfare of the Thai people, so if the foreigner should lose out..tough luck..after all you are only a visitor here??!!

The average Thai on the street doesn't get it yet. They love their Mobile Phones and their Honda "Clicks". Wait until the tourists who usually show up for "high" season don't come. When the vendors see their incomes cut in half while the cost of a Coca Cola goes up to 30 baht, they will wake up. It will be interesting to see this unfold. I think it may be time to move farther away from Ground Zero !!!

[Nemothepemo]

Since my pension is in US dollars it does not look good. I have checked some currency trader websites (just google Thia baht vs. USD) and the forcast is not good for the dollar. The projection is by the end of July the rate will be at 32 baht/USD. When I first came here 2 years ago it was 42baht/USD. I think this is not because the baht is doing so good it is because the US dollar is doing so badly. In the past 2 years it went from 1.13 Euro to 1.31 Euro. Thank you President Bush

I understood that the Thai govt. was proping up the baht by pumping loads of money into the market to support the currency as required, as well as the current trading restrictions?

There is a big difference between the ofshore exchange rate and the onshore rate.

Couple this with the investment market blues here, the all but dead housing market, and lack of direction from the govt. and the picture is not very bright for the not too distant future.

Only the big housing project companies keep telling you how good it is and you should buy now, but they would, wouldn't they.!!

It will reach a point where the baht will collapse if the govt. does not get the policy right very soon as confidence is waning fast.

Most foreign money has left for safer regions, foreign house buyers are scared to buy, foreign companies holding houses are very worried, and foreigners are frightened to bring money in in case there is yet another change of rules and they lose it all.

Never mind the 30% witholding....

Add the unrest in the south and possible bomb attacks elsewhere.....

Big business is looking elsewhere to develope and all short/medium term signs look very negative at the minute, all these factors are only just starting to creep into the market and as always it will take time to surface.

The trouble is the Thai govt. just seems to be content to let it happen, they are only concerned with the welfare of the Thai people, so if the foreigner should lose out..tough luck..after all you are only a visitor here??!!

The average Thai on the street doesn't get it yet. They love their Mobile Phones and their Honda "Clicks". Wait until the tourists who usually show up for "high" season don't come. When the vendors see their incomes cut in half while the cost of a Coca Cola goes up to 30 baht, they will wake up. It will be interesting to see this unfold. I think it may be time to move farther away from Ground Zero !!!

re: Pension and the US Dollar. I am in the same boat, my Social Security will not meet the 65K baht per month requirements for my "O" retirement visa if the dollar keeps falling. Today I went down to immigration and asked them what was going to happen....Was I going to be deported ?? Immigration said "Don't worry....we will make the difference." I have no idea what that means. Anyone else have an answer ????

[PeaceBlondie]

Thanks to Dr. Naam and admiraldy for showing that the baht is way too strong against the USD, the pound, and the euro, and it can only be attributed to speculation. Could some hedge funds and other speculators with lots of nerve and deep pockets be doing this so they can make a trillion or two, and then (hopefully!!) let the rate go back to 43:1 against the USD?

[VegasVic]

I am a Forex trader , and i used to live in thailand for 10 years , i left last year .

Let me tell you one thing about the thai baht from my experience , it has nothing to do with fundemantal or technical issues , it is mainly speculation trading . there is nothing fundemantal to support the baht so be warry for a sudden drop like the thai stock market did .

It is good to see someone who knows what is really happening here. The situation with the TB is simply an imbalance of TB vs. other currencies(mostly US dollars) that are being converted to TB in order to speculate in the Thai stock market. This imbalance will be rectified at some point this year when the speculative fever in the Thai market ends and the hedge funds begin to sell out of the Thai markets and redeem TB back to their own currency. When this happens there will be a whipsaw effect and the TB is likely to see the mid 40's vs. the US dollar for a while until it eventually settles in the 40-42 range where it seems to have been for the last few years. I have traveled thouout Thailand for the last 3 months and I know for certain that the rise in the TB is not due to booming economy. From the taxi drivers to the merchants to anyone who is trying to sell a house or land in thailand it is quite apparent that tourists are not spending the dollars they use to spend and the real estate sector is hurting in most of the country(except for the bubble in Phuket and Pattaya which seems to be uneffected as of yet) and the export sector is getting killed. The US dollar is a completely different issue, the US government has encoureged a weak dollar the last couple of years in order to help the US trade imbalance and this will continue until the US economy slows down and the consumers stop the buying spree. When this slowdown in the US economy happens there will no longer be a need for the government to encourage a weak dollar because trade imbalnces will improve as the consumers in the US slow ther purchases of foriegn goods. These are all very basic cycles that have happened time and again, the only difference this time is the scope of the swings due to the heavy involvement of the growing hedge fund sector and their speulative impact on markets. As far as Thailand goes I just hope that they get decent constitution and and a democratically elected government before year end so that the long term economic growth of the country can be adressed and some sort of confidence in the government can be reestablished. In regards to the Phuket and Pattaya bubble, just remember nothing goes up in a straight line forever, it seems the greater fool theory is in full effect in those two areas and I just hope that no Thai Visa members get caught without a seat when the music ends!

