Thailand Is Down...

[onzestan]

JR Texas: I have lived in Thailand, on and off, for over 20 years.

I think people (many on this forum) have grossly underestimated the negative impact resulting from changes to the visa and business rules and regulations....especially over the past two years.

Many of my friends...good people that loved Thailand....left about 2 years ago...others more recently. Some uprooted their entire businesses and moved to places they thought were more expat/business friendly. Others are wanting to leave........but are not sure where to go next.

The idea that the rules/regulations are only affecting "poor quality fake tourists" is naive. The idea that they were only designed to address crime is also naive. The message they have sent is clear: We do not want you here. This is good for places like Vietnam, the Philippines, and China, and probably even Cambodia.

Expats and business entrepreneurs like stability......they want to feel welcome. They don't like being jerked around and treated like garbage. They don't like rule changes in the middle of the game.

There are other factors at work: too many working age people, too few quality jobs, horrendous educational system, rising tide of xenophobia, deteriorating environment, lack of press freedom, extreme economic inequality between those that own virtually everything (1%) and those that own virtually nothing (99 %), and the failure of globalization to improve the quality of life for the majority.....this is true in Thailand and elsewhere.

Its crunch time............ouch! I hope Thailand finds a solution soon.

I think you are right on the button, as far as expats and entrepreneurs are concerned.

It surprises me that nobody on this forum hinted at the bomb scare in Bangkok, the continued violence in the southern provinces. I strongly believe that tourists are consciously staying away from tourist destinations where even the slightest possibility of a terrorist attack exists, racial or religious violence, plus the fact that traveling by airplane is not the fun anymore it used to be. Heightened security regulations (unfortunately necessary) bordering on the ridiculous do put a damper on the "going for a holiday" feeling.

This combined with the fact that Thailand IS changing as many of the regulars on this forum have pointed out in other treads makes me believe that the future of the tourist industry is looking a bit bleak for the moment.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong on this one.

Onzestan

[Master of the court]

Well, I just got tickets to Thailand from Japan in the Japanese GoldenWeek.........normally you will have to book 6 month before to make sure to get a ticket.........I just asked last week and got 3 tickets........WOW

That is interesting. What's the take on Thailand in the Jpn press lately?

Biggest problem is the Baht against the Yen..............second, even 1 year ago , all stuff you can buy in turist areas are cheaper here in Japan.

Ofcourse the Bombs and the muslims have a big impact.......Japanese want security , if not they stay home......in safe Japan.

[LaoPo]

Well, I just got tickets to Thailand from Japan in the Japanese GoldenWeek.........normally you will have to book 6 month before to make sure to get a ticket.........I just asked last week and got 3 tickets........WOW

That is interesting. What's the take on Thailand in the Jpn press lately?

Biggest problem is the Baht against the Yen..............second, even 1 year ago , all stuff you can buy in turist areas are cheaper here in Japan.

Ofcourse the Bombs and the muslims have a big impact.......Japanese want security , if not they stay home......in safe Japan.

I see, that's why you got your tickets...

I was talking Europe before, sorry.

LaoPo

[Heng]

-My barber (middle range 300 Baht type shampoo and cut barber) was complaining a bit about buisness being slow this month.

-I can't really say our construction labor are any worse off, although I am hearing more stories of folks playing the underground lottery more than before (that may just be because the legal numbers game was scrapped by the current administration).

-Secured loan wise... I'd say we're seeing a general steady increase in demand, so yes, some folks are dipping into the red, but I'm not sure if I'd interpret that to mean anything in particular, as sometimes we see a sharp increase when the economy is rolling along as well.

-As for nightlife, in Bangkok anyway... Kaset-Nawamin area (the Poole, Yes Indeed, Neverland, etc.) was rather crowded as usual. That's only going out about once a week and avoiding weekends.

-Big C (near my house on Sukapibal III) and Tesco-Lotus (near my condo on Ratchada 36) are still rather overflowing and well avoided on weekends and late evenings. I wouldn't even consider dropping in to play shopping cart crash up derby unless it was n early weekday afternoon when most folks are working. Although as usual, there are an awful lot of people using credit cards to buy groceries... for myself that doesn't bode well... but then again I've seen that for years and years as well though, both here and at HEB Central Market back home in Austin.

