Would Chinese imports have any impact on this??

 

What are you saying? Your boss continues to tell us that the Thai economy has been growing steadily since 2014, in 2019 and 2020 expects an increase of around 3%!
Once I hope your boss is right!

14 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Many countries around the world are feeling the same global slowdown, however the smart ones are on top of the situation and made or making changes to stay in business. 

The present USA admin is doing a good job of managing their economy, recession averted, onward and upwards.????

The media only presents gloom & doom, China economy still growing at +6% a year.

 

The overheated economy is due for a massive correction. And it may make the 2007 recession look mild. There is way too much air in the balloon. If they had simply let a number of huge banks fail, way back when, it might not have to be like this. But the obsession with keeping the economy humming, and looking healthy, and never allowing a correction to take place, is going to come back, and bite in a big way.

 

Frankly, I foresee the DOW dropping to 4,000 points, and the US property market dropping by 60%. What will happen here is anyone's guess. I do believe the economy needs to correct. 

 

Alot of the talk about the economy doing so well is way overplayed. Yes, the stock market is up. And some segments of the economy have done well. But, benefits have dropped, wages have not gone up in proportion to the massive inflation we have seen here, and in the US (despite protestations to the contrary) and the quality of life for the vast majority of people has declined. The top 10% are doing quite well.

16 minutes ago, Duck J Butters said:

I went to buy a used 2016 Mercedes SLK 200 ( 25,000 km mileage ) for my wife in Bangkok the other day. The asking price was 2.5 million. I offered a 2.3 million baht bank transfer right there on the spot. The dealership rejected my offer. I was stunned. I could buy this same exact car in the US for 700,000 baht. I felt sick paying 1.8 million baht extra for a car that's not all that special...but the wife wanted it.

 

Clearly the Thai car dealerships aren't struggling that much because they literally turned down a 2.3 million baht sale, a squabble of 200,000 baht. They clearly think they can get the 2.5 million from some other schmuck. I refused to cave to their pressure as this Mercedes dealership was extremely rude, pompous, and just didn't seem to care about my business.

When business is bad, Thais tend to raise prices to "compensate".

 

An old British friend from UK/Hong Kong tells me that this is the south east Asian way.

 

Maybe part of the same mentality?

Waiting for the first strikes hit bangkok again

2 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

The overheated economy is due for a massive correction. And it may make the 2007 recession look mild. There is way too much air in the balloon. If they had simply let a number of huge banks fail, way back when, it might not have to be like this. But the obsession with keeping the economy humming, and looking healthy, and never allowing a correction to take place, is going to come back, and bite in a big way.

 

Frankly, I foresee the DOW dropping to 4,000 points, and the US property market dropping by 60%. What will happen here is anyone's guess. I do believe the economy needs to correct. 

 

Alot of the talk about the economy doing so well is way overplayed. Yes, the stock market is up. And some segments of the economy have done well. But, benefits have dropped, wages have not gone up in proportion to the massive inflation we have seen here, and in the US (despite protestations to the contrary) and the quality of life for the vast majority of people has declined. The top 10% are doing quite well.

Around 2008 Western gvts reinforced the notion with banks that they wouldn't be allowed to fail.

 

They weren't too big to bail, a consequence could be that things/banks could end up being be too big to bail? Deutsche Bank being a prime candidate?

3 minutes ago, Andrew65 said:

Around 2008 Western gvts reinforced the notion with banks that they wouldn't be allowed to fail.

 

They weren't too big to bail, a consequence could be that things/banks could end up being be too big to bail? Deutsche Bank being a prime candidate?

And around ten years prior to that, the top finance guys from the Western nations met, and essentially agreed that no matter how heinous the crime, nobody at a very high level within the financial or banking community, would ever be tried for a crime. And how many have been tried since then? How many since Charles Keating? Dimon, Blankfein, Stumpf, Geithner, and many others should be serving very long prison sentences. Mnuchin too. He is heinous beyond description. 

4 hours ago, jlwilliamsjr18 said:

Agreed.  This condition is nothing new. It's been coming for a long time. Young Thais are way over their heads in debt (virtually 80% of GDP is debt), unchecked expansion, construction etc, and unmonitored tourism will not make it all good. At the same time blaming expats and others doesn't help either. 

