Thailand Is Down...

[jasreeve17]

I have lived in Thailand for four years, and have also come on two holidays per year for ten years prior to that.

I go "out" about once every three months, and tonight was one of those days. I went to three or four of the big tourist spots in Bangkok and was very very surprised.

Empty.

Not 100% empty, but around 90% empty - It's a Friday night and I have never seen things like this before. The Thais were dumbfounded, had the music and electricity half off, were sitting around looking depressed, and, when questioned had no answers. They did say "If the lack of tourists continues then we will go bust within 4 - 6 weeks." - these were the busy places!

Thinking about it:-

1) I got offered three jobs this week, from people that wouldn't usually speak to me.

2) I booked a holiday for next week, and in varoius hotels (Samui, Lanta, Chang) was offered the cheap rate instead of the hoiliday period rate. - that's a 70% discount.

My feeling is that things have shifted. I've physically seen it (I think) rather than the talk of - the government policies, blah blah, nationalism, blah blah, safety issues, blah blah, etc, blah blah.

Is it starting?

[jasreeve17]

I was home by 23:30 - that's never happened before.

The last six months have been particularly tough on foreigners, but Thailand seems not to have suffered any consequences. My suggestion is that the suffering is starting...

[Thai-Spy]

Could be the visa (and other) regulations really starting to kick in. It's been 181 days since 1 Oct. 2006 after all and tomorrow makes 6 months exactly.

[Austhaied]

It's called "Karma".

[jasreeve17]

Could be the visa (and other) regulations really starting to kick in. It's been 181 days since 1 Oct. 2006 after all and tomorrow makes 6 months exactly.

Good point. I think that you might be right.

[jasreeve17]

It's called "Karma".

Good point, & I think that you might be right.

(re your essendon pic - I used to think that Aussie rules was stupid. Then I spent 3 months in Darwin, watched a few games, and loved it... a great day out, add the beers & )

[PeaceBlondie]

Are we imagining that this new set of visa rules, affecting only non-tourists who sneak in on a stamp that isn't even a visa, is changing the entire landscape of Thailand? Nah, that's narcissism. Most of us long-term farang were always here on long (extendable) visas, or we've gotten more permanent in the last six months. John K insists the vacancy rate in his condo has decreased about half as badly as he predicted it would be. If there's been a mass exodus, and no newcomers to replace them, it would have been more obvious. Unless, of course, we never made a difference in the first place, and nobody's noticed if our numbers have dwindled.

Maybe what you're seeing, is that the party is over. Not sure what party that was, though.

Even the EFL teachers can't predict if May will be a crisis in hiring white-skinned half-qualified teachers. Even if there is a shortage, they may just be replaced by Filipinos. Or Burmese and Singaporeans.

Are there half-official guestimates of how low the high tourist season was this year?

[Thai-Spy]

Changing the landscape of Thailand? No. Nationwide the new regs aren't going to matter much. In places where the legitimate short-stay tourists go the new regs aren't going to matter much. But certain areas and business segments where the chronic visa runners were in a higher percentage are certainly going to start feeling it soon.

It wouldn't be that surprising to see VE regs tightened even further, to perhaps 60 visa-less days per year. The vast majority of true tourists wouldn't even approach using up that quota. If the government likes extra money from selling extra tourist visas, what's to stop them? Any income they've seen so far has been diluted a bit by the appreciation of the baht, but there's still more out there to be made.

Meanwhile watch more bars than usual go up for sale, more cheap apartments to stand empty, low-to-mid range restaurants shuttered, mostly in the farang ghettoes.

[jasreeve17]

Are we imagining that this new set of visa rules, affecting only non-tourists who sneak in on a stamp that isn't even a visa, is changing the entire landscape of Thailand? Nah, that's narcissism. Most of us long-term farang were always here on long (extendable) visas, or we've gotten more permanent in the last six months. John K insists the vacancy rate in his condo has decreased about half as badly as he predicted it would be. If there's been a mass exodus, and no newcomers to replace them, it would have been more obvious. Unless, of course, we never made a difference in the first place, and nobody's noticed if our numbers have dwindled.

Maybe what you're seeing, is that the party is over. Not sure what party that was, though.