[roblin]

I am leaving tomorrow and will no longer be spending my 100k baht/month which I have done for ~2years.

I think the government underestimate how powerful a spiral down is. Hopefully Thailand can it itself together soon.

[Master of the court]

Well, I just got tickets to Thailand from Japan in the Japanese GoldenWeek.........normally you will have to book 6 month before to make sure to get a ticket.........I just asked last week and got 3 tickets........WOW

That is interesting. What's the take on Thailand in the Jpn press lately?

Biggest problem is the Baht against the Yen..............second, even 1 year ago , all stuff you can buy in turist areas are cheaper here in Japan.

Ofcourse the Bombs and the muslims have a big impact.......Japanese want security , if not they stay home......in safe Japan.

I see, that's why you got your tickets...

WELL WELL WELL LaoPOOOOH always fast to pick on someone.......I got my tickets, because we DO like Thailand, OK ?? and for many other reasons , OK ?? NOW peace & love

I was talking Europe before, sorry.

LaoPo

[PeaceBlondie]

I have lived in Thailand, on and off, for over 20 years.

I think people (many on this forum) have grossly underestimated the negative impact resulting from changes to the visa and business rules and regulations....especially over the past two years.

Many of my friends...good people that loved Thailand....left about 2 years ago...others more recently. Some uprooted their entire businesses and moved to places they thought were more expat/business friendly. Others are wanting to leave........but are not sure where to go next.

The idea that the rules/regulations are only affecting "poor quality fake tourists" is naive. The idea that they were only designed to address crime is also naive. The message they have sent is clear: We do not want you here. This is good for places like Vietnam, the Philippines, and China, and probably even Cambodia.

Expats and business entrepreneurs like stability......they want to feel welcome. They don't like being jerked around and treated like garbage. They don't like rule changes in the middle of the game.

There are other factors at work: too many working age people, too few quality jobs, horrendous educational system, rising tide of xenophobia, deteriorating environment, lack of press freedom, extreme economic inequality between those that own virtually everything (1%) and those that own virtually nothing (99 %), and the failure of globalization to improve the quality of life for the majority.....this is true in Thailand and elsewhere.

Its crunch time............ouch! I hope Thailand finds a solution soon.

I think those are good comments, JR, among others in this discussion. The slowdown, if there is one, may be in many areas: tourists, longterm expats, and native Thais. It's a weird time to be in Thailand, and I've highlighted your phrase that may just sum it up: the clear message is that they don't want us here, and before it seemed that they pretended to want us here.

[dgoz]

I am no expert - but here is my half penny worth

A friend from Malta who before has come twice a year, this time says he is not coming again -- Pattaya dead.

Another went on a visa run to Cambodia -- people more friendly than Pattaya -- he is going there in future.

A very large Short Time Bar which before was always crowded with golfers in the afternoon -- for the last three weeks has only had three or four customers and many of the girls are saying they are going homeat the end of the month

Many rooms for rent which I cannot remember seeing in this area at theis time of year before.

A Thai owned food business -- the owner says they he is not getting the customers that he had before -- he reckons his takings down by 60% -- He wants to sell as he is unable to continue paying the rent -- Bars that four months agao were for sale at 3 million now priced at half than but still no buyers

aah, I hate to say I told you so but ........

The above comment mirrors what I've been saying (and getting flamed for) for months.

On the other hand, Cambodia and Vietnam's tourism industries are thriving, as is the inflow of foreign capital to their markets.

It's simple; Thailand has shot itself in the foot. It doesn't need Farangs?

As we know, once a place goes cold and your competitors pick up the ball and run with it (in this case VN,Cambo & Malaysia) it takes a very long time, if at all, to recover.

Edited March 31, 2007 by dgoz

[CymruAmByth]

My office is in one of the major Naughty Boy Soi's in Bangkok.

My Thai office manager and I were sitting outside having coffee one day this week and she said "...where are all the old men?"