Ah yes; Thailand....the 'Hub' of blaming others for everything !

An off topic post and reply has been removed. 

11 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

And around ten years prior to that, the top finance guys from the Western nations met, and essentially agreed that no matter how heinous the crime, nobody at a very high level within the financial or banking community, would ever be tried for a crime. And how many have been tried since then? How many since Charles Keating? Dimon, Blankfein, Stumpf, Geithner, and many others should be serving very long prison sentences. Mnuchin too. He is heinous beyond description. 

Max Keiser concurs!????

(Mr Munchkin, the Israeli Ambassador).

4 hours ago, Andrew65 said:

I was first in Thailand in 1985 when it was dirt cheap, it just ain't any more. A much wealthier country, for one thing.

Or a much more indebted one, depending on how you measure wealth.. 

Look Chaps; no worries, the Employment Dept have just said yesterday that they have 80,000 new jobs waiting to be filled by people across the skills board !   Where these jobs have suddenly materialised from only they know ?

Just in time for the once a month "sale day" the government is promoting! - good job

15 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

Worst is yet to come.

With all such bad news, how come the Baht is gaining in value?? Obviously international investors believe in the Thai economy, rightly or wrongly

Thailand's economic demise will be a footnote in world history.

 

The world economy is headed for a recession. China won’t be there to save it this time

 

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3037081/world-economy-headed-recession-china-wont-be-there-save-it-time

 

This has been coming for a while now.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/recession-warnings-pile-up-for-the-battered-global-economy?

 

More recently,

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/10/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html

 

Germany may already be in a recession.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/effc1c60-f3f3-11e9-b018-3ef8794b17c6

 

Watch for their figures due out on Thursday.

1 hour ago, Duck J Butters said:

I went to buy a used 2016 Mercedes SLK 200 ( 25,000 km mileage ) for my wife in Bangkok the other day. The asking price was 2.5 million. I offered a 2.3 million baht bank transfer right there on the spot. The dealership rejected my offer. I was stunned. I could buy this same exact car in the US for 700,000 baht. I felt sick paying 1.8 million baht extra for a car that's not all that special...but the wife wanted it.

 

Clearly the Thai car dealerships aren't struggling that much because they literally turned down a 2.3 million baht sale, a squabble of 200,000 baht. They clearly think they can get the 2.5 million from some other schmuck. I refused to cave to their pressure as this Mercedes dealership was extremely rude, pompous, and just didn't seem to care about my business.

And your wife's response was?

Almost all of the restaurants we eat at have raised their prices considerably over the past 5 - 6 months. Some are now on par with US prices, which is absurd for the portion and quality of what you’re getting. I don’t care what someone tries to explain to me, doubling your price is just pure greed. I’m looking forward to seeing them go out of business. Most of them do so it’s only a matter of time.

15 hours ago, metisdead said:

Off topic posts about the UK and Brexit have been removed. 

Thank you. The focus is on Thailand and sone use any article as a springboard for other agendas.

59 minutes ago, Duck J Butters said:

I went to buy a used 2016 Mercedes SLK 200 ( 25,000 km mileage ) for my wife in Bangkok the other day. The asking price was 2.5 million. I offered a 2.3 million baht bank transfer right there on the spot. The dealership rejected my offer. I was stunned. I could buy this same exact car in the US for 700,000 baht. I felt sick paying 1.8 million baht extra for a car that's not all that special...but the wife wanted it.

You guys never have learned how to say ''no'' ?

Particularly when it's as crazy to do something as you write just here.

I wish your ''wife'' wasn't too upset by the no deal

1 hour ago, Duck J Butters said:

I went to buy a used 2016 Mercedes SLK 200 ( 25,000 km mileage ) for my wife in Bangkok the other day. The asking price was 2.5 million. I offered a 2.3 million baht bank transfer right there on the spot. The dealership rejected my offer. I was stunned. I could buy this same exact car in the US for 700,000 baht. I felt sick paying 1.8 million baht extra for a car that's not all that special...but the wife wanted it.

 

Clearly the Thai car dealerships aren't struggling that much because they literally turned down a 2.3 million baht sale, a squabble of 200,000 baht. They clearly think they can get the 2.5 million from some other schmuck. I refused to cave to their pressure as this Mercedes dealership was extremely rude, pompous, and just didn't seem to care about my business.