Even the EFL teachers can't predict if May will be a crisis in hiring white-skinned half-qualified teachers. Even if there is a shortage, they may just be replaced by Filipinos. Or Burmese and Singaporeans.

Are there half-official guestimates of how low the high tourist season was this year?

I agree that it's very hard to say, because we just don't know.

I suspect that Thai-spy has a valid point. When Jackgolf and others can no longer fill up (or even get enough people to warrant a trip) a coach or two a day then it is significant. It adds up to a couple of thousand people a month - not the be all and end all, but still significant.

Add a couple of thousand more that don't want to risk violence, for their holiday (junta / southern violence).

Add a couple of thousand more who chose a cheaper destination (baht at 32 / 33 / 34 to the dollar, etc).

Add a couple of thousand more who worry about the new airport (people are really worried about flying. Never mind adding the airport runway fiasco).

Add...

It'd be very easy to get to a figure of 10,000 a month, who are no longer here. Would this effect tourism in Bangkok? I think so.

I wouldn't listen to JohnK's opinions too closely...

I also felt that we were not significant enough for the Thais to worry about, but I'm not sure, money is money.

EFL teachers... why would they want to replace native speakers with Filipinos? Burmese, ha, ha - no way. Singaporean, ha ha - no way.

But, I do accept your point. - I just don't know.

Previously, I felt that we foreigners made no difference. Tonight, I thought that I saw a real impact (negative) on Bangkok and Thai people. But, I'm not sure...

Hence, I appreciate your thoughts.

[jdinasia]

I certainly am not seeing it ... business seems to be very strong everywhere I go. The few folks that can't manage to scrape together a few $$'s to get a real visa aren't going to be missed that badly.

[JiveTalker]

I have lived in Thailand for four years, and have also come on two holidays per year for ten years prior to that.

I go "out" about once every three months, and tonight was one of those days. I went to three or four of the big tourist spots in Bangkok and was very very surprised.

Empty.

Not 100% empty, but around 90% empty - It's a Friday night and I have never seen things like this before. The Thais were dumbfounded, had the music and electricity half off, were sitting around looking depressed, and, when questioned had no answers. They did say "If the lack of tourists continues then we will go bust within 4 - 6 weeks." - these were the busy places!

Thinking about it:-

1) I got offered three jobs this week, from people that wouldn't usually speak to me.

2) I booked a holiday for next week, and in varoius hotels (Samui, Lanta, Chang) was offered the cheap rate instead of the hoiliday period rate. - that's a 70% discount.

My feeling is that things have shifted. I've physically seen it (I think) rather than the talk of - the government policies, blah blah, nationalism, blah blah, safety issues, blah blah, etc, blah blah.

Is it starting?

Just like to add a couple of points.

Here in Phuket the usual lively bars and clubs are quieter. I'm talking about Phuket Town and not Patong by the way. This is including places where I often don't see many foreigners drink.

Having spoken to some Thai friends they have said that people simply don't have as much spending money as they did before? I guess that any downturn in tourism would be felt by a lot of people in Phuket.

[jasreeve17]

I certainly am not seeing it ... business seems to be very strong everywhere I go. The few folks that can't manage to scrape together a few $$'s to get a real visa aren't going to be missed that badly.

I suspect that at the moment it is very specific to certain areas / places / market niches.

i.e. Ranong has a 30 day stamp industry that will be decimated.

Also, areas of Bangkok nightlife were 75%+ down tonight.

Is this limited impact Important?

Will it expand?

Previously I thought not, but now I'm half thinking about changing my mind.

[jasreeve17]

Just like to add a couple of points.

Here in Phuket the usual lively bars and clubs are quieter. I'm talking about Phuket Town and not Patong by the way. This is including places where I often don't see many foreigners drink.

Having spoken to some Thai friends they have said that people simply don't have as much spending money as they did before? I guess that any downturn in tourism would be felt by a lot of people in Phuket.

Interesting point.

If the Thais are struggling, and the Thai economy is on a slow down, then the lack of every tourist / foreigner / money spender will be felt harder.

[jdinasia]

I certainly am not seeing it ... business seems to be very strong everywhere I go. The few folks that can't manage to scrape together a few $$'s to get a real visa aren't going to be missed that badly.