This coming from someone who has to run the daily gauntlet of "how much?" whilst walking to the BTS to get home.

While not being an exact measure of the situation, her comment made me look around and sure enough, the population of seedy oxygen thieves does seem somewhat lower than in the previous 2 years.

[Maigo6]

I am leaving tomorrow and will no longer be spending my 100k baht/month which I have done for ~2years.

Another broke Farang bites the dust, see ya....

[CymruAmByth]

Are there half-official guestimates of how low the high tourist season was this year?

Morning PB,

I am having dinner this evening with an old friend from the UK who is Director of one of the 'big three' travel agents from the UK (prior to the Tsunami his company was sending around 11-12,000 tourists a year here).

I also sell to the hotel industry locally and will be very interested to hear what his travels around Thailand's hotels have been like this time around as this directly reflects on my own business.

I will post his informed comments on the board tomorrow sometime -- after I have sobered up -- regarding his numbers for this year.

His comments will be a true reflection of the current tourist situation.

Edited March 31, 2007 by CymruAmByth

[CymruAmByth]

I am leaving tomorrow and will no longer be spending my 100k baht/month which I have done for ~2years.

Another broke Farang bites the dust, see ya....

Does choosing to leave equate to 'biting the dust' ?

[Maigo6]

My Thai office manager and I were sitting outside having coffee one day this week and she said "...where are all the old men?"

Pattaya cos it's cheaper or Cambodia cos it's even cheaper than Pattaya. And I ain't talking about the cost of a bowl of noodles.

[Maigo6]

I am leaving tomorrow and will no longer be spending my 100k baht/month which I have done for ~2years.

Another broke Farang bites the dust, see ya....

Does choosing to leave equate to 'biting the dust' ?

I have lived in Thailand for years, and most Farangs that left Thailand did not choose to leave, they ran out of money and had to leave.

Then again, that was before the tightening of the visa regulations, so maybe things have changed.

[andook]

I am leaving tomorrow and will no longer be spending my 100k baht/month which I have done for ~2years.

Another broke Farang bites the dust, see ya....

Not exactly "biting the dust". Just going to spend his money somewhere else. Hope this helps....

[dgoz]

I am leaving tomorrow and will no longer be spending my 100k baht/month which I have done for ~2years.

Another broke Farang bites the dust, see ya....

Hardly broke, the guy spends 100k a month!

That's about 20 Thai salaries. He's obviously keeping a lot of Thais employed just by being here.

The Thais just cannot see that all these Farangs leaving (with their large bank accounts) will hurt Thailand. I knew Thais were short sighted but it's getting comical.

[Maigo6]

Biggest problem is the Baht against the Yen..............second, even 1 year ago , all stuff you can buy in turist areas are cheaper here in Japan.

Yes Master,

The Yen has dived against the Baht for sure, I remember getting 370,000 baht for 1 million Yen 3 years ago, now its 290,000 Baht per 1 Million Yen.

Maybe the Philipines attracts more Japanese now.

[donna]

i work in the hospitality industry in phuket. i can tell you that our first quarter figures were already up on last year three weeks ago. we have had an excellent high season which ran from mid dec to the end of feb. march started off strong but the last 10 days of march were a little slow, but this is the same as last year, and we are up on those figures too.

as we have a lot of australian clientele, i believe that this is due to the fact that school holidays take place for the whole of april (aprils figures are looking very healthy so far) and people dont tend to travel just before the holidays begin. there is also easter to consider - a lot of people take an extended break then, and will save up days to then rather than taking off just beforehand.

i could be wrong, but just wanted to put in my two satangs worth.

[Prakanong]

I am no expert - but here is my half penny worth

A friend from Malta who before has come twice a year, this time says he is not coming again -- Pattaya dead.

Another went on a visa run to Cambodia -- people more friendly than Pattaya -- he is going there in future.

A very large Short Time Bar which before was always crowded with golfers in the afternoon -- for the last three weeks has only had three or four customers and many of the girls are saying they are going homeat the end of the month

Many rooms for rent which I cannot remember seeing in this area at theis time of year before.