Thai car dealerships are loath to deal with cash buyers regardless of what class of car they're after. It's been like that as long as I can recall. Even someone haggling for a price break on a new Suzuki Swift will see the salesperson's eyes glaze over before they drift back to their smartphone.

16 hours ago, yogi100 said:

It's not just factories that are struggling and it's all because of the strong baht.

 

I got talked into buying a girl a bottle of San Miguel beer last night at a cost of 140 baht (nearly four quid in UK money) That's in an open air beer bar! I won't be doing that again in a hurry.

 

That same beer in the same bar was 130 baht the last time I was in Pattaya in July. It's now the start of high season and that bar is not much busier than it was back then.

 

Punters can't afford these prices any more than foreign importers can afford to buy Thai exports at such inflated prices.

I am buying San Miguel beer in a lady bar here in the Philippines today for 45 Peso (27 Baht) !

10 minutes ago, Vacuum said:

And your wife's response was?

No sex for the next 6 months

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

There were 1,339 factories with 34,569 employees and a total investment of approximately Bt56.9 billion registered for sale or out of business in the first 10 months of 2019, according to the Industry Ministry.

The numbers say nothing if I can´t compare them with the years before and with the number of new factories. 

3 minutes ago, CNXexpat said:

The numbers say nothing if I can´t compare them with the years before and with the number of new factories. 

I think it is safe to assume if this was not a reversal of the preceding year's growth trends, then the Industry Ministry wouldn't be mentioning it.

16 hours ago, yogi100 said:

It's not just factories that are struggling and it's all because of the strong baht.

 

I got talked into buying a girl a bottle of San Miguel beer last night at a cost of 140 baht (nearly four quid in UK money) That's in an open air beer bar! I won't be doing that again in a hurry.

 

That same beer in the same bar was 130 baht the last time I was in Pattaya in July. It's now the start of high season and that bar is not much busier than it was back then.

 

Punters can't afford these prices any more than foreign importers can afford to buy Thai exports at such inflated prices.

Same with the Aussie dollar. Petrol is  near as damn it the same price as Australia.A cup of coffee in a coffee shop is about  same .

3 hours ago, Guderian said:

Sheesh, another so-called story backed-up by ludicrous and irrelevant numbers. The Thai workforce is getting on for 40 million people, and we're supposed to get alarmed because some factories employing 35,000 people - around one-tenth of one percent of the workforce - might or might not be in trouble? Give us a break and get some meaningful statistics, please!

It would be interesting to know what proportion of the 40 million you talk about work in "conventional" manufacturing industries, as opposed to 1 or 2 man workshops, retail and service industries, education and civil service/police/military, and or are engaged in small scale essentially peasant farming. Once all those are taken into account I rather suspect that the pool of workers affected by these closures and job losses is very significantly smaller, and the percentage hit therefore much greater.

5 hours ago, thailand49 said:

Don't worry the Chinese and Indians are coming to save the day!  One day it is good one day it is bad! 

 

Does this mean for retirees and others no more income verification, no more money in the bank, no more TM-30, reduce ATM Charges, no more duel pricing?????

I doubt it.The first time I saw the "thai way"was about 20 years ago in Pattaya.they was a big slowdown of tourists,so what happened? All the bar prices went up, to screw the fewer customers more.The logic defied me .I always thought more bums on seats lower the prices and  sell more but that's not the "Thai way" 

5 hours ago, jlwilliamsjr18 said:

It's been coming for a long time

Every year for the last 10 years according to everyone on here and i'm still waiting

I certainly don't expect it happening soon 

Over that time numerous companies have relocated factories to Thailand and is still an attractive proposition for many, regardless of the bahts strength

Hundreds of expats/ wannabe economists have consulted their crystal balls with stories of doom and gloom but not one has yet to be correct

 

 

 

16 hours ago, Yadon Toploy said:

There are dozens of major companies out on the Eastern Seaboard in trouble. Many are shuttering up for a few months and laying off staff. 

 

There's major trouble ahead.

Dont worry The Military men, the ex Army now running  Thailand  know what to do, They are learning From Burma, N. Vietnam, Cuba, its all under control