I suspect that at the moment it is very specific to certain areas / places / market niches.

i.e. Ranong has a 30 day stamp industry that will be decimated.

Also, areas of Bangkok nightlife were 75%+ down tonight.

Is this limited impact Important?

Will it expand?

Previously I thought not, but now I'm half thinking about changing my mind.

I assume you must have been going to an expat oriented place ...... if so why would it be anything other than the average annual hide-out before they run away to avoid songkran? But I can hardly think that your subjective observations on one night shows any pattern at all .... keep at it for a couple of months and let us know!

[jasreeve17]

I assume you must have been going to an expat oriented place ...... if so why would it be anything other than the average annual hide-out before they run away to avoid songkran? But I can hardly think that your subjective observations on one night shows any pattern at all .... keep at it for a couple of months and let us know!

I agree that it's only a single night of observations. Hence, I wanted other peoples input, to add weight (or not) to this subjective observation, thus making it a little more objective.

[jdinasia]

I assume you must have been going to an expat oriented place ...... if so why would it be anything other than the average annual hide-out before they run away to avoid songkran? But I can hardly think that your subjective observations on one night shows any pattern at all .... keep at it for a couple of months and let us know!

I agree that it's only a single night of observations. Hence, I wanted other peoples input, to add weight (or not) to this subjective observation, thus making it a little more objective.

Your wording with every reply seems to be directed at making things seem like your assumptions are right .... keeping it subjective

Edited March 30, 2007 by jdinasia

[jasreeve17]

I assume you must have been going to an expat oriented place ...... if so why would it be anything other than the average annual hide-out before they run away to avoid songkran? But I can hardly think that your subjective observations on one night shows any pattern at all .... keep at it for a couple of months and let us know!

I agree that it's only a single night of observations. Hence, I wanted other peoples input, to add weight (or not) to this subjective observation, thus making it a little more objective.

Your wording with every reply seems to be directed at making things seem like your assumptions are right .... keeping it subjective

Would you prefer me to word my posts to suggest that I'm wrong?

[endure]

It's called "Karma".

Good point, & I think that you might be right.

(re your essendon pic - I used to think that Aussie rules was stupid. Then I spent 3 months in Darwin, watched a few games, and loved it... a great day out, add the beers & )

Essendon? I used to go to school in Essendon.

[Ijustwannateach]

A number of my lower-income friends from the country have given up on Bangkok- costs have risen too high without much noticeable improvement in lower-income salaries. It's back to farming and country life for them- that doesn't have much to do with foreigners, but with a more general economic downturn- my richer Thai friends also agree that's what's in the cards, presently.

Even my friends who formerly felt themselves as being "comfortably well off" are beginning to feel a bit nervous, as the strength of the baht (or the weakness of the dollar) have reduced their pensions by as much as 20%, and there are at least a few teachers here who have salaries that are dollar-denominated, who must be feeling a bit sick at the stomach.

"S"

[jasreeve17]

It's called "Karma".

Good point, & I think that you might be right.

(re your essendon pic - I used to think that Aussie rules was stupid. Then I spent 3 months in Darwin, watched a few games, and loved it... a great day out, add the beers & )

Essendon? I used to go to school in Essendon.

Aren't they the Man U of Aussie rules?

[endure]

It's called "Karma".

Good point, & I think that you might be right.

(re your essendon pic - I used to think that Aussie rules was stupid. Then I spent 3 months in Darwin, watched a few games, and loved it... a great day out, add the beers & )

Essendon? I used to go to school in Essendon.

Aren't they the Man U of Aussie rules?

Dunno, it's all so long ago

[Maigo6]

All the while there are poor women and boys for men to exploit, there will always be those that travel to Thailand and other south east asian countries.

Close up the beer bars and other sexually orientated establishments , and Thailand will be very short of so called ' Tourists '.

It's a sad state of affairs, but in my opinion, it's the way it is.

[noungning]

i've talked to my bf and he's a taxi driver. [please don't tackle me if there is any disliking towards any taxi driver] he's told me it's been really slow. as i would have no idea because i live here in the states. but i've heard him say this for the past couple of months, there'd be odd days that people would come out. but like someone mentioned, he did say it tends to get quiet because people saves up for songklarn.

i'll be heading there and hoping it will still be just as lively as it was last year

[jasreeve17]

Thanks for your posts, kind folk.