A Thai owned food business -- the owner says they he is not getting the customers that he had before -- he reckons his takings down by 60% -- He wants to sell as he is unable to continue paying the rent -- Bars that four months agao were for sale at 3 million now priced at half than but still no buyers

The last three years I have spent 3, 4 and 5 months in Thailand in that order - travelling from Europe. Now I live in Singapore and I will spend less than a month in Thailand this year.

A multitude of reasons but there are many more places to see in Asia - I have great friends and colleagues in Thailand - both Thai and farang but there seems to be just something different now about the place.

[LoveDaBlues]

I am no expert - but here is my half penny worth

A friend from Malta who before has come twice a year, this time says he is not coming again -- Pattaya dead.

Another went on a visa run to Cambodia -- people more friendly than Pattaya -- he is going there in future.

A very large Short Time Bar which before was always crowded with golfers in the afternoon -- for the last three weeks has only had three or four customers and many of the girls are saying they are going homeat the end of the month

Many rooms for rent which I cannot remember seeing in this area at theis time of year before.

A Thai owned food business -- the owner says they he is not getting the customers that he had before -- he reckons his takings down by 60% -- He wants to sell as he is unable to continue paying the rent -- Bars that four months agao were for sale at 3 million now priced at half than but still no buyers

aah, I hate to say I told you so but ........

The above comment mirrors what I've been saying (and getting flamed for) for months.

On the other hand, Cambodia and Vietnam's tourism industries are thriving, as is the inflow of foreign capital to their markets.

It's simple; Thailand has shot itself in the foot. It doesn't need Farangs?

As we know, once a place goes cold and your competitors pick up the ball and run with it (in this case VN,Cambo & Malaysia) it takes a very long time, if at all, to recover.

Told us what? That you can't hack it in Thailand? What do you think will happen in VN and Cambodia once the locals get fed up with the 'Ugly' Americans, Brits, Germans,Aussies, etc........the Cambodian smiles will disappear just as they have here in many places. There will come a day when expats will flock 'back' to Thailand because of the unfriendly Cambodian locals.......everything cycles. Meanwhile, I'll still be here.....in RURAL Thailand.....the real Thailand.

[kratindaeng]

I have just looked at my mail -- Who wants to come to Thailand after reading this?????????

The is the advise from the UK Foriegn Office for prospective travelers to Thailand

* We advise against all but essential travel to, or through, the far southern provinces of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and Songkhla, where there is continuing violence due to insurgency and civil unrest. Since January 2004, there have been regular attacks including bombings and shootings. Most recently, on 18 and 19 February 31 bombs exploded in the far southern provinces. The Thai Government has declared a serious state of emergency in the provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat.

* There is a high threat from terrorism throughout Thailand. Attacks could be indiscriminate and against civilian targets in public places including places frequented by foreigners.

* On 31 December 2006, eight bombs exploded in various locations in Bangkok, killing three people and injuring at least 36 others including six foreigners. On 23 February 2007, the Thai authorities warned that there could be further attacks in Bangkok, which could happen at any time and they have strengthened security in the city. You should exercise caution when travelling within Bangkok.

* Chiang Mai and much of the upper north have been affected by a thick haze since early March 2007. The Pollution Control Department of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment report that air pollution levels have exceeded the minimum standards for a number of days, and that hazardous levels have been reported in places. Please see "Health" for further information.

* On 19 September 2006, there was a coup against the Thai civilian government and martial law was imposed throughout the country. An interim Prime Minister was appointed on 1 October 2006 and on 26 January 2007 martial law was lifted in 41 (of the total of 76) provinces, including Bangkok. There remains a risk of further political instability in Thailand. You are advised to avoid any demonstrations and large crowds.

* Penalties for possession, distribution or manufacture of drugs are severe and can include the death penalty.

* Outbreaks of Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) in Thailand have resulted in a small number of human fatalities. As a precaution, you should avoid live animal markets, poultry farms and other places where you may come into close contact with domestic, caged or wild birds; and ensure poultry and egg dishes are thoroughly cooked. For further information see Health section below and also read the FCO's Avian and Pandemic Influenza Factsheet.