[admiraldy]

:

Edited March 14, 2007 by admiraldy

[admiraldy]

The baht is NOT up. The dollar is DOWN!

Get it right...sheez..! The dollar will continue to slide against world currencies. It was predicted and it has been happening; and it is predicted to continue for the foreseeable future.

sure! and you as well as all the prophets who are making these predictions will soon be billionaires when your dollar shorts pay off. isn't it?

p.s. i am now listening to the dollar bashing since more than a quarter century. a bunch of my friends listened to it too and believed in it. they are still driving during rush hour to some stupid office doing eight hours of stupid work and then drive home during the evening rush hour...

...whereas my (not so) humble self (with my overweight of dollars) enjoy a retiree's lifestyle since seventeen years, three months and fourteen days.

Dr Naam , just a small piece of advice it is always safer and wiser to diversify to at least 2 currencies

[beerchang]

Sorry if this has been pointed out but i haven't time too read all the posts.

About 6 months ago, if I had £10,000 sent to me in LOS (from UK obviously), I would receive about 750,000 bht.

Right now at www.xe.com the baht is at 64.0036. So I would receive 640,000 bht. I lose about 100,000 bht! (please don't pick on the maths...it's all 'about')

I don't see that as a 9 year high. Anyone else?

The Dollar's down, the £'s up, the Baht's 'kinda doin' stuff......it's all so,so random isn't it?

Life goes on. Let's go with it eh!

[doodex66]

The baht is NOT up. The dollar is DOWN!

Get it right...sheez..! The dollar will continue to slide against world currencies. It was predicted and it has been happening; and it is predicted to continue for the foreseeable future.

sure! and you as well as all the prophets who are making these predictions will soon be billionaires when your dollar shorts pay off. isn't it?

p.s. i am now listening to the dollar bashing since more than a quarter century. a bunch of my friends listened to it too and believed in it. they are still driving during rush hour to some stupid office doing eight hours of stupid work and then drive home during the evening rush hour...

...whereas my (not so) humble self (with my overweight of dollars) enjoy a retiree's lifestyle since seventeen years, three months and fourteen days.

Oh well......opinions may differ

http://dissidentnews.wordpress.com/2006/12...ollar-hegemony/

Edited March 14, 2007 by doodex66

[Kimera]

Thai baht hits new nine-year high

BANGKOK: -- The Thai baht hit a new nine-year high against the dollar on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the army-backed government will soon lift controversial currency controls, dealers said.

The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.

The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.

--AFP 2007-03-14

£ = 66.15 Today BKK bank no 12% drop over the last year less than 3% ?

[Khun Bob]

Best to get your money exchanged at the British Embassy as they state there is 75 baht to £1 ! - seem to have locked in the best rate over the past 2 years !

well at least now super cheap cider in the UK is the same price as chang in Thailand - if only whisky could be as cheap in the UK as it is in Thailand...

seriously though - when and if the baht does crash down, as it did in '97, that will be a good opportunity to buy large - and hopefully by then currency controls will be out of the way...

Anyone know a good bank to hold THB outside of Thailand in preparation for this event ?

[ThaiGoon]

Best to get your money exchanged at the British Embassy as they state there is 75 baht to £1 ! - seem to have locked in the best rate over the past 2 years !

well at least now super cheap cider in the UK is the same price as chang in Thailand - if only whisky could be as cheap in the UK as it is in Thailand...

seriously though - when and if the baht does crash down, as it did in '97, that will be a good opportunity to buy large - and hopefully by then currency controls will be out of the way...

Anyone know a good bank to hold THB outside of Thailand in preparation for this event ?

Why do you wanna hold THB and hope and wait for it to crash? Does this really make sense to you after you think it through? You are hoping and preparing to lose a lot of money?

Edited March 14, 2007 by ThaiGoon