I'm off to bed.

[sutnyod]

Also, areas of Bangkok nightlife were 75%+ down tonight.

Maybe the preachers were sighted near those venues ....(there was a thread in General Topics earlier, but the vide was so horrible I refrain from posting a link)

[Flysiam]

i've talked to my bf and he's a taxi driver. [please don't tackle me if there is any disliking towards any taxi driver] he's told me it's been really slow. as i would have no idea because i live here in the states. but i've heard him say this for the past couple of months, there'd be odd days that people would come out. but like someone mentioned, he did say it tends to get quiet because people saves up for songklarn.

i'll be heading there and hoping it will still be just as lively as it was last year

Not saying that it ISN'T actually slower - but I have NEVER had a taxi driver tell me anyting other than "it's really slow" when I ask them how it is going - and I do ask quite often regardless of the economic situation in LOS.

Who would try to tackle you - even if they were to dislike taxi drivers

[LaoPo]

Jasreeve17 and others seem to have a point that 'business' is slowing down and that's worrying.

The question remains....why, how come....

I suppose there is not 1 single reason but a combination of several reasons.

The odd thing is that there are also signs that it is difficult to book a ticket TO Thailand or trouble with booking the return-flight. It could be however that fewer planes are flying to LOS and that those which are, are fully booked.

Let's wait and see.

LaoPo

Edited March 31, 2007 by LaoPo

[JR Texas]

i've talked to my bf and he's a taxi driver. [please don't tackle me if there is any disliking towards any taxi driver] he's told me it's been really slow. as i would have no idea because i live here in the states. but i've heard him say this for the past couple of months, there'd be odd days that people would come out. but like someone mentioned, he did say it tends to get quiet because people saves up for songklarn.

i'll be heading there and hoping it will still be just as lively as it was last year

Not saying that it ISN'T actually slower - but I have NEVER had a taxi driver tell me anyting other than "it's really slow" when I ask them how it is going - and I do ask quite often regardless of the economic situation in LOS.

Who would try to tackle you - even if they were to dislike taxi drivers

JR Texas: I have lived in Thailand, on and off, for over 20 years.

I think people (many on this forum) have grossly underestimated the negative impact resulting from changes to the visa and business rules and regulations....especially over the past two years.

Many of my friends...good people that loved Thailand....left about 2 years ago...others more recently. Some uprooted their entire businesses and moved to places they thought were more expat/business friendly. Others are wanting to leave........but are not sure where to go next.

The idea that the rules/regulations are only affecting "poor quality fake tourists" is naive. The idea that they were only designed to address crime is also naive. The message they have sent is clear: We do not want you here. This is good for places like Vietnam, the Philippines, and China, and probably even Cambodia.

Expats and business entrepreneurs like stability......they want to feel welcome. They don't like being jerked around and treated like garbage. They don't like rule changes in the middle of the game.

There are other factors at work: too many working age people, too few quality jobs, horrendous educational system, rising tide of xenophobia, deteriorating environment, lack of press freedom, extreme economic inequality between those that own virtually everything (1%) and those that own virtually nothing (99 %), and the failure of globalization to improve the quality of life for the majority.....this is true in Thailand and elsewhere.

Its crunch time............ouch! I hope Thailand finds a solution soon.

[Master of the court]

Jasreeve17 and others seem to have a point that 'business' is slowing down and that's worrying.

The question remains....why, how come....

I suppose there is not 1 single reason but a combination of several reasons.

The odd thing is that there are also signs that it is difficult to book a ticket TO Thailand or trouble with booking the return-flight. It could be however that fewer planes are flying to LOS and that those which are, are fully booked.

Let's wait and see.

LaoPo

Well, I just got tickets to Thailand from Japan in the Japanese GoldenWeek.........normally you will have to book 6 month before to make sure to get a ticket.........I just asked last week and got 3 tickets........WOW

[Jet Gorgon]

Well, I just got tickets to Thailand from Japan in the Japanese GoldenWeek.........normally you will have to book 6 month before to make sure to get a ticket.........I just asked last week and got 3 tickets........WOW

That is interesting. What's the take on Thailand in the Jpn press lately?