* Around 750,000 British tourists visit Thailand every year. The main types of incident for which British nationals require consular assistance in Thailand are arrests (mostly drug related); hospital cases (especially road accidents); and deaths, mostly from natural causes and road accidents. The majority of consular cases occur in Bangkok, Pattaya and Koh Samui.

* We strongly recommend that you obtain comprehensive travel and medical insurance before travelling. You should check any exclusions, and that your policy covers you for the activities you want to undertake. Please see: Travel Insurance.

"Mai bpen rai!"

KD

[Tornado]

I am no expert - but here is my half penny worth

A friend from Malta who before has come twice a year, this time says he is not coming again -- Pattaya dead.

Another went on a visa run to Cambodia -- people more friendly than Pattaya -- he is going there in future.

A very large Short Time Bar which before was always crowded with golfers in the afternoon -- for the last three weeks has only had three or four customers and many of the girls are saying they are going homeat the end of the month

Many rooms for rent which I cannot remember seeing in this area at theis time of year before.

A Thai owned food business -- the owner says they he is not getting the customers that he had before -- he reckons his takings down by 60% -- He wants to sell as he is unable to continue paying the rent -- Bars that four months agao were for sale at 3 million now priced at half than but still no buyers

It is just the time of the year, its Songkran and rice planting time - it happens every year.

I think its all just because of the time of the year. Thais do not buy cars or plan major business, due to Songkran, you will find that the Thais side will be back and running after the festivities.

In my experience, March is always a little slow on the foreign side, New Years is over, the Kids just went back to school, the business plans for the year are being developed etc, people dont travel as much in this month. I personally dont think there will be a down town in holiday makers, but Thai expats trying to survive here is another matter.

Ive made a decision to go to the USA for 6 months after my house is built in Nakhon, to start a new business. I would of loved to have done it here, but with all these enforcements/changes I couldn't be bothered. My lawyer told me yesterday that all foreign companies can only have one work permit (coming soon) - well thats no help to anyone. I like Thailand, but I dont love it, like I used to.

I will be coming back to live rurally though, once the business takes off.

I wish I never started a business in this country and just lived here, I think I would feel a lot better about Thai's in general and wouldnt have aged so much in the 10 years Ive been here. oh well!

[JR Texas]

I am no expert - but here is my half penny worth

A friend from Malta who before has come twice a year, this time says he is not coming again -- Pattaya dead.

Another went on a visa run to Cambodia -- people more friendly than Pattaya -- he is going there in future.

A very large Short Time Bar which before was always crowded with golfers in the afternoon -- for the last three weeks has only had three or four customers and many of the girls are saying they are going homeat the end of the month

Many rooms for rent which I cannot remember seeing in this area at theis time of year before.

A Thai owned food business -- the owner says they he is not getting the customers that he had before -- he reckons his takings down by 60% -- He wants to sell as he is unable to continue paying the rent -- Bars that four months agao were for sale at 3 million now priced at half than but still no buyers

aah, I hate to say I told you so but ........

The above comment mirrors what I've been saying (and getting flamed for) for months.

On the other hand, Cambodia and Vietnam's tourism industries are thriving, as is the inflow of foreign capital to their markets.

It's simple; Thailand has shot itself in the foot. It doesn't need Farangs?

As we know, once a place goes cold and your competitors pick up the ball and run with it (in this case VN,Cambo & Malaysia) it takes a very long time, if at all, to recover.

Told us what? That you can't hack it in Thailand? What do you think will happen in VN and Cambodia once the locals get fed up with the 'Ugly' Americans, Brits, Germans,Aussies, etc........the Cambodian smiles will disappear just as they have here in many places. There will come a day when expats will flock 'back' to Thailand because of the unfriendly Cambodian locals.......everything cycles. Meanwhile, I'll still be here.....in RURAL Thailand.....the real Thailand.

JR Texas: "Told us what?" That problems were coming as a result of the visa rules and regulations changes.....major ones.

