Finance Minister vows more action if baht continues rapid appreciation

[saengd]

8 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

That forecast seem perfectly reasonable. You don't know what it takes into account.

 

There are many possible BOT policy changes however what the BOT does or doesn't do, is anyone's guess. The BOT has been talking and talking for many months, which only resulted in the baht increasing in strength. The only action the BOT has taken is stated in the article. All the BOT actions, including the 0.25% interest rate drop has resulting in only 0.2 baht increase for a USD, which is insignificant.

 

With high season just starting, that 0.2  baht improvement will quickly disappear. Without more BOT policy changes, and numerous significant changes, USD will be below 30 baht by January 2020.

 

If you go to the link provided by the OP in his post you can see exactly what the forecast takes into account - you should perhaps look at the USD/GBP forecast from that site and try to explain how they arrive at such ludicrous numbers.

 

And BOT has now all but eliminated outbound capital controls, that is not factored in and it will have a significant effect.

 

https://longforecast.com/usd-to-bht-today-forecast

[30la]

You again? Words, words, words, constructive criticism would be more appropriate but for this you must have studied the subject properly!

[Youlike]

On 11/8/2019 at 7:54 AM, quadperfect said:

I see them in villa market. Thats my farang measuring device.

 

So the tourists from N-Europe now go to supermarkets instead of restaurants?? Is that a good sign? It's good sign for an overvaluated Baht that's for sure.

[saengd]

Interest rate vs bond yields, just for one confused poster:

 

BOT sets the bank lending rate, that in turn is the base that determines the interest rate paid on retail (consumer) savings accounts and the interest rate payable on loans.

 

Bond yields are more complicated and are not directly linked to the BOT base rate. Yield (total return) is determined by the face value, the time to maturity remaining and the original purchase price, the economic state of health of the issuer and the demand for the bonds also play a role. The coupon rate of a bond is fixed at the outset and remains unchanged until the bond is redeemed and is paid out at predetermined intervals, typically annually or semi annually. High quality bonds are attractive to overseas investors because they are easily resalable, the return is higher than that offered by retail banks and they are backed by the government/BOT........that's why foreign investors buy into the Thai bond market and are not interested in just the headline interest rate.