Many people have tried to point this out over the past year and most have been slammed by the majority of posters.........who embraced the party line that the rule changes only impact criminals and the "non quality human beings" (I hate that phrase, but we know who used it).

The bar on visa rules has been raised one too many times............because of that, thinking people have started embracing the belief that they could be next.

The anti-business rules and regulations are just too much to accept and state in big letters: small scale entrepreneurs are not wanted.

Apparently even the big players are getting the message....millions of investment dollars are currently moving to places like Vietnam and China. Even hai investors are pulling up stakes and putting their money in Vietnam.

The situation is volatile and could get worse before it gets better. It is too bad, because all of the problems mentioned by all of the people on this thread are totally preventable.

[Maigo6]

Meanwhile, I'll still be here.....in RURAL Thailand.....the real Thailand.

Thailand is a good place to live, but places like Pattaya have deteriorated to the point of only being a destination for a certain type of 'Tourist'.

The sea is dirty, the crime is rampant, traffic conditions are bad, even the police wear masks to protect against the air pollution. Rather odd for an international beach resort I think.

Thank god for Rural Thailand, as long as one has a Car to run to Pattaya for a few days every now and then.....

[ovenman]

My lawyer told me yesterday that all foreign companies can only have one work permit (coming soon)

There's a future thread with 20000+ views in the making...

[jdinasia]

Meanwhile, I'll still be here.....in RURAL Thailand.....the real Thailand.

Thailand is a good place to live, but places like Pattaya have deteriorated to the point of only being a destination for a certain type of 'Tourist'.

The sea is dirty, the crime is rampant, traffic conditions are bad, even the police wear masks to protect against the air pollution. Rather odd for an international beach resort I think.

Thank god for Rural Thailand, as long as one has a Car to run to Pattaya for a few days every now and then.....

Honey ... you are a bit fixated ....... kinda sad

[jasreeve17]

Well, I just got tickets to Thailand from Japan in the Japanese GoldenWeek.........normally you will have to book 6 month before to make sure to get a ticket.........I just asked last week and got 3 tickets........WOW

That is interesting. What's the take on Thailand in the Jpn press lately?

I used to have quite a few Japanese friends in Bangkok - they have all left. Their companies down-sized and they went to work in India.

I'm not suggesting that all the Japanese have left, but many have. They were telling me two years ago that India was the next big expanaion area for the Japanese. - Not all, of course.

JRTexas makes many valid points, I think.

It's a slowdown, at the least. Probably due to combined reasons.

[jasreeve17]

I am leaving tomorrow and will no longer be spending my 100k baht/month which I have done for ~2years.

I think the government underestimate how powerful a spiral down is. Hopefully Thailand can it itself together soon.

When such a downward spiral starts, it does tend to pick up pace and become self sustaining / multiplying (lack of confidense / visibility / etc).

So, it is a bit worrying. Let's hope that things pick up soon...

[jasreeve17]

I am leaving tomorrow and will no longer be spending my 100k baht/month which I have done for ~2years.

Another broke Farang bites the dust, see ya....

Childish comments are needed on this thread, thank you.

[Toni]

Just like to add a couple of points.

Here in Phuket the usual lively bars and clubs are quieter. I'm talking about Phuket Town and not Patong by the way. This is including places where I often don't see many foreigners drink.

Having spoken to some Thai friends they have said that people simply don't have as much spending money as they did before? I guess that any downturn in tourism would be felt by a lot of people in Phuket.

Interesting point.

If the Thais are struggling, and the Thai economy is on a slow down, then the lack of every tourist / foreigner / money spender will be felt harder.

and the Thais ARE struggling! Now since exactly 1/2 year our local and Thai directed restaurant is suffering enormously whilst before that time we had never problems. Seems that the locals don't have (enough) money anymore or are afraid to spend it. We have heard from insiders that several restaurants has been closed. Our other business: down; interest in the product yes, but no money.

Local shopping mall lots of times almost empty; shops closing. Thai entrepreneurs there are confirming that turnover went down. Some are also considering to wait a bit longer but when no improve: pulling out.

I have been in two IT-malls: surprisingly empty; also shops closing.